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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of histopathology imaging comprehension algorithms based on multiple instance learning

Whole slide imaging (WSI), also called digital virtual microscopy, is a new imaging modality. It allows for the application of AI and machine learning methods to cancer pathology to help establish a means for the automatic diagnosis of cancer cases. However, designing machine-learning models for WSI is computationally challenging due to its required ultra-high resolution. The current state-of-the-art models use multiple instance learning (MIL). MIL is a weakly-supervised learning method in which the model uses an array of inferences from many smaller instances to make a final classification about the entire set. In the context of WSI, researchers divide the ultra-high-resolution image into many patches. The model then classifies the slide based on an array of inferences from the patches. Among several ways of making the final classification, attention-based mechanisms have resulted in superb accuracy scores. The Transformer, one attention-based algorithm, has reported substantial improvements for WSI comprehension tasks. In this project, we studied and compared several WSI comprehension algorithms. We used the following three datasets: CAMELYON16+17, TCGALung, and TCGA-Kidney. We found that attention-based MIL algorithms performed better than standard MIL algorithms for classifying WSI images, achieving a higher mean accuracy and AUC. However, none of the attention-based algorithms performed significantly better than the others, reporting accuracy scores that varied widely. Presumably, it is due to the limited availability of training samples in the data corpus. Since it is not easy to increase the samples from human subjects, some machine learning techniques like transfer learning could help mitigate this issue.

Saunders, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2022

Direction-optimizing Label Propagation Framework for Structure Detection in Graphs: Design, Implementation, and Experimental Analysis

Label Propagation is not only a well-known machine learning algorithm for classification but also an effective method for discovering communities and connected components in networks. We propose a new Direction-optimizing Label Propagation Algorithm (DOLPA) framework that enhances the performance of the standard Label Propagation Algorithm (LPA), increases its scalability, and extends its versatility and application scope. As a central feature, the DOLPA framework relies on the use of frontiers and alternates between label push and label pull operations to attain high performance. It is formulated in such a way that the same basic algorithm can be used for finding communities or connected components in graphs by only changing the objective function used. Additionally, DOLPA has parameters for tuning the processing order of vertices in a graph to reduce the number of edges visited and improve the quality of solution obtained. We present the design and implementation of the enhanced algorithm as well as our shared-memory parallelization of it using OpenMP. We also present an extensive experimental evaluation of our implementations using the LFR benchmark and real-world networks drawn from various domains. Compared with an implementation of LPA for community detection available in a widely used network analysis software, we achieve at most five times the F-Score while maintaining similar runtime for graphs with overlapping communities. We also compare DOLPA against an implementation of the Louvain method for community detection using the same LFR-graphs and show that DOLPA achieves about three times the F-Score at just 10% of the runtime. For connected component decomposition, our algorithm achieves orders of magnitude speedups over the basic LP-based algorithm on large-diameter graphs, up to 13.2× speedup over the Shiloach-Vishkin algorithm, and up to 1.6× speedup over Afforest on an Intel Xeon processor using 40 threads.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Abuse and Detection of Polyglot Files

A polyglot is a file that is valid in two or more formats. Polyglot files pose a problem for file-upload and generative AI web interfaces that rely on format identification to determine how to securely handle incoming files. In this work we found that existing file-format and embedded-file detection tools, even those developed specifically for polyglot files, fail to reliably detect polyglot files used in the wild. To address this issue, we studied the use of polyglot files by malicious actors in the wild, finding 30 polyglot samples and 15 attack chains that leveraged polyglot files. Using knowledge from our survey of polyglot usage in the wild---the first of its kind---we created a novel data set based on adversary techniques. We then trained a machine learning detection solution, PolyConv, using this data set. PolyConv achieves a precision-recall area-under-curve score of 0.999 with an F1 score of 99.20% for polyglot detection and 99.47% for file-format identification, significantly outperforming all other tools tested. We developed a content disarmament and reconstruction tool, ImSan, that successfully sanitized 100% of the tested image-based polyglots, which were the most common type found via the survey. Our work provides concrete tools and suggestions to enable defenders to better defend themselves against polyglot files, as well as directions for future work to create more robust file specifications and methods of disarmament.

Oesch, T [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269091022)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Study on Fine-Grained Power and Energy Measurements on Grace Hopper GH200 with Open-Source Performance Tools

The increasing adoption of tightly integrated, heterogeneous architectures, combined with the slowdown of Moore’s law, has made application power and energy-driven optimizations critical to efficiently use high-performance computing systems. This paper introduces a newly developed open-source toolkit that seamlessly integrates the Linux real-time hardware monitoring program hwmon with the Performance Application Programming Interface and the Score-P performance measurement system, thereby enabling fine-grained power and energy measurements for high-performance computing applications. Our primary target platform is the Wombat test bed, which is a system based on the NVIDIA GH200 superchip. The toolkit can capture transient power peaks with high temporal resolution (50 ms) and, thanks to Score-P integration, can map power metrics to specific code regions, thereby providing actionable information on power-intensive operations and inefficiencies. The toolkit also provides a holistic view of both the power and the energy consumption of the entire GH200 superchip by covering all major components: the Grace CPU, the Hopper GPU, and the I/O subsystem. Experiments that use Locally Self-consistent Multiple Scattering, which is an application for first-principles calculations of materials developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, have demonstrated the tool’s ability to identify transient power spikes and uncover opportunities for energy-aware optimizations. Additionally, we introduce a Python-based utility for converting Open Trace Format 2 traces to Parquet format, thus enabling advanced data analysis for numerical integration methods applied to power data for accurate energy profiling.

Hernandez Mendoza, Oscar [ORNL] (ORCID:00000002538↗
DOE OSTI2026

SetGo: Metadata Readiness for Scientific AI Datasets

Scientific datasets intended for AI use require both computational readiness for model training and metadata readiness for discovery, sharing, and reuse. The Readiness Engine for Data Integration (REDI) addresses computational readiness, but no corresponding tool evaluates whether a dataset’s metadata are sufficiently complete, governed, and standards-compliant for publication and agent-based consumption. Existing FAIR assessors operate only on published repository records, and no single system covers FAIR compliance, licensing, provenance, governance, reproducibility, and catalog readiness together. We present SetGo, an open-source Python toolkit that assesses and repairs metadata readiness across these six dimensions before a dataset is published or archived. Applied to four scientific corpora, SetGo surfaces deficiencies that general-purpose tools do not detect: ERA5 climate metadata scores 4% on ACDD 1.3 compliance; materials datasets fail OPTIMADE species-definition requirements; and PDB-derived proteomics data carries licensing terms incompatible with standard SPDX identifiers. Guided enrichment raises overall FAIR scores from 52–57% to 81–91%, and a single setgo publish command pushes to Hugging Face Hub, CKAN, or OpenMetadata with ML Commons Croissant 1.0 metadata sidecars. To support interactive and automated workflows, SetGo integrates with coding agents powered by large language models (LLMs) through a /setgo skill that enables natural-language execution of the full assess–enrich–publish loop, with user involvement limited to supplying missing metadata values.

Wilkinson, Sean [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214437479)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inner Engineering Practices and Advanced 4-day Isha Yoga Retreat Are Associated with Cannabimimetic Effects with Increased Endocannabinoids and Short-Term and Sustained Improvement in Mental Health: A Prospective Observational Study of Meditators

Anxiety and depression are common in the modern world, and there is growing demand for alternative therapies such as meditation. Meditation can decrease perceived stress and increase general well-being, although the physiological mechanism is not well-characterized. Endocannabinoids (eCBs), lipid mediators associated with enhanced mood and reduced anxiety/depression, have not been previously studied as biomarkers of meditation effects. Our aim was to assess biomarkers (eCBs and brain-derived neurotrophic factor [BDNF]) and psychological parameters after a meditation retreat. Methods. This was an observational pilot study of adults before and after the 4-day Isha Yoga Bhava Spandana Program retreat. Participants completed online surveys (before and after retreat, and 1 month later) to assess anxiety, depression, focus, well-being, and happiness through validated psychological scales. Voluntary blood sampling for biomarker studies was done before and within a day after the retreat. The biomarkers anandamide, 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG), 1-arachidonoylglycerol (1-AG), docosatetraenoylethanolamide (DEA), oleoylethanolamide (OLA), and BDNF were evaluated. Primary outcomes were changes in psychological scales, as well as changes in eCBs and BDNF. Results. Depression and anxiety scores decreased while focus, happiness, and positive well-being scores increased immediately after retreat from their baseline values (P < 0.001). All improvements were sustained 1 month after BSP. All major eCBs including anandamide, 2-AG, 1-AG, DEA, and BDNF increased after meditation by > 70% (P < 0.001). Increases of ≥20% in anandamide, 2-AG, 1-AG, and total AG levels after meditation from the baseline had weak correlations with changes in happiness and well-being. Conclusions. A short meditation experience improved focus, happiness, and positive well-being and reduced depression and anxiety in participants for at least 1 month. Participants had increased blood eCBs and BDNF, suggesting a role for these biomarkers in the underlying mechanism of meditation. Meditation is a simple, organic, and effective way to improve well-being and reduce depression and anxiety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collective Risk Ranking of Highway Segments on the Basis of Severity-Weighted Crash Rates

This study is intended to focus on the major factors affecting traffic crash rates and severity levels, in addition to identifying crash-prone locations (i.e., black spots) based on the two indicators. The available crash data for different road segments used for the analysis were obtained from the Washington state database provided by the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the years 2006 to 2011. A Random Forest (RF) classifier was used to predict the outcome level of crash severity, while crash rates were predicted by applying RF regressor. Certain features were selected for each model besides the abstraction of new features to check if there are unobserved correlations affecting the independent variables, such as accounting for the number and weight of crashes within 1 km2 area by implementing the Getis-Ord Gi∗ index. Moreover, to calculate the collective risk (CR) score, crash rates were adjusted to incorporate crash severity weights (cost per severity type) and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias via Empirical Bayes (EB) method. Finally, segments were ranked according to their CR score.

Li, Dawei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Longitudinal Trajectories of Memory Performance in Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Background. While breast cancer and its treatments may affect cognition, the longitudinal trajectories of cognition among those receiving differing cancer treatment types remain poorly understood. Prior research suggests hippocampal-prefrontal cortex network integrity may influence cognition, although how this network predicts performance over time remains unclear. Methods. We conducted a prospective trial including 69 patients with early-stage breast cancer receiving adjuvant therapy and 12 controls. Longitudinal cognitive testing was conducted at four visits: pretreatment-baseline, 6-7 months, 14-15 months, and 23-24 months. Cognitive composite scores of episodic memory, executive functioning, and processing speed were assessed at each timepoint. Baseline structural MRI was obtained in a subset of these participants, and hippocampal and prefrontal cortex regional volumes were extracted. Results. Longitudinal linear mixed modeling revealed significant group by time interactions on memory performance, controlling for age and education. Post hoc analyses revealed this effect was driven by patients treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy, who demonstrated the least improvement in memory scores over time. Treatment group did not significantly influence the relationship between time and processing speed or executive functioning. Neither pretreatment hippocampal nor prefrontal volume differed between groups, and there were no significant group by time by baseline regional volume effects on cognition. Conclusion. Patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy benefit less from practice effects seen in healthy controls on memory tests. Loss of longitudinal practice effect may be a new and clinically relevant measure for capturing patients’ experience of cognitive difficulties after treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Low Frequency Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) Combined with Hyperbaric Oxygen (HBO) on Awakening of Coma Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury

Coma caused by craniocerebral injury is a common condition of neurosurgical acute injury. There is no specific method to promote awakening in a clinic. Early comprehensive treatment may be helpful to patients. The common methods are hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) and low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). However, the application effect and mechanism of rTMS combined with HBO on coma patients with traumatic brain injury need to be further studied. The brain stem auditory evoked potential (BAEP) is examined by the Kennedy coma recovery scale (CRS-R), the recovery of brain function and the state of consciousness are evaluated, and the therapeutic effect is evaluated by the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Cerebrospinal fluid NE level, MCA blood flow velocity, and left brainstem and right brainstem auditory evoked potential are used to evaluate brain rehabilitation. RTMS combined with HBO could shorten the wake-up time, improve the wake-up rate, improve the GCS score and CRS-R score, shorten the brain wave latency time of the left and right brainstem, increase the NE level of cerebrospinal fluid, and decrease the blood flow velocity of MCA. RTMS combines with HBO can improve the nerve excitability of brain cells, reduce the disturbance of consciousness, promote the functional recovery of brain injury, and has a certain role in promoting the awakening of patients with traumatic brain injury coma.

Liu, Mei↗
DOE OSTI2023

EI_MS_ML

The unambiguous identification of compounds from their electron ionization mass (EI-MS) spectra remains a significant unsolved problem in the field of metabolomics and analytical chemistry as a whole. Typically EI-MS spectra are compared using various mathematical operations that convert the spectral similarity or differences into a distance-like metric that roughly approximates the similarity of any two spectra. A commonly used metric for this is the cosine similarity metric which has values close to one for very similar spectra and a value of zero for very dissimilar spectra; however, no metric is perfect. Due to the prevalence of structurally-similar compounds such as isomers and the prevalence of certain fragmentation patterns across structurally-dissimilar compounds, the unambiguous assignment of EI-MS spectra compounds remains difficult. Frequently, querying an observed EI-MS spectrum against a large database such as the NIST17 library yields multiple possible assignments requiring the end user to distinguish between multiple high scoring hits, or multiple low scoring hits while keeping in mind that the correct hit may not be in the database at all. Although techniques such as orthogonal information from techniques such as chromatography can greatly aid in unambiguous assignment, this also requires more complicated experimental designs and access to more complicated analytical instrumentation. Substructures can be trivially detected and represented as strings using a previously published technique called node coloring from a known chemical structure. However, for experimentally-derived EI-MS spectra this information must be derived from the spectra itself (i.e., because we do not know what compound it represents). To achieve this, the software uses techniques from the field of machine learning and a large training dataset of EI-MS spectra corresponding to known structures annotated with substructure strings, to build models that can predict the presence of a given chemical substructure from an EI-MS spectrum directly.If these predictions are of high-quality (i.e., are unlikely to be false positives), the presence of one or more predicted substructures can be used to constrain the number of possible hits for a query spectrum. Mathematically, this restriction could be expressed in many forms, but the most straight-forward implementation is to weight the cosine similarity of a query spectrum and a plausible database match with a Tanimoto-like coefficient based on the ratio of the number of substructures predicted to the number of substructures present in the potential database hit. Determining which combination of models best reduces assignment ambiguity will be achieved using a combination of manual curation and optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms. This software will perform all the steps necessary to construct said models from a training dataset and evaluate them using a holdout dataset. Various statistical analyses can be performed to determine if this approach does decrease assignment ambiguity. For example, if this approach works, on average, the rank-order of the correct assignment for the holdout set of EI-MS spectra should decrease and the weighted cosine similarities for most of the possible matches in the database should be better than the unweighted cosine similarities. Furthermore, this same pipeline can be used on real experimental data to generate less ambiguous assignments.

Mitchell, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2023

PECAN2

PECAN2, Pose Classification with 3D Atomic Network 2, presents an innovative approach to pose classification in computational modeling, particularly in the context of molecular docking. Traditional methods like docking, which rely on physics-based calculations, are prone to inaccuracies in predicting binding poses during experimental testing. While machine learning (ML) approaches, such as ML-driven pose classification, have been introduced to address these issues, they often depend on the availability of crystal structure data. In contrast, PECAN2 introduces a novel pose classification method that operates independently of crystal structures. Instead, it utilizes a 3D atomic neural network with Point Cloud Network (PCN) to establish correlations between docking scores and experimental data. This approach marks a departure from previous studies that heavily relied on crystal structures for labeling. The key innovation lies in the ability of PECAN2 to enhance the performance of molecular docking by filtering out false positives and false negatives through the correlation between docking scores and experimental data.

Shim, Heesung↗
DOE OSTI2026

matsim-agents v1.0

matsim-agents is a multi-agent AI framework for atomistic materials simulation and discovery. It orchestrates large language models (LLMs), machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), and DFT codes into a single agentic loop running on laptops and DOE leadership-class supercomputers. MULTI-AGENT ORCHESTRATION A LangGraph state machine with three nodes: a Planner that converts a natural-language research objective into structured tasks; an Executor that dispatches atomistic tools and loops until the queue is empty; and an Analyst that summarizes results into a human-readable report. State is checkpointed after every step and human-in-the-loop gates can be inserted at any edge. HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN DISCOVERY CHAT An interactive REPL (matsim-agents chat) that couples LLM dialogue with atomistic simulation. Chemical formulas are automatically detected in conversation turns and trigger a full crystal-phase exploration: structure generation → relaxation → stability scoring → result injection back into the conversation, creating a closed hypothesis-refinement loop. CRYSTAL PHASE ENUMERATION Given a composition, the phase explorer enumerates prototypes by stoichiometry: elemental (fcc/bcc/hcp/sc/diamond), binary 1:1 (rocksalt/CsCl/zincblende/ wurtzite/fluorite/rutile), ternary 1:1:3 (cubic perovskite), ternary 1:2:4 (perovskite + spinel), quaternary 1:1:2:6 (Fm-3m double perovskite). 2-D prototypes (graphene, h-BN, MoS2 2H/1T) and multilayer stacking are also supported via --include-2d and --num-layers. SUPERCELL GENERATION AND SITE DECORATION Auto-tiling to a minimum atom count (--min-atoms), explicit NxNxN tiling (--supercell), symmetry-distinct site decorations (--n-orderings), and isotropic lattice-scale sweeps (--lattice-scales) for volume bracketing. MLFF RELAXATION AND STABILITY SCORING HydraGNN (multi-headed GNN) drives structure relaxation via ASE with FIRE, BFGS, or BFGSLineSearch. Stability output: delta-E/atom ranking across phases and a max-residual-force dynamical-stability proxy. Other MLIPs (MACE, NequIP, Orb) can be plugged in through the same interface. DFT BACKENDS Quantum ESPRESSO pw.x and VASP 6.6 are first-class labellers. Both have validated GPU builds and SLURM/PBS launchers for three DOE platforms: Frontier (AMD MI250X, ROCm), Aurora (Intel PVC, oneAPI), Perlmutter (NVIDIA A100, CUDA). QE produces ~100 binaries (pw.x, ph.x, epw.x, ...). VASP supports scf, relax, vc-relax, and vc-relax-shape run types. ACTIVE-LEARNING LOOP matsim-agents al run CONFIG.yaml drives an iterative HydraGNN-DFT loop: MD generates candidates → ensemble/MC-dropout uncertainty selects the most informative → DFT labels them in parallel inside one allocation → dataset grows → HydraGNN retrains → repeat. DFT backend is a single YAML toggle (dft.backend: vasp | qe). LLM-generated seed structures are supported (no curated POSCAR library needed). Config uses ${VAR}, ${VAR:-default}, ${VAR:?msg} shell-style substitution for cross-user/cross-site portability. LLM BACKENDS Ollama (local, default), vLLM (HPC multi-GPU serving), OpenAI, Anthropic, HuggingFace Transformers+Accelerate. Selected at runtime via flag or env var with no code changes. HPC PORTABILITY Same Python entry points run on Frontier (ROCm 7.2), Aurora (oneAPI), and Perlmutter (CUDA 12). DFT and ML stacks are never co-loaded in the same shell; they couple through the scheduler and filesystem. Advanced multi-node launchers (serve, discovery-chat, single-relaxation, active-learning, QE warm-start) are provided for all three platforms. CODABENCH COMPETITION BUNDLE A self-contained benchmark: 159 atomistic test structures across 11 material classes, 5 tasks (formation energy, forces, ML relaxation, AI-DFT relaxation, phase stability ranking), public/private leaderboard split (30/70), and four ready-to-run baselines: MACE-MP-0, HydraGNN, UMA, AllScAIP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [Oak Ridge National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a next-generation sequencing-based multigene assay to predict the prognosis of estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer

Purpose: Multigene assays provide useful prognostic information regarding hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based platforms have numerous advantages including reproducibility and adaptability in local laboratories. Here we aimed to develop and validate an NGS-based multigene assay to predict the distant recurrence risk. Experimental Design: In total, 179 genes including 30 reference genes highly correlated with the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) algorithm were selected from public databases. Targeted RNA-sequencing was performed using 250 and 93 archived breast cancer samples with a known RS in the training and verification sets, respectively, to develop the algorithm and NGS–Prognostic Score (NGS-PS). The assay was validated in 413 independent samples with long-term follow-up data on distant metastasis. Results: In the verification set, the NGS-PS and 21-gene RS displayed 91.4% concurrence (85/93 samples). In the validation cohort of 413 samples, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plotted using NGS-PS values classified for distant recurrence was 0.76. The best NGS-PS cut-off value predicting distant metastasis was 20. Furthermore, 269 and 144 patients were classified as low- and high-risk patients in accordance with the cut-off. Five- and 10-year estimates of distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS) for low- versus high-risk groups were 97.0% versus 77.8% and 93.2% versus 64.4%, respectively. The age-related HR for distant recurrence without chemotherapy was 9.73 (95% CI, 3.59–26.40) and 3.19 (95% CI, 1.40–7.29) for patients aged ≤50 and >50 years, respectively. Conclusions: The newly developed and validated NGS-based multigene assay can predict the distant recurrence risk in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The spatially resolved transcriptome signatures of glomeruli in chronic kidney disease

Here, we used digital spatial profiling (DSP) to describe the glomerular transcriptomic signatures that may characterize the complex molecular mechanisms underlying progressive kidney disease in Alport syndrome, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, and membranous nephropathy. Our results revealed significant transcriptional heterogeneity among diseased glomeruli, and this analysis showed that histologically similar glomeruli manifested different transcriptional profiles. Using glomerular pathology scores to establish an axis of progression, we identified molecular pathways with progressively decreased expression in response to increasing pathology scores, including signal recognition particle–dependent cotranslational protein targeting to membrane and selenocysteine synthesis pathways. We also identified a distinct signature of upregulated and downregulated genes common to all the diseases investigated when compared with nondiseased tissue from nephrectomies. These analyses using DSP at the single-glomerulus level could help to increase insight into the pathophysiology of kidney disease and possibly the identification of biomarkers of disease progression in glomerulopathies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations

The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice-edge error, Brier score, and Spatial Probability Score. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979-2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic sub-regions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neck Muscle Coactivation Response to Varied Levels of Mental Workload During Simulated Flight Tasks

Objective To evaluate neck muscle coactivation across different levels of mental workload during simulated flight tasks. Background Neck pain (NP) is highly prevalent among military aviators. Given the complex nature within the flight environment, mental workload may be a risk factor for NP. This may induce higher levels of neck muscle coactivity, which over time may accelerate fatigue, increase neck discomfort, and affect flight task performance. Method Three counterbalanced mental workload conditions represented by simulated flight tasks modulated by interstimulus frequency and complexity were investigated using the Modifiable Multitasking Environment (ModME). The primary measure was a neck coactivation index to describe the neuromuscular effort of the neck muscles as a system. Additional measures included perceived workload (NASA TLX), subjective discomfort, and task performance. Participants ( n = 60; 30M, 30F) performed three test conditions over 1 hr each while seated in a simulated seating environment. Results Neck coactivation indices (CoA) and subjective neck discomfort corresponded with increasing level of mental workload. Average CoAs for low, medium, and high workloads were: .0278(SD = .0232), .0286(SD = .0231), and .0295(SD = .0228), respectively. NASA TLX mental, temporal, effort, and overall scores also increased with the level of mental workload assigned. For ModME task performance, the overall performance score, monitoring accuracy, and resource management accuracy decreased while reaction times increased with the increasing level of mental workload. Communication accuracy was lowest with the low mental workload but had higher reaction times relative to increasing workload. Conclusion Mental workload affects neck muscle coactivation during combinations of simulated flight tasks within a simulated helicopter seating environment. Application The results of this study provide insights into the physical response to mental workload. With increasing multisensory modalities within the work environment, these insights may assist the consideration of physical effects from cognitive factors.

Behavioral Sciences↗