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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2012

Prevention of Over-Pressurization During Combustion in a Sealed Chamber

The combustion of flammable material in a sealed chamber invariably leads to an initial pressure rise in the volume. The pressure rise is due to the increase in the total number of gaseous moles (condensed fuel plus chamber oxygen combining to form gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor) and, most importantly, the temperature rise of the gas in the chamber. Though the rise in temperature and pressure would reduce with time after flame extinguishment due to the absorption of heat by the walls and contents of the sealed spacecraft, the initial pressure rise from a fire, if large enough, could lead to a vehicle over-pressure and the release of gas through the pressure relief valve. This paper presents a simple lumped-parameter model of the pressure rise in a sealed chamber resulting from the heat release during combustion. The transient model considers the increase in gaseous moles due to combustion, and heat transfer to the chamber walls by convection and radiation and to the fuel-sample holder by conduction, as a function of the burning rate of the material. The results of the model are compared to the pressure rise in an experimental chamber during flame spread tests as well as to the pressure falloff after flame extinguishment. The experiments involve flame spread over thin solid fuel samples. Estimates of the heat release rate profiles for input to the model come from the assumed stoichiometric burning of the fuel along with the observed flame spread behavior. The sensitivity of the model to predict maximum chamber pressure is determined with respect to the uncertainties in input parameters. Model predictions are also presented for the pressure profile anticipated in the Fire Safety-1 experiment, a material flammability and fire safety experiment proposed for the European Space Agency (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV). Computations are done for a range of scenarios including various initial pressures and sample sizes. Based on these results, various mitigation approaches are suggested to prevent vehicle over-pressurization and help guide the definition of the space experiment.

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity study on the fin effect of thermocouple mounted on the heated surface under film boiling condition

In the reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) scenario, right after the power burst with the occurrence of departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), the cladding temperature quickly reaches its maximum and is maintained in a steady film boiling regime. Then, under limited heat transfer performance of film boiling, the local cooling effect by the thermocouple wire may not be neglected. A computational model is developed to estimate the local cooling effect of the thermocouple wire mounted on the cladding surface under film boiling condition. The model predicts the temperature profile along the cladding surface as physically expected and is verified against the benchmark problem. Sensitivity studies reveal the significant effects of the thickness of vapor film layer and the diameter of thermocouple on the temperature drop near the thermocouple, for they increase the heat transfer area to the liquid water region. The impact of film boiling heat transfer coefficient, however, is not significant, as the primary heat transfer mechanism near the thermocouple is the heat conduction to the wire. Future study will include the contribution of radiative heat transfer between the cladding surface and the vapor film layer, as well as a transient power history which represents an actual RIA scenario.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Interfacial intermixing and anti-phase boundaries in GaP/Si(0 0 1) heterostructures

Epitaxial GaP/Si heterostructures grown by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) and migration-enhanced epitaxy (MEE) have been studied, primarily using aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (AC-STEM). Atomically-resolved structure images, which are sensitive to atomic-column intensity revealed the detailed geometry of antiphase boundaries that were both parallel and also inclined to the growth direction. The polar/non-polar GaP/Si interfaces were neither atomically flat laterally nor abrupt vertically. Measurements of intensity profiles using both bright-field and dark-field AC-STEM images, as well as chemically-sensitive g 002 dark-field imaging, indicated substantial interfacial intermixing, which increased significantly from ~1.3 nm (MEE growth at 440 °C) to ~2.1 nm (MBE growth at 600 °C). The finite interface width will impact theoretical predictions of charge imbalance and strong electric fields across the heterointerface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1980

Analyses of moisture in polymers and composites

A suitable method for the direct measurement of moisture concentrations after humidity/thermal exposure on state of the art epoxy and polyimide resins and their graphite and glass fiber reinforcements was investigated. Methods for the determination of moisture concentration profiles, moisture diffusion modeling and moisture induced chemical changes were examined. Carefully fabricated, precharacterized epoxy and polyimide neat resins and their AS graphite and S glass reinforced composites were exposed to humid conditions using heavy water (D20), at ambient and elevated temperatures. These specimens were fixtured to theoretically limit the D20 permeation to a unidirectional penetration axis. The analytical techniques evaluated were: (1) laser pyrolysis gas chromatography mass spectrometry; (2) solids probe mass spectrometry; (3) laser pyrolysis conventional infrared spectroscopy; and (4) infrared imaging thermovision. The most reproducible and sensitive technique was solids probe mass spectrometry. The fabricated exposed specimens were analyzed for D20 profiling after humidity/thermal conditioning at three exposure time durations.

Ryan, L. E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Calculated coupling efficiency between an elliptical-core optical fiber and an optical waveguide over temperature

To determine the feasibility of coupling the output of a single-mode optical fiber into a single-mode rib waveguide in a temperature varying environment, a theoretical calculation of the coupling efficiency between the two was investigated. Due to the complex geometry of the rib guide, there is no analytical solution to the wave equation for the guided modes, thus, approximation and/or numerical techniques must be utilized to determine the field patterns of the guide. In this study, three solution methods were used for both the fiber and guide fields; the effective-index method (EIM), Marcatili's approximation, and a Fourier method. These methods were utilized independently to calculate the electric field profile of each component at two temperatures, 20 C and 300 C, representing a nominal and high temperature. Using the electric field profile calculated from each method, the theoretical coupling efficiency between an elliptical-core optical fiber and a rib waveguide was calculated using the overlap integral and the results were compared. It was determined that a high coupling efficiency can be achieved when the two components are aligned. The coupling efficiency was more sensitive to alignment offsets in the y direction than the x, due to the elliptical modal field profile of both components. Changes in the coupling efficiency over temperature were found to be minimal.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2021

Crystal truncation rods from miscut surfaces with alternating terminations

Miscut surfaces of layered crystals can exhibit a stair-like sequence of terraces having periodic variation in their atomic structure. For hexagonal close-packed and related crystal structures with an αβαβ stacking sequence, there have been long-standing questions regarding how the differences in adatom attachment kinetics at the steps separating the terraces affect the fractional coverage of α vs. β termination during crystal growth. To demonstrate how surface X-ray scattering can help address these questions, we develop a general theory for the intensity distributions along crystal truncation rods (CTRs) for miscut surfaces with a combination of two terminations. We consider half-unit-cell-height steps, and variation of the coverages of the terraces above each step. Example calculations are presented for the GaN (0001) surface with various reconstructions. These show which CTR positions are most sensitive to the fractional coverage of the two terminations. We compare the CTR profiles for exactly oriented surfaces to those for vicinal surfaces having a small miscut angle, and investigate the circumstances under which the CTR profile for an exactly oriented surface is equal to the sum of the intensities of the corresponding family of CTRs for a miscut surface.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1984

Observed Spatial Properties of the Solar Eigenfunctions and the Implications for the Existence of Resolved Multiplets

Solar oscillations are manifested in the solar atmosphere as spatial and temporal perturbations in the local thermodynamical and mechanical properties. When measuring the solar radius/diameter, these perturbations enter the observation through changes in the radiative source function and opacity at the extreme limb. When compared to the disk center, the observable portion of these perturbations is changed in spatial character by projection effects and oblique optical depth geometry. The time varying solar radius signal at SCLERA (Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity) is produced by an edge definition sensitive to the resultant changes in the spatial shape of the limb intensity profile. An attempt is made to further determine the shape and properties of the limb signals which display global solar oscillations.

Caudell, T. P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Detailed mechanism of toluene oxidation and comparison with benzene

A detailed mechanism for the oxidation of toluene in both argon and nitrogen dilutents is presented. The mechanism was used to compute experimentally ignition delay times for shock-heated toluene-oxygen-argon mixtures with resonably good success over a wide range of initial temperatures and pressures. Attempts to compute experimentally measured concentration profiles for toluene oxidation in a turbulent reactor were partially successful. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the reactions which control the ignition process and the rates of formation and destruction of various species. The most important step was found to be the reaction of toluene with molecular oxygen, followed by the reactions of hydroperoxyl and atomic oxygen with benzyl radicals. These findings contrast with the benzene oxidation, where the benzene-molecular oxygen reaction is quite unimportant and the reaction of phenyl with molecular oxygen dominates. In the toluene mechanism the corresponding reaction of benzyl radicals with oxygen is unimportant. Two reactions which are important in the oxidation of benzene also influence the oxidation of toluene for several conditions. These are the oxidations of phenyl and cyclopentadienyl radicals by molecular oxygen. The mechanism presented successfully computes the decrease of toluene concentration with time in the nitrogen diluted turbulent reactor. This fact, in addition to the good prediction of ignition delay times, shows that this mechanism can be used for modeling the ignition and combustion process in practical, well-mixed combustion systems.

Bittker, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A new variability parameter for gamma-ray burst time profiles

We present a parameter that measures the structure of gamma-ray burst time profiles. This parameter is based on the statistics of runs and is a good measure of time profile variability. It is shown to be independent of burst duration and less sensitive to burst distance than algorithms that depend directly on the intensity of a burst.

Lestrade, John Patrick↗

NASA NTRS1994

A New Variability Parameter for Gamma-Ray Burst Time Profiles

Lestrade, John Patrick↗

NASA NTRS1999

Carbon Monoxide Formation in SN 1987A

The formation of carbon monoxide in the supernova SN 1987A at 200 days is investigated. Rather than the one-zone that have previous been employed, this work utilizes a radially dependent radiative transport model to compute the temperature and ionization structure and the destruction of CO and CO+ by ultraviolet radiation. The CO profile is computed assuming chemical equilibrium. Two models for the density and abundance profiles are examined: model 10H (unmixed) and model 10HMM (mixed) of Pinto & Woosley. Sensitivity to adopted rates and temperature as it might be affected by CO cooling is examined. The models give a total mass of 10-4 M_sun at 200 days for the unmixed model, which is comparable with the estimated observed abundance by Syromilio et al. but nearly 2 orders of magnitude less than the estimated observed and that computed in thermal-chemical models by Liu & Dalgarno. The effect of different model assumptions and results concerning ionization structure and radiative transfer are discussed. We confirm that CO+ is not expected to be produced in significant amounts and that the amount of CO is sensitive to the degree of the mixing of the composition of various elements present in the ejecta.

Gearhart, Rob A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ice Sheet Change Detection by Satellite Image Differencing

Differencing of digital satellite image pairs highlights subtle changes in near-identical scenes of Earth surfaces. Using the mathematical relationships relevant to photoclinometry, we examine the effectiveness of this method for the study of localized ice sheet surface topography changes using numerical experiments. We then test these results by differencing images of several regions in West Antarctica, including some where changes have previously been identified in altimeter profiles. The technique works well with coregistered images having low noise, high radiometric sensitivity, and near-identical solar illumination geometry. Clouds and frosts detract from resolving surface features. The ETM(plus) sensor on Landsat-7, ALI sensor on EO-1, and MODIS sensor on the Aqua and Terra satellite platforms all have potential for detecting localized topographic changes such as shifting dunes, surface inflation and deflation features associated with sub-glacial lake fill-drain events, or grounding line changes. Availability and frequency of MODIS images favor this sensor for wide application, and using it, we demonstrate both qualitative identification of changes in topography and quantitative mapping of slope and elevation changes.

Bindschadler, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of EPIC Oxygen Bands Stability With Radiative Transfer Simulations Over the South Pole

The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite orbiting the Sun at the Lagrange-1 point was launched without onboard calibration systems. Vicarious calibration is conducted for 8 of the 10 UV/VIS/NIR channels using other low earth orbiting satellite instruments, while its two O 2 bands (688 nm and 764nm) rely on indirect moon-view calibrations because the same narrow-band O 2 bands are not readily available from other in-flight instruments. This study compares EPIC measurements from the four O 2 bands aiming at examining sensor stability over a uniquely suited location, i.e., the permanently snow-covered South Pole. The study utilizes radiative transfer model simulations with in-situ atmospheric soundings taken at South Pole during months of December and January from 2015 to 2022. The absolute discrepancy between the model simulations and observations is less than 1.0% for the two reference bands, but 5.75% and 15.63% for the 688nm, and 764 nm absorption bands, respectively. The simulated A-band and B-band ratios are 16.09% and 4.74% higher than that from the observations. Various sensitivities are conducted to estimate possible contributions to the discrepancies from input atmospheric profiles, spectral surface albedos and surface BRDF. While none of the input uncertainties is likely to account for the large discrepancies in the oxygen absorption bands, a small shift in the instrument response function could be the main reason for these biases. On the other hand, the model simulations are able to capture systematic variations with observed angular measurements and explain the multi-year trends found in observed O 2 band ratios due to satellite orbit shifting. When model simulated contributions from the angle variations are deducted from the observed O 2 band ratios, the residual O 2 band ratios are found to be stable since 2015.

EPIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thermal analysis of Bridgman-Stockbarger growth

A thermal analysis of a cylindrical HgCdTe sample in a Bridgman-Stockbarger crystal growth configuration was conducted with emphasis on the thermal profile, interface shape and position, and the thermal gradients at the liquid-solid interface. Alloys of HgTe and CdTe with compositions approximating 20 percent CdTe, 80 percent HgTe were used. This composition results in a bandgap suited for the detection of 10.6 micron CO2 radiation. The sensitivity of the sample thermal characteristics to important growth parameters, such as thermal diffusivities, thermal conductivities, furnace temperature profile, ampoule dimensions, and growth velocity was assessed. Numerical techniques and associated computational models necessary to analyze the heat transfer process within the sample and the Bridgman-Stockbarger boundary conditions were developed. This thermal analysis mode was programmed in FORTRAN V, and is currently operational on the MSFC Univac 1100 system.

Knopf, F. W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Joint inversion of electromagnetic measurements for the determination of water saturation profiles in concrete structures

Highlights: • DC-electrical and dielectric data are combined to estimate concrete saturation degree. • A joint inversion approach of the electromagnetic measurements is proposed. • The sensitivity of the measurements to the saturation model parameters is analysed. • The new joint approach was developed and is applied to synthetic and real data. • The benefits of the joint approach over the inversion of one data type are highlighted. Water saturation profiles in concrete are essential to assess its durability and can be determined using non-destructive techniques, especially the electric and the capacitive methods. In this paper, we propose a new inversion scheme where both resistivity and permittivity measurements are inverted jointly to retrieve the saturation profile. The finite element method is used to model the measurements in 3D, the concrete having a saturation profile with depth, represented by a continuous model taking the form of a Weibull curve with four parameters. A non-linear least-squares optimization based on the Levenberg-Marquardt scheme is developed for the inversion of measurements. Results show that information gathered from both measurements enriches the reconstructed profile, leading to a more reliable estimation of saturation profiles. We believe that the joint inversion method herein developed could lead to the study of more complex phenomena, such as the coupled water-chloride ingress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗