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At least 469 records · Page 26

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Investigation of a Water-Pond Arresting of a Dynamic Model of a Jet Transport

Brief dynamic-model tests have been made at the request of the Federal Aviation Agency to investigate the use of a shallow pond of water at the end of a runway as a means of arresting jet-transport aircraft when they are forced to abort on take-off or overrun on landing. Such a scheme is of particular interest for civil aircraft because it requires no modifications or attachments to the airplane and no mechanical devices in the arresting system. A modification of this scheme that uses a flexible plastic cover over the water surface has also been tested. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a dynamic model investigation which would aid in determining whether the water-pond arresting system could be used as a means of arresting airplane overrun.

Thompson, William C.↗

D/H Isotope Fractionation During H Diffusion Loss from Clinopyroxene Evidenced in Martian Nakhlites

Knowing the distribution and origin of water in terrestrial planets is crucial to understand their formation, evolution and the source of their atmospheres and surface water. Mantle D/H ratios may be used to determine what type of material contributed water to the terrestrial planets [1]. However, other processes, magmatic or surface alteration processes, can also modify D/H ratios, and for Mars, we only have samples from the crust, as meteorites. The D/H ratio of igneous phases of Martian meteorites is generally explained in terms of the mixing contributions of two reservoirs: surficial with high D/H (dD > 700 ‰) related to interaction with the martian atmosphere (dD ~ 5000‰), and mantle-derived with lower D/H (dD < 500 ‰ but the exact value is still debated)[2]. However, our present study evidences that H loss in clinopyroxene during degassing can significantly fractionate H isotopes and increase their D/H ratios. In situ analyses of H isotopes, and of water, major and trace element contents were performed on the pyroxenes of 5 nakhlites. Nakhlites are clinopyroxenites that likely originated from the same lava flow or shallow magma chamber. Water contents decrease (380 to <5 ppm H2O) with increasing dD (-268 to 4860 ‰). Significant influence from spallation, exchange with the martian atmosphere, shock, surface alteration, and hydrothermal processes is ruled out. Together with the evidence of less water at the edge of individual pyroxene grains compared to their interior, we interpret this correlation as the result of preferential diffusive loss of H relative to D from the already crystallized pyroxenes during ascent of the partially-crystallized magma. Similar H isotope fractionations have been observed in another nominally anhydrous mineral, garnet, during experimental dehydration [3]. These results emphasize that caution is warranted when interpreting H isotope analyses of igneous, nominally anhydrous minerals in terms of planetary processes.

Peslier, A. H.↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

Evaluation↗

Evaluation of a Model-Based Groundwater Drought Indicator in the Conterminous U.S.

Monitoring groundwater drought using land surface models is a valuable alternative given the current lack of systematic in situ measurements at continental and global scales and the low resolution of current remote sensing based groundwater data. However, uncertainties inherent to land surface models may impede drought detection, and thus should be assessed using independent data sources. In this study, we evaluated a groundwater drought index (GWI) derived from monthly groundwater storage output from the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) using a GWI similarly derived from in situ groundwater observations. Groundwater observations were obtained from unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in eight regions of the central and northeastern U.S. Regional average GWI derived from CLSM exhibited strong correlation with that from observation wells, with correlation coefficients between 0.43 and 0.92. GWI from both in situ data and CLSM was generally better correlated with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 and 24 month timescales than at shorter timescales, but it varied depending on climate conditions. The correlation between CLSM derived GWI and SPI generally decreases with increasing depth to the water table, which in turn depends on both bedrock depth (a CLSM parameter) and mean annual precipitation. The persistence of CLSM derived GWI is spatially varied and again shows a strong influence of depth to groundwater. CLSM derived GWI generally persists longer than GWI derived from in situ data, due at least in part to the inability of coarse model inputs to capture high frequency meteorological variability at local scales. The study also showed that groundwater can have a significant impact on soil moisture persistence where the water table is shallow. Soil moisture persistence was estimated to be longer in the eastern U.S. than in the west, in contrast to previous findings that were based on models that did not represent groundwater. Assimilation of terrestrial water storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission improved the correlation between CLSM based regional average GWI and that based on in situ data in six of the eight regions. Practical issues regarding the application of GRACE assimilated groundwater storage for drought detection are discussed. An important conclusion of this study is that model parameters that control the depth to the water table, including bedrock depth, strongly influence the evolution and persistence of simulated groundwater and require careful configuration for drought monitoring.

hydrology↗

Molecular indicators for palaeoenvironmental change in a Messinian evaporitic sequence (Vena del Gesso, Italy). II: High-resolution variations in abundances and 13C contents of free and sulphur-bound carbon skeletons in a single marl bed

The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline.

Non-NASA Center↗

Surface waves generated by shallow underwater explosions

Surface water waves generated by surface and near surface point explosions are calculated. Taking the impulse distribution imparted at the water surface by the explosion as the overriding mechanism for transferring energy of the explosive to surface wave motion, the linearized theory of Kranzer and Keller is used to obtain the wave displacement in the far field. The impulse distribution is obtained by integrating the pressure wave over an appropriate time interval on a horizontal surface just beneath the undisturbed water surface. For surface explosions, a modified form of the similarity method first used by Collins and Holt is used to obtain the flow field. In the case of submerged explosions, the flow field is estimated by making necessary modifications to Sedov's similarity solution to account for the venting that accompanies the interaction of the leading (blast) wave with the ocean surface. Surface waves generated by a charge at six depths of placement (0.15 m, 0.30 m, 0.61 m, 0.91 m, 1.37 m, 3.05 m) are considered in addition to surface explosions. The results seem to support the existence of an upper critical depth phenomenon (of the type already established for chemical explosions) for point (nuclear) explosions.

Falade, A.↗

Search for Martian fossil communities: Science strategies, sediment sites, and sample handling

The strategy for locating and sampling possible fossilized Martian organisms benefits from our experience with fossil microbial ecosystems on Earth. Evidence of early life is typically preserved as stromatolites in carbonates and cherts, and as microfossils in cherts, carbonates and shales. Stromatolites, which are laminated flat or domal structures built by microbial communities, are very likely the oldest and most widespread relics of early life. These communities flourished in supratidal to subtidal coastal benthic environments, wherever sunlight was available and where incoming sediments were insufficient to bury the communities before they became established. A logical site for such communities on Mars might be those areas in an ancient lake bed which were furthest from sediment input, but were still sufficiently shallow to have received sunlight. Therefore, although some sites within Valles Marineris might have contained ponded water, the possibly abundant sediment inputs might have overwhelmed stromatolite-like communities. Localized depressions which acted as catchment basins for ancient branched valley systems might be superior sites. Perhaps such depressions received drainage which, because of the relatively modest water discharges implied for these streams, was relatively low in transported sediment. Multiple streams converging on a single basin might have been able to maintain a shallow water environment for extended periods of time.

Desmarais, David J.↗

An evaluation of ERTS data for oceanographic uses through Great Lakes studies

The author has identified the following significant results. Prevailing wind direction on Lake Michigan is southwesterly, although during winter northwesterly stresses are common. Along the western shore the current favors a northward direction. ERTS-1 observations indicate that the southward-flowing current along the Michigan shoreline of the thumb is only reversed by southerly resultant wind stress. Along the Canadian shoreline, a northward current was observed north of Kettle Point. ERTS-1 data also reveal that a preferred southward-flowing current is found along the Detroit shoreline of Lake St. Clair. Eastward flow of surface water from the shallow western basin of Lake Erie into the middle basin is most obvious during northwesterly and northerly wind stresses. The reverse wind direction especially east and southeasterly, appear to hold the effluents from the Detroit and Maumee Rivers in the western basin. Across-lake winds from the north and south induce eddy-like circulation in surface waters of Lake Ontario. Counterclockwise alongshore flow persists in the western basin under most wind conditions.

Strong, A. E.↗

Relating land surface, water table, and weathering fronts with a conceptual valve model for headwater catchments

Knowing little about how porosity and permeability are distributed at depth, we commonly develop models of groundwater by treating the subsurface as a homogeneous black box even though porosity and permeability vary with depth. One reason for this depth variation is that infiltrating meteoric water reacts with minerals to affect porosity in localized zones called reaction fronts. We are beginning to learn to map and model these fronts beneath headwater catchments and show how they are distributed. The subsurface landscapes defined by these fronts lie subparallel to the earth-air interface but with lower relief. They can be situated above, below, or at the water table. These subsurface landscapes of reaction are important because porosity developed from weathering can control subsurface water storage. In addition, porosity often changes at the weathering fronts, and when this affects permeability significantly, the front can act like a valve that re-orients water flowing through the subsurface. We explore controls on the positions of reaction fronts under headwater landscapes by accounting for the timescales of erosion, chemical equilibration, and solute transport. One strong control on the landscape of subsurface reaction is the land surface geometry, which is in turn a function of the erosion rate. In addition, the reaction fronts, like the water table, are strongly affected by the lithology and water infiltration rate. We hypothesize that relationships among the land surface, reaction fronts, and the water table are controlled by feedbacks that can push landscapes toward an “ideal hill”. In this steady state, reaction-front valves partition water volumes into shallow and deep flowpaths. Furthermore, these flows dissolve low- and high-solubility minerals, respectively, allowing their reaction fronts to advance at the erosion rate. This conceptualization could inform better models of subsurface porosity and permeability, replacing the black box.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Haze–cloud correlations mediated by supersaturation fluctuations

Atmospheric aerosol particles that contain water-soluble components can absorb water vapor in humid environments and form either haze particles or cloud droplets, depending on supersaturation conditions. Laboratory and in situ measurements have shown that haze particles and cloud droplets often coexist and compete for available water vapor in shallow clouds and fogs, especially under polluted conditions. It is expected that more aerosol particles can form more haze particles and cloud droplets, so that the haze and cloud number concentrations are positively correlated. However, recent large-eddy simulations show that haze and cloud number concentration can be negatively correlated under extremely polluted conditions. Haze–cloud interactions across different environmental settings remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments in a convection cloud chamber with the same aerosol injection rate show that, as supersaturation forcing increases (i.e., changing from polluted to clean conditions), the covariance between haze and cloud droplet number concentration changes from negative to positive and finally to zero. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the cloud chamber with a fixed supersaturation forcing but varying aerosol injection rates show a similar result for the haze–cloud correlation: near zero in clean, mean-supersaturation-dominated activation conditions; positive in moderate, supersaturation-fluctuation-influenced activation conditions; and negative in polluted, supersaturation-fluctuation-dominated activation conditions. A theoretical covariance framework was developed to interpret this behavior based on the relative magnitude and signs of the correlations between supersaturation and the populations of haze and cloud droplets. Significantly, experiments, LES, and theory all yield the same three-regime behavior for the sign of the haze–cloud covariance. Furthermore, our results show that the haze–cloud covariance remains robust and easily measurable, thereby providing a useful metric for regime identification in the atmosphere, improving regime-aware parameterizations, and informing aerosol interventions such as fog dispersion, rainfall enhancement, and albedo modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind-driven currents in a shallow lake or sea

For shallow lakes and seas such as the great lakes (especially Lake Erie) where the depth is not much greater than the Ekman depth, the usual Ekman dynamics cannot be used to predict the wind driven currents. The necessary extension to include shallow bodies of water, given by Welander, leads to a partial differential equation for the surface displacement which in turn determines all other flow quantities. A technique for obtaining exact analytical solutions to Welander's equation for bodies of water with large class of bottom topographies which may or may not contain islands is given. It involves applying conformal mapping methods to an extension of Welander's equation into the complex plane. When the wind stress is constant (which is the usual assumption for lakes) the method leads to general solutions which hold for bodies of water of arbitrary shape (the shape appears in the solutions through a set of constants which are the coefficients in the Laurent expansion of a mapping of the particular lake geometry). The method is applied to an elliptically shaped lake and a circular lake containing an eccentrically located circular island.

Goldstein, M. E.↗

A Preliminary Assessment of ERTS Imagery for Marine Resources

The application of ERTS-1 imagery to identifying marine resources is discussed. Specific reference is made to the use of ERTS-1 for observing the onset of the spring growing season in the ocean while it occurs. ERTS-1 data is used for the following purposes: (1) location of large areas of seasonally variable biological activity, (2) measurement of water depth in shallow seas, (3) monitoring of sewer discharges, (4) assessment of erosion damage to beaches and shoreline installations, and (5) navigation through ice-filled waterways.

Ewing, G. C.↗

Application of a computerized environmental information system to master and sector planning

A computerized composite mapping system developed as an aid in the land use decision making process is described. Emphasis is placed on consideration of the environment in urban planning. The presence of alluvium, shallow bedrock, surface water, and vegetation growth are among the environmental factors considered. An analysis of the Shady Grove Sector planning is presented as an example of the use of computerized composite mapping for long range planning.

Stewart, J. C.↗

Major determinants of the biogeographic pattern of the shallow-sea fauna

The benthic shallow-sea is defined as the region of sea floor lying between the supralittoral zone at the shoreline and the impingement of the thermocline separating a warm shallow and variable portion of the water column from rather homogeneous and constant cooler waters beneath. Three types of shallow-sea provinces can be recognized: (1) one-dimensional, linear shelves; (2) two-dimensional shelves; and (3) scattered islands in two-dimensional arrays. Dispersal powers of marine invertebrates vary with developmental mode, and patterns of dispersal, endemism and speciation vary among the different provincial types. Invertebrate developmental modes vary systematically with geography, and presumably are adaptive to environmental conditions. Clades with only a single mode of development tend to be restricted to regions appropriate to that mode, significantly affecting their biogeographic patterns. The consequences of geographic and other environmental changes are reviewed.

Valentine, J. W.↗

Multipolarization P-, L-, and C-band radar for coastal zone mapping - The Louisiana example

Multipolarization P-, L-, and C-band airborne SAR data sets were acquired over a coastal zone and a forested wetland of southern Louisiana. The data sets were used with field-collected surface-parameter data in order to determine the value of SAR systems in assessing and mapping coastal-zone surface features. The coastal-zone surface features in this study are sediments, sediment distribution, and the formation of new isles and banks. Results of the data analysis indicate that the P-band radar with 68-cm wavelength is capable of detecting the submerged sediment if the area is very shallow (i.e., a water depth of less than one meter). The penetration capability of P-band radar is also demonstrated in the forested wetland area. The composition and condition of the ground surface can be detected, as well as the standing water beneath dense tree leaves.

Wu, Shih-Tseng↗

Sea surface velocities from visible and infrared multispectral atmospheric mapping sensor imagery

High resolution (100 m), sequential Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) images were used in a study to calculate advective surface velocities using the Maximum Cross Correlation (MCC) technique. Radiance and brightness temperature gradient magnitude images were formed from visible (0.48 microns) and infrared (11.12 microns) image pairs, respectively, of Chandeleur Sound, which is a shallow body of water northeast of the Mississippi delta, at 145546 GMT and 170701 GMT on 30 Mar. 1989. The gradient magnitude images enhanced the surface water feature boundaries, and a lower cutoff on the gradient magnitudes calculated allowed the undesirable sunglare and backscatter gradients in the visible images, and the water vapor absorption gradients in the infrared images, to be reduced in strength. Requiring high (greater than 0.4) maximum cross correlation coefficients and spatial coherence of the vector field aided in the selection of an optimal template size of 10 x 10 pixels (first image) and search limit of 20 pixels (second image) to use in the MCC technique. Use of these optimum input parameters to the MCC algorithm, and high correlation and spatial coherence filtering of the resulting velocity field from the MCC calculation yielded a clustered velocity distribution over the visible and infrared gradient images. The velocity field calculated from the visible gradient image pair agreed well with a subjective analysis of the motion, but the velocity field from the infrared gradient image pair did not. This was attributed to the changing shapes of the gradient features, their nonuniqueness, and large displacements relative to the mean distance between them. These problems implied a lower repeat time for the imagery was needed in order to improve the velocity field derived from gradient imagery. Suggestions are given for optimizing the repeat time of sequential imagery when using the MCC method for motion studies. Applying the MCC method to the infrared brightness temperature imagery yielded a velocity field which did agree with the subjective analysis of the motion and that derived from the visible gradient imagery. Differences between the visible and infrared derived velocities were 14.9 cm/s in speed and 56.7 degrees in direction. Both of these velocity fields also agreed well with the motion expected from considerations of the ocean bottom topography and wind and tidal forcing in the study area during the 2.175 hour time interval.

Pope, P. A.↗