Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Simulation model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

XE-100 modeling and simulation for neutronic analysis in MCNP6.2

XE-100 is a generation IV helium-cooled, graphite-moderated, pebble-bed reactor (HTGR). As part of the pathway toward a conceptually designing and licensing this reactor, an independent Monte Carlo model was created in MCNP6.2, and several distinct neutronic analyses were then performed. The double heterogeneity of TRISO fuel within graphite pebbles introduces unique modeling challenges related to particle and pebble clipping. The results show that for neutron and photon heating of ex-core components such as the reflector, RCSS, core barrel (CB), the model that contains clipping produces higher heating values. It is therefore concluded that removing clipping via compression of the particles and pebbles within the model distributes the neutrons and gammas preferentially toward the core center, and reduces the heating that is experienced toward the reactor periphery. Thus, the most conservative model for ex-core heating contains particle and pebble clipping. Also presented are results on the impact of chamfers that exist on the corners of graphite reflector blocks. As these chamfers could potentially create streaming paths, the neutron and gamma flux from the core to the CB were analyzed. It was determined that the chamfers do not significantly impact the neutron or gamma signatures on the CB, in that the shape of the neutron and photon flux on a detector imposed on the CB shows no preferential streaming path. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design Paradigm for Modular Multilevel Converter-Based Generator Rectifier Systems

Modular Multilevel Converters (MMC) are being widely considered for medium to high voltage DC applications. Designing such converters through multi-objective optimization is of interest because such an approach allows the trade-off between competing objectives (for example mass and loss) to be explicitly and quantitatively identified. In this work, an optimization based design paradigm for MMC based generator rectifier systems is proposed. Such development typically requires detailed component design and simulation models for the electric machine and converter which are computationally expensive. As an alternative, the proposed work utilizes an electric machine metamodel, inductor metamodel, and high-speed steady-state simulation model for the MMC to facilitate multi-objective optimization minimizing system metrics of interest while satisfying system constraints. A case study is undertaken to demonstrate the functionality of the proposed design paradigm.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and Modeling of Optical Properties of U, Th, Pb, and Co Nanoparticles of Interest to Nuclear Security Using Finite Element Analysis

In this work, the optical characteristics of uranium (U), lead (Pb), cobalt (Co), and thorium (Th) nanoparticles are fashioned and simulated employing the finite element analysis (FEA) approach concerning multiple particle sizes. Applying finite element analysis, it was found that the simulated absorption peaks of electronic excitations of nuclear nanoparticles are red-shifted from 365 nm to 555 nm for U; from 355 nm to 550 nm for Pb; from 415 nm to 610 nm for Co; and from 350 nm to 540 nm for Th, comparing expanding particle sizes from 60 nm to 100 nm (except for Co, which varied from 70 nm to 100 nm). The FEA-simulated optical band gap energies and far-field radiation patterns were also obtained for nuclear materials. The simulation approach in this research enables the prediction of optical properties and design of nuclear materials before manufacture for nuclear security applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). With an emphasis on supporting the DOE's energy mission, understanding and quantifying how well the model simulates water cycle processes is of particular importance. Here, we evaluate E3SM version 1.0 (v1.0) for its ability to represent atmospheric rivers (ARs), which play significant roles in water vapor transport and precipitation. The characteristics and precipitation associated with global ARs in E3SM at standard resolution (1∘ × 1∘) are compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). Global patterns of AR frequencies in E3SM show high degrees of correlation (≥0.97) with MERRA2 and low mean absolute errors (MAEs; <1 %) annually, seasonally, and across different ensemble members. However, some large-scale condition biases exist, leading to AR biases – most significant of which are the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a stronger and/or equatorward-shifted subtropical jet during boreal and austral winters, and enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer. By comparing atmosphere-only and fully coupled simulations, we attribute the sources of the biases to the atmospheric component or to a coupling response. Using relationships revealed in Dong et al. (2021), we provide evidence showing the stronger North Pacific jet in winter and the enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer, associated with E3SM's double ITCZ and related weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), respectively, which are significant sources of the AR biases found in the coupled simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting Power Systems Time-Domain Simulation Methods and Models

The changing nature of power systems dynamics is challenging present practices related to modeling and study of system-level dynamic behavior. While developing new techniques and models to handle the new modeling requirements, it is also critical to review some of the terminology used to describe existing simulation approaches and the embedded assumptions. This article provides a first-principles review of the simplifications and transformations commonly used in the formulation of time-domain simulation models. It introduces a taxonomy and classification of time-domain simulation models depending on their frequency bandwidth, network representation, and software availability. Furthermore, it focuses on the fundamental aspects of averaging techniques, and model reduction approaches that result in modeling choices, and discusses the associated challenges and opportunities of applying these methods in systems with large shares of Inverter Based Resources (IBRs). The article concludes with an illustrative simulation that compares the trajectories of an IBR-dominated system.

behavioral sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of air path heat losses at different locations in vapor compression-based clothes dryer: Quasi-steady modeling and design implications

Clothes drying is among the most power-intensive household end uses, and vapor compression-based clothes dryers offer substantial energy cost savings compared with conventional electric heater dryers. However, parasitic heat losses along the air path, that is, heat loss at the upstream of the drum, inside the drum, and at downstream of the drum, remain rarely quantified, but can strongly affect overall performance according to experiments. Here, this study enhances a vapor compression simulation model by integrating a validated drum model using a dimensionless heat-and-mass-transfer effectiveness correlation derived from 63 drying tests in the literature to form a quasi-steady dryer simulation model. The model is validated against laboratory measurements of a baseline dryer. The impact of heat losses is simulated at three locations and explored through 16 heat loss cases spanning two loads (2 and 5 kg), two airflow rates, and multiple loss distributions. For a 5 kg wet load, eliminating pre-drum and in-drum losses reduces total energy use by up to 34–35% and shortens drying time by 27–38% compared with the baseline. At a 2 kg wet load, introducing post-drum heat loss lowers energy costs by up to 23% and reduces operation time by up to 57% compared with the baseline. The results demonstrate that the impact of heat loss is location dependent. Vapor compression dryers should minimize pre-drum and in-drum losses while potentially exploiting post-drum heat dissipation to enhance the drying rate and energy cost savings.

Dryer↗
DOE OSTI2022

HFTS-1 Natural Joint Data and Engineering Summary

This report provides an analysis of engineering and geologic data collected from the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site #1 (HTSF-1) project in the southern Midland Basin, Reagan County, Texas. The site is being studied as part of the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The data collected is intended to provide a basis of understanding of the site and to construct simulation models. This report provides a summary analysis of the engineering and geologic data collected from the project to provide a basis of understanding of the site and to construct simulation models. The report examines various possible correlations in engineering properties based on natural fracture data from the program, which consisted of 11 horizontal wells, one vertical well, and one slant well. The horizontal wells are in two horizons: 1) Upper and 2) Middle Wolfcamp formations. Program data include: fracture frequency and fracture orientation data from four core runs in a slant well; fracture spacing and orientation from a vertical pilot well; laboratory triaxial testing and mineralogical determinations; and porosity results from magnetic resonance analyses from various wells, together with observations based on the data collection. In addition, available references were reviewed on the site for additional insights. As the focus of the report is on the natural system, hydraulic fracture data from the site were not examined in detail in this report. Data variability is the chief observation in examination of the database. Fracture frequency in the slant well can range from sections with values as high as five fractures per ft to sections up to 100+ ft in length with no natural observed fractures. Fracture spacing across is typically less than 10 ft, but can range up to hundreds of feet. Apparent fracturing shows the trends in two predominate orientations, E-SW and WNW-ESE, but minor variations exist. The rock units vary across the site from siliceous mudstones to calcareous mudstones, showing a general layering with depth. The laboratory properties such as strength and modulus show no apparent trend with depth, but appear to correlate with rock mineralogy with high strength and modulus values where calcium content is high. In addition, an attempt to examine variability and mineralogy on a larger scale was made using a color-coded system based on gamma ray measurements. A staged colored approach was adopted, presuming that lower gamma ray values indicate higher value of calcium content (blue scale) and that higher gamma ray values indicate higher clay mineral content (orange scale). As provided in report appendices, the system correlated well with visual examination of the slant core and the petrofabric analyses of the vertical pilot well. The results showed large variability in mineral content along the horizontal plane across the site. The change in mineral content was also rapid, on a scale less than that of the average hydraulic fracture stage length of about 180 ft.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing modifications to the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan aerosol activation parameterization (version ARG2000) to improve simulated aerosol–cloud radiative effects in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM version 13.0)

The representation of aerosol activation is a key source of uncertainty in global composition-climate model simulations of aerosol–cloud interactions. The Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (ARG) activation parameterization is used in several global and regional models that employ modal aerosol microphysics schemes. In this study, we investigate the ability of the ARG parameterization to reproduce simulations with a cloud parcel model and find its performance is sensitive to the geometric standard deviations (widths) of the lognormal aerosol modes. We recommend adjustments to three constant parameters in the ARG equations, which improve the performance of the parameterization for small mode widths and its ability to simulate activation in polluted conditions. For the accumulation mode width of 1.4 used in the Met Office Unified Model (UM), the modifications decrease the mean bias in the activated fraction of aerosols compared to a cloud parcel model from −6.6 % to +1.2 %. We implemented the improvements in the UM and compared simulated global cloud droplet concentrations with satellite observations. The simulated cloud radiative effect changes by −1.43 W m −2 (6 %) and aerosol indirect radiative forcing over the industrial period changes by −0.10 W m −2 (10 %).

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale modeling of solute diffusion in triblock copolymer membranes

We develop a multiscale simulation model for diffusion of solutes through porous triblock copolymer membranes. The approach combines two techniques: self-consistent field theory (SCFT) to predict the structure of the self-assembled, solvated membrane and on-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations to model diffusion of solutes. Solvation is simulated in SCFT by constraining the glassy membrane matrix while relaxing the brush-like membrane pore coating against the solvent. The kMC simulations capture the resulting solute spatial distribution and concentration-dependent local diffusivity in the polymer-coated pores; we parameterize the latter using particle-based simulations. We apply our approach to simulate solute diffusion through nonequilibrium morphologies of a model triblock copolymer, and we correlate diffusivity with structural descriptors of the morphologies. We also compare the model’s predictions to alternative approaches based on simple lattice random walks and find our multiscale model to be more robust and systematic to parameterize. Furthermore, our multiscale modeling approach is general and can be readily extended in the future to other chemistries, morphologies, and models for the local solute diffusivity and interactions with the membrane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

PyOED: An Extensible Suite for Data Assimilation and Model-Constrained Optimal Design of Experiments

This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of RMS Current in CSI Filter Capacitor and Minimum Conduction Loss Operation of CSI-Fed PMSM Drives for Traction Applications

This paper presents a new minimum conduction loss (MCL) torque control algorithm for current source inverter- (CSI-) fed permanent-magnet synchronous machine drives that improves the overall machine drive efficiency by minimizing the combined conduction losses in the inverter and machine at each operating point. First, analytical models of conduction losses in CSI-fed motor drives are presented, and a closed-form expression for optimal d-axis stator current to achieve MCL operation is derived. An expression for the rms current in both wye- and delta-connected CSI output capacitors is derived. A detailed simulation model that emulates the operation of a 100 kW SiC CSI-fed integrated machine drive (IMD) has been developed based on experimental results and finite element analysis. This simulation model is used to evaluate the proposed MCL control algorithm applied to a CSI-fed IMD system for a battery-electric vehicle traction drive, and the predicted total drive system loss with MCL control is compared to predicted losses with maximum-torque-per-ampere (MTPA) and minimum dc-link current (MDCC) control. Results show that MCL control can achieve loss reductions compared to the other two control algorithms over a wide range of operating conditions, with significant loss reductions >20% in the medium-speed regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗