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At least 469 records · Page 26

Modeling Study of Planetary Waves in the Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere (MLT)

For comparison with measurements from the TIMED satellite and coordinated ground based observations, we present results from our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization (Hines, 1997) for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). We discuss the planetary waves (PWs) that are purely generated by dynamical interactions, i.e., without explicitly specifying excitation sources related for example to tropospheric convection or topography. With tropospheric heating that reproduces the observed zonal jets near the tropopause and the accompanying reversal in the latitudinal temperature variation, which is conducive to baroclinic instability, long period PWs are produced that propagate up into the stratosphere to affect the wave driven equatorial oscillations (QBO and SAO) extending into the upper mesosphere. The PWs in the model that dominate higher up in the MLT region, however, are to a large extent produced by instabilities under the influence of the zonal circulation and temperature variations in the middle atmosphere and they are amplified by GW interactions. Three classes of PWs are generated there. (1) Rossby waves that slowly propagate westward but are carried by the zonal mean (m = 0) winds to produce eastward and westward propagating PWs respectively in the winter and summer hemispheres below 80 km. Depending on the zonal wave number and magnitudes of the zonal winds under the influence of the equatorial oscillations, the PWs typically have periods between 2 and 20 days and their horizontal wind amplitudes can exceed 40 m/s in the lower mesosphere. (2) Rossby gravity waves that propagate westward at low latitudes, having periods around 2 days for zonal wave numbers m = 2 to 4. (3) Eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves generated in the upper mesosphere with periods between 2 and 3 days for m = 1 & 2. The seasonal variations of the PWs reveal that the largest wind amplitudes tend to occur below 80 km in the winter hemisphere, but above that altitude in the summer hemisphere to approach magnitudes as large as 50 m/s.

Mengel, J. G.↗

Computational predictions of flame spread over alcohol pools

The effects of buoyancy and thermocapillarity on pulsating and uniform flame spread above n-propanol fuel pools have been studied using a numerical model. Data obtained indicate that the existence of pulsating flame spread is dependent upon the formation of a gas-phase recirculation cell which entrains evaporating fuel vapor in front of the leading edge of the flame. The size of the recirculation cell which is affected by the extent of liquid motion ahead of the flame, is shown to dictate whether flame spread is uniform or pulsating. The amplitude and period of the flame pulsations are found to be proportional to the maximum extent of the flow head. Under conditions considered, liquid motion was not affected appreciably by buoyancy. Horizontal convection in the liquid is the dominant mechanism for transporting heat ahead of the flame for both the pulsating and uniform regimes.

Schiller, D. N.↗

Deterrent Concentration Measurement with FTIR and Subsequent Ballistic Performance in Medium Caliber Propellant

To meet ballistic requirements, medium and small caliber propellants use deterrent coatings to obtain burn rate progressivity. The required amount and distribution of deterrent varies between gun systems, propellant types, and often between lots. Micro Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to measure deterrent gradients in RP36 propellants coated with methyl centralite (MC) at different deterrent levels and different processing conditions. The aromatic C-C bonds at 1496 cm(exp -1) wavenumber were used to monitor the deterrent profiles through the grain. Deterrent gradients measured with FTIR spectroscopy were then used to estimate burn rate gradients in the deterred grains. Burn rates were calculated from literature models and from closed bomb data of RP36 containing uniform deterrent concentration. Finally, the burn rate gradients were input into an IBHFG2 model of a 200 cc-closed bomb. The early flame spreading portion of the closed bomb ballistic cycle (0 to 0.2 P/Pmax) was roughly modeled by dividing the charge up into five propellant decks and igniting them at different times in the ballistic cycle. Pressure traces and vivacity curves from closed bomb shots were compared to predictions. In addition to the burn rate gradient, the closed bomb pressure trace was heavily dependent on ignition and flame spread. These two phenomena were not readily distinguishable from one another in deterred grains. The same RP-36 propellant was shot in a 25 mm M793TP round which was again modeled with IBHVG2. Peak pressure and muzzle velocity were accurately modeled when erosive burning effects were empirically factored into the model.

Furrow, Keith W.↗

Impact of confined geometries on hopping and trapping of motile bacteria in porous media

We use a random walk particle-tracking (RWPT) approach to elucidate the impact of porous media confinement and cell-cell interactions on bacterial transport. The model employs stochastic alternating motility states consisting of hopping movement and trapping reorientation. The stochastic motility patterns are defined based on direct visualization of individual trajectory data. We validate our model against experimental data, at single-cell resolution, of bacterial E. coli motion in three-dimensional confined porous media. Results show that the model is able to efficiently simulate the spreading dynamics of motile bacteria as it captures the impact of cell-cell interaction and pore confinement, which marks the transition to a late-time subdiffusive regime. Furthermore, the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the observed directional persistence. Lastly, our RWPT model constitutes a meshless simple method which is easy to implement and does not invoke ad hoc assumptions but represents the basis for a multiscale approach to the study of bacterial dispersal in porous systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Gas Bubbles From a Submarine Hydrocarbon Seep Within the Hydrate Stability Zone

We validate a new model for mass transfer and bubble transport for natural seeps on the continental margins using an integrated observation of a seep at 883 m in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In the model, mass transfer is assumed to transition from clean to dirty bubble mass transfer rates following a characteristic hydrate formation time that depends on the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate subcooling. We show that buoyancy-induced upwelling is negligible for the bubble stream. We initialize the model using precise data observed at the seafloor and validate the model results to optical and acoustic measurements within the bubble stream. The model accurately predicts the acoustic attenuation of the bubble flare by lateral spreading and bubble shrinkage throughout the water column. In conclusion, the model shows that up to 99.4% by mass of the released gases from this seep dissolves into the ocean within the hydrate stability zone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Modeling Planetary Waves in the Middle Atmosphere

In our 3D Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization of Hines, planetary waves are generated with zonal wavenumbers 1-4 that have amplitudes as large as 25 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated spontaneously, i.e., without external source, and presumably represent normal modes. Numerical experiments are discussed to shed light on the generation mechanisms. For the wavenumbers 1 and 2 with periods primarily between 4 and 15 days, both eastward and westward propagating waves are generated and their amplitudes are affected significantly by the gravity wave source. For the wavenumbers, 3 and 4 in the upper mesosphere, the waves are virtually monochromatic, with periods around 2.5 days and they propagate westward. These waves behave like Rossby gravity waves; their amplitudes are largest during solstice where the baroclinic instability is playing an important role, but the waves decay when the gravity wave momentum source is turned off. The planetary waves generated in the model produce large amplitude modulations of the diurnal tides at altitudes above 80 km, but contrary to expectations they are not playing an important role for the seasonal variations of the tides. Preliminary results show that such Rossby gravity waves are also generated near the tropopause and are influencing significantly the QBO that is generated in the model.

Mengel, J. G.↗

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Working group on chromospheric fields - Canopies

Although there are many points of uncertainty and controversy, the working group on chromospheric fields focussed its discussion on the concept of canopies; i.e., no one disagreed that a central issue relating to magnetic fields and chromospheric models is to learn how the photospheric field spreads with height. However, it quickly became apparent that in the time available, there was little prospect of building new unified models of magnetic field phenomena in the chromosphere beyond the scope of the formal presentations. Thus, the discussion was devoted to formulating questions which seemed both possible to address in future work and important for advancing understanding of the chromosphere. It began by discussing unresolved physical issues (almost everything) and then proceeded to consider means, both observational and synthetic, to address them.

Jones, H. P.↗

Validation of two-layer model for underexpanded hydrogen jets

Previous studies have shown that the two-layer model more accurately predicts hydrogen dispersion than the conventional notional nozzle models without significantly increasing the computational expense. However, the model was only validated for predicting the concentration distribution and has not been adequately validated for predicting the velocity distributions. In the present study, particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was used to measure the velocity field of an underexpanded hydrogen jet released at 10 bar from a 1.5 mm diameter orifice. The two-layer model was the used to calculate the inlet conditions for a two-dimensional axisymmetric CFD model to simulate the hydrogen jet downstream of the Mach disk. The predicted velocity spreading and centerline decay rates agreed well with the PIV measurements. The predicted concentration distribution was consistent with data from previous planar Rayleigh scattering measurements used to verify the concentration distribution predictions in an earlier study. The jet spreading was also simulated using several widely used notional nozzle models combined with the integral plume model for comparison. These results show that the velocity and concentration distributions are both better predicted by the two-layer model than the notional nozzle models to complement previous studies verifying only the predicted concentration profiles. Thus, this study shows that the two-layer model can accurately predict the jet velocity distributions as well as the concentration distributions as verified earlier. Though more validation studies are needed to improve confidence in the model and increase the range of validity, the present work indicates that the two-layer model is a promising tool for fast, accurate predictions of the flow fields of underexpanded hydrogen jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Supersonic Jet Noise Reductions Predicted With Increased Jet Spreading Rate

In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and, at higher speeds, it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation model. Further analysis with the model shows a relationship between changes in spreading rate due to enhanced mixing and changes in the far field radiated peak noise levels. The calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of the radiated peak noise level.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

A source-sink model of the generation of plate tectonics from non-Newtonian mantle flow

A model of mantle convection which generates plate tectonics requires strain rate- or stress-dependent rheology in order to produce strong platelike flows with weak margins as well as strike-slip deformation and plate spin (i.e., toroidal motion). Here, we employ a simple model of source-sink driven surface flow to determine the form of such a rheology that is appropriate for Earth's present-day plate motions. In this model, lithospheric motion is treated as shallow layer flow driven by sources and sinks which correspond to spreading centers and subduction zones, respectively. Two plate motion models are used to derive the source sink field. As originally implied in the simpler Cartesian version of this model, the classical power law rheologies do not generate platelike flows as well as the hypothetical Whitehead-Gans stick-slip rheology (which incorporates a simple self-lubrication mechanism). None of the fluid rheologies examined, however, produce more than approximately 60% of the original maximum shear. For either plate model, the viscosity fields produced by the power law rheologies are diffuse, and the viscosity lows over strike-slip shear zones or pseudo-margins are not as small as over the prescribed convergent-divergent margins. In contrast, the stick-slip rheology generates very platelike viscosity fields, with sharp gradients at the plate boundaries, and margins with almost uniformly low viscosity. Power law rheologies with high viscosity contrasts, however, lead to almost equally favorable comparisons, though these also yield the least platelike viscosity fields. This implies that the magnitude of toroidal flow and platelike strength distributions are not necessarily related and thus may present independent constraints on the determination of a self-consistent plate-mantle rheology.

Bercovici, David↗

Applicability of the single equivalent point dipole model to represent a spatially distributed bio-electrical source

Although the single equivalent point dipole model has been used to represent well-localised bio-electrical sources, in realistic situations the source is distributed. Consequently, position estimates of point dipoles determined by inverse algorithms suffer from systematic error due to the non-exact applicability of the inverse model. In realistic situations, this systematic error cannot be avoided, a limitation that is independent of the complexity of the torso model used. This study quantitatively investigates the intrinsic limitations in the assignment of a location to the equivalent dipole due to distributed electrical source. To simulate arrhythmic activity in the heart, a model of a wave of depolarisation spreading from a focal source over the surface of a spherical shell is used. The activity is represented by a sequence of concentric belt sources (obtained by slicing the shell with a sequence of parallel plane pairs), with constant dipole moment per unit length (circumferentially) directed parallel to the propagation direction. The distributed source is represented by N dipoles at equal arc lengths along the belt. The sum of the dipole potentials is calculated at predefined electrode locations. The inverse problem involves finding a single equivalent point dipole that best reproduces the electrode potentials due to the distributed source. The inverse problem is implemented by minimising the chi2 per degree of freedom. It is found that the trajectory traced by the equivalent dipole is sensitive to the location of the spherical shell relative to the fixed electrodes. It is shown that this trajectory does not coincide with the sequence of geometrical centres of the consecutive belt sources. For distributed sources within a bounded spherical medium, displaced from the sphere's centre by 40% of the sphere's radius, it is found that the error in the equivalent dipole location varies from 3 to 20% for sources with size between 5 and 50% of the sphere's radius. Finally, a method is devised to obtain the size of the distributed source during the cardiac cycle.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Numerical modelling of instantaneous plate tectonics

Assuming lithospheric plates to be rigid, 68 spreading rates, 62 fracture zones trends, and 106 earthquake slip vectors are systematically inverted to obtain a self-consistent model of instantaneous relative motions for eleven major plates. The inverse problem is linearized and solved iteratively by a maximum-likelihood procedure. Because the uncertainties in the data are small, Gaussian statistics are shown to be adequate. The use of a linear theory permits (1) the calculation of the uncertainties in the various angular velocity vectors caused by uncertainties in the data, and (2) quantitative examination of the distribution of information within the data set. The existence of a self-consistent model satisfying all the data is strong justification of the rigid plate assumption. Slow movement between North and South America is shown to be resolvable.

Minster, J. B.↗

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with several studies suggesting an important role for present‐day biases in clouds. Here, we use three generations of GCMs to assess the value of climatological cloud metrics for constraining uncertainty in cloud feedback. We find that shortwave cloud radiative properties across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are most robustly correlated with tropical cloud feedback (TCF). Using this relationship in conjunction with observations, we produce an EC that yields a TCF value of 0.52 ± 0.34 W/m 2 /K, which equates to a 34% reduction in uncertainty. Thus, we show that climatological cloud properties can be used to reduce uncertainty in how clouds will respond to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of two gas chromatograph models and analysis of binary data

The overall objective of the gas chromatograph system studies is to generate fundamental design criteria and techniques to be used in the optimum design of the system. The particular tasks currently being undertaken are the comparison of two mathematical models of the chromatograph and the analysis of binary system data. The predictions of two mathematical models, an equilibrium absorption model and a non-equilibrium absorption model exhibit the same weaknesses in their inability to predict chromatogram spreading for certain systems. The analysis of binary data using the equilibrium absorption model confirms that, for the systems considered, superposition of predicted single component behaviors is a first order representation of actual binary data. Composition effects produce non-idealities which limit the rigorous validity of superposition.

Keba, P. S.↗

Steepened structures in equatorial spread F. 2: Theory

This paper investigates the properties of a one-dimensional fluid model of plasma convection in the equatorial F region ionosphere. The model equations are similar in form to Burgers equation except for additional higher-order spatial derivatives. Like Burgers equation, solution to the model have the form of propagating, shocklike structures. Numerical simulations of the model closely resemble the steepened structures observed by sounding rocket plasma density probes within equatorial spread F. Simulated denstiy power spectra, like the spectra computed from in situ data, seem to possess power law forms with a break at wavelengths of about 100 m. The precise wavenumber of the spectral break is determined by the ambipolar diffusion coefficient. The model predicts that electric field fluctuations perpendicular to the direction of plasma steepening should be proportional to the plasma density fluctuations. Electric field fluctuations parallel to the steepening will be due primarily to the ambipolar field and have a Boltzmann relationship with density (square of the absolute value of delta E) approximately equal to (K(exp 2))(square of the absolute value of (delta n/n)). At wavelengths less than about 300 m, the ambipolar field should be the dominant component of the total field intensity.

Hysell, D. L↗

Improved Bounds for Burning Fence Graphs

Graph burning studies how fast a contagion, modeled as a set of fires, spreads in a graph. The burning process takes place in synchronous, discrete rounds. In each round, a fire breaks out at a vertex, and the fire spreads to all vertices that are adjacent to a burning vertex. Additionally, the burning number of a graph G is the minimum number of rounds necessary for each vertex of G to burn. We consider the burning number of the \(m \times n\) Cartesian grid graphs, written \(G_{m,n}\) . For \(m = \omega (\sqrt{n})\) , the asymptotic value of the burning number of \(G_{m,n}\) was determined, but only the growth rate of the burning number was investigated in the case \(m = O(\sqrt{n})\) , which we refer to as fence graphs. We provide new explicit bounds on the burning number of fence graphs \(G_{c\sqrt{n},n}\) , where \(c > 0\) .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗