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NASA NTRS2009

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2018

AMSR2 Soil Moisture Downscaling Using Temperature and Vegetation Data

Soil moisture (SM) applications in terrestrial hydrology require higher spatial resolution soil moisture products than those provided by passive microwave remote sensing instruments (grid resolution of 9 km or larger). In this investigation, an innovative algorithm that uses visible/infrared remote sensing observations to downscale Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) coarse spatial resolution SM products was developed and implemented for use with data provided by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). The method is based on using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) modulated relationships between day/night SM and temperature change at corresponding times. Land surface model output variables from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), remote sensing data from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were used in this methodology. The functional relationships developed using NLDAS data at a grid resolution of 12.5 km were applied to downscale AMSR2 JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) SM product (25 km) using MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and NDVI observations (1 km) to produce the 1 km SM estimates. The downscaled SM estimates were validated by comparing them with ISMN (International Soil Moisture Network) in situ SM in the Black Bear-Red Rock watershed, central Oklahoma between 2015-2017. The overall statistical variables of the downscaled AMSR2 SM validation R2, slope, RMSE and bias, demonstrate good accuracy. The downscaled SM better characterized the spatial and temporal variability of SM at watershed scales than the original SM product.

AMSR2; passive microwave soil moisture; soil moist↗

NASA NTRS2019

Surface Height and Sea Ice Freeboard of the Arctic Ocean from ICESat-2: Characteristics and Early Results

We present the first winter season of surface height and sea ice freeboards of the Arctic Ocean from the new ICESat-2 (IS-2) mission. The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) onboard has six photon-counting beams for surface profiling with a 10-kHz pulse-rate (inter-pulse distance ~0.7m) and footprints of ~17m. Geolocated heights assigned to individual photons scattered from the surface allow significant flexibility in the construction of height distributions used in surface finding. For IS-2 sea ice products, a fixed 150-photon aggregate is used to control height precision and obtain better along-track resolution over high reflectance surfaces. Quasi-specular returns in openings as narrow as ~27m, crucial for freeboard calculations, are resolved. The fixed photon aggregate results in unique variable along-track resolutions and non-uniform sampling (17m x 27m to 17m x 200m for the strong beams) of the surface. The six profiling beams – three pairs separated by 3.3 km with a strong and weak beam in each pair – provide correlated statistics at regional length scales for assessment of beam-to-beam retrieval consistency and accuracy. Analysis shows along-track height precisions of ~2cm, and agreement in the monthly freeboard distributions across the strong beams to 1-2cm. In this paper, we describe briefly the approaches used in surface height and freeboard retrievals from ATLAS photon clouds, and detail the key features of these along-track sea ice products, focusing on the first release of data collected over the Arctic Ocean, which spans the period between October 14, 2018 – the start of data collection – and the end of March 2019.

R Kwok↗

NASA NTRS2012

Parametric Study of Decay of Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence Using Large Eddy Simulation

Numerical simulations of decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence are performed with both low-order and high-order spatial discretization schemes. The turbulent Mach and Reynolds numbers for the simulations are 0.2 and 250, respectively. For the low-order schemes we use either second-order central or third-order upwind biased differencing. For higher order approximations we apply weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) schemes, both with linear and nonlinear weights. There are two objectives in this preliminary effort to investigate possible schemes for large eddy simulation (LES). One is to explore the capability of a widely used low-order computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code to perform LES computations. The other is to determine the effect of higher order accuracy (fifth, seventh, and ninth order) achieved with high-order upwind biased WENO-based schemes. Turbulence statistics, such as kinetic energy, dissipation, and skewness, along with the energy spectra from simulations of the decaying turbulence problem are used to assess and compare the various numerical schemes. In addition, results from the best performing schemes are compared with those from a spectral scheme. The effects of grid density, ranging from 32 cubed to 192 cubed, on the computations are also examined. The fifth-order WENO-based scheme is found to be too dissipative, especially on the coarser grids. However, with the seventh-order and ninth-order WENO-based schemes we observe a significant improvement in accuracy relative to the lower order LES schemes, as revealed by the computed peak in the energy dissipation and by the energy spectrum.

Swanson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Interpretable Machine Learning for Molecular Biosignatures: a Novel Single-Sample Feature Importance Method That Is Sensitive To Statistical Interactions

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.

geochemistry↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Correction of Satellite Ocean-Color Imagery During the PACE Era

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will carry into space the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), a spectrometer measuring at 5 nm spectral resolution in the ultraviolet (UV) to near infrared (NIR) with additional spectral bands in the shortwave infrared (SWIR), and two multi-angle polarimeters that will overlap the OCI spectral range and spatial coverage, i. e., the Spectrometer for Planetary Exploration (SPEXone) and the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP2). These instruments, especially when used in synergy, have great potential for improving estimates of water reflectance in the post Earth Observing System (EOS) era. Extending the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) observations to the UV, where aerosol absorption is effective, adding spectral bands in the SWIR, where even the most turbid waters are black and sensitivity to the aerosol coarse mode is higher than at shorter wavelengths, and measuring in the oxygen A-band to estimate aerosol altitude will enable greater accuracy in atmospheric correction for ocean color science. The multi-angular and polarized measurements, sensitive to aerosol properties (e.g., size distribution, index of refraction), can further help to identify or constrain the aerosol model, or to retrieve directly water reflectance. Algorithms that exploit the new capabilities are presented, and their ability to improve accuracy is discussed. They embrace a modern, adapted heritage two-step algorithm and alternative schemes (deterministic, statistical) that aim at inverting the TOA signal in a single step. These schemes, by the nature of their construction, their robustness, their generalization properties, and their ability to associate uncertainties, are expected to become the new standard in the future. A strategy for atmospheric correction is presented that ensures continuity and consistency with past and present ocean-color missions while enabling full exploitation of the new dimensions and possibilities. Despite the major improvements anticipated with the PACE instruments, gaps/issues remain to be filled/tackled. They include dealing properly with whitecaps, taking into account Earth-curvature effects, correcting for adjacency effects, accounting for the coupling between scattering and absorption, modeling accurately water reflectance, and acquiring a sufficiently representative dataset of water reflectance in the UV to SWIR. Dedicated efforts, experimental and theoretical, are in order to gather the necessary information and rectify inadequacies. Ideas and solutions are put forward to address the unresolved issues. Thanks to its design and characteristics, the PACE mission will mark the beginning of a new era of unprecedented accuracy in ocean-color radiometry from space.

Robert J Frouin↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Correction of Satellite Ocean-Color Imagery During the PACE Era

ocean color↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aemulus $\nu$: precise predictions for matter and biased tracer power spectra in the presence of neutrinos

Here we present the Aemulusν simulations: a suite of 150 (1.05 h -1 Gpc) 3 N-body simulations with a mass resolution of 3.51 × 10 10 Ω cb /0.3 h -1 M ⊙ in a wνCDM cosmological parameter space. The simulations have been explicitly designed to span a broad range in σ8 to facilitate investigations of tension between large scale structure and cosmic microwave background cosmological probes. Neutrinos are treated as a second particle species to ensure accuracy to 0.5 eV, the maximum neutrino mass that we have simulated. By employing Zel'dovich control variates, we increase the effective volume of our simulations by factors of 10-10 5 depending on the statistic in question. As a first application of these simulations, we build new hybrid effective field theory and matter power spectrum surrogate models, demonstrating that they achieve ≤ 1% accuracy for k ≤ 1 hMpc -1 and 0 ≤ z ≤ 3, and ≤ 2% accuracy for k ≤ 4 hMpc -1 for the matter power spectrum. We publicly release the trained surrogate models, and estimates of the surrogate model errors in the hope that they will be broadly applicable to a range of cosmological analyses for many years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Rigid body mode pointing accuracy and stability criteria for an orbiting spacecraft

The effect of gravity gradient torque disturbances (which is an order of magnitude greater than the other torque disturbances and is sinusoidal with a frequency of two cycles per orbit) on pointing accuracy can be predicted very precisely. However, since the sensor noise such as star tracker and gyro inherent noise, is random, their effect can only be predicted statistically. The most common method used is computer simulation with appropriate sensor model and adjusting spacecraft control laws for minimum pointing error, as presented by Harris (1972). The general investigation outlined theoretically relates spacecraft controls to pointing accuracy in terms of the sensor noise power spectrum. The results are presented in graphical form.

Sandhu, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Implementation and Assessment of Advanced Analog Vector-Matrix Processor

This paper discusses the design and implementation of an analog optical vecto-rmatrix coprocessor with a throughput of 128 Mops for a personal computer. Vector matrix calculations are inherently parallel, providing a promising domain for the use of optical calculators. However, to date, digital optical systems have proven too cumbersome to replace electronics, and analog processors have not demonstrated sufficient accuracy in large scale systems. The goal of the work described in this paper is to demonstrate a viable optical coprocessor for linear operations. The analog optical processor presented has been integrated with a personal computer to provide full functionality and is the first demonstration of an optical linear algebra processor with a throughput greater than 100 Mops. The optical vector matrix processor consists of a laser diode source, an acoustooptical modulator array to input the vector information, a liquid crystal spatial light modulator to input the matrix information, an avalanche photodiode array to read out the result vector of the vector matrix multiplication, as well as transport optics and the electronics necessary to drive the optical modulators and interface to the computer. The intent of this research is to provide a low cost, highly energy efficient coprocessor for linear operations. Measurements of the analog accuracy of the processor performing 128 Mops are presented along with an assessment of the implications for future systems. A range of noise sources, including cross-talk, source amplitude fluctuations, shot noise at the detector, and non-linearities of the optoelectronic components are measured and compared to determine the most significant source of error. The possibilities for reducing these sources of error are discussed. Also, the total error is compared with that expected from a statistical analysis of the individual components and their relation to the vector-matrix operation. The sufficiency of the measured accuracy of the processor is compared with that required for a range of typical problems. Calculations resolving alloy concentrations from spectral plume data of rocket engines are implemented on the optical processor, demonstrating its sufficiency for this problem. We also show how this technology can be easily extended to a 100 x 100 10 MHz (200 Cops) processor.

Gary, Charles K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Meteorological models for estimating phenology of corn

Knowledge of when critical crop stages occur and how the environment affects them should provide useful information for crop management decisions and crop production models. Two sources of data were evaluated for predicting dates of silking and physiological maturity of corn (Zea mays L.). Initial evaluations were conducted using data of an adapted corn hybrid grown on a Typic Agriaquoll at the Purdue University Agronomy Farm. The second phase extended the analyses to large areas using data acquired by the Statistical Reporting Service of USDA for crop reporting districts (CRD) in Indiana and Iowa. Several thermal models were compared to calendar days for predicting dates of silking and physiological maturity. Mixed models which used a combination of thermal units to predict silking and days after silking to predict physiological maturity were also evaluated. At the Agronomy Farm the models were calibrated and tested on the same data. The thermal models were significantly less biased and more accurate than calendar days for predicting dates of silking. Differences among the thermal models were small. Significant improvements in both bias and accuracy were observed when the mixed models were used to predict dates of physiological maturity. The results indicate that statistical data for CRD can be used to evaluate models developed at agricultural experiment stations.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid neutron and gamma-ray source localization using machine learning

Rapid localization of radiation sources is critical for applications including nuclear emergency response, safeguards, and security. However, conventional imaging systems such as neutron scatter cameras and Compton cameras depend on rare coincidence events, which often result in long acquisition times. In this work, we address the challenge of rapid source localization by developing a machine learning approach to predict the direction of a single radiation source using only count rates from an array of neutron and gamma-ray detectors. The proposed model is a fully connected neural network (FCNN) trained using Monte Carlo simulation data from a 252 Cf source. The model hyperparameters are optimized with a small set of routine 252 Cf measurements. We benchmarked the performance of the trained and optimized machine learning model using additional 252 Cf , 137 Cs , and PuBe measurements under laboratory conditions with varying source-detector configurations. For these measurements, the machine learning model achieved a mean localization error smaller than 30° with 3 x 10 3 system counts, corresponding to 8 s measurement time for the imaging system used in this work. In this low-statistics regime, the method outperformed traditional scatter-based imaging by more than 75% in localization accuracy for the evaluated measurement configurations. These results demonstrate that a machine learning-based approach can significantly reduce the time required for accurate single-source localization, providing a robust and computationally efficient alternative to traditional imaging systems in time-critical nuclear security and emergency response scenarios.

Gamma-ray imaging↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward prediction of turbulent atmospheric flows over propagating oceanic waves via machine-learning augmented large-eddy simulation

Wind-wave interactions have important effects on the energy harvesting of offshore wind farms. High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) is a powerful approach for investigating wind-wave interactions in turbulent oceanic environments. Due to the large scale of the flow domain and the high grid resolution required to resolve multi-scale flow motions, however, brute-force LES of wind-wave interactions is computationally very expensive. We propose augmenting brute-force LES via machine-learning data-driven modeling (ML-LES) to dramatically reduce the computational time required to obtain converged turbulence statistics when the brute-force approach is employed. Namely, we employ a convolutional neural network (CNN) autoencoder trained and validated with LES data sets to develop a highly efficient ML-LES approach for computing turbulence statistics from just a few snapshots of instantaneous LES flow fields. Further, our results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of ML-LES in predicting the mean velocity, velocity fluctuations, and turbulence kinetic energy in highly stretched computational grid systems required to carry out simulations in real-life oceanic environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Map-level baryonification: unified treatment of weak lensing two-point and higher-order statistics

Precision cosmology benefits from extracting maximal information from cosmic structures, motivating the use of higher-order statistics (HOS) at small spatial scales. However, predicting how baryonic processes modify matter statistics at these scales has been challenging. The baryonic correction model (BCM) addresses this by modifying dark-matter-only simulations to mimic baryonic effects, providing a flexible, simulation-based framework for predicting both two-point and HOS. We show that a 3-parameter version of the BCM can jointly fit weak lensing maps' two-point statistics, wavelet phase harmonics coefficients, scattering coefficients, and the third and fourth moments to within 2% accuracy across all scales ℓ < 2000 and tomographic bins for a DES-Y3-like redshift distribution ( z ≲ 2), using the FLAMINGO simulations. These results demonstrate the viability of BCM-assisted, simulation-based weak lensing inference of two-point and HOS, paving the way for robust cosmological constraints that fully exploit non-Gaussian information on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

QUIJOTE scientific results – IV. A northern sky survey in intensity and polarization at 10–20 GHz with the multifrequency instrument

ABSTRACT We present QUIJOTE intensity and polarization maps in four frequency bands centred around 11, 13, 17, and 19 GHz, and covering approximately 29 000 deg2, including most of the northern sky region. These maps result from 9000 h of observations taken between May 2013 and June 2018 with the first QUIJOTE multifrequency instrument (MFI), and have angular resolutions of around 1°, and sensitivities in polarization within the range 35–40 µK per 1° beam, being a factor ∼2–4 worse in intensity. We discuss the data processing pipeline employed, and the basic characteristics of the maps in terms of real space statistics and angular power spectra. A number of validation tests have been applied to characterize the accuracy of the calibration and the residual level of systematic effects, finding a conservative overall calibration uncertainty of 5 per cent. We also discuss flux densities for four bright celestial sources (Tau A, Cas A, Cyg A, and 3C274), which are often used as calibrators at microwave frequencies. The polarization signal in our maps is dominated by synchrotron emission. The distribution of spectral index values between the 11 GHz and WMAP 23 GHz map peaks at β = −3.09 with a standard deviation of 0.14. The measured BB/EE ratio at scales of ℓ = 80 is 0.26 ± 0.07 for a Galactic cut |b| > 10°. We find a positive TE correlation for 11 GHz at large angular scales (ℓ ≲ 50), while the EB and TB signals are consistent with zero in the multipole range 30 ≲ ℓ ≲ 150. The maps discussed in this paper are publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Client Selection in Federated Learning: A Network Anomaly Detection Use Case

Federated Learning (FL) has become a ubiquitous approach for training machine learning models on decentralized data, addressing the myriad privacy concerns inherent in traditional centralized methods. However, the efficiency of FL depends on effective client selection and robust privacy preservation mechanisms. Inadequate client selection may lead to suboptimal model performance, while insufficient privacy measures risk exposing sensitive data. This paper proposes a client selection framework for FL that integrates differential privacy and fault tolerance. Our adaptive approach dynamically adjusts the number of selected clients based on model performance and system constraints, ensuring privacy through calibrated noise addition. We evaluate our method on a network anomaly detection use case using the UNSW-NB15 and ROAD datasets. Results show up to a 7% increase in accuracy and a 25% reduction in training time compared to FedL2P. Moreover, we highlight the trade-offs between privacy budgets and model performance, with higher privacy budgets reducing noise and improving accuracy. Our fault tolerance mechanism, while causing a slight performance drop, enhances robustness to client failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney U tests confirms the significance of these improvements (p < 0.05).

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Redshift-space Clustering with Abundance Matching

Abstract We explore the degrees of freedom required to jointly fit projected and redshift-space clustering of galaxies selected in three bins of stellar mass from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Main Galaxy Sample (SDSS MGS) using a subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) model. We employ emulators for relevant clustering statistics in order to facilitate our analysis, leading to large speed gains with minimal loss of accuracy. We are able to simultaneously fit the projected and redshift-space clustering of the two most massive galaxy samples that we consider with just two free parameters: scatter in stellar mass at fixed SHAM proxy, and the dependence of the SHAM proxy on dark matter halo concentration. We find some evidence for models that include velocity bias, but including orphan galaxies improves our fits to the lower-mass samples significantly. We also model the clustering signals of specific star formation rate (sSFR) selected samples using conditional abundance matching (CAM). We obtain acceptable fits to projected and redshift-space clustering as a function of sSFR and stellar mass using two CAM variants, although the fits are worse than for stellar-mass-selected samples alone. By incorporating nonunity correlations between the CAM proxy and sSFR, we are able to resolve previously identified discrepancies between CAM predictions and SDSS observations of the environmental dependence of quenching for isolated central galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗