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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-hoc reweighting of hadron production in the Lund string model

We present a method for reweighting flavor selection in the Lund string fragmentation model. This is the process of calculating and applying event weights enabling fast and exact variation of hadronization parameters on pre-generated event samples. The procedure is post hoc, requiring only a small amount of additional information stored per event, and allowing for efficient estimation of hadronization uncertainties without repeated simulation. Weight expressions are derived from the hadronization algorithm itself, and validated against direct simulation for a wide range of observables and parameter shifts. The hadronization algorithm can be viewed as a hierarchical Markov process with stochastic rejections, a structure common to many complex simulations outside of high-energy physics. This perspective makes the method modular, extensible, and potentially transferable to other domains. We demonstrate the approach in Pythia, including both coverage considerations and timing benefits. For the purpose of this paper, our goal is to develop and demonstrate the the formalism, and we therefore exclude several model variations for baryon production (popcorn model, junction production) needed for proton collisions. These will be the topic of a future paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál’s derivation of the Pál Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the derivation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by simply replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an inaccurate average number v̅ of neutrons that is produced by a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that determines v̅ correctly. There are six reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi for solving the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a time dependent Pál-Bell equation. The fifth is to show in Appendix A that the non-linear fission operator of the Pál-Bell equation is descended from the operator of the Galton-Watson process of stochastic theory. The sixth is to describe in Appendix B a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Dynamics of Interstellar Asteroids and Comets within the Galaxy: An Assessment of Local Candidate Source Regions for 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov

The low velocity of interstellar asteroid 1I/’Oumuamua with respect to our galaxy’s local standard of rest implies that it is young. Adopting the young age hypothesis, we assess possible origin systems for this interstellar asteroid and for 2I/Borisov, though the latter’s higher speed means it is unlikely to be young. First, their past trajectories are modeled under gravitational scattering by galactic components (“disk heating”) to assess how far back one can trace them. The stochastic nature of disk heating means that a back integration can only expect to be accurate to within 15 pc and 2 km s{sup −1} at −10 Myr, dropping steeply to 400 pc and 10 km s{sup −1} at −100 Myr, sharply limiting our ability to determine a precise origin. Nevertheless, we show that ’Oumuamua’s origin system likely is currently within 1 kpc of Earth, in the local Orion Arm. Second, we back integrate ’Oumuamua’s trajectory in order to assess source regions, emphasizing young systems and moving groups. Though disk heating allows for only a statistical link to source regions, ’Oumuamua passed through a considerable subset of the Carina and Columba moving groups when those groups were forming. This makes them perhaps the most plausible source region, if ’Oumuamua was ejected during planet formation or via intra-cluster interactions. We find three stars in the Ursa Major group, one brown dwarf, and seven other stars to have plausible encounters with 2I/Borisov, within 2 pc and 30 km s{sup −1}. These encounters’ high relative speeds mean none are likely to be the home of 2I/Borisov.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Accuracy of the ALMA Flux Calibration in the Time Domain and across Spectral Windows

A diverse array of science goals requires accurate flux calibration of observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter array (ALMA); however, this goal remains challenging due to the stochastic time-variability of the “grid” quasars ALMA uses for calibration. In this work, we use 343.5 GHz (Band 7) ALMA Atacama Compact Array observations of four bright and stable young stellar objects over seven epochs to independently assess the accuracy of the ALMA flux calibration and to refine the relative calibration across epochs. The use of these four extra calibrators allows us to achieve an unprecedented relative ALMA calibration accuracy of ~3%. On the other hand, when the observatory calibrator catalog is not up to date, the Band 7 data calibrated by the ALMA pipeline may have a flux calibration poorer than the nominal 10%, which can be exacerbated by weather-related phase decorrelation when self-calibration of the science target is either not possible or not attempted. We also uncover a relative flux calibration uncertainty between spectral windows of 0.8%, implying that measuring spectral indices within a single ALMA band is likely highly uncertain. We thus recommend various methods for science goals requiring high flux accuracy and robust calibration, in particular, the observation of additional calibrators combined with a relative calibration strategy, and observation of solar system objects for high absolute accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

SCExAO/MEC and CHARIS Discovery of a Low-mass, 6 au Separation Companion to HIP 109427 Using Stochastic Speckle Discrimination and High-contrast Spectroscopy

We report the direct imaging discovery of a low-mass companion to the nearby accelerating A star, HIP 109427, with the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) instrument coupled with the Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detector Exoplanet Camera (MEC) and CHARIS integral field spectrograph. CHARIS data reduced with reference star point spread function (PSF) subtraction yield 1.1–2.4 μm spectra. MEC reveals the companion in Y and J band at a comparable signal-to-noise ratio using stochastic speckle discrimination, with no PSF subtraction techniques. Combined with complementary follow-up L {sub p} photometry from Keck/NIRC2, the SCExAO data favors a spectral type, effective temperature, and luminosity of M4–M5.5, 3000–3200 K, and log{sub 10}(L/L{sub ⊙})=−2.28{sub −0.04}{sup +0.04}, respectively. Relative astrometry of HIP 109427 B from SCExAO/CHARIS and Keck/NIRC2, and complementary Gaia–Hipparcos absolute astrometry of the primary favor a semimajor axis of 6.55{sup +3.0} {sub −0.48} au, an eccentricity of 0.54{sub −0.15}{sup +0.28}, an inclination of 66.7{sub −14}{sup +8.5} degrees, and a dynamical mass of 0.280{sub −0.059}{sup +0.18} M {sub ⊙}. This work shows the potential for extreme AO systems to utilize speckle statistics in addition to widely used postprocessing methods to directly image faint companions to nearby stars near the telescope diffraction limit.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

LBT Reveals Large Dust Particles and a High Mass-loss Rate for K2-22 b

The disintegrating planet candidate K2-22 b shows periodic and stochastic transits best explained by an escaping debris cloud. However, the mechanism that creates the debris cloud is unknown. The grain size of the debris as well as its sublimation rate can be helpful in understanding the environment that disintegrates the planet. Here, we present simultaneous photometry with the g band at 0.48 μm and K {sub S} band at 2.1 μm using the Large Binocular Telescope. During an event with very low dust activity, we put a new upper limit on the size of the planet of 0.71 R {sub ⊕} or 4500 km. We also detected a medium depth transit that can be used to constrain the dust particle sizes. We find that the median particle size must be larger than about 0.5–1.0 μm, depending on the composition of the debris. This leads to a high mass-loss rate of about 3 × 10{sup 8} kg s{sup −1}, which is consistent with hydrodynamic escape models. If they are produced by some alternate mechanism such as explosive volcanism, it would require extraordinary geological activity. Combining our upper limits on the planet size with the high mass-loss rate, we find a lifetime of the planet of less than 370 Myr. This drops to just 21 Myr when adopting the 0.02 M {sub ⊕} mass predicted from hydrodynamical models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmogenic 3 He exposure dating in mafic rocks by “Virtual mineral separation” of pyroxene

We describe a “virtual mineral separation” method for measuring the cosmogenic 3 He concentration in pyroxene in mafic rocks that consist mainly of plagioclase and pyroxene, without physically separating the minerals. This approach is significantly faster and more cost-effective than the conventional method, which requires physical separation and purification of pyroxene grains by time-consuming and labor-intensive crushing, acid cleaning, magnetic separation, HF etching, and handpicking under a microscope. The premise of the method is that helium diffusivity is much higher in plagioclase than in pyroxene, so controlled preheating of a mixed whole-rock sample can degas 3 He from plagioclase while retaining all 3 He in pyroxene. A second heating step releases all 3 He from pyroxene for measurement. To then obtain a 3 He concentration in pyroxene rather than the whole rock, we determine the pyroxene weight fraction in the sample using X-ray computed tomography (CT). A comparison of 3 He concentrations in pyroxene measured using virtual mineral separation with those measured in the same samples by physical mineral separation in previous work shows no evidence of systematic bias between the methods. Virtual mineral separation greatly simplifies the workflow for 3 He exposure-dating of mafic rocks, reduces time, effort, and cost, and permits measurements on very small samples. This enables new emerging applications of exposure dating, such as quantifying stochastic surface processes, ecosystem studies, and potential subglacial bedrock exposure dating.

Geosciences↗