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At least 469 records · Page 26

Accuracy Assessment of Response Surface Approximations for Supersonic Turbine Design

There is a growing trend to employ CFD tools to supply the necessary information for design optimization of fluid dynamics components/systems. Such results are prone to uncertainties due to reasons including discretization. errors, incomplete convergence of computational procedures, and errors associated with physical models such as turbulence closures. Based on this type of information, gradient-based optimization algorithms often suffer from the noisy calculations, which can seriously compromise the outcome. Similar problems arise from the experimental measurements. Global optimization techniques, such as those based on the response surface (RS) concept are becoming popular in part because they can overcome some of these barriers. However, there are also fundamental issues related to such global optimization technique such as RS. For example, in high dimensional design spaces, typically only a small number of function evaluations are available due to computational and experimental costs. On the other hand, complex features of the design variables do not allow one to model the global characteristics of the design space with simple quadratic polynomials. Consequently a main challenge is to reduce the size of the region where we fit the RS, or make it more accurate in the regions where the optimum is likely to reside. Response Surface techniques using either polynomials or and Neural Network (NN) methods offer designers alternatives to conduct design optimization. The RS technique employs statistical and numerical techniques to establish the relationship between design variables and objective/constraint functions, typically using polynomials. In this study, we aim at addressing issues related to the following questions: (1) How to identify outliers associated with a given RS representation and improve the RS model via appropriate treatments? (2) How to focus on selected design data so that RS can give better performance in regions critical to design optimization? (3) How to combine NN and polynomial techniques for improving the accuracy of the RS model?

Papila, Nilay↗

Reference Cell Performance and Modeling on a One-Axis Tracking Surface: Preprint

Performance of five silicon-based reference cells is examined on a single-axis tracking surface. The reference cells' output are modeled using one-minute sampled spectral irradiance and reference cell temperature measurements. The model also incorporates spectral responsivity data for the reference cell. The transmission of light through the glazing multiplies the sum over all appropriate wavelengths of temperature adjusted reference cell responsivity times the measured spectral irradiance. Modeled reference cell output is compared with measured reference cell output under clear sky and totally cloudy sky conditions. For each reference cell the ratio of modeled to measured output varies by less than 2% over the year.

modeling↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud-atmosphere impacts on the central Arctic surface energy budget (Final Report)

This project investigated how clouds and atmosphere-sea ice interactions shape the central Arctic surface energy budget using observations from the MOSAiC expedition and coordinated model experiments. Analyses focused on three themes. First, a new method applied to thermistor string data revealed that snow thermal conductivity is systematically higher than assumed in most models, strongly influencing conductive heat flux and sea ice growth, especially under clear skies. Second, a full annual cycle of surface energy budget observations, combined with detailed cloud microphysical retrievals, demonstrated how cloud regimes regulate radiative, turbulent, and conductive fluxes, driving seasonal contrasts in sea ice energy balance: in winter, radiative forcing elicits strong turbulent and conductive responses, while in summer excess energy is primarily partitioned into surface melt. Third, these observations were used to evaluate and improve regional and global forecast models. While some models captured key Arctic cloud-radiation states, most exhibited persistent deficiencies in representing liquid-containing clouds, snow-on-sea-ice processes, and flux responses to radiative forcing. Together, these results provide unprecedented benchmarks for understanding coupled Arctic processes, improve parameterizations of snow, sea ice, and cloud interactions, and highlight critical pathways by which atmospheric variability drives sea ice change in a rapidly evolving Arctic system. Lastly, the project was a resounding success, resulting in 38 peer-reviewed publications and dozens of presentations, while also supporting an early career scientist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

InP shallow-homojunction solar cells

Indium phosphide solar cells with very thin n-type emitters have been made by both ion implantation and metalorganic chemical vapor deposition. Air mass zero efficiencies as high as 18.8 percent (NASA measurement) have been achieved. Although calculations show that, as is the case with GaAs, a heterostructure is expected to be required for the highest efficiencies attainable, the material properties of InP give the shallow-homojunction structure a greater potential than in the case of GaAs. The best cells, which were those made by ion implantation, show open-circuit voltage (V sub oc) of 873 mV, short-circuit current of 357 A/sq m (35.7 mA/sq cm), and fill factor of 0.829. Improvements are anticipated in all three of these parameters. Internal quantum efficiency peaks at over 90 percent in the red end of the spectrum, but drops to 54 percent in the blue end. Other cells have achieved 74 percent in the blue end. Detailed modeling of the data indicates that a high front surface recombination velocity is responsible for the low blue response, that the carrier lifetime is high enough to allow good carrier collection from both the base and the emitter, and that the voltage is base-limited.

Keavney, Christopher↗

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Sui, C. H.↗

The Aggregate Description of Semi-Arid Vegetation with Precipitation-Generated Soil Moisture Heterogeneity

Meteorological measurements in the Walnut Gulch catchment in Arizona were used to synthesize a distributed, hourly-average time series of data across a 26.9 by 12.5 km area with a grid resolution of 480 m for a continuous 18-month period which included two seasons of monsoonal rainfall. Coupled surface-atmosphere model runs established the acceptability (for modelling purposes) of assuming uniformity in all meteorological variables other than rainfall. Rainfall was interpolated onto the grid from an array of 82 recording rain gauges. These meteorological data were used as forcing variables for an equivalent array of stand-alone Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) models to describe the evolution of soil moisture and surface energy fluxes in response to the prevalent, heterogeneous pattern of convective precipitation. The calculated area-average behaviour was compared with that given by a single aggregate BATS simulation forced with area-average meteorological data. Heterogeneous rainfall gives rise to significant but partly compensating differences in the transpiration and the intercepted rainfall components of total evaporation during rain storms. However, the calculated area-average surface energy fluxes given by the two simulations in rain-free conditions with strong heterogeneity in soil moisture were always close to identical, a result which is independent of whether default or site-specific vegetation and soil parameters were used. Because the spatial variability in soil moisture throughout the catchment has the same order of magnitude as the amount of rain failing in a typical convective storm (commonly 10% of the vegetation's root zone saturation) in a semi-arid environment, non-linearitv in the relationship between transpiration and the soil moisture available to the vegetation has limited influence on area-average surface fluxes.

White, Cary B.↗

Validation of a Solid Rocket Motor Internal Environment Model

In a prior effort, a thermal/fluid model of the interior of Penn State University's laboratory-scale Insulation Test Motor (ITM) was constructed to predict both the convective and radiative heat transfer to the interior walls of the ITM with a minimum of empiricism. These predictions were then compared to values of total and radiative heat flux measured in a previous series of ITM test firings to assess the capabilities and shortcomings of the chosen modeling approach. Though the calculated fluxes reasonably agreed with those measured during testing, this exercise revealed means of improving the fidelity of the model to, in the case of the thermal radiation, enable direct comparison of the measured and calculated fluxes and, for the total heat flux, compute a value indicative of the average measured condition. By replacing the P1-Approximation with the discrete ordinates (DO) model for the solution of the gray radiative transfer equation, the radiation intensity field in the optically thin region near the radiometer is accurately estimated, allowing the thermal radiation flux to be calculated on the heat-flux sensor itself, which was then compared directly to the measured values. Though the fully coupling the wall thermal response with the flow model was not attempted due to the excessive computational time required, a separate wall thermal response model was used to better estimate the average temperature of the graphite surfaces upstream of the heat flux gauges and improve the accuracy of both the total and radiative heat flux computations. The success of this modeling approach increases confidence in the ability of state-of-the-art thermal and fluid modeling to accurately predict SRM internal environments, offers corrections to older methods, and supplies a tool for further studies of the dynamics of SRM interiors.

Martin, Heath T.↗

Validation of a Solid Rocket Motor Internal Environment Model

In a prior effort, a thermal/fluid model of the interior of Penn State University's laboratory-scale Insulation Test Motor (ITM) was constructed to predict both the convective and radiative heat transfer to the interior walls of the ITM with a minimum of empiricism. These predictions were then compared to values of total and radiative heat flux measured in a previous series of ITM test firings to assess the capabilities and shortcomings of the chosen modeling approach. Though the calculated fluxes reasonably agreed with those measured during testing, this exercise revealed means of improving the fidelity of the model to, in the case of the thermal radiation, enable direct comparison of the measured and calculated fluxes and, for the total heat flux, compute a value indicative of the average measured condition. By replacing the P1-Approximation with the discrete ordinates (DO) model for the solution of the gray radiative transfer equation, the radiation intensity field in the optically thin region near the radiometer is accurately estimated, allowing the thermal radiation flux to be calculated on the heat-flux sensor itself, which was then compared directly to the measured values. Though the fully coupling the wall thermal response with the flow model was not attempted due to the excessive computational time required, a separate wall thermal response model was used to better estimate the average temperature of the graphite surfaces upstream of the heat flux gauges and improve the accuracy of both the total and radiative heat flux computations. The success of this modeling approach increases confidence in the ability of state-of-the-art thermal and fluid modeling to accurately predict SRM internal environments, offers corrections to older methods, and supplies a tool for further studies of the dynamics of SRM interiors.

Martin, Heath T.↗

Modeling light and temperature effects on leaf emergence in wheat and barley

Phenological development affects canopy structure, radiation interception, and dry matter production; most crop simulation models therefore incorporate leaf emergence rate as a basic parameter. A recent study examined leaf emergence rate as a function of temperature and daylength among wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivars. Leaf emergence rate and phyllochron were modeled as functions of temperature alone, daylength alone, and the interaction between temperature and daylength. The resulting equations contained an unwieldy number of constants. Here we simplify by reducing the constants by > 70%, and show leaf emergence rate as a single response surface with temperature and daylength. In addition, we incorporate the effect of photosynthetic photon flux into the model. Generic fits for wheat and barley show cultivar differences less than +/- 5% for wheat and less than +/- 10% for barley. Barley is more sensitive to daylength changes than wheat for common environmental values of daylength, which may be related to the difference in sensitivity to daylength between spring and winter cultivars. Differences in leaf emergence rate between cultivars can be incorporated into the model by means of a single, nondimensional factor for each cultivar.

NASA Discipline Number 61-10↗

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evapotranspiration and runoff from large land areas: Land surface hydrology for atmospheric general circulation models

A land surface hydrology parameterization for use in atmospheric GCM's is presented. The parameterization incorporates subgrid scale variability in topography, soils, soil moisture and precipitation. The framework of the model is the statistical distribution of a topography-soils index, which controls the local water balance fluxes, and is therefore taken to represent the large land area. Spatially variable water balance fluxes are integrated with respect to the topography-soils index to yield our large topography-soils distribution, and interval responses are weighted by the probability of occurrence of the interval. Grid square averaged land surface fluxes result. The model functions independently as a macroscale water balance model. Runoff ratio and evapotranspiration efficiency parameterizations are derived and are shown to depend on the spatial variability of the above mentioned properties and processes, as well as the dynamics of land surface-atmosphere interactions.

Famiglietti, J. S.↗

Extracting scene feature vectors through modeling, volume 3

The remote estimation of the leaf area index of winter wheat at Finney County, Kansas was studied. The procedure developed consists of three activities: (1) field measurements; (2) model simulations; and (3) response classifications. The first activity is designed to identify model input parameters and develop a model evaluation data set. A stochastic plant canopy reflectance model is employed to simulate reflectance in the LANDSAT bands as a function of leaf area index for two phenological stages. An atmospheric model is used to translate these surface reflectances into simulated satellite radiance. A divergence classifier determines the relative similarity between model derived spectral responses and those of areas with unknown leaf area index. The unknown areas are assigned the index associated with the closest model response. This research demonstrated that the SRVC canopy reflectance model is appropriate for wheat scenes and that broad categories of leaf area index can be inferred from the procedure developed.

Berry, J. K.↗

MEDLI2 Material Response Model Development and Validation

During the entry of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) the heatshield was equipped with the instrumentation suite Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instruments (MEDLI). In-depth thermocouple (TC) data was used to reconstruct the surface heating and temperatures. Discrepancies between MEDLI’s recorded in-depth heating data and the predicted thermal response and recession led to a campaign to characterize and test Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument 2 (MEDLI2) flight lot thermal protection materials (TPS) at relevant temperatures and pressures for Martian entry conditions. This paper covers the development and validation of MEDLI2 flight lot material response models for the heatshield material Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and the backshell material Super-Lightweight Ablator (SLA-561V). Virgin and char thermal conductivities were updated as a function of temperature and pressure in the MEDLI2 specific material response models. Other material properties such as virgin and char density, emissivity, absorptivity, and specific heat capacitance was also characterized and compared to the “Heritage” models used during the TPS design phase of Mars 2020. Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) simulations were completed using the Heritage and MEDLI2 material response models to provide evidence of the increased accuracy of the MEDLI2 model. FIAT predicted in-depth temperatures were compared to flight lot certification ground-test arc jet test data and MEDLI2 flight thermocouple data.

Material response↗

FLARE: field line analysis and reconstruction for 3D boundary plasma modeling

The FLARE code is a magnetic mesh generator that is integrated within a suite of tools for the analysis of the magnetic geometry in toroidal fusion devices. A magnetic mesh is constructed from field line segments and permits fast reconstruction of field lines in 3D boundary plasma codes such as EMC3-EIRENE. Both intrinsically non-axisymmetric configurations (stellarators) and those with symmetry breaking perturbations of an axisymmetric equilibrium (tokamaks) are supported. The code itself is written in Modern Fortran with MPI support for parallel computing, and it incorporates object-oriented programming for the definition of the magnetic field and the material surface geometry. Extended derived types for a number of different magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and plasma response models are implemented. The core element of FLARE is a field line tracer with adaptive step-size control, and this is integrated into tools for the construction of Poincaré maps and invariant manifolds of X-points. A collection of high-level procedures that generate output files for visualization is build on top of that. The analysis modules are build with Python frontends that facilitate customization of tasks and/or scripting of parameter scans.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Monitoring tropical vegetation succession with LANDSAT data

The shadowing problem, which is endemic to the use of LANDSAT in tropical areas, and the ability to model changes over space and through time are problems to be addressed when monitoring tropical vegetation succession. Application of a trend surface analysis model to major land cover classes in a mountainous region of the Phillipines shows that the spatial modeling of radiance values can provide a useful approach to tropical rain forest succession monitoring. Results indicate shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral responses. These variations can be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data. Using the model to estimate both elevation and spectral terrain surface as a posteriori inputs in the classification process leads to improved classification accuracy for vegetation of cover of this type. Spatial patterns depicted by the MSS data reflect the measurement of responses to spatial processes acting at several scales.

Robinson, V. B.↗

Practical CO2—WAG Field Operational Designs Using Hybrid Numerical-Machine-Learning Approaches

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO2-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Tangle-Free Mesh Motion for Ablation Simulations

Problems involving mesh motion-which should not be mistakenly associated with moving mesh methods, a class of adaptive mesh redistribution techniques-are of critical importance in numerical simulations of the thermal response of melting and ablative materials. Ablation is the process by which material vaporizes or otherwise erodes due to strong heating. Accurate modeling of such materials is of the utmost importance in design of passive thermal protection systems ("heatshields") for spacecraft, the layer of the vehicle that ensures survival of crew and craft during re-entry. In an explicit mesh motion approach, a complete thermal solve is first performed. Afterwards, the thermal response is used to determine surface recession rates. These values are then used to generate boundary conditions for an a posteriori correction designed to update the location of the mesh nodes. Most often, linear elastic or biharmonic equations are used to model this material response, traditionally in a finite element framework so that complex geometries can be simulated. A simple scheme for moving the boundary nodes involves receding along the surface normals. However, for all but the simplest problem geometries, evolution in time following such a scheme will eventually bring the mesh to intersect and "tangle" with itself, inducing failure. This presentation demonstrates a comprehensive and sophisticated scheme that analyzes the local geometry of each node with help from user-provided clues to eliminate the tangle and enable simulations on a wide-class of difficult problem geometries. The method developed is demonstrated for linear elastic equations but is general enough that it may be adapted to other modeling equations. The presentation will explicate the inner workings of the tangle-free mesh motion algorithm for both two and three-dimensional meshes. It will show abstract examples of the method's success, including a verification problem that demonstrates its accuracy and correctness. The focus of the presentation will be on the algorithm; specifics on how the techniques may be used in spacecraft design will be not discussed.

Droba, Justin↗