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At least 469 records · Page 26

Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Abstract Evaluation of long-term temporal and spatial climatic change in mountainous regions is a critical challenge because of the interactive effects of multiple land and climatic factors and processes. Here we present the application of the statistical framework to the assessment of changes of climatic conditions, using data from 17 meteorological stations across the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA, and spanning the period from 1966 to 2021. The framework is developed based on (1) a time-series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) evaluation and time series analysis of potential evapotranspiration (ET o ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), aridity index (AI), standard precipitation index (SPI) and standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and (3) a temporal-spatial climatic zonation of the studied area based on the hierarchical clustering and PCA analysis of the SPEI, because the SPEI can be considered an integrative characteristic of the changes of climatic conditions. The Budyko model, with the application of the Penman–Monteith equation for the estimation of ET o , was used to determine the ET. The time series analysis of the AI is used to identify the periods with energy limited and water limited conditions. Hierarchical clustering of site locations for the three temporal segments of the SPEI showed a significant temporal-spatial shifts, indicating that dynamic climatic processes drive zonation patterns. Therefore, the watershed climatic zonation requires periodic re-evaluation based on the structural time series analysis of meteorological and water balance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The mosaic structure of plasma bulk flows in the Earth's magnetotail

Moments of plasma distributions observed in the magnetotail vary with different time scales. In this paper we attempt to explain the observed variability on intermediate timescales of approximately 10-20 min that result from the simultaneous energization and spatial structuring of solar wind plasma in the distant magnetotail. These processes stimulate the formation of a system of spatially disjointed. highly accelerated filaments (beamlets) in the tail. We use the results from large-scale kinetic modeling of magnetotail formation from a plasma mantle source to calculate moments of ion distribution functions throughout the tail. Statistical restrictions related to the limited number of particles in our system naturally reduce the spatial resolution of our results, but we show that our model is valid on intermediate spatial scales Delta(x) x Delta(z) equal to approximately 1 R(sub E) x 1000 km. For these spatial scales the resulting pattern, which resembles a mosaic, appears to be quite variable. The complexity of the pattern is related to the spatial interference between beamlets accelerated at various locations within the distant tail which mirror in the strong near-Earth magnetic field. Global motion of the magnetotail results in the displacement of spacecraft with respect to this mosaic pattern and can produce variations in all of the moments (especially the x-component of the bulk velocity) on intermediate timescales. The results obtained enable us to view the magnetotail plasma as consisting of two different populations: a tailward-Earthward system of highly accelerated beamlets interfering with each other, and an energized quasithermal population which gradually builds as the Earth is approached. In the near-Earth tail, these populations merge into a hot quasi-isotropic ion population typical of the near-Earth plasma sheet. The transformation of plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) beam energy into central plasma sheet (CPS) quasi-thermal energy occurs in the absence of collisions or noise. This paper also clarifies the relationship between the global scale where an MHD description might be appropriate and the lower intermediate scales where MHD fails and large-scale kinetic theory should be used.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗

Optimized spatial information for 1990, 2000, and 2010 U.S. census microdata

Abstract We report on the successful completion of a project to upgrade the positional accuracy of every response to the 1990, 2000, and 2010 U.S. decennial censuses. The resulting data set, called Optimized Spatial Census Information Linked Across Time (OSCILAT), resides within the restricted-access data warehouse of the Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC) system where it is available for use with approval from the U.S. Census Bureau. OSCILAT greatly improves the accuracy and completeness of spatial information for older censuses conducted prior to major quality improvements undertaken by the Bureau. Our work enables more precise spatial and longitudinal analysis of census data and supports exact tabulations of census responses for arbitrary spatial units, including tabulating responses from 1990, 2000, and 2010 within 2020 block boundaries for precise measures of change over time for small geographic areas.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Influences of physical training on the heart of dogs

To investigate the effects of physical training on cardiac dimensions and function, eight dogs were exercised for 12 weeks by treadmill running 1 hour/day, 5 days/week. Five dogs were confined in cages as controls for an 8-week period. Heart rates were monitored by telemetry during rest and exercise. Maximum QRS spatial magnitudes were calculated from records of McFee lead electrocardiograms. Left ventricular end-diastolic dimensions were determined radiographically by the bead and clip technique. Training produced statistically significant decreases in heart rate at rest and at a standard work load of 6.1 mph on a level treadmill and statistically significant increases in work load at a standard heart rate of 194 beats/min. Improvements were rapid during the first 4 weeks of training but gradual during the remaining 8 weeks. Training caused small but statistically significant increases in left ventricular end-diastolic wall thickness, estimated left ventricular mass, and maximum QRS spatial magnitude.

Wyatt, H. L.↗

A statistical evaluation and comparison of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data

In order to account for the temporal and spatial discrepancies between the VAS and rawinsonde soundings, the rawinsonde data were adjusted to a common hour of release where the new observation time corresponded to the satellite scan time. Both the satellite and rawinsonde observations of the basic atmospheric parameters (T Td, and Z) were objectively analyzed to a uniform grid maintaining the same mesoscale structure in each data set. The performance of each retrieval algorithm in producing accurate and representative soundings was evaluated using statistical parameters such as the mean, standard deviation, and root mean square of the difference fields for each parameter and grid level. Horizontal structure was also qualitatively evaluated by examining atmospheric features on constant pressure surfaces. An analysis of the vertical structure of the atmosphere were also performed by looking at colocated and grid mean vertical profiles of both the satellite and rawinsonde data sets. Highlights of these results are presented.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models

Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.

biomass↗

Guiding the Design of Heterogeneous Electrode Microstructures for Li-Ion Batteries: Microscopic Imaging, Predictive Modeling, and Machine Learning

Electrochemical and mechanical properties of lithium-ion battery materials are heavily dependent on their 3D microstructure characteristics. A quantitative understanding of the role played by stochastic microstructures is critical for the prediction of material properties and for guiding synthesis processes. Furthermore, tailoring microstructure morphology is also a viable way of achieving optimal electrochemical and mechanical performances of lithium-ion cells. To facilitate the establishment of microstructure-resolved modeling and design methods, a review covering spatially and temporally resolved imaging of microstructure and electrochemical phenomena, microstructure statistical characterization and stochastic reconstruction, microstructure-resolved modeling for property prediction, and machine learning for microstructure design is presented here. The perspectives on the unresolved challenges and opportunities in applying experimental data, modeling, and machine learning to improve the understanding of materials and identify paths toward enhanced performance of lithium-ion cells are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Preface to special topic: The High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics

High-repetition-rate (HRR) experiments can collect large datasets with high temporal, spatial, and/or parametric resolution or large numbers of repeat measurements for statistics. HRR experiments also enable new experimental designs, including active feedback control loops and novel diagnostics, that can improve the reproducibility as well as the quantity of measurements. Together, these attributes make HRR experiments ideal for performing high-quality repeatable science. Until recently, these techniques have not been applied to high-energy-density–physics (HEDP) experiments, which are typically restricted to repetition rates of a few per day. However, recent advancements in lasers, pulsed-power drivers, target fabrication, and diagnostics are starting to change this fact, opening an exciting new frontier of HRR HEDP experiments. A mini-conference on this subject at the 2021 meeting of the American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics brought together members of this growing community. As a result, the “High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics” special topic in Physics of Plasmas highlights current progress in this exciting area.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Beyond Contrast Transfer: Spectral SNR as a Finite-Dose Metric for STEM Phase Retrieval

The contrast transfer function (CTF) is widely used to evaluate phase retrieval methods in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), including center-of-mass imaging, parallax imaging, direct ptychography, and iterative ptychography. However, the CTF reflects only the maximum usable signal, neglecting the effects of finite electron fluence and the Poisson-limited nature of detection. As a result, it can significantly overestimate practical performance, especially in low-dose regimes. Here, we employ the spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SSNR), as a finite-dose statistical framework to evaluate the recoverable signal as a function of spatial frequency. Using numerical reconstructions of white-noise objects, we show that center-of-mass, parallax, and direct ptychography exhibit dose-independent SSNRs, with close-form analytic expressions. In contrast, iterative ptychography exhibits a surprising dose dependence: at low fluence, its SSNR converges to that of direct ptychography; at high fluence, it saturates at a value consistent with the maximum detective quantum efficiency predicted by recent quantum Fisher information bounds. The results highlight the limitations of CTF-based evaluation and motivate SSNR as a more accurate, finite-dose metric for assessing STEM phase retrieval methods.

STEM phase retrieval↗

Detection of spatial clustering in the 1000 richest SDSS DR8 redMaPPer clusters with nearest neighbor distributions

ABSTRACT Distances to the k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) data points from volume-filling query points are a sensitive probe of spatial clustering. Here, we present the first application of kNN summary statistics to observational clustering measurement, using the 1000 richest redMaPPer clusters (0.1 ≤ z ≤ 0.3) from the SDSS DR8 catalog. A clustering signal is defined as a difference in the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of kNN distances from fixed query points to the observed clusters versus a set of unclustered random points. We find that the k = 1, 2-NN CDFs of redMaPPer deviate significantly from the randoms’ across scales of 35 to 155 Mpc, which is a robust signature of clustering. In addition to kNN, we also measure the two-point correlation function for the same set of redMaPPer clusters versus random points, which shows a noisier and less significant clustering signal within the same radial scales. Quantitatively, the χ2 distribution for both the kNN-CDFs and the two-point correlation function measured on the randoms peak at χ2 ∼ 50 (null hypothesis), whereas the kNN-CDFs (χ2 ∼ 300, p = 1.54 × 10−36) pick up a much more significant clustering signal than the two-point function (χ2 ∼ 100, p = 1.16 × 10−6) when measured on redMaPPer. Finally, the measured 3NN and 4NN CDFs deviate from the predicted k = 3, 4-NN CDFs assuming an ideal Gaussian field, indicating a non-Gaussian clustering signal for redMaPPer clusters, although its origin might not be cosmological due to observational systematics. Therefore, kNN serves as a more sensitive probe of clustering complementary to the two point correlation function, providing a novel approach for constraining cosmology and galaxy–halo connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of the nonlinear propagation of incoherent pulses

The nonlinear propagation of incoherent optical pulses is studied using a normalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation and statistical analysis, demonstrating various regimes that depend on the field’s coherence time and intensity. The quantification of the resulting intensity statistics using probability density functions shows that, in the absence of spatial effects, nonlinear propagation leads to an increase in the likelihood of high intensities in a medium with negative dispersion, and a decrease in a medium with positive dispersion. In the latter regime, nonlinear spatial self-focusing originating from a spatial perturbation can be mitigated, depending on the coherence time and amplitude of the perturbation. These results are benchmarked against the Bespalov–Talanov analysis applied to strictly monochromatic pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Upsampling Monte Carlo Reactor Simulation Tallies in Depleted Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Assemblies Using a Convolutional Neural Network

The computational demand of neutron Monte Carlo transport simulations can increase rapidly with the spatial and energy resolution of tallied physical quantities. Convolutional neural networks have been used to increase the resolution of Monte Carlo simulations of light water reactor assemblies while preserving accuracy with negligible additional computational cost. Here, we show that a convolutional neural network can also be used to upsample tally results from Monte Carlo simulations of sodium-cooled fast reactor assemblies, thereby extending the applicability beyond thermal systems. The convolutional neural network model is trained using neutron flux tallies from 300 procedurally generated nuclear reactor assemblies simulated using OpenMC. Validation and test datasets included 16 simulations of procedurally generated assemblies, and a realistic simulation of a European sodium-cooled fast reactor assembly was included in the test dataset. We show the residuals between the high-resolution flux tallies predicted by the neural network and high-resolution Monte Carlo tallies on relative and absolute bases. The network can upsample tallies from simulations of fast reactor assemblies with diverse and heterogeneous materials and geometries by a factor of two in each spatial and energy dimension. The network’s predictions are within the statistical uncertainty of the Monte Carlo tallies in almost all cases. This includes test assemblies for which burnup values and geometric parameters were well outside the ranges of those in assemblies used to train the network.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spectroscopic Orbits of Subsystems in Multiple Stars. VII

Spectroscopic orbits of main-sequence stars HIP 3150A, 6873B, 11537A, 22531A, 22534B, 31089B, 49336A, 104833C, and 107731A belonging to eight multiple systems are determined from high-resolution spectra taken with CHIRON. Two of those are twins with mass ratios above 0.95. HIP 11537 is a young three-tier quadruple system with inner periods of 22.3 and 1146 days and the outer period of 3 kyr. HIP 22531 (ι Pic) is the brightest star in a hierarchical system with six components. It is a spectroscopic binary with periods of 1.56 days and 2.75 yr, as well as a γ Dor variable with a period of 0.67 day, possibly in a 7:3 resonance with the inner orbit. HIP 22534, also member of this system, is a double-lined binary with a period of 208 days. For HIP 31089, both the spectro-interferometric 32 yr outer orbit and the 213 day orbit of the subsystem are determined. HIP 107731 is a triple system with an inner period of 470 days and a fast spatial motion, likely metal-poor. New orbits contribute to the statistics of hierarchical multiplicity in the solar neighborhood.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radio physics of the sun; Proceedings of the Symposium, University of Maryland, College Park, Md., August 7-10, 1979

Papers are presented in the areas of the radio characteristics of the quiet sun and active regions, the centimeter, meter and decameter wavelength characteristics of solar bursts, space observations of low-frequency bursts, theoretical interpretations of solar active regions and bursts, joint radio, visual and X-ray observations of active regions and bursts, and the similarities of stellar radio characteristics to solar radio phenomena. Specific topics include the centimeter and millimeter wave characteristics of the quiet sun, radio fluctuations arising upon the transit of shock waves through the transition region, microwave, EUV and X-ray observations of active region loops and filaments, interferometric observations of 35-GHz radio bursts, emission mechanisms for radio bursts, the spatial structure of microwave bursts, observations of type III bursts, the statistics of type I bursts, and the numerical simulation of type III bursts. Attention is also given to the theory of type IV decimeter bursts, Voyager observations of type II and III bursts at kilometric wavelengths, radio and whitelight observations of coronal transients, and the possibility of obtaining radio observations of current sheets on the sun.

Kundu, M. R.↗

Variability in the power spectrum of solar five-minute oscillations

It is noted that two-dimensional power spectra of solar five-minute oscillations exhibit prominent ridge structures in (k, omega) space, k being the horizontal wavenumber and omega the temporal frequency. The positions of these ridges in k and omega can be used in probing temperature and velocity structures in the subphotosphere. The progress made in a program to establish whether power spectra taken on separate days show shifts in ridge locations is surveyed, noting that these may arise from different velocity and temperature patterns having been brought into the sampling region by solar rotation. Power spectra are obtained for six days of observations of Doppler velocities using the Mg I 5173 A and Fe I 5434 A spectral lines. Each data set encompasses 8 to 11 hr in time and samples a region 256 x 1024 arcsec in spatial extent, with a spatial resolution of 2 arcsec and temporal sampling of 65 s. Statistically significant shifts are detected in ridge locations between certain data sets. When analyzed in terms of eastward and westward propagating waves, the character of these displacements is seen as implying that changes have occurred in both temperature and horizontal velocity fields underlying the observing window. The velocity changes are estimated to be of the order of 100 m/s.

Hill, F.↗

PIPS: A Procedure for Interactive Pyramid Segmentation

The Procedure for Interactive Pyramid Segementation was designed to identify regions of spatially connected and spectrally homogeneous pixels in multispectral image data, and to allow these regions to be interactively manipulated without the use of processing parameters. The objective is to provide the user with the capability to easily extract and identify regions corresponding to target objects of interest. The approach is to segment a multispectral image into a set of regions and to allow the analyst to interactively refine the segmentation by direct manipulation. The user can elect to: interactively display maps of the spatial distribution of regions for any designated image subset; display the statistics of a given region; and label, merge, or split regions.

Wharton, S. W.↗

Evaluating the design of satellite scanning radiometers for earth radiation budget measurements with system simulations. Part 1: Instantaneous estimates

A set of system simulations was performed to evaluate candidate scanner configurations to fly as a part of the Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) on the polar platforms during the 1990's. The simulation is considered of instantaneous sampling (without diurnal averaging) of the longwave and shortwave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). After measurement and subsequent inversion to the TOA, the measured fluxes were compared to the reference fluxes for 2.5 deg lat/long resolution targets. The reference fluxes at this resolution are obtained by integrating over the 25 x 25 = 625 grid elements in each target. The differences between each of these two resultant spatially averaged sets of target measurements (errors) are taken and then statistically summarized. Five instruments are considered: (1) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR); (2) the ERBE Cross Track Scanner; (3) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner; (4) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument (CERES-1); and (5) the Active Cavity Array (ACA). Identical studies of instantaneous error were completed for many days, two seasons, and several satellite equator crossing longitudes. The longwave flux errors were found to have the same space and time characteristics as for the shortwave fluxes, but the errors are only about 25 pct. of the shortwave errors.

Stowe, Larry↗

Total-sky and clear-sky variability of outgoing longwave radiation and shortwave radiation and its relation to cloud fluctuation statistics

Correlation statistics are used to investigate some of the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of the day-to-day changes in cloudiness which tend to dominate the variance of outgoing LW radiation and SW radiation fields. The temporal decorrelation time of the radiation field as measured by the lag time required for the autocorrelation of a region to fall to 0.4 is about 12 hours in the midlatitude storm track. Decorrelation time approaches one to two days when the averaging area of the region is increased significantly. Decorrelation times are also longer in the equatorial and tropical regions. The short decorrelation times are a manifestation of the creation, breakup, and movement of cloud systems. Cross-correlation analysis of the radiation field in the midlatitude storm track region and the subtropical dry zone shows advection speeds that range from about 25 m/sec in the storm tracks to about 8 m/sec in the subtropical dry zone.

Bess, T. D.↗