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At least 469 records · Page 26

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Simple Wins: Driving Effective Implementation of Energy Efficiency Projects

Small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) in the United States, making up over 98% of manufacturing firms, account for 48.3% of the sector’s energy consumption. Despite access to energy assessments and technical resources, such as those from the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants program and Industrial Training and Assessment Centers, implementation rates for identified energy-saving measures remain lower than expectations, averaging 47%. Some barriers were identified by other researchers as limited workforce capacity, inadequate training, and time constraints hinder progress. This article studied the development of customized checklists together with the energy assessment report as a practical solution to improve implementation rates for energy efficiency projects among SMMs. The framework for the checklists was grounded in five principles: short, precise, actionable, relevant, and codeveloped (SPARC). A case study of a 500,000-squarefoot SMM demonstrates how tailored checklists targeting significant energy users—such as heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), lighting, and compressed air systems for this facility—can simplify the process for staff to do facility walkthroughs to monitor best practices and track the progress of energy efficiency project implementation.

Guo, Wei [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oa↗

Asteroid Return Mission Feasibility Study

This paper describes an investigation into the technological feasibility of finding, characterizing, robotically capturing, and returning an entire Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) to the International Space Station (ISS) for scientific investigation, evaluation of its resource potential, determination of its internal structure and other aspects important for planetary defense activities, and to serve as a testbed for human operations in the vicinity of an asteroid. Reasonable projections suggest that several dozen candidates NEAs in the size range of interest (approximately 2-m diameter) will be known before the end of the decade from which a suitable target could be selected. The conceptual mission objective is to return an approximately 10,000-kg asteroid to the ISS in a total flight time of approximately 5 years using a single Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle. Preliminary calculations indicate that this could be accomplished using a solar electric propulsion (SEP) system with high-power Hall thrusters and a maximum power into the propulsion system of approximately 40 kW. The SEP system would be used to provide all of the post-launch delta V. The asteroid would have an unrestricted Earth return Planetary Protection categorization, and would be curated at the ISS where numerous scientific and resource utilization experiments would be conducted. Asteroid material brought to the ground would be curated at the NASA Johnson Space Center. This preliminary study identified several areas where additional work is required, but no show stoppers were identified for the approach that would return an entire 10,000-kg asteroid to the ISS in a mission that could be launched by the end of this decade.

near Earth asteriods (NEA)↗

Reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization of magnesium hydroxide to produce hydromagnesite with inherent solvent regeneration

Valorization of multiple low value streams including CO 2 emissions and magnesium-hydroxide bearing mine tailings to produce magnesium carbonate through reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization provides a less explored opportunity to manage several gigatons of CO 2 emissions. To resolve the feasibility of converting magnesium hydroxide to magnesium carbonate through reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization, CO 2 capture solvents such as sodium glycinate are harnessed to capture CO 2 and react directly with Mg(OH) 2 to produce hydromagnesite (Mg 5 [(CO 3 )4(OH) 2 ]·4H 2 O). This approach eliminates the energy-intensive step of producing high purity CO 2 associated with regenerating the solvent, and redissolving CO 2 to produce magnesium carbonate. Interestingly, while temperatures below 50 °C facilitate CO 2 capture, the mineralization kinetics are slow. However, at higher temperatures, accelerated carbon mineralization is favored by the faster kinetics of Mg(OH) 2 dissolution and precipitation of magnesium carbonate. Reacting Mg(OH) 2 at 90 °C with 15 wt% solids in the presence of 2.5 M sodium glycinate after 3 hours under well-stirred conditions results in an extent of carbon mineralization of 75.5%. The theoretical maximum extent of carbon mineralization when hydromagnesite is formed is 80%. Pre-loading CO 2 on the solvent is also an effective approach to ensure that sufficient CO2 is available for reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization, particularly when dilute CO 2 and N 2 mixtures are used. Higher extents of carbon mineralization are associated with an increase in the particle size and a reduction in the cumulative pore volume. These insights unlock the feasibility of harnessing reactive CO 2 capture and mineralization as a pathway to convert magnesium-hydroxide bearing resources into industrially relevant magnesium carbonate products.

Reactive CO2↗

Scalable quantum simulations of scattering in scalar field theory on 120 qubits

Simulations of collisions of fundamental particles on a quantum computer are expected to have an exponential advantage over classical methods and promise to enhance searches for new physics. Furthermore, scattering in scalar field theory has been shown to be bounded-error quantum polynomial time (BQP) complete, making it a representative problem for which quantum computation is efficient. As a step toward large-scale quantum simulations of collision processes, scattering of wave packets in one-dimensional scalar field theory is simulated using 120 qubits of IBM’s Heron superconducting quantum computer ibm_fez. Variational circuits compressing vacuum preparation, wave packet initialization, and time evolution are determined using classical resources. By leveraging physical properties of states in the theory, such as symmetries and locality, the variational quantum algorithm constructs scalable circuits that can be used to simulate arbitrarily large system sizes. A new strategy is introduced to mitigate errors in quantum simulations, which enables the extraction of meaningful results from circuits with up to 4924 two-qubit gates and two-qubit gate depths of 103. The effect of interactions is clearly seen, and is found to be in agreement with classical matrix product state simulations. Finally, the developments that will be necessary to simulate high-energy inelastic collisions on a quantum computer are discussed.

quantum circuits↗

Road Lidar Dataset for the TxDOT Austin District

This is a road lidar data collection for developing road elevation models and road inundation mapping methodologies, a joint work between ORNL and The University of Texas at Austin. This dataset is generated as part of the flood transportation infrastructure, partly funded by the NOAA CIROH project. ORNL is a project partner for high-performance computing-empowered flood inundation mapping methodology R&D. The dataset is computed using a GPU-accelerated lidar data processing workflow developed at ORNL. The lidar data source is from TxGIO, the state lidar data collection site. The output dataset is in two formats: laz and copc. It is organized by TxDOT's maintenance sections, covering the Austin District. Data size: 3.86 billion road lidar points, 1.67% of the entire lidar data input Projection: EPSG:32614 (WGS84/UTM zone 14N) Website: https://web.corral.tacc.utexas.edu/nfiedata/road3d/austin_district/AustinMaintenanceSections_H_epsg6343_V_epsg5703/ LICENSE FOR USE -- MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described or information contained on this map or associated series of maps. The data and related map graphics are not legal, land survey or engineering documents and are not intended to be used as such. ORNL gives no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, utility or completeness of this information. The user of these maps and data assumes all responsibility and risk for the use of the maps and data. ORNL disclaims all warranties, representations or endorsements either express or implied, with regard to the information contained in this map product, including, but not limited to, all implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. This preliminary map product is for research and review purposes only. It is not intended to be used for emergency management operational or life safety decisions at the local or regional governmental level or by the general public. Users requiring information regarding hazardous conditions or meteorological conditions for specific geographic areas should consult directly with their city or county emergency management office.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A path integral ground state Monte Carlo algorithm for entanglement of lattice bosons

A ground state path integral quantum Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced that allows for the study of entanglement in lattice bosons at zero temperature. The Rényi entanglement entropy between spatial subregions is explored across the phase diagram of the one dimensional Bose-Hubbard model for systems consisting of up to L=256 L = 256 sites at unit-filling without any restrictions on site occupancy, far beyond the reach of exact diagonalization. The favorable scaling of the algorithm is demonstrated through a further measurement of the Rényi entanglement entropy at the two dimensional superfluid-insulator critical point for large system sizes, confirming the existence of the expected entanglement boundary law in the ground state. The Rényi estimator is extended to measure the symmetry resolved entanglement that is operationally accessible as a resource for experimentally relevant lattice gases with fixed total particle number.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Overview of the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) System

This report provides an overview on the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) system which characterized 57 geologic saline formations targeted for geologic carbon storage across the lower-48 U.S. states using publicly available resources. The GEESS system consists of high spatial resolution datasets (up to 5 km grid spacing) that provide key geologic parameters (e.g., depth, thickness, permeability), and estimates of CO 2 plume size and CO 2 first-year break-even price that were determined by exercising GEESS data through the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). The GEESS geodatabase is available on NETL’s EDX at GEESS Geodatabase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A globally sampled high-resolution hand-labeled validation dataset for evaluating surface water extent maps

Effective monitoring of global water resources is increasingly critical due to climate change and population growth. Advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically in spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, are revolutionizing water resource monitoring, leading to more frequent and high-quality surface water extent maps using various techniques such as traditional image processing and machine learning algorithms. However, satellite imagery datasets contain trade-offs that result in inconsistencies in performance, such as disparities in measurement principles between optical (e.g., Sentinel-2) and radar (e.g., Sentinel-1) sensors and differences in spatial and spectral resolutions among optical sensors. Therefore, developing accurate and robust surface water mapping solutions requires independent validations from multiple datasets to identify potential biases within the imagery and algorithms. However, high-quality validation datasets are expensive to build, and few contain information on water resources. For this purpose, we introduce a globally sampled, high-spatial-resolution dataset labeled using 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Our surface water extent dataset comprises 100 images, each with a size of 1024×1024 pixels, which were sampled using a stratified random sampling strategy covering all 14 biomes. We highlighted urban and rural regions, lakes, and rivers, including braided rivers and coastal regions. We evaluated two surface water extent mapping methods using our dataset – Dynamic World, based on Sentinel-2, and the NASA IMPACT model, based on Sentinel-1. Dynamic World achieved a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 72.16 % and F1 score of 79.70 %, while the NASA IMPACT model had a mean IoU of 57.61 % and F1 score of 65.79 %. Performance varied substantially across biomes, highlighting the importance of evaluating models on diverse landscapes to assess their generalizability and robustness. Our dataset can be used to analyze satellite products and methods, providing insights into their advantages and drawbacks. Our dataset offers a unique tool for analyzing satellite products, aiding the development of more accurate and robust surface water monitoring solutions. The dataset can be accessed via https://doi.org/10.25739/03nt-4f29.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laser Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry for Space

A miniature reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer for in situ planetary surface analysis is described. The laser ablation mass spectrometer (LAMS) measures the regolith's elemental and isotopic composition without high-voltage source extraction or sample preparation. The compact size (< 2 x 10(exp 3) cubic cm) and low mass (approximately 2 kg) of LAMS, due to its fully coaxial design and two-stage reflectron, fall within the strict resource limitations of landed science missions to solar system bodies. A short-pulse laser focused to a spot with a diameter approximately 30-50 micrometers is used to obtain microscopic surface samples. Assisted by a microimager, LAMS can interactively select and analyze a range of compositional regions (with lateral motion) and with repeated pulses can access unweathered, subsurface materials. The mass resolution is calibrated to distinguish isotopic peaks at unit masses, and detection limits are on resolved to a few ppm. The design and calibration method of a prototype LAMS device is described, which include the development of preliminary relative sensitivity coefficients for major element bulk abundance measurements.

Brinckerhoff, W. B.↗

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System:

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. Additional supporting analyses were conducted to illuminate vehicle sizing and orbital transportation issues. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists. Additional aerospacecraft or other aerial vehicles (UAVs, balloons, rockets, etc.) could fly through the outer planet atmospheres, for global weather observations, localized storm or other disturbance investigations, wind speed measurements, polar observations, etc. Deep-diving aircraft (built with the strength to withstand many atmospheres of pressure) powered by the excess hydrogen or helium 4 may be designed to probe the higher density regions of the gas giants. Outer planet atmospheric properties, atmospheric storm data, and mission planning for future outer planet UAVs are presented.

planetary exploration↗

Characterization of LANDSAT-4 TM and MSS Image Quality for the Interpretation of California's Agricultural Resources

The quality of LANDSAT-4 MSS and TM data was determined by analyzing TM spectral and spatial performance in terms of spectral variability of natural targets and the TM-ground instantaneous field-of-view (IFOV) variability in level and mountainous terrain; and by assessing the suitability of TM and MSS image products for characterizing renewable resourse features. The TM data should be extremelly valuable for crop type and area proportion estimation; undating agricultural land use survey maps at 1:24,000 scale and smaller, field boundary definition; and determining the size and location of individual farmsteads. Ongoing research activities are focused on making spectral and spatial analyses of both MSS and TM analytical film products. The improved spectral, spatial, and radiometric quality of the TM data, should promote a renewed emphasis and interest in direct visual interpretation of these image products, both for updating and improving land stratification in support of resource inventory and for enhancing the image analyst's contribution to computer-assisted analysis procedures.

Degloria, S. D.↗

Applicability of ERTS for surveying Antarctic iceberg resources

The author has identified the following significant results. Recognition and interpretation of icebergs proves to be easy when they are locked in sea or fast ice. They stand out in relief, particularly well in band 7. Recongition of isolated icebergs is much more difficult. Size, shape, interaction with sea ice, and change over time must then be used to help in positive identification. There seems to be much less current and relative motion between icebergs and sea in much of the test sector than had been believed from avialable exploration information. However, most of this type of assessment must await the accumulation and analysis of the full season data.

Hult, J. L.↗

Inferred Variable FeO Content in Medium-sized Lunar Pyroclastic Deposits from LRO Diviner Data

Lunar pyroclastic deposits (LPDs) are low albedo features that mantle underlying terrain (Gaddis et al. 1985). They are high priority targets for science and exploration as they are believed to originate from and therefore reflect the composition of the deep lunar interior (NRC, 2011). They are also the best potential resource of oxygen out of any Apollo samples (Allen et al. 1996). Historically, LPDs have been divided into regional versus local categories (Gaddis et al. 2003). The large (>1000 km2 area) regional deposits are deeply sourced (>400 km deep) and result from fire fountaining. Small (<1000 km2) local deposits are thought to result from Vulcanian eruptions in which magma is slowly emplaced beneath the surface until enough volatiles exsolve and the high pressure causes an explosion. Bennett et al. (2013) identified a local deposit (674 km2 area) that may have resulted from both Vulcanian activity and fire fountaining. This deposit potentially represents a new intermediate class of LPDs that straddles the interface between the two formation mechanisms. The deposit also exhibits the highest inferred FeO wt.% of any known lunar glass. In this work we investigate the inferred FeO abundances of other medium-sized deposits to characterize this potential new class of deposits and understand the magnitude of variations in inferred FeO among pyroclastic deposits. We use the method of Greenhagen et al. (2010) to calculate the wavelength of the Christiansen Feature (CF) from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Diviner Lunar Radiometer instrument thermal-infrared observations for four medium-sized deposits. From the CF values, we estimate each deposit's FeO abundance using the method of Allen et al. (2012). The four LPDs that we examined (Oppenheimer South, Beer, Cleomedes, and J. Herschel) all have average CF values from 8.22-8.28 microns, corresponding to FeO abundances of approx. 10-15 wt.%. All of these values are within the range and uncertainties of FeO abundances measured in Apollo samples. As previously identified, the Oppenheimer South deposit exhibits an area of enhanced CF values (8.49 microns) that, if the methods of Allen et al. (2012) can be extrapolated, correspond to a highest observed approx. 30 wt.% FeO. Moon Mineralogy Mapper near-infrared spectra indicate that this area is glass-rich as opposed to olivine-rich. While we are still investigating the nature of the high CF wavelength in Oppenheimer South, spatially-resolved observations there and (to a smaller degree) in our other study sites, shows that FeO wt.% can vary within LPDs. Thus, obtaining only the average FeO abundance over a large area may not be adequate to understand global variation. The magnitude of Oppenheimer South's CF variability, if due to actual surface variations rather than calibration artifacts or spectral mixing, could indicate that it is a unique deposit and not part of a new mid-sized class of deposits. The higher value could be a result of its location within the South Pole Aitken Basin and exsolution of more deeply sourced magma due to the thin crust there.

Bennett, K. A.↗

The Prospects for Pumped Storage Hydropower in Alaska

Key Takeaways: The resource mapping analysis confirmed that numerous locations in Alaska are suitable for the development of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) projects, both larger grid scale projects and smaller projects that could be suitable for remote communities; The resource assessment for larger, grid-scale projects showed the potential for more than 1,800 closed-loop systems in Alaska, with a total energy storage capacity of about 4 terawatt hours (TWh); Because of their small reservoir sizes and dam heights, many locations were identified as potentially suitable for small-scale PSH systems. Nearly 50% of the identified potentially suitable small-scale PSH sites are in Southeast Alaska; PSH candidate sites were part of the optimal capacity expansion solution in all scenarios analyzed for the Railbelt system. Depending on the scenario, the new PSH capacity that the model selected for the analysis period until 2046 ranged from 300 MW to 600 MW. The locations and timing of new PSH investments vary in different scenarios; Lithium-ion batteries were also selected a source of new generating capacity in all analyzed scenarios for the Railbelt system, indicating that the system will need a mix of short- and long-duration energy storage to support variable renewable energy sources and provide system reliability in the future; For rural communities, analysis results showed that PSH suitability is very site-specific; in addition to diesel fuel costs and PSH capital costs, suitability depends heavily on available renewable resources and existing infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs, transmission access and construction road access); The analysis for rural communities also showed that PSH projects with 10-hour energy storage are likely to be more economical for remote community applications in Alaska than those with larger reservoirs that could provide 10 days of energy storage; Lithium-ion batteries seem to be an economically more viable energy storage option for small, remote communities in Alaska.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Room to Live: the sizing of Lunar and Martian Habitats

In order for man to return to space or extra terrestrial bodies for long duration missions it is important that adequate habitat volume be defined early to avoid costly delays and redesign. To properly define a habitat volume two major factors need to be considered. The first factor is the free or open space. This is the space that allows the crew room to move about the habitat. This space will vary based on crew size and length of the mission. The second major factor is the stowage space required for equipment and supplies. This includes both fixed volumes and consumables. Fixed volumes include items such as tools, communication equipment, Advanced Life Support (ALS) equipment, and support equipment. Consumables include items like filters, food, water and oxygen. This space is also dependent on crew size and mission length. A review of past missions into alien environments, such as deep sea habitats as well as space based habitats will be used to validate the assumption made in this paper. Once these key factors are defined trades must be run to optimize the overall volume of a habitat. This includes trades of disposable vs. reusable for items such as clothing, dishes, and water. Another factor to consider is the availability of in situ resources to aid in the construction of the habitat structure as well as re-supply of consumable items. A review of past missions into alien environments, such as deep sea habitats as well as space based habitats will be used to validate the assumption made in this paper. The result is a habitat sizing tool to provide a first order estimate of habitat volumes for extended mission to the surface of the moon and Mars.

McGregor, Walter L.↗

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗