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At least 469 records · Page 26

A two-step short-term probabilistic wind forecasting methodology based on predictive distribution optimization

With increasing wind penetrations into electric power systems, probabilistic wind forecasting becomes more critical to power system operations because of its capability of quantifying wind uncertainties. In this paper, a two-step probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is developed. First, a multimodel machine learning-based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework is adopted to generate deterministic forecasts. The deterministic forecast is assumed to be the mean value of the predictive distribution at each forecasting time stamp. Then, the optimal unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of the predictive distribution is estimated by a support vector regression surrogate model based on the deterministic forecasts. Lastly, probabilistic forecasts are generated from the predictive distribution. Numerical results of case studies at eight locations show that the developed two-step probabilistic forecasting methodology has improved the pinball loss metric score by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Augmenting machine learning of energy landscapes with local structural information

We present a machine learning approach for accurately predicting formation energies of binary compounds in the context of crystal structure predictions. The success of any machine learning model depends significantly on the choice of representation used to encode the relevant physical information into machine-learnable data. We test different representation schemes based on partial radial and angular distribution functions (RDF+ADF) on Al–Ni and Cd–Te structures generated using our genetic algorithm for structure prediction. We observe a remarkable improvement in predictive accuracy upon transitioning from global to atom-centered representations, resulting in a threefold decrease in prediction errors. We show that a support vector regression model using a combination of atomic radial and angular distribution functions performs best at the formation energy prediction task, providing small root mean squared errors of 3.9 meV/atom and 10.9 meV/atom for Al–Ni and Cd–Te, respectively. We test the performance of our models against common traditional descriptors and find that RDF- and ADF-based representations significantly outperform many of those in the prediction of formation energies. The high accuracy of predictions makes our machine learning models great candidates for the exploration of energy landscapes.

Honrao, Shreyas J. (ORCID:0000000166155257)↗

A Machine Learning Based System Performance Prediction Model for Transportable FHR

A machine learning based system performance prediction model is currently created to support the development of autonomous control for small reactors, such as the Transportable Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (TFHR), which has a 20 MWth compact core proposed by MIT for remote sites. The prediction model is constructed using support vector regression (SVR) with training data generated by RELAP5. A particle filtering framework is utilized to estimate and update model parameters with instrument measurements. Verifications of the prediction and filtering models have been carried out using TFHR reactivity insertion cases. Satisfactory performance in predicting the core behavior and in recognizing the inserted reactivity rate is concluded. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Short-Term Distribution System State Forecast Based on Optimal Synchrophasor Sensor Placement and Extreme Learning Machine

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system state forecasting, which aims to provide an accurate and high speed state forecasting with an optimal synchrophasor sensor placement (OSSP) based state estimator and an extreme learning machine (ELM) based forecaster. Specifically, considering the sensor installation cost and measurement error, an OSSP algorithm is proposed to reduce the number of synchrophasor sensor and keep the whole distribution system numerically and topologically observable. Then, the weighted least square (WLS) based system state estimator is used to produce the training data for the proposed forecaster. Traditionally, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) are widely used in forecasting due to their nonlinear modeling capabilities. However, the ANN contains heavy computation load and the best parameters for SVR are difficult to obtain. In this paper, the ELM, which overcomes these drawbacks, is used to forecast the future system states with the historical system states. The proposed approach is effective and accurate based on the testing results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗

Predicting U.S. federal fleet electric vehicle charging patterns using internal combustion engine vehicle fueling transaction statistics

Utilizing fueling transactions from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the authors estimated how frequently midday public charging would be required for U.S. federal fleet battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Fueling transaction summary statistics are more widely available than trip-level telematics data, making this methodology more accessible and transferable to other researchers and fleet managers considering BEV replacements. For example, readers can easily apply a linear model using only the count of back-to-back fueling events at gas stations over 57 straight-line miles apart to predict days exceeding range. This linear regression predicted binned days exceeding 250 miles at 80% accuracy on a hold-out test set from the same fleet as the training data and 66 % accuracy on a new fleet displaying different driving behaviors. The authors additionally provide linear equations for days exceeding 200 and 300 miles as alternative range estimates to account for differences in BEV range and temperature impacts. Beyond the single-feature linear models which readers can apply, the authors tuned and trained other machine learning models on a variety of fueling transaction statistics including consecutive transaction distances, transaction distance from garage, estimated miles traveled from fuel economy and fuel quantity, and transaction periodicity. Utilizing a subset of 1678 light-duty federal fleet vehicles which contained daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in addition to fueling statistics, the authors determined which fueling transaction statistics were most relevant in predicting driving days exceeding 250 miles (an approximation of BEV rated driving range). In support of the U.S. federal fleet transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), the authors used these statistics and machine learning models to predict the frequency of BEV midday charging. After training models on the subset with VMT, the authors predicted days exceeding rated range for 112,902 light-duty vehicles operating in similar circumstances in the federal fleet using a Support Vector Regressor (SVR). In conclusion, they then used the projections as part of the ZEV Planning and Charging (ZPAC) tool to identify optimal candidates for BEVs for the federal fleet. An anonymized version of ZPAC is included in the supplementary materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

Artificial Intelligence for Digital Security and Protections

Proper functioning of nuclear power plants relies on a mix of well-regulated human and machine-driven workflows. This regulation supports nuclear safety through a series of processes and many of the tasks that support these processes have a repetitive nature that make artificial intelligence (AI) informed by machine learning (ML) a potential aid in a variety of tasks. AI is being evaluated for activities that include inspections, fuel processing, monitoring, and other activities. The introduction of any new technology presents a potential new attack vector. In the case of AI/ML, there are many attacks that have already been discovered and over time the attacks can be expected to follow the growth pattern observed in cyber security. While future planning is necessary, current efforts need to be established now to predict the threat emergence over the next year 10 years and mitigate potential threats. Based on these observations, AI/ML will need to become trustworthy, which corresponds to techniques and procedures that emphasize AI explainability along with resilience techniques to data, algorithms, models, and systems. This kind of system robustness is the foundation for defenses against AI/ML-specific attacks. Attempting to look forward and take a broad view of capabilities provides input to research roadmaps and the ability to distill vulnerabilities into specific use cases may provide greater assistance in understanding the technology benefits while introducing new risks. The impact of current and future AI in three areas—capabilities, challenges, and recovery strategies—represents an initial attempt at balancing both.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Automated and High-Throughput Phase Separation Control for Supramolecular Polymer Blends Enabled by Machine Learning

Supramolecular polymer blends (SPBs) offer tunable morphologies that dictate their macroscopic properties, yet their rational design is limited by the absence of predictive structure−morphology models. Here, we introduce a data-driven highthroughput workflow that integrates modular polymer synthesis, robotic formulation, automated morphology characterization, and machine learning (ML) for accelerated SPB discovery. Using a plug-and-play synthetic strategy, 33 hydrogen-bonding endfunctional homopolymers were prepared and orthogonally combined to generate 260 SPBs in 1 day. A fully automated atomic force microscopy (AFM) pipeline enabled systematic imaging, producing 2340 morphology data sets with minimal human intervention. Domain spacings were extracted through complementary imageprocessing methods and used to train ML models. A support vector regression (SVR) model accurately predicted target phase-separation sizes (50, 100, and 150 nm), which were experimentally validated. This work demonstrates the power of coupling high-throughput experimentation with ML to accelerate morphology discovery and provides one of the first large-scale experimental data sets for supramolecular polymer systems.

ML-guided polymer design↗

Machine Learning Optimization of p-Type Transparent Conducting Films

p-Type transparent conducting materials (p-TCMs) are important components of optoelectronic devices including solar cells, photodetectors, displays, and flexible sensors. Cu–Zn–S thin films prepared by chemical bath deposition (CBD) can have both high transparency in the visible range (>80%) as well as excellent hole conductivity (>1000 S cm –1 ). However, the interplay between the deposition parameters in the CBD process (metal and sulfur precursor concentrations, temperature, pH, complexing agents, etc.) creates a multidimensional parameter space such that optimization for a specific application is challenging and time-consuming. Here we show that strategic design of experiment combined with machine learning (ML) allows for the efficient optimization of p-TCM performance. The approach is guided by a figure of merit (FOM) calculated from the film conductivity and optical transmission in the desired spectral range. A specific example is shown using two steps of optimization using a selected subset of four experimental CBD factors. The ML model is based on support vector regression employing a radial basis function as the kernel function. 10-fold cross-validation was performed to mitigate overfitting. After the first round of optimization, predicted areas in the parameter space with maximal FOMs were selected for a second round of optimization. Films with optimal FOMs were incorporated into heterojunction solar cells and transparent photodiodes. Here, the optimization approach shown here will be generally applicable to any materials synthesis process with multiple parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013 was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Machine Learning (ML) Classifier to Assist Metadata Creation

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center is responsible for the timely collection, archival, and curation of science data products. These products are freely available through an online data repository. Metadata creation is paramount for scientific users to find and access over seven petabytes of atmospheric science data. The hierarchical metadata structure allows users to search for information at both broad and narrow levels. This project aims to leverage 30 years’ worth of manually created metadata to enable machine predictions of broad-term classifications from narrow-term descriptions. These classification predictions would assist metadata coordinators with their term selections. This paper discusses the cleaning and preprocessing of the training data, the pipeline developed to determine the best model for this task, and the creation of an API metadata classifier for ARM measurement metadata. Our results show that the Linear Support Vector Classification (LinearSVC) algorithm, along with the Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectorizer, is well-suited for our multi-class classification task. Lengthier input training data led to better results, and artificial balancing was unnecessary for this particular use case. This predictive classifier enhances efficiency in metadata creation, as well as supports greater consistency and accuracy in metadata tagging.

Collier, Hannah [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341284292)↗

Quantifying Leaf Chlorophyll Concentration of Sorghum from Hyperspectral Data Using Derivative Calculus and Machine Learning

Leaf chlorophyll concentration (LCC) is an important indicator of plant health, vigor, physiological status, productivity, and nutrient deficiencies. Hyperspectral spectroscopy at leaf level has been widely used to estimate LCC accurately and non-destructively. This study utilized leaf-level hyperspectral data with derivative calculus and machine learning to estimate LCC of sorghum. We calculated fractional derivative (FD) orders starting from 0.2 to 2.0 with 0.2 order increments. Additionally, 43 common vegetation indices (VIs) were calculated from leaf spectral reflectance factor to make comparisons with reflectance-based data. Within the modeling pipeline, three feature selection methods were assessed: Pearson’s correlation coefficient (PCC), partial least squares based variable importance in the projection (VIP), and random forest-based mean decrease impurity (MDI). Finally, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme learning regression (ELR) to estimate the LCC of sorghum. Results showed that: (1) increasing derivative order can show improved model performance until certain order for reflectance-based analysis; however, it is inconclusive to state that a particular order is optimal for estimating LCC of sorghum; (2) VI-based modeling outperformed derivative augmented reflectance factor-based modeling; (3) mean decrease impurity was found effective in selecting sensitive features from large feature space (reflectance-based analysis), whereas simple Pearson’s correlation coefficient worked better with smaller feature space (VI-based analysis); and (4) SVR outperformed all other models within reflectance-based analysis; alternatively, ELR with VIs from original reflectance yielded slightly better results compared to all other models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

CERES: CRISPR Engineering for the Rapid Enhancement of Strains

Previous strain development efforts for cyanobacteria have failed to achieve the necessary productivities needed to support economic biofuel production. We proposed to develop CRISPR Engineering for Rapid Enhancement of Strains (CERES). We developed genetic and computational tools to enable future high-throughput screening of CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) libraries in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002, including: (1) Operon- SEQer: an ensemble of algorithms for predicting operon pairs using RNA-seq data, (2) experimental characterization and machine learning prediction of gRNA design rules for CRISPRi, and (3) a shuttle vector for gene expression. These tools lay the foundation for CRISPR library screening to develop cyanobacterial strains that are optimized for growth or metabolite production under a wide range of environmental conditions. The optimization of cyanobacterial strains will directly advance U.S. energy and climate security by enabling domestic biofuel production while simultaneously mitigating atmospheric greenhouse gases through photoautotrophic fixation of carbon dioxide.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗