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NASA NTRS2018

Retrieval of H2O Abundance in Titan's Stratosphere: A (Re)Analysis of CIRS/Cassini and PACS/Herschel Observations

Since its first measurement 20 years ago by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), the water (H2O) mole fraction in Titan’s stratosphere remains uncertain due to large differences between the determinations from available measurements. More particularly, the recent measurements made from the Herschel observatory (PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and HIFI (Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared)) estimated the H2O mole fraction to be 0.023 parts per billion at 12.1 millibars. A mixing ratio of 0.14 parts per billion at 10.7 millibars was, however, retrieved from nadir spatially-resolved observations of Cassini/CIRS (Composite Infrared Spectrometer). At the same pressure level (10.7 millibars), this makes a difference of a factor of 5.5 between PACS and CIRS measurements, and this has notably prevented current models from fully constraining the oxygen flux flowing into Titan’s atmosphere. In this work, we try to understand the differences between the H2O mole fractions estimated from Herschel/PACS and Cassini/CIRS observations. The strategy for this is to 1) analyse recent disc-averaged observations of CIRS to investigate if the observation geometry could explain the previous observed differences, and 2) (re)analyse the three types of observation with the same retrieval scheme to assess if previous differences in retrieval codes/methodology could be responsible for the previous discrepancies. With this analysis, we show that using the same retrieval method better reconcile the previous measurements of these instruments. However, the addition of the disc-averaged CIRS observations, instead of confirming the consistency between the different datasets, reveals discrepancies between one of the CIRS disc-averaged set of observations and PACS measurements. This raises new questions regarding the possibility of latitudinal variations of H2O, which could be triggered by seasonal changes of the meridional circulation. As it has already been shown for nitriles and hydrocarbons, this circulation could potentially impact the latitudinal distribution of H2O through the subsidence or up- welling of air rich in H2O. The possible influence of spatial/time variations of the OH/H2O input flux in Titan’s atmosphere is also discussed. The analysis of more observations will be needed in future work to address the questions arising from this work and to improve the understanding of the sources of H2O in Titan’s atmosphere.

Bauduin, S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Changing Circulation Structure and Precipitation Characteristics in Asian Monsoon Regions: Greenhouse Warming vs. Aerosol Effects

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870's to present. During the same period, a mid tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS) [Lau and Kim, 2015]. The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellar overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Rainfall characteristics analyses indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Asian monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Evolution of Saturn's Polar Temperatures and Composition

The seasonal evolution of Saturn's polar atmospheric temperatures and hydrocarbon composition is derived from a decade of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) 7-16 micrometers thermal infrared spectroscopy. We construct a near-continuous record of atmospheric variability poleward of 60 deg from northern winter/southern summer (2004, Ls = 293 deg) through the equinox (2009, Ls= 0 deg) to northern spring/southern autumn (2014, Ls = 56 deg). The hot tropospheric polar cyclones that are entrained by pro-grade jets within 2-3 deg of each pole, and the hexagonal shape of the north polar belt, are both persistent features throughout the decade of observations. The hexagon vertices rotated westward by approx. equal to 30 deg longitude between March 2007 and April 2013, confirming that they are not stationary in the Voyager-defined System III longitude system as previously thought. Tropospheric temperature contrasts between the cool polar zones (near 80-85 deg) and warm polar belts (near 75-80 deg) have varied in both hemispheres, resulting in changes to the vertical wind shear on the zonal jets in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The extended region of south polar stratospheric emission has cooled dramatically poleward of the sharp temperature gradient near 75 deg S (by approximately -5 K/yr), coinciding with a depletion in the abundances of acetylene (0030 +/- 0.005 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.35 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr), and suggestive of stratospheric upwelling with vertical wind speeds of w approx. equal to +0.1 mm/s. The upwelling appears most intense within 5 deg latitude of the south pole. This is mirrored by a general warming of the northern polar stratosphere (+5 K/yr) and an enhancement in acetylene (0.030 +/- 0.003 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.45 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr) abundances that appears to be most intense poleward of 75 deg N, suggesting subsidence at w approx. equal to -0.15 mm/ s. However, the sharp gradient in stratospheric emission expected to form near 75 deg N by northern summer solstice (2017, Ls = 90 deg) has not yet been observed, so we continue to await the development of a northern summer stratospheric vortex. The peak stratospheric warming in the north occurs at lower pressure levels (p less than 1 mbar) than the peak stratospheric cooling in the south (p greater than 1 mbar). Vertical motions are derived from both the temperature field (using the measured rates of temperature change and the deviations from the expectations of radiative equilibrium models) and hydrocarbon distributions (solving the continuity equation). Vertical velocities tend towards zero in the upper troposphere where seasonal temperature contrasts are smaller, except within the tropospheric polar cyclones where w approx. equal to +0.02 mm/s. North polar minima in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures were detected in 2008-2010 (lagging one season, or 6-8 years, behind winter solstice); south polar maxima appear to have occurred before the start of the Cassini observations (1-2 years after summer solstice), consistent with the expectations of radiative climate models. The influence of dynamics implies that the coldest winter temperatures occur in the 75-80 deg region in the stratosphere, and in the cool polar zones in the troposphere, rather than at the poles themselves. In addition to vertical motions, we propose that the UV-absorbent polar stratospheric aerosols entrained within Saturn's vortices contribute significantly to the radiative budget at the poles, adding to the localized enhancement in the south polar cooling and north polar warming poleward of +/-75 deg.

polar temperatures↗
NASA NTRS2018

Thermal Emission From Saturn's Polar Cyclones

We have used data from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer to map the temperatures in Saturn's polar cyclones at the highest spatial resolution obtained during the Cassini mission. We find temperature contrasts of 7 K in the upper troposphere within 1.4° of both poles, roughly 50 percent larger than earlier measurements at lower spatial resolution. The polar hot spots weaken with depth, disappearing near 500 mbar. In the stratosphere, the polar hot spot becomes broader, extending 4° from the poles, and weakens with altitude disappearing near 1 mbar. A thermal relaxation model shows that the tropospheric hot spot is consistent with adiabatic heating from subsidence with a vertical velocity of about −0.05 mm/s above 500 mbar. The observed temperature gradients imply that the winds in the polar cyclone decay with increasing altitude over roughly three pressure scale heights above the 200‐mbar level.

Polar↗
NASA NTRS2017

On the Dependence of Cloud Feedbacks on Physical Parameterizations in WRF Aquaplanet Simulations

We investigate the effects of physical parameterizations on cloud feedback uncertainty in response to climate change. For this purpose, we construct an ensemble of eight aquaplanet simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each WRF‐derived simulation, we replace only one parameterization at a time while all other parameters remain identical. By doing so, we aim to (i) reproduce cloud feedback uncertainty from state‐of‐the‐art climate models and (ii) understand how parametrizations impact cloud feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that this ensemble of WRF simulations, which differ only in physical parameterizations, replicates the range of cloud feedback uncertainty found in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We show that microphysics and convective parameterizations govern the magnitude and sign of cloud feedbacks, mostly due to tropical low‐level clouds in subsidence regimes. Finally, this study highlights the advantages of using WRF to analyze cloud feedback mechanisms owing to its plug‐and‐play parameterization capability.

Cesana, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impacts of Snow Darkening Effects by Light Absorbing Aerosols on Hydroclimate of Eurasia During Boreal Spring and Summer

In this study, we used the NASA GEOS-5 climate model to investigate the impact of snow darkening by light-absorbing aerosols on the hydro-climate if Eurasia during boreal spring and summer. Two sets of 10-member ensemble model integrations with prescribed sea surface temperature were carried out for 10 simulated years (2002-2011); one includes snow-darkening effects (SDE) by light-absorbing aerosols, and one does not (NSDE). Differences between the two experiments in the hydro-climates over Eurasia were evaluated. Results show that SDE warming is most pronounced during the melting season due to strong snow-albedo feedback in the vicinity of the retreating seasonal snowline. SDE spurs a Wet-First-Dry-Later (WFDL) modulation of the surface energy and water balances, characterized by an accelerated (days-to-weeks) snowmelt along with excessive runoff and a warming and wetting of the land during the early part of the melting season. The fast snowmelt is followed by a prolonged (> months) warming and desiccation of the land, stemming from a deficit of late-season snowmelt water and increased surface evaporation. The prolonged warming and drying of the land atmosphere system persist through the summer, sustained by atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of atmospheric blocking, i.e., higher mid-to-upper tropospheric geopotential height, lower relative humidity, reduced cloudiness and enhanced atmospheric subsidence. Overall, SDE by light absorbing aerosols leads to a warmer and drier boreal summer hydro-climate, increasing the frequency of the top 5% and 1% extreme hot days (as defined by NSDE statistics) over western and northern Eurasia by approximately three-fold and tenfold, respectively.

Snow darkening↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: First Results from the ORACLES-2016 Deployment and Plans for Future Activities

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earths biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and may mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for regional and global climate change predictions.Our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in the SE Atlantic is severely limited. Most notably, we are missing knowledge on the absorptive and cloud nucleating properties of aerosols, including their vertical distribution relative to clouds, on the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, on the processes that govern cloud property adjustments, and on the importance of aerosol effects on clouds relative to co-varying synoptic scale meteorology.We describe first results from various synergistic, international research activities aimed at studying aerosol-cloud interactions in the region:NASAs airborne ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols Above Clouds and Their IntEractionS) deployment in AugustSeptember of 2016,the DoEs LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility to Ascension Island (June 2016 October 2017), the ground-based components of CNRS AEROCLO-sA (Aerosols Clouds and Fog over the west coast of southern Africa), and ongoing regional-scale integrative, process-oriented science efforts as part of SEALS-sA (Sea Earth Atmosphere Linkages Study in southern Africa).We expect to describe experimental setups as well as showcase initial aerosol and cloud property distributions. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of future activities in these programs in coordination with the UK Met Offices CLARIFY (CLoud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing) experiment in 2017.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Retrieval of Daily Maps of PM2.5 Aerosol in the Problematic California Valleys: Bright, Speckled Reflectances, Thin AOT, but High Pollution

The San Joaquin Valley suffers from severe episodes of respirable aerosol (PM2.5) in wintertime.We provide maps of aerosol episodes using daily snapshots of PM2.5 and its changing features despite numerous difficulties inherent to sampling the region. Linear relationships relating aerosol optical thickness (AOT) to PM2.5 give an explained variance of approximately 3.The GEO-CAPE mission has as a goal the provision of relevant measures of respirable aerosol to the community,but has not formulated a science goal beyond the limited goal of retrieval of AOT, bringing the usefulness of GEO-CAPE into doubt.Our special focus was on the DISCOVER-AQ period, Jan-Feb 2013, which had many supporting measurements.Both high pollution and retrieval difficulties tend to occur in many Mediterranean agricultural regions like the San Joauin. One difficulty is the relatively bright surfaces with considerable exposed soil. NASAs MAIAC and MODIS Deep Blue retrieval techniques are shown to have considerable skill even at low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) values, as evaluated by concurrent AERONET sunphotometer measurements.More significantly, these AOT values can correspond to high daytime PM2.5 since aerosol mixed layer depth is thin and variable, 200m 600 m. The thin layers derive from typical subsidence of dry air between more stormy periods. This situation provides an advantage: water vapor column is also almost completely limited to a similar mixed layer depth, and can thus serve as a measure of aerosol dilution.Using the MAIAC Water Vapor Column:In order to make the maps below, we used the MAIAC data but subtracted partial water-vapor columns estimated from MERRA Reanalysis Data availabe from the GSFC GMAO using kriging. We did not use the mixed-layer estimates from MERRA, since such analyses were found problematic during our forecasting exercises for DISCOVER-AQ. Observations from the aircraft soundings suggested that this overlying moisture was mostly due to larger scale flows, not ML venting.However, the specific humidity at the surface and a nearly well-mixed ML was analyzed by kriging from the surface network (MesoWest, University of Utah). These were thought to be truer, uninfluenced by physical process modeling that combines with data observations. (TBD: How different are they?) Procedure: Subtract overlying partial water columns from MAIAC column water and divide this by a surface value of water vapor. (MAIAC column is expressed in cm of water, i.e., water vapor at surface conditions.This method appears to bring out useful details in the distribution of submicron particles in the very problematic Wintertime San Joaquin Valley, and allow analysis of pollution episodes throughout the valley, rather than long-term averages.

san joaquin valley↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Automated Detection Methodology for Dry Well-Mixed Layers

The intense surface heating over arid land surfaces produces dry well-mixed layers (WML) via dry convection. These layers are characterized by nearly constant potential temperature and low, nearly constant water vapor mixing ratio. To further the study of dry WMLs, we created a detection methodology and supporting software to automate the identification and characterization of dry WMLs from multiple data sources including rawinsondes, remote sensing platforms, and model products. The software is a modular code written in Python, an open source language. Radiosondes from a network of synoptic stations in North Africa were used to develop and test the WML detection process. The detection involves an iterative decision tree that ingests a vertical profile from an input data file, performs a quality check for sufficient data density, and then searches upward through the column for successive points where the simultaneous changes in water vapor mixing ratio and potential temperature are less than the specified maxima. If points in the vertical profile meet the dry WML identification criteria, statistics are generated detailing the characteristics of each layer in the profile. At the end of the vertical profile analysis, there is an option to plot analyzed profiles in a variety of file formats. Initial results show that the detection methodology can be successfully applied across a wide variety of input data and North African environments and for all seasons. It is sensitive enough to identify dry WMLs from other types of isentropic phenomena such as subsidence layers and distinguish the current day’s dry WML from previous days.

Stephen D. Nicholls↗
NASA NTRS2018

P43K-3884 Characterizing Martian Crater Circulations with the NASA Ames Mars GCM

Observations made in Gale Crater by instruments on the MSL Curiosity Rover show that the diurnal amplitude of the surface pressure is increased and the depth of the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) is decreased relative to other lander locations on flatter regions of Mars (Haberle et al., 2014; Moores et al., 2015). Mesoscale modeling studies of Gale Crater suggest that crater circulations produce these effects. Tyler & Barnes (2013) show that local upslope/downslope flows along the crater rim and Mt. Sharp amplify the diurnal pressure cycle. These same flows are thought to be at least partly responsible for the suppression of the CBL because upward air flow at the rim and in the center (due to Mt. Sharp) forces subsidence over the lowest regions of the crater during the day. Regional flows, largely due to the location of Gale near the dichotomy boundary, may also play a role in shaping the circulation internal to the crater. Whether the behavior of the CBL and the amplified diurnal pressure cycle are phenomena observed in craters morphologically different from Gale (i.e. bowl-shaped, irregular, degraded) is not yet understood. We will explore these questions by characterizing the behavior of these processes as they are shaped by the morphology of craters greater than 100 km in diameter. We use the NASA Ames Mars Global Circulation Model (GCM) that now utilizes the NOAA/GFDL cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core to examine ~100 craters of varying size and shape from a database of known Martian craters (Robbins & Hynek, 2014). Run at 7.5 km resolution, the GCM is capable of resolving surface winds, temperature, and pressure inside craters of this size allowing for the analysis of dozens of craters simulated at various seasons and within the context of synoptic and global-scale phenomena.

Batterson, Courtney MaryLou↗
NASA NTRS2018

Abundance Measurements of Titan's Stratospheric HCN, HC3N, C3H4, and CH3CN from ALMA Observations

Previous investigations have employed more than 100 close observations of Titan by the Cassini orbiter to elucidate connections between the production and distribution of Titan's vast, organic-rich chemical inventory and its atmospheric dynamics. However, as Titan transitions into northern summer, the lack of incoming data from the Cassini orbiter presents a potential barrier to the continued study of seasonal changes in Titan's atmosphere. In our previous work, we demonstrated that the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is well suited for measurements of Titan's atmosphere in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere (~100 - 500 km) through the use of spatially resolved (beam sizes <1") flux calibration observations of Titan. Here, we derive vertical abundance profiles of four of Titan's trace atmospheric species from the same 3 independent spatial regions across Titan's disk during the same epoch (2012-2015): HCN, HC3N, C3H4, and CH3CN. We find that Titan's minor constituents exhibit large latitudinal variations, with enhanced abundances at high latitudes compared to equatorial measurements; this includes CH3CN, which eluded previous detection by Cassini in the stratosphere, and thus spatially resolved abundance measurements were unattainable. Even over the short 3-year period, vertical profiles and integrated emission maps of these molecules allow us to observe temporal changes in Titan's atmospheric circulation during northern spring. Our derived abundance profiles are comparable to contemporary measurements from Cassini infrared observations, and we find additional evidence for subsidence of enriched air onto Titan's south pole during this time period. Continued observations of Titan with ALMA beyond the summer solstice will enable further study of how Titan's atmospheric composition and dynamics respond to seasonal changes.

Thelen, Alexander E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗
NASA NTRS2018

Changes in Tropical Clouds and Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Rapid Adjustment Induced by Increased Atmospheric CO2 – A Multiscale Modeling Framework Study

The radiative heating increase due to increased CO2 concentration is the primary source for the rapid adjustment of atmospheric circulation and clouds. In this study, we investigate the rapid adjustment resulting from doubling of CO2 and its physical mechanism using a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF includes an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model component and simulates realistic shallow and deep cloud climatology and boundary layer turbulence. The rapid adjustment over the tropics is characterized by 1) reduced ascent and descent strengths over the ocean, 2) increased lower tropospheric stability (LTS) over the subsidence region, 3) shoaling of planetary boundary layers over the ocean, 4) increased deep convection over lands and shift of cloud coverage from the ocean to lands, and 5) reduced sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes over the oceanic deep convective regions. Unlike conventional general circulation models and another MMF, a reduction in the global-mean shortwave cloud radiative cooling is not simulated, due to the increase in low clouds at lower altitudes over the ocean, resulting from reduced cloud-top entrainment due to strengthened inversion. Changes in regional circulation play a key role in cloud changes and shift of cloud coverage to lands. Weaker energy transport resulting from water vapor and cloud CO2 masking effects reduces the upward motion and convective clouds in the oceanic regions. The ocean-land transports are linked to the partitioning of surface SH and LH fluxes that increases humidity over lands and enhances deep convection over the tropical lands.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modal Analysis of a Two-Parachute System

The Orion capsule is designed to land under a nominal configuration of three main parachutes; however, the system is required to be fault tolerant and land successfully if one of the main parachutes fails to open. The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Team performed a series of drop tests in order to characterize the performance of the system with two main parachutes. During the series of drop tests, several distinct dynamical modes were observed. The most consequential of these is the pendulum mode. Three other modes are benign: flyout (scissors), maypole, and breathing. The actual multi-body system is nonlinear, flexible, and possesses significant cross-coupling. Rather than perform analysis of this highly complex system directly, we conduct analysis of each dynamical mode observed during flight, based on first principles. This approach is analogous to traditional aircraft flight dynamics analysis in which the full nonlinear behavior of the airframe is decomposed into longitudinal dynamics (phugoid and short-period modes) and lateral dynamics (spiral, roll-subsidence, and dutch-roll modes). This analysis is intended to supplement multi-body nonlinear simulations in order to provide further insight into the system.

Pei, Jing↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modal Analysis of the Orion Capsule Two Parachute System

As discussed in Ref [1], it is apparent from flight tests that the system made up of two main parachutes and a capsule can undergo several distinct dynamical behaviors. The most significant and problematic of these is the pendulum mode in which the system develops a pronounced swinging motion with an amplitude of up to 24 deg. Large excursions away from vertical by the capsule could cause it to strike the ground at a large horizontal or vertical speed and jeopardize the safety of the astronauts during a crewed mission. In reference [1], Ali et al. summarized a series of efforts taken by the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Program to understand and mitigate the pendulum issue. The period of oscillation and location of the system's pivot point are determined from post-flight analysis. Other noticeable but benign modes include: 1) flyout (scissors) mode, where the parachutes move back and forth symmetrically with respect to the vertical axis similar to the motion of a pair of scissors; 2) maypole mode, where the two parachutes circle around the vertical axis at a nearly constant radius and period; and 3) breathing mode, in which deformation of the non-rigid canopies affects the axial acceleration of the system in an oscillatory manner. Because these modes are relatively harm- less, little effort has been devoted to analyzing them in comparison with the pendulum motion. Motions of the actual system made up of two parachutes and a capsule are extremely complicated due to nonlinearities and flexibility effects. Often it is difficult to obtain insight into the fundamental dynamics of the system by examining results from a multi-body simulation based on nonlinear equations of motion (EOMs). As a part of this study, the dynamics of each mode observed during flight is derived from first principles on an individual basis by making numerous simplifications along the way. The intent is to gain a better understanding into the behavior of the complex multi-body system by studying the reduced set of differential equations associated with each mode. This approach is analogous to the traditional modal analysis technique used to study airplane flight dynamics, in which the full nonlinear behavior of the airframe is decomposed into the phugoid and short period modes for the longitudinal dynamics and the spiral, roll-subsidence, and dutch-roll modes for the lateral dynamics. It is important to note that the study does not address the mechanisms that cause the system to transition from one mode to another, nor does it discuss motions during which two or more modes occur simultaneously.

Pei, J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of CFD as a Surrogate for Wind-Tunnel Testing for Mach 2.4 to 4.6 - Project Overview

The debate over when wind-tunnel testing (WTT) will be replaced by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) comes and goes. More recently the debate has subsided with a more collaborative spirit between practitioners of these two disciplines resulting in significant improvements in the outcomes of both. There may come a time, however, when CFD has sufficient accuracy to supplant WTT as the dominant or perhaps only tool for aerodynamic simulation. If and/or when that happens, financial pressure result in efforts to close or severely limit the operations of wind tunnels. Presumably additional resources will go toward CFD in order to generate aerodynamic databases, load environments, and new aero/fluid-dynamic knowledge. It is therefore important to develop appropriate processes by which wind-tunnel closure decisions are made to ensure that facilities critical to industry and government research and development aren’t closed prematurely without ensuring that the existing CFD tools have sufficient accuracy and low-enough cost (and enough experts and computational facilities) to take on the traditional role of wind tunnels. This paper will describe a project intended to answer the specific question of whether CFD can replace WTT for the limited Mach-number range 2.4 to 4.6. The wind tunnel being examined in this context is the high-speed leg of the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at NASA’s Langley Research Center (LaRC UPWT).

James C. Ross↗