Results for “Risk Analyses” — Page 26

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Rivalia Chemical Co

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) will assist Rivalia Chemical Co (Participant) with system analyses to aid the Participant with setting priorities and securing funding. The Participant is an early-stage startup pioneering new chemical extraction technology to solve two important problems: critical mineral scarcity and coal ash waste management. The U.S. generates coal fly ash from coal combustion for power generation and has amassed over two billion metric tons of ash, which contains valuable rare earth elements. The ash is often stored in unlined ponds and frequently contaminates the local environment. The Participant’s patent-pending process harvests rare earths from ash, then transforms the residual ash for use in green concrete, providing an economic pathway for utilities to empty and remediate the ash ponds. Founder Laura Stoy created the company in July 2022 after developing the core intellectual property during her Ph.D. at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Stoy is currently participating in the Chain Reactions Innovations (CRI) program at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) where she will be optimizing the core technology and scaling from bench scale to demonstration scale. The technology has been validated at bench scale (TRL3); the goal is to approach TRL5 by the conclusion of the CRI program and prepare to raise capital investment for a pilot facility. NETL and the Participant will develop an updated technoeconomic analysis (TEA) and identify key sustainability performance parameters to inform ’s research and development priorities and de-risk the technology. NETL will also provide the Participant with guidance to prepare a more detailed life cycle assessment (LCA), and a narrative on the Participant’s product markets. These tools will aid the Participant with the next steps of commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mapping Support for Targeted Critical Minerals Exploration and Extraction

The United States’ dependency on imported minerals poses significant risks to economic stability and national security due to potential supply disruptions. Recognizing the strategic importance of critical minerals, the Department of Energy (DOE) emphasizes the need for a secure and resilient supply chain to support emissions reduction, technology development, and capitalization on clean energy opportunities. The DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC), in collaboration with the Office of Policy (OP), addresses these vulnerabilities by focusing on upstream domestic critical minerals production, balancing extraction with social and environmental goals, including conservation, environmental justice, and respect for Tribal sovereignty. This report showcases a collaborative effort involving Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map mineral development potential along with key social and environmental datasets. A geographical information system (GIS)-based web map application was developed as a preliminary tool for environmental analysis, integrating 158 geospatial data layers such as critical habitat, land ownership, economic indicators, and environmental concerns. Data were sourced from agencies like the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and USGS and processed using GIS technology to enhance visualization and analysis. The proposed analysis framework categorizes areas into high, mid, and low concern based on withdrawn lands, special status species, the Economic Development Capacity Index (EDCI) Mining Composite Index, and the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST). While the application provides broad visualizations, it is not a substitute for detailed environmental reviews required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Users must conduct further analyses and engage with tribal entities and other stakeholders for comprehensive planning. A case study of the Idaho Cobalt Belt (ICB) in Lemhi County, Idaho, has been provided in the report to illustrate the tool's practical use. This report introduces a GIS application and framework to support stakeholders in identifying and prioritizing areas for critical mineral exploration, promoting secure supply chains, and advancing the nation's energy independence through responsible resource stewardship.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Annual Report

The National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (User Resource) will provide isotopic analysis (primarily radiocarbon or 14C) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for NIH- funded researchers across the United States and will be the only User Resource of its type in the United States. The User Resource will provide measurement capability and expertise to a research community that requires highly sensitive, quantitative isotope analyses. Since commissioning a new accelerator mass spectrometer in June 2014, we have measured over 4000 samples a year for collaborators and service users. The User Resource will enable us to continue to meet these research needs, as well as provide for new users whose research programs would benefit from AMS as a measurement tool. The User Resource’s forte will be ultra-high sensitivity quantitation of radiocarbon and selected other radioisotopes for research studies where isotopes are required. Radioisotope labeling studies have been and will continue to be an important tool for addressing many complex biomedical science problems. AMS is a specialized and unique type of mass spectrometry that provides absolute quantitation of radiocarbon and other relevant radioisotopes with extreme sensitivity, having limits of detection in real samples on the order of a few attomol/mg of sample at measurement precisions of ~3%. It is the only instrumental method capable of quantifying radioisotope-labeled agents routinely in real-world samples with such precision and sensitivity. The sensitivity of AMS allows for the quantification of radiolabeled metabolites in extremely complex matrices of cells and organisms at very low concentrations and in small samples. AMS allows studies to be conducted without perturbing metabolism leading to more relevant quantification of metabolic rates and pathways. In addition, it enables quantification of pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties of toxicants at environmentally relevant concentrations in model systems as well as the ability to quantify pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans. Such quantitative assessments can 1) improve risk assessment for toxicants, 2) address safety and efficacy considerations for therapeutic entities, 3) deepen understanding of xenobiotic and intermediary metabolism, 4) help understand the interactions between critical molecular pathways, and 5) improve efforts to model and predict various metabolic and biological states. These capabilities have been applied in a number of areas including research in carcinogenesis, toxicology, nutrition, pharmacology/drug development and basic biological science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry

The National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (User Resource) will provide isotopic analysis (primarily radiocarbon or 14C) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for NIH- funded researchers across the United States and will be the only User Resource of its type in the United States. The User Resource will provide measurement capability and expertise to a research community that requires highly sensitive, quantitative isotope analyses. Since commissioning a new accelerator mass spectrometer in June 2014, we have measured over 4000 samples a year for collaborators and service users. The User Resource will enable us to continue to meet these research needs, as well as provide for new users whose research programs would benefit from AMS as a measurement tool. The User Resource’s forte will be ultra-high sensitivity quantitation of radiocarbon and selected other radioisotopes for research studies where isotopes are required. Radioisotope labeling studies have been and will continue to be an important tool for addressing many complex biomedical science problems. AMS is a specialized and unique type of mass spectrometry that provides absolute quantitation of radiocarbon and other relevant radioisotopes with extreme sensitivity, having limits of detection in real samples on the order of a few attomol/mg of sample at measurement precisions of ~3%. It is the only instrumental method capable of quantifying radioisotope-labeled agents routinely in real-world samples with such precision and sensitivity. The sensitivity of AMS allows for the quantification of radiolabeled metabolites in extremely complex matrices of cells and organisms at very low concentrations and in small samples. AMS allows studies to be conducted without perturbing metabolism leading to more relevant quantification of metabolic rates and pathways. In addition, it enables quantification of pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties of toxicants at environmentally relevant concentrations in model systems as well as the ability to quantify pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans. Such quantitative assessments can 1) improve risk assessment for toxicants, 2) address safety and efficacy considerations for therapeutic entities, 3) deepen understanding of xenobiotic and intermediary metabolism, 4) help understand the interactions between critical molecular pathways, and 5) improve efforts to model and predict various metabolic and biological states. These capabilities have been applied in a number of areas including research in carcinogenesis, toxicology, nutrition, pharmacology/drug development and basic biological science. As a NIGMS National Resource the National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry will help NIH funded scientists achieve a deeper understanding of the etiology of human health concerns by (1) enabling the quantification of pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans; (2) offering the ability to conduct quantitative studies using biologics such as proteins or lipids, and thereby reducing the amount of radioisotope usage in biomedical labs; and (3) enabling more relevant studies of metabolic pathways in health and disease through the use of much lower, more biologically-relevant, concentrations of metabolic substrates in cells and intact organisms. Such studies support NIGMS’s basic biomedical research areas that contribute to the understanding of fundamental cellular and physiological principles and enable research supported by the Biophysics, Biomedical Technology, and Computational Biosciences (BBCB); Genetics and Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology (GMCDB); Pharmacology, Physiology, Biological Chemistry (PPBC) and Training, Workforce Development, and Diversity (TWD) Divisions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (Final Report)

The National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (User Resource) will provide isotopic analysis (primarily radiocarbon or 14C) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for NIH- funded researchers across the United States and will be the only User Resource of its type in the United States. The User Resource will provide measurement capability and expertise to a research community that requires highly sensitive, quantitative isotope analyses. Since commissioning a new accelerator mass spectrometer in June 2014, we have measured over 4000 samples a year for collaborators and service users. The User Resource will enable us to continue to meet these research needs, as well as provide for new users whose research programs would benefit from AMS as a measurement tool. The User Resource’s forte will be ultra-high sensitivity quantitation of radiocarbon and selected other radioisotopes for research studies where isotopes are required. Radioisotope labeling studies have been and will continue to be an important tool for addressing many complex biomedical science problems. AMS is a specialized and unique type of mass spectrometry that provides absolute quantitation of radiocarbon and other relevant radioisotopes with extreme sensitivity, having limits of detection in real samples on the order of a few attomol/mg of sample at measurement precisions of ~3%. It is the only instrumental method capable of quantifying radioisotope-labeled agents routinely in real-world samples with such precision and sensitivity. The sensitivity of AMS allows for the quantification of radiolabeled metabolites in extremely complex matrices of cells and organisms at very low concentrations and in small samples. AMS allows studies to be conducted without perturbing metabolism leading to more relevant quantification of metabolic rates and pathways. In addition, it enables quantification of pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties of toxicants at environmentally relevant concentrations in model systems as well as the ability to quantify pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans. Such quantitative assessments can 1) improve risk assessment for toxicants, 2) address safety and efficacy considerations for therapeutic entities, 3) deepen understanding of xenobiotic and intermediary metabolism, 4) help understand the interactions between critical molecular pathways, and 5) improve efforts to model and predict various metabolic and biological states. These capabilities have been applied in a number of areas including research in carcinogenesis, toxicology, nutrition, pharmacology/drug development and basic biological science. As a NIGMS National Resource the National User Resource for Biological Accelerator Mass Spectrometry will help NIH funded scientists achieve a deeper understanding of the etiology of human health concerns by (1) enabling the quantification of pharmacokinetics and other molecular endpoints directly in humans; (2) offering the ability to conduct quantitative studies using biologics such as proteins or lipids, and thereby reducing the amount of radioisotope usage in biomedical labs; and (3) enabling more relevant studies of metabolic pathways in health and disease through the use of much lower, more biologically-relevant, concentrations of metabolic substrates in cells and intact organisms. Such studies support NIGMS’s basic biomedical research areas that contribute to the understanding of fundamental cellular and physiological principles and enable research supported by the Biophysics, Biomedical Technology, and Computational Biosciences (BBCB); Genetics and Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology (GMCDB); Pharmacology, Physiology, Biological Chemistry (PPBC) and Training, Workforce Development, and Diversity (TWD) Divisions. Over the next five years, our goals are to: 1. Improve the efficiency of operation for AMS measurements through installation of new interfaces to our AMS systems, technical modifications to improve gas accepting ion source efficiency and upgrading our data analysis software for improved ease of use and data reporting. 2. Increase the accessibility and visibility of ultra-sensitive 14C measurements for the biomedical research community by training of new investigators and expanding our national user base. 3. Provide high throughput, ultra-sensitive 14C analysis for the NIGMS and NIH user community.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing dimethyl ether with ultra-low-grade heat for scaling-resistant brine concentration and fractional crystallization

Solvent-driven separations may enable scalable concentration of hypersaline brines, supporting a circular resource economy from the extraction of lithium and rare earth elements from spent battery and magnet leachates. This work analyses a novel solvent-driven water extraction (SDWE) system employing dimethyl ether (DME) and ultra-low-grade heat for brine concentration and fractional crystallization. SDWE exploits DME’s unique properties: (1) a low dielectric constant that promotes water solubility over charged solutes by a factor of 10 3 , and (2) a high volatility that facilitate efficient DME reconcentration with ultra-low-grade heat. The techno-economic viability of SDWE is assessed with a computational framework that encompasses a liquid–liquid separator and a solvent concentrator. We integrate the extended universal quasichemical model with the virial equation of state to predict the compositions of the complex three-phase DME-water mixture at vapor–liquid and liquid–liquid equilibrium. Subsequently, we optimize the thermodynamic and economic performance of SDWE, by controlling the interstage flash pressure, heat source temperature, and the number of concentrating stages. DME-based SDWE concentrates an input saline feed to 5.5 M and regenerates over 99 % of the DME using ultra-low-grade heat below 50 °C, with a DME/water selectivity ratio of 125. Here our calculations reveal that optimal performance is achieved at interstage flash pressures of 0.4 – 0.5 bar for heat source temperatures between 323–373 K, with improved exergetic efficiencies at lower temperatures. At a heat source temperature of 323 K and an interstage pressure of 0.489 bar, DME-driven SDWE achieves an optimal thermodynamic efficiency of 20.5 % and a projected specific cost of US$ 1.93 m -3 . These specific costs suggest that SDWE is competitive with commercialized thermal distillation technologies, while mitigating the traditional risks associated with scaling in heat and mass exchangers with hypersaline brines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Direct and Indirect Influence on EV Charging Stations Across the US

The adoption of new technology for electric vehicles (EV) and mobility applications can bring underappreciated vulnerabilities to the power grid. One area of potential fraud and adversarial influence is through the business ecosystem of startups that own and deploy EV technology. Yet, there are no models or analyses that map the network of organizations and people that have direct and indirect influence over technologies currently deployed in the grid. To fill this gap, we develop a multilayer network model to measure direct and indirect influence on EV charging stations. First, we create and adversarial socio-technical network (ASTN) model via a data fusion pipeline for different US regions of interest (ROI). Then, we develop an integrated ASTN for Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia. We rank EV charging companies direct influence within each geographic region as well as indirect influence via social network analysis. While some companies have strong direct and indirect influence (i.e., ChargePoint) others show a mismatch between their influence over charging stations and their position within the social network. For example, Tesla has strong direct influence on stations and weak indirect influence over competitors. In contrast, 7Charge has weak direct influence over stations, but strong indirect influence over competitors.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Large Language Models for Real-World Data Evidence: A Framework for Automated Treatment Extraction and Data Harmonization

Background: The ability to comprehensively collect treatment information from cancer patient medical records would enable studies to evaluate real-world benefits and risks tied to specific treatments. Currently, it is difficult to system- atically collect high-quality treatment information because it is often stored in unstructured text. Manually extracting and standardizing drug and regimen data is time-intensive. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer a potential solution for automated extraction of structured treatment information from clinical text. Objective: This study systematically evaluates the utility of four LLMs from the Llama family for automated extraction of oncology treatment information from clinical text. This information can guide researchers using cancer registry data to provide insights into cancer care and outcomes beyond clinical trials. Methods: Four instruction-tuned Llama models with varying parameter counts (1B, 3B, 8B, and 70B) were evaluated for their ability to extract treatment information from clinical documents. A unified oncology knowledge base integrating seven major public data sources was developed to standardize and normalize extracted entities—a critical step for harmonizing data from diverse sources. Extracted treatment data were compared against expert-annotated ground truth. Model performance was assessed using accuracy metrics (Precision, Recall, F1-Score) and opera- tional feasibility metrics, including processing speed and structural compliance of the output. Results: A strong positive correlation was observed between model size and extraction accuracy. F1-score improved from 0.609 for the 1B model to 0.710 (3B), 0.807 (8B), and 0.828 (70B). While larger models demonstrated superior accuracy and compliance, they incurred higher computational costs. The modest performance difference between 8B and 70B suggests diminishing returns with increasing model size. Conclusions: LLMs represent a viable technology for automating oncology treatment extraction. The 8B-parameter model emerged as a highly effective option, balancing high accuracy and computational efficiency. Selecting an appropriate LLM for deployment in cancer registries involves a trade-off between desired accuracy and available operational resources. Harmonizing extracted entities with the oncology knowledge base facilitates standardized integration into common data models, enhancing data quality for real-world evidence analyses.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Fish Exclusion and Passage Technologies for Hydropower

Hydropower represents a reliable source of renewable energy and accounts for approximately 7% of the total electrical generation in the United States. Future expansion of hydropower is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development projects or powering existing non-powered dams. For these new projects to be successful, careful analysis of risks, costs, and uncertainty to offset reduced power production as well as ensuring the protection and safe passage of migratory fish to gain public support, will be required. Exclusion and passage are two common approaches to protect fish from entrainment and impingement at hydropower facilities. The thresholds for entrainment risk and requirements for exclusion and passage often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders. While the costs associated with environmental mitigations represent a large proportion of the total costs required for the licensing of hydropower facilities, little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion and passage. Working with FOA awardee Natel Energy, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were tasked with assessing the capital construction costs for downstream fish exclusion and passage infrastructure. This report used keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction of additional cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening and passage from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 PM&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens, 142 pertaining to passage studies, and 26 pertaining to passage-related studies. PM&E measures associated with positive barrier screens represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with new stream development (NSD) projects. Results from these data indicate highly variable costs associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1 to 2 in.). Furthermore, estimated capital costs of passage infrastructure were positively related to the scale of the project based on installed capacity for some, but not all, types of passage. These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion and passage costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects. More data may still be available within the FERC eLibrary, but significant effort will be required to manually identify and extract the data for future analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature Linear Receiver Enabled by Multicomponent Aerogels

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technology has significant potential mainly due to its dispatchability and low cost of storage. However, to compete with other sources, including utility-scale solar PV, its final cost (cents/kWh) still needs to be lowered. Cost reduction can be achieved by improving the system level efficiency of the CST plants through the deployment of advanced power cycles, which operate at high temperatures of ~700°C. However, optical, and thermal losses pose a major challenge to the efficiency of such CST systems. The overall aim of this project is to investigate and de-risk a linear solar receiver concept called an Aerogel Insulated Receiver (AIR) that generates high temperatures (up to 700°C) at a low solar concentration ratio (<100) and with a high collection efficiency (optical × receiver). Our prior work has demonstrated the thermal stability1 and optical and heat-insulating properties2,3 of transparent aerogel insulation at a one-inch scale. The focus of this work is on (1) co-optimization of the geometry of the aerogel tile and receiver enclosure to fit a standard parabolic collector (PTC), (2) scale-up of aerogels into 4-inch tiles while preserving key properties, (3) experimental measurement of receiver heat loss (W/m) in a >70-cm test stand and validation of anticipated receiver performance at high temperatures. Regarding (1), appropriate optical and thermal models for a parabolic trough receiver (PTR) are developed and validated. The geometry of the aerogels and the receiver enclosure are co-optimized to maximize the collection efficiency. The model predicts a 54% collection efficiency at 700°C for an AIR design based on flat aerogels. By combining the collection efficiency with the power block efficiency of supercritical CO 2 cycles, we predict >10% improvements in peak plant efficiency relative to existing line-focusing CST systems. The application of curved plasmonic aerogels is predicted to further increase the collection efficiency to 64%. Regarding (2), we demonstrate the successful development of 6-inch-long refractory aerogel tiles with optical, thermal, and stability characteristics consistent with our prior work. This scale-up requires a transition to a larger ALD station and modifying the ALD process variables such as exposure time and the number of precursor doses. Regarding (3), we design and develop an AIR test stand measuring 3 feet in length. Heat loss performance analysis is carried out using the test stand. The results indicate that aerogel insulation can significantly reduce receiver thermal losses at the high operating temperatures required for next-generation PTRs. The experimental results agree with the heat loss performance predicted by our receiver model. Lastly, we conducted preliminary failure mode and effects (FMEA) and techno-economic (TEA) analyses to identify failure mitigation strategies and commercial opportunities, respectively. Overall, this project identifies key opportunities and challenges in deploying aerogel insulating receivers in next-generation line-focusing CST technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Salt Sampling FY21 Technical Report

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches to enable high-precision in-process salt sample analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Tools currently under development in support of this goal include (1) a modular vacuum sampler with an accompanying sample handling method for coupling vacuum sampling with high-precision at-line sample analysis, (2) a pneumatic sample generator that enables high-throughput sample analysis to improve the precision of existing analytical techniques, and (3) a windowless flow cell to enable on-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop. Compared to point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), vacuum sampling systems and on-line sampling loops facilitate access to a larger cross-section of a process fluid. This is known to improve the characterization of the process fluid by producing more representative samples and by enabling the analysis of a larger cross section of the fluid. A vacuum sampling approach for molten salts eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. In FY21, two methods for integrating a vacuum sampler with a pneumatic sample generator were tested. These included direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the extreme conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampler and pneumatic sample generator, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the tube transfer method and discharge mechanism were tested in FY21. These were deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The method was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques. This will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based accountancy measurements by eliminating the need for manual off-line sample processing and analysis. On-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop would provide complementary information to at-line and in-situ techniques. In FY21, an open-aperture molten salt gravity flow cell with windowless optical access to flowing salt was successfully demonstrated. Future work should include the refinement and performance testing of the on-line and at-line sampling tools, integration of additional analysis techniques, stakeholder outreach and collaboration, evaluation of the integrated methods, and analyses to determine how the various tools might fit into an integrated safeguards monitoring system of unattended near real time monitoring tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technical Performance of Refractory Liners for Molten Chloride Salt Thermal Energy Storage Systems

A chloride-based molten-salt system that uses a ternary blend of MgCl2/KCl/NaCl is investigated to provide higher temperature thermal energy storage capability. Despite higher thermal stability, molten chlorides present several unique challenges, including the design of internal refractory-ceramic liners to prevent the corrosion and thermal stress of alloy tank shells. This work discusses issues and potential solutions related to containment of molten chloride salt, specifically the optimization of the refractory material at the molten salt interface (hot face). The down-selected hot face candidate limits permeation of salt through the material and forms a highly stable secondary surface phase in equilibrium with the molten salt. A mortar is created using the corrosion resistant hot face brick. Brick and mortar composite are subjected to mechanical stress/strain analysis, in order to calculate composite material properties and better inform thermomechanical models. The U.S. Department of Energy Generation 3 (DOE Gen3) program seeks to develop higher efficiency CSP plants that can provide cost-competitive, flexible power in the U.S. electric grid. The proposed Gen3 Liquid Pathway CSP plant closely resembles the configuration of current nitrate salt power towers with two-tank storage (Gen2). The differences between Gen2 and Gen3 include the types of compatible materials used in salt storage tank construction. Stainless steel loses strength at Gen3 temperatures, and although nickel superalloys would be capable of withstanding sustained high temperatures, these materials are prohibitively expensive at scale. Uninsulated tank shells also pose a significant risk as common steels are highly susceptible to chemical attack from molten chloride salt. To address these concerns, refractory-ceramic based containment materials are proposed to line the inside of the hot and cold storage tanks. In doing so, stainless or carbon steel shells may be used in construction depending on the level of insulation provided. The composition of the internal liner requires careful consideration to maximize the efficacy of multiple parameters including corrosion resistance, strength at operating temperature, durability, and cost. This is particularly true for the material at the interface with the salt, known as the "hot face", which is responsible for protecting the insulating layers between the tank shell and the hot face brick layer. The molten salt in this system is superheated over 300 °C above its freeze temperature. Therefore, unlike other industrial processes which use refractory-lined vessels, it is not expected that a freeze plane will develop in the hot face. Therefore, the hot face must be designed to withstand chemical corrosion and inhibit permeation of molten salt into the insulating layers. A down selection was performed to identify a hot face candidate best equipped to maintain thermal, mechanical, and chemical integrity when exposed to molten salt over extended periods of time. Long-duration chemical capability experiments were conducted with the down selected hot face refractory fully immersed in molten chloride salt for up to 3000 hours. The average salt penetration does not exceed 100 microns. When extrapolated to 20 and 30 years of continuous exposure, the expected salt penetration depth is approximately 2.0 mm and 2.9 mm, respectively. A magnesium-rich secondary phases develops at the salt/refractory interface. X-ray diffraction identifies the material as forsterite (Mg2SiO4), which is reported to form synthetically in molten chloride salt solutions. These results suggest the selected hot face will adequately inhibit salt permeation. While there is optimism that the hot face brick will inhibit salt permeation, mortar joints are typically the weakest point of a refractory brick liner. From a thermochemical perspective, differing thermal expansion coefficients may result in the mortar and brick to grow independent of each other, creating gaps through which molten salt can penetrate. To address this issue, NREL has developed an in-house mortar composed of the down selected hot face brick that has been shown to be compatible with the salt. Compressive stress/strain analyses have been performed on the brick/ mortar composites to generate stress/strain curves. Modulus of elasticity and Poisson's ratio of the composite may be calculated from the stress/strain curves, in order to provide more representative data to finite element mechanical models for accurate approximation of stress on the tank shell and the amount of thermal expansion expected within the tank liner.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗