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Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning
A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.
Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability
The solar industry in the US typically uses a credit score such as the FICO score as an indicator of consumer utility payment performance and credit worthiness to approve customers for new solar installations. Using data on over 800,000 utility payment performance and over 5,000 demographic variables, we compare machine learning and econometric models to predict the probability of default to credit-score cutoffs. Here, we compare these models across a variety of measures, including how they affect consumers of different socio-economic backgrounds and profitability. We find that a traditional regression analysis using a small number of variables specific to utility repayment performance greatly increases accuracy and LMI inclusivity relative to FICO score, and that using machine learning techniques further enhances model performance. Relative to FICO, the machine learning model increases the number of low-to-moderate income consumers approved for community solar by 1.1% to 4.2% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers, while decreasing the default rate by 1.4 to 1.9 percentage points. Using electricity utility repayment as a proxy for solar installation repayment, shifting from a FICO score cutoff to the machine learning model increases profits by 34% to 1882% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers.
Solar wind rare gas analysis: Trapped solar wind helium and neon in Surveyor 3 material
The He-4 and Ne-20 contents in sections of the Surveyor 3 support strut samples were determined by optical and scanning electron microscopy and are compared to the results of the Apollo solar wind composition (SWC) experiments. The He-4/Ne-20 ratio in the samples from the sunlit side of the strut was approximately 300; the ratios determined in Apollo 12 lunar fines and SWC foil were below 100. The He-4/He-3 ratios were also determined, and the ratio obtained from Surveyor 3 material is higher than those found with Apollo 11 and 12 SWC experiments. The effects of spallation by cosmic rays or solar protons, stripping by cosmic ray or energetic solar alpha particles, recycling of solar wind He and radiogenic Ne, He from terrestrial atmosphere, mass discrimination near the moon, mass dependence of trapping probability, diffusion, and contamination by lunar dust are considered.
The solar wind near the sun - The solar envelope.
Recent observational data and models for the structure of the solar envelope are discussed, with emphasis on those physical processes in the envelope which are decisive in determining solar wind states at 1 AU. Diffusion of relativistic solar flare protons, collisionless damping of a variable flux of hydromagnetic waves, heat transfer from electrons to protons, acceleration by Alfven waves, and magnetic field effects are examined from the viewpoint of possible contributions to solar wind behavior.
Solar array study for solar electric propulsion spacecraft for the Encke rendezvous mission
The work is described which was performed on the design, analysis and performance of a 20 kW rollup solar array capable of meeting the design requirements of a solar electric spacecraft for the 1980 Encke rendezvous mission. To meet the high power requirements of the proposed electric propulsion mission, solar arrays on the order of 186.6 sq m were defined. Because of the large weights involved with arrays of this size, consideration of array configurations is limited to lightweight, large area concepts with maximum power-to-weight ratios. Items covered include solar array requirements and constraints, array concept selection and rationale, structural and electrical design considerations, and reliability considerations.
Comparative evaluation of solar, fission, fusion, and fossil energy resources. Part 1: Solar energy
The utilization of solar energy to meet the energy needs of the U.S. is discussed. Topics discussed include: availability of solar energy, solar energy collectors, heating for houses and buildings, solar water heater, electric power generation, and ocean thermal power.
Solar flare particles - Energy-dependent composition and relationship to solar composition
Plastic and glass track detectors on rockets and Apollo spacecraft have been used to determine the composition of particles from He to Ni at energies from 0.1 to 50 MeV per nucleon in several solar flares of widely varying intensities. At low energies the composition of solar particles is enriched in heavy elements by an amount, relative to the asymptotic high-energy composition, that increases with atomic number from Z = 2 up to at least Z = 50, that decreases with energy, and that varies from flare to flare. At high energies (usually beyond an energy of 5 to 20 MeV per nucleon) the composition becomes independent of energy and, though somewhat variable from flare to flare, approximates the composition of the solar atmosphere. A table of abundances of the even-Z elements from He to Ni (plus N) in solar particles is constructed by averaging the asymptotic high-energy abundances in several flares.
Flat-plate solar-collector performance evaluation with a solar simulator as a basis for collector selection and performance prediction
This paper reports the measured thermal efficiency and evaluation of 23 collectors which differ according to absorber material (copper, aluminum, steel), absorber coating (nonselective black paint, selective copper oxide, selective black nickel, selective black chrome), type of glazing material (glass, Tedlar, Lexan, anti-reflection glass), the use of honeycomb material and the use of vacuum to prevent thermal convection losses. The collectors are given performance rankings based on noon-hour solar conditions and all-day solar conditions. The determination with the simulator of an all-day collector performance is made possible by tests at different incident angles. The solar performance rankings are made based on whether the collector is to be used for pool heating, hot water, absorption air conditioning, heating, or for a solar Rankine machine.
A possible correlation between maxima of the far ultraviolet solar irradiance and central meridian passages of solar magnetic sector boundaries
Satellite observations of the sun over almost 5 yrs show that principally two UV active longitudes have persisted over a significant portion of this observational period. A comparison between the position of solar magnetic sector boundaries and UV enhancements of the sun seems to show, at least during the year 1969, that the UV maxima tend to occur near the times when a solar sector boundary is near central meridian. An estimate of the magnitude of the variable UV solar energy input into the atmosphere resulting from the rotation of active solar longitudes is that for wavelengths less than 175 nm and down to H Lyman-alpha it exceeds the annual variation, whereas at longer wavelengths it is less.
Solar seismology. I - The stability of the solar p-modes
The stability of the radial p-modes of the sun is investigated by computing nonadiabatic eigenvalues and eigenfunctions for a solar envelope model which extends from an inner radius of about 0.3 solar radius out to an optical depth of about 0.0003. The calculations take into account in a crude fashion the response of the convective flux to the oscillation. The dynamical effect of turbulence in the convection zone is parametrized in terms of a turbulent shear viscosity. The results show that if damping by turbulent viscosity is neglected, all modes with periods longer than 6 minutes are unstable. The familiar kappa-mechanism, which operates in the H ionization-H(-) opacity region, is the dominant source of driving of the oscillations. Modes with periods shorter than 6 minutes are stabilized by radiative damping in the solar atmosphere. When turbulent dissipation of pulsational energy is included, all modes are predicted to be stable. However, the margin of stability is very small. In view of the large uncertainty that must be assigned to the estimate of turbulent damping, it is concluded that theoretical calculations cannot unequivocally resolve the question of the stability of the solar p-modes.
Verification test of the MSFC solar simulator using a Honeywell double-covered liquid solar collector
Additional verification data to support the utilization of the MSFC Solar Simulator for testing solar collectors was obtained. The Honeywell double-covered liquid solar collector number 2 for which thermal performance data under natural outdoor conditions had been previously obtained was installed on the Solar Simulator and subjected to a series of eight tests under various conditions of wind flow rate. Although these test conditions were not absolutely identical to those of the outdoor tests, they are considered to be sufficiently representative to provide a basis for an accurate comparative analysis of the data recorded for both test programs.
Preliminary design package for solar collector and solar pump
A solar-operated pump using an existing solar collector, for use on solar heating and cooling and hot water systems is described. Preliminary design criteria of the collector and solar-powered pump is given including: design drawings, verification plans, and hazard analysis.
Solar power satellites - Heat engine or solar cells
A solar power satellite is the energy-converting element of a system that can deliver some 10 GW of power to utilities on the earth's surface. We evaluated heat engines and solar cells for converting sunshine to electric power at the satellite. A potassium Rankine cycle was the best of the heat engines, and 50 microns thick single-crystal silicon cells were the best of the photovoltaic converters. Neither solar cells nor heat engines had a clear advantage when all factors were considered. The potassium-turbine power plant, however, was more difficult to assemble and required a more expensive orbital assembly base. We therefore based our cost analyses on solar-cell energy conversion, concluding that satellite-generated power could be delivered to utilities for around 4 to 5 cents a kWh.
Solar constant - Constraints on possible variations derived from solar diameter measurements
Climatically significant variation of the solar constant (the energy output of the sun) implies measurable change in the solar radius. The available data limit variations of the solar radius between 1850 and 1937 to about 0.25 arc second; modeling of the sun indicates that the solar constant did not vary by more than 0.3 percent during that time.
Solar cycle changes in the high latitude solar wind
Measurements of the solar wind velocity during the period 1971-79 using the technique of interplanetary scintillation are discussed. The average wind speed was faster than 500 km/s at latitudes above 30 deg for most of 1973-77. The fast polar stream, observed to become much narrower in 1978-79 is examined. The narrowing of the polar streams coincided with the emergence of sunspots at midlatitudes, with the start of the new solar cycle, and with a corresponding contraction of the polar coronal holes. The theory that the solar magnetic field controls the large scale structure of the solar wind is discussed in relation to the results.
Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity
The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.