Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Applied to Puerto Rico Electric Infrastructure

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity and Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy have funded DOE National Laboratories to perform modeling, analysis, and high-level design of resilience-enhancement options for the power grid of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of the national laboratories contributing to the DOE effort. Under this funding, PNNL completed Phase I of their analysis in 2018, which identified high-priority transmission enhancements derived from detailed dynamic cascading analysis of severe contingencies, including a hurricane scenario example. This report describes additional analysis completed under Phase II, which was performed over 2019. The PNNL team applied decades of experience making complex power systems more resilient, reliable, secure, flexible, affordable and sustainable, with partners in government and industry. In this report, PNNL presents the Phase II analysis, in which a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis approach to evaluate impact of several hurricane scenarios was developed. This approach was used to identify high-priority enhancements and test resilience mitigation actions, including the evaluation of high-solar scenarios developed as a result of the 2019 Puerto Rico Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios

This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nodal Capacity Expansion Modeling with ReEDS: A Case Study of the RTS-GMLC Test System

Test systems play an important role in power systems analysis and are used extensively for a wide range of purposes like reliability analysis, production cost modeling, studying the impacts of load shifting, and many more. These test systems have continued to evolve over the years to keep pace with changing system compositions due to technology and policy changes. In this work, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a large-scale capacity expansion model (CEM), on the nodal RTS-GMLC system to perform capacity expansion of the bus-level test system. This work both demonstrates that a large-scale CEM can successfully be applied to nodal systems, and that the CEM can allow a test system to be evolved to meet desired criteria. The process allowed the coupling of CEM data not available in the test system (such as capital costs) with test system data to provide plausible system evolutions in line with scenario specifications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Best Practices Guide for Energy-Efficient Data Center Design

This guide provides an overview of best practices for energy-efficient data center design which spans the categories of information technology (IT) systems and their environmental conditions, data center air management, cooling and electrical systems, and heat recovery. IT system energy efficiency and environmental conditions are presented first because measures taken in these areas have a cascading effect of secondary energy savings for the mechanical and electrical systems. This guide concludes with a section on metrics and benchmarking values by which a data center and its systems energy efficiency can be evaluated. No design guide can offer “the most energy-efficient” data center design but the guidelines that follow offer suggestions that provide efficiency benefits for a wide variety of data center scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Heterogeneous Multi-Domain Dataset Synthesis to Facilitate Privacy and Risk Assessments in Smart City IoT

The emergence of the Smart Cities paradigm and the rapid expansion and integration of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies within this context have created unprecedented opportunities for high-resolution behavioral analytics, urban optimization, and context-aware services. However, this same proliferation intensifies privacy risks, particularly those arising from cross-modal data linkage across heterogeneous sensing platforms. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a comprehensive, statistically grounded framework for generating synthetic, multimodal IoT datasets tailored to Smart City research. The framework produces behaviorally plausible synthetic data suitable for preliminary privacy risk assessment and as a benchmark for future re-identification studies, as well as for evaluating algorithms in mobility modeling, urban informatics, and privacy-enhancing technologies. As part of our approach, we formalize probabilistic methods for synthesizing three heterogeneous and operationally relevant data streams—cellular mobility traces, payment terminal transaction logs, and Smart Retail nutrition records—capturing the behaviors of a large number of synthetically generated urban residents over a 12-week period. The framework integrates spatially explicit merchant selection using K-Dimensional (KD)-tree nearest-neighbor algorithms, temporally correlated anchor-based mobility simulation reflective of daily urban rhythms, and dietary-constraint filtering to preserve ecological validity in consumption patterns. In total, the system generates approximately 116 million mobility pings, 5.4 million transactions, and 1.9 million itemized purchases, yielding a reproducible benchmark for evaluating multimodal analytics, privacy-preserving computation, and secure IoT data-sharing protocols. To show the validity of this dataset, the underlying distributions of these residents were successfully validated against reported distributions in published research. We present preliminary uniqueness and cross-modal linkage indicators; comprehensive re-identification benchmarking against specific attack algorithms is planned as future work. This framework can be easily adapted to various scenarios of interest in Smart Cities and other IoT applications. By aligning methodological rigor with the operational needs of Smart City ecosystems, this work fills critical gaps in synthetic data generation for privacy-sensitive domains, including intelligent transportation systems, urban health informatics, and next-generation digital commerce infrastructures.

IoT↗

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study, exhibit C. Volume 2, part 2: System engineering, cost and programmatics

Volume 2, Part 2, of a seven volume Satellite Power Systems (SPS) report is presented. Part 2 covers cost and programmatics and is divided into four sections. The first section gives illustrations of the SPS reference satellite and rectenna concept, and an overall scenario for SPS space transportation involvement. The second section presents SPS program plans for the implementation of PHASE C/D activities. These plans describe SPS program schedules and networks, critical items of systems evolution/technology development, and the natural resources analysis. The fourth section presents summary comments on the methods and rationale followed in arriving at the results documented. Suggestions are also provided in those areas where further analysis or evaluation will enhance SPS cost and programmatic definitions.

Hanley, G. M.↗

Controlled ecological life support system: Transportation analysis

This report discusses a study utilizing a systems analysis approach to determine which NASA missions would benefit from controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) technology. The study focuses on manned missions selected from NASA planning forecasts covering the next half century. Comparison of various life support scenarios for the selected missions and characteristics of projected transportation systems provided data for cost evaluations. This approach identified missions that derived benefits from a CELSS, showed the magnitude of the potential cost savings, and indicated which system or combination of systems would apply. This report outlines the analytical approach used in the evaluation, describes the missions and systems considered, and sets forth the benefits derived from CELSS when applicable.

Gustan, E.↗

A methodology for choosing candidate materials for the fabrication of planetary space suit structures

A study of space suit structures and materials is under way at NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA. The study was initiated by the need for a generation of lightweight space suits to be used in future planetary Exploration Missions. This paper provides a brief description of the Lunar and Mars environments and reviews what has been done in the past in the design and development of fabric, metal, and composite suit components in order to establish criteria for comparison of promising candidate materials and space suit structures. Environmental factors and mission scenarios will present challenging material and structural requirements; thus, a program is planned to outline the methodology used to identify materials and processes for producing candidate space suit structures which meet those requirements.

Jacobs, Gilda↗

Adaptive Inner-Loop Rover Control

Adaptive control technology is developed for the inner-loop speed and steering control of the MAX Rover. MAX, a CMU developed rover, is a compact low-cost 4-wheel drive, 4-wheel steer (double Ackerman), high-clearance agile durable chassis, outfitted with sensors and electronics that make it ideally suited for supporting research relevant to intelligent teleoperation and as a low-cost autonomous robotic test bed and appliance. The design consists of a feedback linearization based controller with a proportional - integral (PI) feedback that is augmented by an online adaptive neural network. The adaptation law has guaranteed stability properties for safe operation. The control design is retrofit in nature so that it fits inside the outer-loop path planning algorithms. Successful hardware implementation of the controller is illustrated for several scenarios consisting of actuator failures and modeling errors in the nominal design.

Kulkarni, Nilesh↗

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Mission Scenario Development Workbench

The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

Kordon, Mark↗

MACHETE: Environment for Space Networking Evaluation

Space Exploration missions requires the design and implementation of space networking that differs from terrestrial networks. In a space networking architecture, interplanetary communication protocols need to be designed, validated and evaluated carefully to support different mission requirements. As actual systems are expensive to build, it is essential to have a low cost method to validate and verify mission/system designs and operations. This can be accomplished through simulation. Simulation can aid design decisions where alternative solutions are being considered, support trade-studies and enable fast study of what-if scenarios. It can be used to identify risks, verify system performance against requirements, and as an initial test environment as one moves towards emulation and actual hardware implementation of the systems. We describe the development of Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) and its use cases in supporting architecture trade studies, protocol performance and its role in hybrid simulation/emulation. The MACHETE environment contains various tools and interfaces such that users may select the set of tools tailored for the specific simulation end goal. The use cases illustrate tool combinations for simulating space networking in different mission scenarios. This simulation environment is useful in supporting space networking design for planned and future missions as well as evaluating performance of existing networks where non-determinism exist in data traffic and/or link conditions.

Jennings, Esther H.↗

An Overview of the Jupiter Europa Orbiter Concept's Europa Science Phase Orbit Design

Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO), the proposed NASA element of the proposed joint NASA-ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM), could launch in February 2020 and conceivably arrive at Jupiter in December of 2025. The concept is to perform a multi-year study of Europa and the Jupiter system, including 30 months of Jupiter system science and a comprehensive Europa orbit phase of 9 months. This paper provides an overview of the JEO concept and describes the Europa Science phase orbit design and the related science priorities, model pay-load and operations scenarios needed to conduct the Europa Science phase. This overview is for planning and discussion purposes only.

Lock, Robert E.↗

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry's understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.

bioenergy↗

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Manned Space-laboratories Control Center (MSCC) operations concept

The initiation of the (German-) nationally funded control center for manned spaceflight operations triggered by the invitation of President Reagan to ESA, Japan, and Canada in 1984 to join the International Space Station Freedom Program is recalled. The requirements for a Manned Space-Laboratories Control Center (MSCC) as defined at the beginning of the planning and construction process in 1987 and the resulting modifications during the various programmatic scenario changes on NASA and ESA side between 1987 and now are presented. The validity of the original requirements with respect to the current scenario, which asks for a logical evolution from the execution of the D-2 mission in January 1993 via the European Columbus Precursor flights (in particular the E-1 mission) towards Columbus Attached Laboratory (APM)-operations by the end of this century are discussed. The resulting tasks of the MSCC for the various missions, the current configuration, and the ensuing operations concept leading from a more centralized concept for D-2 towards a decentralized payload operations concept for the APM and the implications with respect to European and International interfaces are presented. The planned Columbus MSCC facility architecture and its expected modifications introduced by the ESA Ministerial Conference in Munich (Nov. 1991) and follow-on discussions are briefly addressed. The last chapter outlines the planned services to be provided by the MSCC to the decentralized User (experimenter) community. Issues like decentralized mission planning on executional level, command validation, data flow coordination, archiving services, and telescience capabilities are highlighted from a MSCC point of view.

Kehr, Joachim↗

ARC disruption physics and strategy

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans to operate a tokamak power plant called ARC in the early 2030s. Tokamak plasmas have stability limits that, if crossed, lead to a rapid termination of the plasma, referred to as a disruption. Disruptions pose a melt risk to the first wall resulting from thermal and non-thermal particle heat fluxes, and an electromagnetic loading risk on all metal components within the equilibrium coils. A comprehensive set of models is used herein to provide an assessment of both mitigated and unmitigated ARC disruption loads. A preliminary massive gas injection system is baselined and a runaway electron mitigation coil option is proposed to close possible gaps in the baseline. It is predicted that all ARC disruption loads are within a factor of 2 of the disruption loads in SPARC, a tokamak presently under construction by CFS, and therefore SPARC provides an opportunity to calibrate models, test solutions and inform the design of ARC. The goal for ARC is disruption-free operation, however, the pragmatic design target is to withstand one mitigated disruption per day, and to restart the plasma following mitigation in tens of seconds without interrupting the power output. Unmitigated disruptions must be rare, and experience with unmitigated disruption impacts in SPARC will better define what rare means. The implications of this strategy for plasma disruptivity and disruption prediction are discussed, and operating the ARC scenario on SPARC is expected to refine the ARC final design and operational plan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗