Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure (ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure [ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Solar Array Disturbances to Spacecraft Pointing During the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Mission

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the first spacecraft to support NASA s return to the Moon, launched on June 18, 2009 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle. It was initially inserted into a direct trans-lunar trajectory to the Moon. After a five day transit to the Moon, LRO was inserted into the Lunar orbit and successfully lowered to a low altitude elliptical polar orbit for spacecraft commissioning. Successful commissioning was completed in October 2009 when LRO was placed in its near circular mission orbit with an approximate altitude of 50km. LRO will spend at least one year orbiting the Moon, collecting lunar environment science and mapping data, utilizing a suite of seven instruments to enable future human exploration. The objective is to provide key science data necessary to facilitate human return to the Moon as well as identification of opportunities for future science missions. LRO's instrument suite will provide the high resolution imaging data with sub-meter accuracy, highly accurate lunar cartographic maps, mineralogy mapping, amongst other science data of interest. LRO employs a 3-axis stabilized attitude control system (ACS) whose primary control mode, the "Observing Mode", provides Lunar nadir, off-nadir, and inertial fine pointing for the science data collection and instrument calibration. This controller combines the capability of fine pointing with on-demand large angle full-sky attitude reorientation. It provides simplicity of spacecraft operation as well as additional flexibility for science data collection. A conventional suite of ACS components is employed in the Observing Mode to meet the pointing and control objectives. Actuation is provided by a set of four reaction wheels developed in-house at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Attitude feedback is provided by a six state Kalman filter which utilizes two SELEX Galileo Star Trackers for attitude updates, and a single Honeywell Miniature Inertial Measurement Unit (MIMU) to provide body rates for attitude propagation. Rate is computed by differentiating accumulated angle provided by the MIMU. The Observing Mode controller is required to maintain fine pointing while a large fully-articulated solar array (SA) maintains its panel normal to the solar incidence. This paper describes the disturbances to the attitude control resulting from the SA articulation. Observing Mode performance in the presence of this disturbance was assessed while the spacecraft was in an initial elliptical low altitude orbit during the commissioning phase, which started about two weeks after launch and lasted for 90 days. LRO demonstrated excellent pointing performance during Observing Mode nadir and inertial attitude target operations during this phase. Transient LRO attitude errors observed during commissioning resulted primarily from three sources, Diviner instrument calibrations, RW zero crossings, and SA articulation. Even during times of considerable disturbance from SA articulation, the attitude errors were maintained below the statistical attitude error requirement level of 15 arc-sec (3 sigma).

Calhoun, Philip↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proton Scattering in NOvA Test Beam

The NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment is a two-detector, long baseline, neutrino oscillation experiment, which aims to make a determination of the neutrino mass ordering, the octant of $\theta_{23}$, and measure possible charge-parity (CP) violation. Determining these parameters is a step towards answering some of the fundamental questions about neutrinos. Are neutrinos their own antiparticle? Could neutrinos be responsible for the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe? How do neutrinos get their mass? Answering these questions requires precise measurements of the parameters that govern how neutrinos behave, namely the mass squared splittings, mixing angles, and possible CP-violating phase factor in the PNMS matrix. Reaching high precision requires minimizing both statistical and systematic errors. As NOvA continues to accumulate data, the sizes of our statistical errors continue to shrink such that in a couple of years they will be comparable to our systematic errors. NOvA's current systematic errors are dominated by energy and calibration uncertainties. The Test Beam program was initiated to address these uncertainties by assessing the detector response in an environment where more parameters of the incoming particles are known. One of the main goals of the Test Beam program is to garner a better understanding of our systematic errors, particularly in energy measurement and detector response, so that the modeling of these parameters can be improved. I studied protons in the Test Beam Detector with momenta around \unit[1]{GeV/c}, the high end of the momentum range relevant to quasielastic neutrino interactions in NOvA. One question this sample can help to answer is if we correctly simulate the fraction of protons that have an inelastic scattering interaction versus ranging out. If protons inelastically scatter at different rates in our simulation and data, the correction applied to the hadronic system when reconstructing neutrino energy could be inaccurate, since events with inelastic scattering will have less visible energy in the detector. This is particularly important for quasielastic $\nu_\mu$ events, which have the lowest hadronic energy resolution, and therefore give us our best measurements of $\Delta m_{32}^2$ and $\theta_{23}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2014

Constraining the variation of the fine-structure constant with observations of narrow quasar absorption lines

The unequivocal demonstration of temporal or spatial variability in a fundamental constant of nature would be of enormous significance. Recent attempts to measure the variability of the fine-structure constant α over cosmological time, using high-resolution spectra of high-redshift quasars observed with 10 m class telescopes, have produced conflicting results. We use the many multiplet (MM) method with Mg II and Fe II lines on very high signal-to-noise, high-resolution (R = 72, 000) Keck HIRES spectra of eight narrow quasar absorption systems. We consider both systematic uncertainties in spectrograph wavelength calibration and also velocity offsets introduced by complex velocity structure in even apparently simple and weak narrow lines and analyze their effect on claimed variations in α. We find no significant change in α, Δα/α = (0.43 ± 0.34) × 10{sup –5}, in the redshift range z = 0.7-1.5, where this includes both statistical and systematic errors. We also show that the scatter in measurements of Δα/α arising from absorption line structure can be considerably larger than assigned statistical errors even for apparently simple and narrow absorption systems. We find a null result of Δα/α = (– 0.59 ± 0.55) × 10{sup –5} in a system at z = 1.7382 using lines of Cr II, Zn II, and Mn II, whereas using Cr II and Zn II lines in a system at z = 1.6614 we find a systematic velocity trend that, if interpreted as a shift in α, would correspond to Δα/α = (1.88 ± 0.47) × 10{sup –5}, where both results include both statistical and systematic errors. This latter result is almost certainly caused by varying ionic abundances in subcomponents of the line: using Mn II, Ni II, and Cr II in the analysis changes the result to Δα/α = (– 0.47 ± 0.53) × 10{sup –5}. Combining the Mg II and Fe II results with estimates based on Mn II, Ni II, and Cr II gives Δα/α = (– 0.01 ± 0.26) × 10{sup –5}. We conclude that spectroscopic measurements of quasar absorption lines are not yet capable of unambiguously detecting variation in α using the MM method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Charmed and light pseudoscalar meson decay constants from four-flavor lattice QCD with physical light quarks

We compute the leptonic decay constants f D+ , f Ds , and f K+ , and the quark-mass ratios m c =m s and m s =m l in unquenched lattice QCD using the experimentally determined value of f π+ for normalization. We use the MILC Highly Improved Staggered Quark (HISQ) ensembles with four dynamical quark flavors -- up, down, strange, and charm -- and with both physical and unphysical values of the light sea-quark masses. The use of physical pions removes the need for a chiral extrapolation, thereby eliminating a significant source of uncertainty in previous calculations. Four different lattice spacing ranging from a ≈ 0:06 fm to 0:15 fm are included in the analysis to control the extrapolation to the continuum limit. Our primary results are f D+ = 212:6(0:4)$(^{+1.0}_{-1.2})$ MeV, f Ds = 249:0(0:3)$(^{+1.1}_{-1.5})$ MeV, and f Ds /f D+ = 1:1712(10)$(^{+29}_{-32})$, where the errors are statistical and total systematic, respectively. The errors on our results for the charm decay constants and their ratio are approximately two to four times smaller than those of the most precise previous lattice calculations. We also obtain f K+ / f π+ = 1:1956(10)$(^{+26}_{-18})$, updating our previous result, and determine the quark-mass ratios m s /m l = 27:35(5)$(^{+10}_{-7})$ and m c /m s = 11:747(19)$(^{+59}_{-43})$. When combined with experimental measurements of the decay rates, our results lead to precise determinations of the CKM matrix elements !Vus! = 0:22487(51)(29)(20)(5), !Vcd! = 0:217(1)(5)(1) and !Vcs! = 1:010(5)(18)(6), where the errors are from this calculation of the decay constants, the uncertainty in the experimental decay rates, structure-dependent electromagnetic corrections, and, in the case of !Vus!, the uncertainty in |Vud|, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Aemulus Project. I. Numerical Simulations for Precision Cosmology

The rapidly growing statistical precision of galaxy surveys has led to a need for ever more precise predictions of the observables used to constrain cosmological and galaxy formation models. The primary avenue through which such predictions will be obtained is suites of numerical simulations. These simulations must span the relevant model parameter spaces, be large enough to obtain the precision demanded by upcoming data, and be thoroughly validated in order to ensure accuracy. In this paper, we present one such suite of simulations, forming the basis for the AEMULUS Project, a collaboration devoted to precision emulation of galaxy survey observables. We have run a set of 75 (1.05 h(-1) Gpc)(3) simulations with mass resolution and force softening of 3.51 x 10(10) (Omega(m)/0.3) h(-1) M-circle dot and 20 h(-1) kpc, respectively, in 47 different wCDM cosmologies spanning the range of parameter space allowed by the combination of recent cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Type Ia supernova results. We present convergence tests of several observables including spherical overdensity halo mass functions, galaxy projected correlation functions, galaxy clustering in redshift space, and matter and halo correlation functions and power spectra. We show that these statistics are converged to 1% (2%) or to the sample variance of the statistic, whichever is larger, for halos with more than 500 (200) particles, respectively, and scales of r > 200 h(-1) kpc. in real space or k similar to 3 h Mpc(-1). in harmonic space for z <= 1. We find that the dominant source of uncertainty comes from varying the particle loading of the simulations. This leads to large systematic errors for statistics using halos with fewer than 200 particles and scales smaller than k similar to 4 h Mpc(-1). We provide the halo catalogs and snapshots detailed in this work to the community at. https://AemulusProject.github.io.

large-scale structure of universe↗
DOE OSTI2015

Polarization Transfer in Wide-Angle Compton Scattering and Single-Pion Photoproduction from the Proton

Wide-angle exclusive Compton scattering and single-pion photoproduction from the proton have been investigated via measurement of the polarization transfer from a circularly polarized photon beam to the recoil proton. The wide-angle Compton scattering polarization transfer was analyzed at an incident photon energy of 3.7 GeV at a proton scattering angle of theta(p)(cm) cm = 70 degrees. The longitudinal transfer K-LL, measured to be 0.645 +/- 0.059 +/- 0.048, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic, has the same sign as predicted for the reaction mechanism in which the photon interacts with a single quark carrying the spin of the proton. However, the observed value is similar to 3 times larger than predicted by the generalized-parton-distribution-based calculations, which indicates a significant unknown contribution to the scattering amplitude.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

B -meson decay constants from 2 + 1 -flavor lattice QCD with domain-wall light quarks and relativistic heavy quarks

We calculate the B-meson decay constants f B , f B s , and their ratio in unquenched lattice QCD using domain-wall light quarks and relativistic b quarks. We use gauge-field ensembles generated by the RBC and UKQCD collaborations using the domain-wall fermion action and Iwasaki gauge action with three flavors of light dynamical quarks. We analyze data at two lattice spacings of a ≈ 0.11, 0.086 fm with unitary pion masses as light as M π ≈ 290 MeV; this enables us to control the extrapolation to the physical light-quark masses and continuum. For the b quarks we use the anisotropic clover action with the relativistic heavy-quark interpretation, such that discretization errors from the heavy-quark action are of the same size as from the light-quark sector. We renormalize the lattice heavy-light axial-vector current using a mostly nonperturbative method in which we compute the bulk of the matching factor nonperturbatively, with a small correction, that is close to unity, in lattice perturbation theory. We also improve the lattice heavy-light current through O(α s a). We extrapolate our results to the physical light-quark masses and continuum using SU(2) heavy-meson chiral perturbation theory, and provide a complete systematic error budget. We obtain f B 0 = 199.5(12.6) MeV, f B + =195.6(14.9) MeV, f B s =235.4(12.2) MeV, f B s /f B 0 =1.197(50), and f B s /f B + =1.223(71), where the errors are statistical and total systematic added in quadrature. Finally, these results are in good agreement with other published results and provide an important independent cross-check of other three-flavor determinations of B-meson decay constants using staggered light quarks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1974

Error control in the GCF: An information-theoretic model for error analysis and coding

The structure of data-transmission errors within the Ground Communications Facility is analyzed in order to provide error control (both forward error correction and feedback retransmission) for improved communication. Emphasis is placed on constructing a theoretical model of errors and obtaining from it all the relevant statistics for error control. No specific coding strategy is analyzed, but references to the significance of certain error pattern distributions, as predicted by the model, to error correction are made.

Adeyemi, O.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Measurement of the de Sitter precession of the moon - A relativistic three-body effect

Lunar laser-ranging data, accumulated between 1970 and 1986, are analyzed to estimate the deviation of the precession of the moon's orbit from the predictions of general relativity. No deviation from this predicted de Sitter precession rate of nearly 2 angular sec per century (sec/cy) is found, to within an estimated standard error of 0.04 sec/cy. This standard error, 2 percent of the predicted effect, incorporates an assessment of the likely contributions of systematic errors, and is about threefold larger than the statistical standard error.

Shapiro, I. I.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Tidal dissipation in the moon

Euler's equations of motion, modified to include elasticity and solid friction, were used to study the rotation of the moon. Two heuristic models for the anelasticity were considered: Q independent of frequency and Q inversely proportional to the frequency and Q inversely proportional to the frequency of the strain oscillation. Parameters in each model were estimated by weighted least squares from 9 years of lunar laser range observations. The root mean square of the postfit range residuals was 19 cm in each case. For a strain period of 1 month, the estimates of Q obtained with the two models were similar and surprisingly low: 23 + or - 6. The range of uncertaintly, + or - 6, represents our estimate of the true standard deviation of the estimate of Q, as affected by systematic errors; it is 3 times larger than the formal, statistical, standard error.

Cappallo, R. J.↗