U.S. Census State and County Population Estimates 2000-2019
Annual estimates of state and county-level populations from the U.S. Census Bureau from 2000-2019.
2000-2019↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “State estimation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Adaptive filtering with correlated state noise
An adaptive filter which uses a minimum variance criteria to estimate state noise covariance is presented. It is not necessary to assume white state noise in order to implement the filter. Simulation results are given which demonstrate that the filter tracks a satellite in the presence of modeling errors better than a conventional minimum variance filter with state noise. It is also shown that the propagated convariance matrix of the filter is an accurate indicator of the filter's performance.
Argentiero, P.↗
Simultaneous estimation of the state and noise statistics in linear dynamical systems
Simultaneous estimation of state and noise statistics in linear dynamical systems using optimal procedure
Abramson, P. D., Jr.↗
Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean
One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.
Borovikov, Anna↗
The Effect of Sensor Failure on the Attitude and Rate Estimation of MAP Spacecraft
This work describes two algorithms for computing the angular rate and attitude in case of a gyro and a Star Tracker failure in the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) satellite, which was placed in the L2 parking point from where it collects data to determine the origin of the universe. The nature of the problem is described, two algorithms are suggested, an observability study is carried out and real MAP data are used to determine the merit of the algorithms. It is shown that one of the algorithms yields a good estimate of the rates but not of the attitude whereas the other algorithm yields a good estimate of the rate as well as two of the three attitude angles. The estimation of the third angle depends on the initial state estimate. There is a contradiction between this result and the outcome of the observability analysis. An explanation of this contradiction is given in the paper. Although this work treats a particular spacecraft, its conclusions are more general.
Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗
Distributed Sensing and Reasoning for Advanced Air Mobility Health Management and Mission Assurance
As envisioned, Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) will introduce new vehicles and operations within the national airspace, moving people and cargo safely and efficiently at a much larger scale than today. Driven by transformative technology and revolutionary aircraft, this movement must still manage technical, regulatory, operational, and policy challenges. NASA’s work in support of AAM and UAM includes, but is not limited to tools, technologies, and architectures for distributed sensing of aircraft, data & reasoning services exchange, Human-Autonomy Teaming (HAT), contingency management, and vehicle health management. This paper builds upon these concepts and evaluates the use of distributed sensing and infrastructure assistance towards health management and mission assurance of UAM vehicles in specific operational scenarios. Through analysis of these example missions, aided by the data produced by the conceptual distributed sensing and reasoning infrastructure, we define opportunities for state estimation, diagnosis, and key decision points affecting the health state of the vehicle and the airspace volume. As a result, we define a number of measurable health state parameters providing relevant information to drive decision-making in contingency situations or feed automation tools in support of operators and managers.
Safety↗
Rotorcraft system identification techniques for handling qualities and stability and control evaluation
An integrated approach to rotorcraft system identification is described. This approach consists of sequential application of (1) data filtering to estimate states of the system and sensor errors, (2) model structure estimation to isolate significant model effects, and (3) parameter identification to quantify the coefficient of the model. An input design algorithm is described which can be used to design control inputs which maximize parameter estimation accuracy. Details of each aspect of the rotorcraft identification approach are given. Examples of both simulated and actual flight data processing are given to illustrate each phase of processing. The procedure is shown to provide means of calibrating sensor errors in flight data, quantifying high order state variable models from the flight data, and consequently computing related stability and control design models.
Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
A fast algorithm for control and estimation using a polynomial state-space structure
One of the major problems associated with the control of flexible structures is the estimation of system states. Since the parameters of the structures are not constant under varying loads and conditions, conventional fixed parameter state estimators can not be used to effectively estimate the states of the system. One alternative is to use a state estimator which adapts to the condition of the system. One such estimator is the Kalman filter. This filter is a time varying recursive digital filter which is based upon a model of the system being measured. This filter adapts the model according to the output of the system. Previously, the Kalman filter has only been used in an off-line capacity due to the computational time required for implementation. With recent advances in computer technology, it is becoming a viable tool for use in the on-line environment. A distributed Kalman filter implementation is described for fast estimation of the state of a flexible arm. A key issue, is the sensor structure and initial work on a distributed sensor that could be used with the Kalman filter is presented.
Shults, James R.↗
A new solution to parameter adaptive estimation of random processes
This paper is concerned with the development of an adaptive state estimator that is capable of tracking switched linear plants that undergo rapid configuration changes. The particular adaptive estimator developed here is called the Sliding Window Detector/Estimator (SWDE) algorithm. Unlike previous algorithms, the SWDE algorithm is designed specifically for the switched-linear plant problem. It uses a joint detection/estimation approach to give a very close approximation to the unrealizable optimum switched-linear estimator. An extremely reliable and accurate estimator can be constructed by combining a modified Parameter Adaptive Estimation (PAE) algorithm with SWDE. The algorithm has been fully verified by extensive computer simulation, and the implementation advantages afforded by this method make it suitable for use in a wide variety of applications.
Zwicke, P. E.↗
Net Load Redistribution Attacks on Nodal Voltage Magnitude Estimation in AC Distribution Networks
A high penetration level of smart devices and communication networks increases the threat of cyber-attacks in the distribution system. In this paper, we model a hidden, coordinated, net load redistribution attack (NLRA) in an AC distribution system. Based on local information of an attack region, the attacker’s goal is to create violations in nodal voltage magnitude estimation. Acting as a system operator equipped with global AC state estimation and bad data detection, we validate the stealthiness of the hidden NLRA in multiple attack cases. Simulation results on a modified PG&E 69-node distribution system show the validity of the proposed NLRA. The influence of NLRA on the distribution system is assessed and the impact of attack regions, attack timing, and system observability is also revealed.
Zhang, Hang↗
Ideal State Reconstructor For Control System
Ideal state reconstructor is conceptual subsystem of deterministic digital control system estimating state of controlled plant periodically at discrete sampling intervals of duration T. Does not add new states, eigenvalues, or dynamics. Based on concepts described in "State-Variable Representations For Moving-Average Sampling" (MFS-28405).
Polites, Michael E.↗
Model Form Error Correction for a Black-Box Thermal Battery Heat Transfer Simulation
Thermal batteries are crucial for supplying power to high-consequence engineering applications such as rockets. Computational simulations have been developed to predict thermal battery behavior, but these simulations often suffer from modeling errors, including model form uncertainty. Addressing this uncertainty can be achieved by quantifying either the model discrepancy in the output or the model form error (MFE) in the governing equation. MFE is particularly valuable as it can be better extrapolated beyond observed outputs, which is essential for predictions involving changes in external system loading, system configuration and geometry, or output quantities. This paper employs a state estimation approach to estimate MFE using experimental data and then utilizes machine learning (ML) to model its relationship with state variables. A nonintrusive technique is used to estimate MFE in a black-box thermal battery heat transfer simulation. The trained machine learning model for MFE is then applied to correct simulation predictions under extrapolated initial conditions and battery configurations. In conclusion, the methodology's performance is evaluated using additional experimental data, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving prediction accuracy.
Batteries↗
The inclusion of rotor dynamics in controller design for helicopters.
State-feedback-controllers and state-estimators (filters) are designed for the roll-pitch-horizontal motions of a helicopter near hover, using a new quadratic synthesis technique. One model (tenth order) uses a dynamic model of the rotor, whereas the other model (sixth order) assumes the rotor can be tilted instantaneously. It is shown that, for tight control, neglecting the rotor dynamics in designing the autopilot can produce unstable closed-loop response on the model that includes rotor dynamics. Two filters are designed to use only fuselage sensors and two are designed to use both fuselage and rotor sensors. It is shown that rotor states can be estimated with sufficient accuracy using only fuselage sensors so that it does not seem worthwhile to use rotor sensors. The mean square response of the vehicle to a gusty, random wind, using several different filter/state-feedback compensators, is shown to be satisfactory.
Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
Robotic and Human-Tended Collaborative Drilling Automation for Subsurface Exploration
Future in-situ lunar/martian resource utilization and characterization, as well as the scientific search for life on Mars, will require access to the subsurface and hence drilling. Drilling on Earth is hard - an art form more than an engineering discipline. Human operators listen and feel drill string vibrations coming from kilometers underground. Abundant mass and energy make it possible for terrestrial drilling to employ brute-force approaches to failure recovery and system performance issues. Space drilling will require intelligent and autonomous systems for robotic exploration and to support human exploration. Eventual in-situ resource utilization will require deep drilling with probable human-tended operation of large-bore drills, but initial lunar subsurface exploration and near-term ISRU will be accomplished with lightweight, rover-deployable or standalone drills capable of penetrating a few tens of meters in depth. These lightweight exploration drills have a direct counterpart in terrestrial prospecting and ore-body location, and will be designed to operate either human-tended or automated. NASA and industry now are acquiring experience in developing and building low-mass automated planetary prototype drills to design and build a pre-flight lunar prototype targeted for 2011-12 flight opportunities. A successful system will include development of drilling hardware, and automated control software to operate it safely and effectively. This includes control of the drilling hardware, state estimation of both the hardware and the lithography being drilled and state of the hole, and potentially planning and scheduling software suitable for uncertain situations such as drilling. Given that Humans on the Moon or Mars are unlikely to be able to spend protracted EVA periods at a drill site, both human-tended and robotic access to planetary subsurfaces will require some degree of standalone, autonomous drilling capability. Human-robotic coordination will be important, either between a robotic drill and humans on Earth, or a human-tended drill and its visiting crew. The Mars Analog Rio Tinto Experiment (MARTE) is a current project that studies and simulates the remote science operations between an automated drill in Spain and a distant, distributed human science team. The Drilling Automation for Mars Exploration (DAME) project, by contrast: is developing and testing standalone automation at a lunar/martian impact crater analog site in Arctic Canada. The drill hardware in both projects is a hardened, evolved version of the Advanced Deep Drill (ADD) developed by Honeybee Robotics for the Mars Subsurface Program. The current ADD is capable of 20m, and the DAME project is developing diagnostic and executive software for hands-off surface operations of the evolved version of this drill. The current drill automation architecture being developed by NASA and tested in 2004-06 at analog sites in the Arctic and Spain will add downhole diagnosis of different strata, bit wear detection, and dynamic replanning capabilities when unexpected failures or drilling conditions are discovered in conjunction with simulated mission operations and remote science planning. The most important determinant of future 1unar and martian drilling automation and staffing requirements will be the actual performance of automated prototype drilling hardware systems in field trials in simulated mission operations. It is difficult to accurately predict the level of automation and human interaction that will be needed for a lunar-deployed drill without first having extensive experience with the robotic control of prototype drill systems under realistic analog field conditions. Drill-specific failure modes and software design flaws will become most apparent at this stage. DAME will develop and test drill automation software and hardware under stressful operating conditions during several planned field campaigns. Initial results from summer 2004 tests show seven identifi distinct failure modes of the drill: cuttings-removal issues with low-power drilling into permafrost, and successful steps at executive control and initial automation.
Glass, Brian↗
Real time evolution for ultracompact Hamiltonian eigenstates on quantum hardware
In this work we present a detailed analysis of variational quantum phase estimation (VQPE), a method based on real-time evolution for ground and excited state estimation on near-term hardware. We derive the theoretical ground on which the approach stands, and demonstrate that it provides one of the most compact variational expansions to date for solving strongly correlated Hamiltonians. At the center of VQPE lies a set of equations, with a simple geometrical interpretation, which provides conditions for the time evolution grid in order to decouple eigenstates out of the set of time evolved expansion states, and connects the method to the classical filter diagonalization algorithm. Further, we introduce what we call the unitary formulation of VQPE, in which the number of matrix elements that need to be measured scales linearly with the number of expansion states, and we provide an analysis of the effects of noise which substantially improves previous considerations. The unitary formulation allows for a direct comparison to iterative phase estimation. Our results mark VQPE as both a natural and highly efficient quantum algorithm for ground and excited state calculations of general many-body systems. We demonstrate a hardware implementation of VQPE for the transverse field Ising model. Further, we illustrate its power on a paradigmatic example of strong correlation (Cr2 in the SVP basis set), and show that it is possible to reach chemical accuracy with as few as ~50 timesteps.
Klymko, Katherine↗
A Reduced Dimension Static, Linearized Kalman Filter and Smoother
An approximate Kalman filter and smoother, based on approximations of the state estimation error covariance matrix, is described. Approximations include a reduction of the effective state dimension, use of a static asymptotic error limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. Examples of use come from TOPEX/POSEIDON.
Kalman filter smoother modeling ocean simulation↗
A Physics-Based Digital Twin for Wave Elevation and Seabed Moment Estimation of Offshore Monopiles: Preprint
In this work, we present a proof of concept of a physics-based digital twin for a monopile structure (with overhead inertia) subjected to wave loading. The digital twin is formulated using reduced-order models derived from first principles and combined with a Kalman filter for state estimation. The proposed framework estimates the monopile top motion, the wave elevation, and the section forces and moments along the pile using primarily acceleration measurements at the monopile top. Key innovations include the use of a hydrodynamic shape function to represent distributed wave loading in a compact and computationally efficient manner, and the introduction of a shaping filter to augment the state-space with wave kinematics. Synthetic measurement data are generated using OpenFAST and used as a reference to assess the performance of the digital twin. Results demonstrate that the wave elevation can be accurately reconstructed without direct sea-state measurements as long as the wave regime is inertia-dominated. Under the ideal tested conditions, the total hydrodynamic force and sea-bed bending moment are estimated with relative errors on the order of 1% and correlation coefficients exceeding 96%. Future work will evaluate the estimator's performance under operational uncertainties and more complex loading conditions.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference
To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗