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At least 469 records · Page 26

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Linear simulation of magnetohydrodynamic plasma response to three-dimensional magnetic perturbations in high-β P plasmas

In this work, we report the numerical analyses of linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) plasma response to applied three-dimensional magnetic perturbations (MPs) in a joint DIII-D/EAST collaboration on high-β P (poloidal beta) plasmas, utilizing the extended-MHD code M3D-C1, with the purpose of realizing a better understanding of the existing experiment in which the n=3 MPs were applied to such high-β P plasmas attempting to control large amplitude type-I ELMs. Such high-β P plasmas obtained at the DIII-D tokamak feature an upper-biased double null configuration, a high edge safety factor q 95 ~6.4, and a stable internal transport barrier (ITB) leading to relatively high core pressures. Single-fluid simulations show that the plasma response to n=3 MPs, including both non-resonant/kinking and resonant components, is significantly weaker than that to n=1 or 2 MPs. To survey the impact of q 95 on plasma response to applied MPs, the SEGWAY (Self-consistent Equilibrium Generating Workflow for AnalYsis) module, developed in the OMFIT integrated modelling framework, is employed to generate a series of equilibria with a wide range of q 95 while other key parameters including the normalized beta, electron density at pedestal top, and plasma shape are kept fixed. Compared to the vacuum response, single-fluid M3D-C1 simulations predict a much more significant decrease of resonant plasma response to the applied n=3 MPs at the maximum penetration radii as q 95 increases. In contrast to single-fluid simulation results showing resonant penetration occurs only near the pedestal top where the E×B toroidal rotation frequency is zero, two-fluid simulations show two comparable resonant penetrations locating near the pedestal top and the ITB foot, where the perpendicular electron rotation frequency is zero. Such resonant field penetration near the ITB foot may be responsible for the observed formation of a staircase structure in both electron density and temperature profiles and thereby a considerable deterioration of global plasma performance when MPs are applied in high-β P plasmas. Motivated by this numerical work, we provide some ideas for the future research, with the purpose of realizing effective ELM control in such high-β P plasmas on the DIII-D and EAST devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Embedding of Fiber Optic Sensors in Stainless Steel for Sensing in Harsh Environments

Structural health monitoring is critical for components working in harsh environments to assess their safety and integrity. This can be realized with advanced sensors, such as fiber optic sensors, embedded in these components. Recent studies have used ultrasonic consolidation (UC) and laser-based additive manufacturing (AM) techniques to embed fiber optic sensors in metals. However, sensor embedding using these techniques has been challenging, with gaps and voids around the embedded fiber. Successful embedding of fiber optic sensors requires good contact between the fiber and the matrix to eliminate potential gas/liquid leaks in critical systems such as in nuclear and aerospace services. Defect-free fiber/matrix bond is also essential for accurate measurement of parameters of interest, such as temperature and strain. This study developed a novel fiber embedding technique based on electric field-assisted sintering (EFAS). Sapphire optical fibers with diameters of 125 µm and 250 µm were embedded in stainless steel (SS) 316L using EFAS. The embedding was completed by sintering SS 316L powders at a pressure of 50MPa, hold time of 5 min, and temperatures of 1000°C, 1100°C, and 1200°C. Joule heating mechanism during EFAS enabled rapid sintering of the SS 316L powder with resulting sample densities over 99%. Microscopy analysis performed on the cross-sections revealed a defect-free bond between the embedded fiber and SS 316L. The good integrity of the embedded fiber was evidenced by optical transmittance measurement. Optical attenuation of the fiber before and after embedment was examined in the near-infrared region. Scanning electron microscopy was employed to investigate the grain morphology of SS 316L near the embedded fiber. Hardness distribution in the sintered part was also investigated to study the effect of the embedded fiber on the mechanical properties of the as-fabricated component. The results indicated that EFAS was able to embed fiber in SS with good fiber functionality and part quality.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigating Fission Reaction Rate Ratio Sensitivities [Abstract]

Reaction rate ratios are a measurable parameter for reactor and criticality applications. A number of foil irradiations and fission chamber measurements have been performed for critical assemblies at Los Alamos National Laboratory starting in the 1950’s including (i) Godiva, a bare HEU spherical assembly; (ii) Flattop-25, a spherical assembly consisting of an HEU core and a natural uranium reflector; (iii) Jezebel, a bare 239 Pu assembly; and (iv) Flattop-Pu, a spherical assembly consisting of a 239Pu core and a natural uranium reflector. Fission ratio data for 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f), 237 Np(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f), 233 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) and 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) were obtained and reported. The EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) aims to constrain nuclear data by using a suite of measurement types beyond k-effective. Recent investigations include the use of pulsed spheres for nuclear data validation and other measurement methods of interest. One focus of the work is to determine if other methods are complimentary to the critical experiments utilized for nuclear data validation. It is anticipated the investigations will help inform methods that may be utilized in machine learning algorithms for nuclear validation. In order to use a measurement type for nuclear validation, it is necessary to obtain cross-section sensitivities for parameters. This work looks at reaction rate ratio sensitivities with SENSMG and Monte Carlo N-Particle R Code Version 6.21.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A heat and mass transfer model for evaluation of damaged cesium chloride radiological sources

Radiological sources are vital to many applications, and typically contain byproducts from waste streams which decay over time to form complex mixtures of elements. Daughter products resulting from these decay processes can introduce complicating factors to the integrity and safety of the vessel that contains the radiological material. Sources containing cesium 137 ( 137 Cs) are of particular interest, because the decay of this isotope produces barium metal which reacts readily and exothermically with oxygen. This work employs physics-based numerical tools to examine the thermal response of a radiological source containing a mixture of cesium and barium in the event that vessel walls are damaged and atmospheric gases contact source material. A parametric study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the response to various factors, including vessel geometry, source material age, the degree of vessel damage, and other parameters. Here, it was found that the peak temperatures that occurred within the source material strongly depend on these parameters, particularly vessel geometry and age, which determine whether a breach would be a relatively minor accident or a catastrophic incident. Finally, the model’s sensitivity to uncertain thermophysical properties is discussed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Controlled Dy-doping to nickel-rich cathode materials in high temperature aerosol synthesis

Layered nickel-rich materials are promising next-generation cathode materials for lithium ion batteries due to their high capacity and low cost. However, the poor thermal stability and longtime cycling performance hinders the commercial applications of high nickel materials. Doping with heteroatoms has been an effective approach for improving electrochemical performance of cathode materials. Controlling doping concentration and geometrical distribution is desired for optimal electrochemical performance, but it is challenging in traditional co-precipitation methods. In this work, controlled dysprosium (Dy) doping to NCM811 was studied in an aerosol synthesis method by controlling the precursor concentrations and heating parameters. The obtained materials were characterized by SEM, XRD, and XPS, and their electrochemical properties and thermal stability were evaluated. By controlling the doping concentration (1.5%), Dy-doped NCM811 was improved simultaneously in long-term cycling and high-rate performance. Here, the thermal-chemical stability of the Dy-doped cathode materials was examined in a microflow reactor with a mass spectrometer. The results showed that Dy-doping shifted the O 2 onset temperature to a higher temperature and reduced O 2 release by 80%, thus dramatically increasing the thermal-chemical stability and improving the fire safety of cathode materials. Since high temperature aerosol synthesis is a low-cost and scalable method, the findings in this work have broad implications for commercial synthesis of novel materials with controlled doping modification to achieve high electrochemical performance and safety in lithium ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Connected Traffic Signal Coordination Optimization Framework through Network-Wide Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator–Based Control Strategy

Traffic congestion in metropolitan areas causes several significant challenges, such as longer travel times, decreased productivity, increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions, and even severe injuries during crashes. Traffic signal control is a management approach to reduce traffic congestion and allocate the appropriate right of way for safety and mobility efficiency, both in temporal and spatial domains. Here, this study proposes a network-wide adaptive signal control coordination optimization framework based on the linear quadratic regulator algorithm. The traffic flow conditions driven by signal control inputs are formulated based on their network-wide state-space representation. After modeling traffic control regulation constraints, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator algorithm is designed to maximize the network-wide total throughput under the current conditions. Optimal signal control split time durations for multiple intersections in the network are derived by solving the algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the recursive least square parameter estimation method is employed to quantify dynamic traffic condition changes. To verify the effectiveness of this proposed signal control framework, both simulation and real-world experimental tests are conducted for multiple intersections in downtown Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States. In preparation for real-world experimental tests, pipelines for real-time data processing implementation and historical traffic flow data analysis are conducted. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control framework achieves a decrease in travel time by up to 19.4%, total time spent (TTS) by up to 11.9%, and relative queue balance (RQB) by up to 15.6%. The research findings indicate that the proposed signal control framework can be generalized to handle large scale signal control optimization network-wide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Local practically safe extremum seeking with assignable rate of attractivity to the safe set

We present Assignably Safe Extremum Seeking (ASfES), an algorithm designed to minimize a measured, static objective function while maintaining a measured, static metric of safety (a control barrier function or CBF) to be positive in a practical sense. We ensure that for trajectories with safe initial conditions, the violation of safety can be made arbitrarily small through appropriately chosen design constants. We also guarantee an assignable “attractivity” rate: from unsafe initial conditions, the trajectories approach the safe set, in the sense of the measured CBF, at a rate no slower than a user-assigned rate. Similarly, from safe initial conditions, the trajectories approach the unsafe set, in the sense of the CBF, no faster than the assigned attractivity rate. The feature of assignable attractivity is not present in the semiglobal version of safe extremum seeking, where the semiglobality of convergence is achieved by slowing the adaptation. We also demonstrate local convergence of the parameter to a neighborhood of the minimum of a quadratic objective function constrained to the safe set with a linear CBF. The ASfES algorithm and analysis are multivariable, but we also extend the algorithm to a Newton-Based ASfES scheme which we show is only useful in the scalar case. The proven properties of the designs are illustrated through simulation examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Accuracy of kinetic equilibrium reconstruction of NSTX and NSTX-U plasmas and its impact on the transport and stability analysis

An accurate magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium reconstruction is an essential starting point for stability and transport plasma analysis. Herein this work describes an approach for obtaining kinetic equilibrium reconstructions using the OMFIT framework, which has been applied for the first time to spherical tokamak data from NSTX and NSTX-U. The EFIT equilibrium solver is integrated with experimental data analysis procedures and subsequent TRANSP transport simulations to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction, in particular, at the edge region, by adding constraints on the total pressure and current density profiles, based on the transport code solution. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction depends on the uncertainty and number of constraints, as well as the choice of basis functions to represent the pressure and current density profiles. Improved fidelity of the equilibrium reconstruction is demonstrated by reducing the variability of the magnetic axis and boundary locations from several centimeters, for reconstructions based on magnetic and experimental pressure constraints, to only several millimeters, for kinetic reconstructions based on transport code constraints, when different representations of basis functions were tested. The variability of the safety factor on axis was reduced ten times in the same sensitivity study. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction and subsequent mapping of the experimental kinetic profile data have a significant impact on the trapped gyro Landau fluid and linear CGYRO turbulence simulations, which predict different spectra of unstable modes and turbulent fluxes for cases with different numbers of constraints in the equilibrium reconstruction. Conversely, the stability analysis performed using the GATO code shows plasmas that are stable to n = 1 MHD modes in both equilibria using magnetic and experimental pressure constraints as well as the transport code constrained equilibrium. However, a scan of parameters away from these conditions shows considerable deviation in the threshold of unstable modes between these reconstructions. Therefore, for reliable plasma analysis and use in turbulence and stability calculations, a high-fidelity equilibrium reconstruction with accurate kinetic constraints based on transport code solutions is necessary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Preliminary Design of a New Pulsed-Neutron Die--Away Experiments with Absorbers (IER-552 CED-1)

This report presents the preliminary design (CED-1) of IER-552, pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments with absorbers, to be conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The goal of the PNDA experiments with absorbing materials is to produce high-quality, low-cost integral benchmarks that can be used to validate cross sections that are high priority nuclear data for the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). PNDA experiments can be used to generate nuclear data validation benchmarks quickly and cheaply, as they do not require fissile material or a nuclear facility to conduct them. The original PNDA experiments were set up at LLNL under IER-501. Extending the PNDA experiments to include absorbing materials leverages existing facilities and resources at LLNL to validate cross sections, with a basic experiment design that uses a neutron generator to impinge a short, mono-energetic neutron pulse on a poisoned, moderating target sample. The neutron pulse lasts 100 µs, after which the neutron population in the sample reaches thermal equilibrium and later spatial equilibrium. In this fully equilibrized state, the neutron population has a characteristic decay-time eigenvalue. The eigenvalue can be used as an integral parameter to validate nuclear data involved with neutron scattering and absorption. Two observables can be measured: the neutron population and the population of secondary γ-rays produced by inelastic and capture reactions. This report explores the feasibility of both approaches. For γ-ray measurements, this allows for direct measurement of reactions of interest for validation. During the neutron burst time, inelastic (prompt) γ-rays dominate, and these data can be isolated for validation of neutron inelastic scattering data. After the pulse ends, neutron capture (delayed) γ-rays dominate and are produced by many reaction channels as neutrons slow down to thermal energies. Two sets of γ-ray spectra (inelastic, capture) can be produced for validation. Additionally, the time-dependent decay of the capture γ-ray population when the neutron population is thermalized and in its fundamental mode can be used for validation. Two experiments can be imagined where pulsed neutrons are used to validate the nuclear data of absorbing materials. The first integrates well into the existing PNDA testbed at LLNL. The absorber material would be introduced into a moderating target and the same neutron generator, neutron detectors, electronics, and shielding box used for IER-501 would be employed. From the same experimental setup, many absorbing materials can be validated by simply changing the neutron poison in the moderator. The only significant modification would be the introduction of a γ-ray detector. Such an experiment would primarily serve to validate nuclear data in the thermal energy range. The second kind of experiment would validate the fast and epithermal energy range. It would involve pulsing neutron into a bare assembly of the absorber material and measuring the die-away of neutrons. The fast leakage of such an assembly requires nanosecond neutron-generator pulse widths and fast detectors/electronics that could measure ~200 ns die-away curves. This kind of experiment would ideally be performed at a cyclotron, like that available at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of AGR-3/4 In-pile Silver Release Predictions Against Post-Irradiation Examination Measurements

Fuel performance modeling codes that accurately predict the transport of radionuclides in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that utilize tristructural isotopic (TRISO) fuel particles are an important aspect of reactor safety analyses. One objective of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 experiment was to assess the transport of fission products through fuel particles and their subsequent release into the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. This was accomplished by irradiating uranium oxycarbide (UCO) driver fuel particles and designed-to-fail (DTF) particles to serve as known sources of fission products. The fission product of particular interest when it comes to such transport is silver (Ag-110 m), as it has a 250-day half-life and has relatively high mobility in the TRISO coating layers. Furthermore, to assess the current modeling capabilities and diffusion parameters employed in the fuel performance codes PARFUME and BISON, the fractional release of silver release predicted by the two codes were compared against post-irradiation examination measurements from the AGR-3/4 experiment.

AGR-3/4 Experiment↗

Slide Test FY 2019 Report

At Los Alamos, the Slide Test was developed in 2019 to investigate whether the mass of a main charge of explosive sliding on a gritty surface, in the absence of impact, is sufficient to heat grit to ignition temperatures in PBX 9501. This is a practical test to address frictional ignition during assembly/disassembly operations at the Pantex Plant. Twenty-seven Slide Tests were performed in total, testing PBX 9501 at various slide velocities, grit diameters, grit patterns, and charge masses. Time-resolved velocimetry of the slide event (from PDV) and spot area of the explosive charge (obtained from image analysis) is reported. High-speed videography is used to diagnose explosive reaction. Eighteen of these tests were performed with a charge mass of 30 lbs at velocities ≤ 4 m s-1 and grit diameters between 75 and 1000 µm. Nine Slide Tests were performed with a 15 lb charge mass at similar parameters. No ignition was observed in any of the tests. These data provide evidence that the mass of a main charge, caused to slide on a surface at the low velocities achievable during routine handling, is insufficient stimulus to heat grit to ignition temperatures. These findings are relevant to risk assessment for explosive handling operations and provide evidence that PBX 9501 is safe within the constraints that were tested. However, because ignitions were not observed in any of the tests, we cannot determine which variables (mass or velocity) dominate the explosive response and to what extent. The absence of observed ignition also precludes the determination of a safety margin. To identify this safety margin, further research would be necessary to define the velocity and/or mass threshold at which ignition occurs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Preliminary Comparison of Neutron Detector Sensitivities [Poster]

Nuclear data (ND) is vital to predictive simulations such as those completed with MCNP®. ND sensitivities are used to optimize the design of benchmark experiments. Diverse benchmarks (including neutron noise) are required to further our understanding of ND. Measured and simulated data of a 4.5-kg Pu sphere was used to calculate neutron noise parameters and associated ND Sensitivities

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗

Identification of a network of nonlinear interactions as a mechanism triggering the onset of edge localized modes

Edge localized modes (ELMs) remain a critical issue for the lifetime of in-vessel components of fusion reactors such as ITER. We study ELMs triggered when the pedestal parameters are below the peeling-ballooning limit. These ELMs occur while the pedestal recovers after an ELM crash. We identify a mechanism by which a non-linear perturbation involving many active triads—a network of non-linear interactions – leads to the triggering of these ELMs. Each active triad leads to the non-linear transfer of energy between three waves, such that the network of non-linear interactions lead to a transfer of energy between many waves. The triggering of this non-linear perturbation systematically coincides with a pedestal perturbation induced by the neutral beam injection beams and localized near the magnetic surface of safety factor q = 5. Among the non-linear interactions detected during the ELM by a bi-coherence analysis, the most active triad involves a slow frequency that is qualitatively consistent with a geodesic acoustic mode located at the same location, i.e., near the q = 5 surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Variability Analysis of FMVSS-121 Air Brake Systems: 60-mi/hr Service Brake System Performance Data for Truck Tractors

In support of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA’s) ongoing interest in connected and automated commercial vehicles, this report summarizes analyses conducted to quantify variability in stopping distance tests conducted on commercial truck tractors. The data used were retrieved from tests performed under the controlled conditions specified for FMVSS-121 air brake system compliance testing. The report explores factors affecting the variability of the service brake stopping distance as defined by 49 CFR 571.121, S5.3.1 Stopping Distance—trucks and buses stopping distance. Variables examined in this analysis include brake type, weight, wheelbase, and tractor antilock braking system (ABS). This analysis uses existing test data collected between 2010 and 2019. Several of the examined parameters affected both tractor stopping distance and stopping distance variability. First, the average stopping distance for disc/disc brakes was shorter than either drum/drum or disc/drum brakes, but brake type did not have a statistically significant effect on stopping distance variability. Second, tractors with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 45,000-50,000 lb had shorter stopping distances than any other examined weight category. Weight was found to have a significant effect on stopping distance variability; the 50,000-55,000-lb GVWR range had more variability than both the next lower (45,000-50,000 lb) and next higher (55,000-60,000 lb) range.

Lascurain, Mary Beth↗

New Measurements to Resolve Discrepancies in Evaluated Model Parameters of 181 Ta

To resolve discrepancies in evaluated cross sections among major nuclear data libraries, energy-differential neutron transmission and radiative capture yield of 181 Ta were measured from 0.15 to 100 keV using multiple sample thicknesses. The new measurements provide resolution such that the resolved resonance region (RRR) can be evaluated up to at least 2.5 keV and the unresolved resonance region can be evaluated up to at least 100 keV. The transmission and capture yield measurements were modeled using resonance parameters from three major libraries to assess the predictive capability of each. It was found that JENDL-5.0 performed best in the RRR. Because of the poor performance of the U.S. ENDF/B evaluation, it is recommended that ENDF/B be reevaluated for 181 Ta.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗