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At least 469 records · Page 26

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗

Simulating Fracture Sealing by Granular LCM Particles in Geothermal Drilling

Lost circulation occurs when the returned fluid is less than what is pumped into the well due to loss of fluid to pores or fractures. A lost-circulation event is a common occurrence in a geothermal well. Typical geothermal reservoirs are often under-pressured and have larger fracture apertures. A severe lost-circulation event is costly and may lead to stuck pipe, well instability, and well abandonment. One typical treatment is adding lost-circulation materials (LCMs) to seal fractures. Conventional LCMs fail to properly seal fractures because their mechanical limit is exceeded at elevated temperatures. In this paper, parametric studies in numerical simulations are conducted to better understand different thermal effects on the sealing mechanisms of LCMs. The computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and the discrete element method (DEM) are coupled to accurately capture the true physics of sealing by granular materials. Due to computational limits, the traditional Eulerian–Eulerian approach treats solid particles as a group of continuum matter. With the advance of modern computational power, particle bridging is achievable with DEM to track individual particles by modeling their interactive forces between each other. Particle–fluid interactions can be modeled by coupling CFD algorithms. Fracture sealing capability is investigated by studying the effect of four individual properties including fluid viscosity, particle size, friction coefficient, and Young’s modulus. It is found that thermally degraded properties lead to inefficient fracture sealing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Computing with a Chemical Reservoir

Contemporary computation is expensive, with large language models and artificial intelligence becoming more common in daily life. However, high-performance computing is reaching the limits in speed and energy expenditure, and domain science requires ever-increasing computational capacity, with simulations and data analysis pipelines ever-growing in complexity. As we progress towards post-exascale computation, with the associated high energy costs, new methods of energy-conscious computation are required. Novel analog and hybrid digital-analog systems can overcome these challenges, and chemical reactions offer a promising avenue. Computers based on chemistry can provide compact desktop devices with immense computational power. These devices are readily scalable by considering greater reaction systems or vessels, meeting the high-performance requirements for scientific workflows. In this article, we present ChemComp, a compilation pipeline for the conversion of ordinary differential equations into implementable chemical reactions. We then demonstrate the solving capabilities of ChemComp by emulating a potential chemical reservoir device. We leverage the multi-layer intermediate representation (MLIR) compiler framework to implement an expressive chemical reaction abstraction and propose a path for chemical reaction networks (CRNs) to represent mathematical problems effectively. Combined, we demonstrate a potential workflow that can harness chemistry’s computing power to create energy-efficient, high-performance computation systems for contemporary computing needs.

artificial intelligence↗

Numerical simulation of comet nuclei. I - Water-ice comets

A one-dimensional numerical model of pure water-ice cometary nuclei is presented, and the influence of the nuclear interior as a heat reservoir on the behavior of the nuclear surface is examined. It is shown that a number of effects, including the thermal inertia due to heat stored in the core and the release of latent heat, which goes entirely into heating the adjacent layers or into sublimation on passing through a phase transition from amorphous to crystalline ice, can help to explain such characteristics as the asymmetrical lightcurve of Comet Halley. Results are given for the cases of Comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 and Comet Encke. Consideration is also given to the insulating effect of an evolving dust mantle. The role of this mantle in determining the surface temperature of the ice core is studied as a function of the mass fraction of the dust in the ice-dust mixture and the thermal conductivity of the nucleus. The loose-lattice model of Mendis and Brin (1977) indicates that both high dust to ice ratios and high-core conductivities inhibit mantle blowoff.

Herman, G.↗

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗

Systems Improved Numerical Fluids Analysis Code

Systems Improved Numerical Fluids Analysis Code, SINFAC, consists of additional routines added to April, 1983, version of SINDA. Additional routines provide for mathematical modeling of active heat-transfer loops. Simulates steady-state and pseudo-transient operations of 16 different components of heat-transfer loops, including radiators, evaporators, condensers, mechanical pumps, reservoirs, and many types of valves and fittings. Program contains property-analysis routine used to compute thermodynamic properties of 20 different refrigerants. Source code written in FORTRAN 77.

Costello, F. A.↗

Some aspects of the interaction between chemical and dynamic processes relating to the Antarctic ozone hole

Observational and modeling studies have been conducted to examine the interaction between the chemical and dynamical processes that occur during springtime in the lower stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere. The temporal evolution of the ozone distribution and the circulation during 1987 is contrasted with that for 1988 as an illustrative example of how dynamical processes and the resulting meteorological conditions modulate the ozone depletion. Concurrently with the observational analysis, an effort was initiated to simulate the ozone depletion during austral spring using a 3D chemical/transport model. The model includes a parameterized representation of the heterogeneous processes thought to be important in this region. The simulation indicates that the inclusion of this additional chemistry, which results in the release of free chlorine and the redistribution of odd nitrogen into reservoir species, reproduces many aspects of the observations.

Eckman, R. S.↗

Diurnal Forcing of Planetary Atmospheres

Much progress has been made on calculations of the Martian seasonal water cycle using the Mars Climate Model developed for this purpose. Two papers, documenting the model and the water transport results obtained with it have been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets. An additional paper describing results related to the evolution of the seasonal water cycle as a result of orbital changes was published in Advances in Space Research. Since that time, further studies have concentrated on the consequences of the soil adsorption required to match the observed water cycle and its relation to the stability of ground ice and other potential water reservoirs. Earth-related studies have concentrated on incorporating an efficient and realistic microphysical model into the Ames Stratospheric General Circulation Model used to simulate the spread of the ML Pinatubo and other volcanic clouds in the stratosphere. In addition, visualizations of the simulations are being incorporated into a video describing the UARS mission. A paper describing the new stratospheric aerosol microphysics package (and its consequences for volcanic cloud evolution) will be submitted in the near future. The paper will discuss the relative importance of condensation and coagulation to early particle growth and the separation of the cloud by sedimentation of the larger particles. A more general paper which highlights the observation that particle number densities did not increase dramatically after the ML Pinatubo eruption is planned. Simulations of atmospheric transport will be extended to include studies of terrestrial tropospheric tracers using the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model.

Houben, Howard C.↗

Implications of rootless geothermal models: Missing processes, parameter compensation, and imposter convection

Numerical models of geothermal systems commonly capture only the top of a reservoir. Deeper areas of the reservoir are simplified to a boundary at the base of the model domain. Commonly, the basal boundary is given either a heat source or a source of mass and enthalpy. Here we developed and present simple numerical experiments which demonstrate that these approaches do not produce the correct model behavior in comparison to a model that captures the entire convecting domain with a heat flux only. We describe a variety of incorrect types of model behavior that arise directly from the choice of boundary condition, independent of the specific parameterization of the model. Heat sources are sensitive to the thickness of the domain and parameters take unphysical values to compensate for the reduced height. The combined mass/heat boundary can produce temperatures that show similarities to circulating geothermal systems, but with incorrect fluid flow and a strong boundary layer focused at the base of the simulated clay cap. These errors likely cause parameters to adjust their values to compensate for the incorrect physics. We highlight these issues and show an example from a developed reservoir model. Initial calibrations to natural state temperature were unsuitable for history matching. The 3D model required parameter adjustments to achieve a more realistic production model. Appropriate mitigation measures should be considered to reduce parameter compensation and improve decision-support models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A machine-learning inverse model framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs

Model-based optimization for real-time forecasting in unconventional reser-voirs requires novel methods and work?ows since the strategies and work?ows used in conventional reservoirs are either inapplicable, or prohibitively expen-sive and time-consuming. Insu?cient site data and computational expense of high-?delity simulations mean that work?ows with high-?delity simulations are not ideal for usage in comprehensive uncertainty quanti?cation stud-ies that require 1000s of forward model runs. We present an alternative, novel work?ow for unconventional reservoirs, based on the interplay between reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) work?ow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in uncoventionals, namely lack of data (the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and computational expense of high-?delity modeling. We use the machine-learning paradigm of transfer-learning to bind together fast but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-?delity models and circumvent the di?culties inherent in the current state-of-the-art for unconventionals. Such a PIML work?ow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir. The signi?cance of our approach is that while it is developed for a particu-lar well and site in the Marcelus Shale gas reservoir of the Appalachian basin (MSEEL), it is not wedded to it. We expect the same work?ow can be ap-plied to other shale formations (e.g., Woodford, Barnett, Utica, EagleFord) should site-data become available, using the same set of machine-learning techniques from transfer learning. Some ?ne-tuning (or minimal retraining of the neural networks) will be required to transfer knowledge across shale gas sites/formations but it is a clearly superior alternative to developing a new machine-learning model altogether when considering a di?erent site.

Srinivasan, Shriram↗

GC/MS Method Development for Separating Lunar Volatile Ice Simulant Headspace Gases

Various investigators propose the lunar surface contains widely distributed volatiles, especially water- like species, i.e. OH and H2O. Surface volatiles are theorized to exist as a hydrated regolith layer, concentrated in extremely cold polar permanently shadowed regions (PSR), and/or solar wind implantation reservoirs in lunar glasses. The proposed sources of lunar surface volatiles range from cometary impacts, solar wind, or a supply present during moon formation. Future Artemis missions aim to collect and return the samples containing volatiles collected near lunar polar craters or PSRs. We, as advanced curation scientists, are responsible for developing techniques and methodologies for preserving returned sample integrity as much as possible. Pristine volatile-bearing samples are invaluable to the scientific community seeking to unravel the history of the solar system. Realistically, a sample will experience alteration during collection, transportation back to earth, and storage. The Planetary Exploration and Astromaterials Research Lab (PEARL) seeks to understand temperature and pressure effects on high-fidelity volatile-containing regolith simulants, the foundation for the future of cold curation. This abstract outlines the separation, identification, and quantification of headspace gases over volatile ice feed stock material using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Preliminary objectives concentrated on sample handling, reproducibility, and understanding the elution characteristics for each analyte. Initial GC/MS method development experiments utilized diluted static headspace sample preparation. Diluted samples were used because sampling headspace gases directly from a vial containing liquid analyte resulted in overloading of the column and detector. Overloading is evident based on chromatogram peak shapes and instrument contamination, or carry over, between experiments. A mixture of three alcohols were used for a majority of the sample handling and reproducibility studies. Reproducibility was tested via multiple users, calibration curves, and check standards. Stock solutions of condensed lunar volatile analytes included methanol, ammonia in methanol, hydrogen sulfide in water, and an equal volume mixture of methanol, ethanol, and isopropanol. Current samples use room air as the headspace sample matrix, however future experiments will incorporate an inert purge gas, such as argon or nitrogen. Three mL of each analyte solution were capped in separate 20 mL crimp top GC vials. Dilutions were carried out by removing an aliquot of headspace gases with a calibrated 1 mL gastight syringe and immediately transferring to a 20 mL capped crimp top vial. The GC/MS is a Thermo Fisher Trace 1310/ISQ 7000 with a TriPlus RSH autosampler and split/splitless injector module. The experiments outlined in this abstract use the following hardware: a 2.5 mL gastight headspace syringe tool, 1 mm ID x 78.5 mm length ultra-inert straight injection liner, and a TG-BondQ 30 m × 0.32 mm × 10 μm column. Various parameters, such as hardware selection and the temperature, pressure, and split ratio set points, continue to evolve as the overall experiment is refined. Diluted headspace chromatograms were collected for the individual stock solutions. Retention times, peak shapes, and mass spectra were evaluated and added to the data processing method for each molecule of interest. Figure 1 shows the total ion chromatograms for the three major lunar volatile simulant stock solutions: methanol, 7 N ammonia in methanol, and 0.4% hydrogen sulfide in water. Tailing peak shapes for ammonia (2.98 min rt) and water (4.06 min rt) indicate the molecules are not properly eluting from the selected column with the current separation method. Additionally, hydrogen sulfide and ammonia have overlapping peak windows, which could impact quantification. Ongoing experiments aim to address the peak shape and overlapping via the separation method and hardware selection. Sample preparation reproducibility experiments used stock solution containing equal volumes of a non- interactive mixture of methanol, ethanol, and isopropanol. Mass spectrum ion traces were used to identify and quantify all three alcohols. Peaks were automatically detected, identified, and integrated through the mass spectra detection and processing parameters. Calibration response curves and check standards were used to evaluate the validity of the sample preparation procedure. Figure 2 shows the methanol chromatogram peak area versus total headspace dilution volume transferred from the alcohol mixture vial. The calibration response curves and check standards validate sample preparation procedure. Continuing data analysis efforts are working towards correlating the peak area and instrument response factor to the headspace analyte concentration and condensed phase composition. Static headspace gas chromatography theory relies on Dalton’s law, Raoult’s law, Henry’s Law, and the Kolb and Ettre equation to associate peak area to the analyte composition in a non-ideal solution. Equation 1 is a simplified expression derived from the aforementioned theories. Future experiments involve liquid injections of the individual stock solutions, liquid and headspace analysis of various stock solution combinations, and the addition of regolith simulants to the mixtures. Temperature is another variable expected to affect reaction rates and will be explored.

Cecilia L. Amick↗

Noble gas trapping by laboratory carbon condensates

Trapping of noble gases by carbon-rich matter was investigated by synthesizing carbon condensates in a noble gas atmosphere. Laser evaporation of a solid carbon target yielded submicron grains which proved to be efficient noble gas trappers (Xe distribution coefficients up to 13 cu cm STP/g-atm). The carbon condensates are better noble gas trappers than previously reported synthetic samples, except one, but coefficients inferred for meteoritic acid-residues are still orders of magnitude higher. The trapped noble gases are loosely bound and elementally strongly fractionated, but isotopic fractionations were not detected. Although this experiment does not simulate nebular conditions, the results support the evidence that carbon-rich phases in meteorites may be carriers of noble gases from early solar system reservoirs. The trapped elemental noble gas fractionations are remarkably similar to both those inferred for meteorites and those of planetary atmospheres for earth, Mars and Venus.

Niemeyer, S.↗

A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies

Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle.

Agrawal, Shubh [Pennsylvania U., Dept. Math.]↗

wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation

Hydropower is an important source of renewable energy in many parts of the world. The generation potential for a hydropower facility can vary greatly due to fluctuations in precipitation and snowmelt patterns impacting streamflow and reservoir storage. Human activities such as irrigation, manufacturing, and hydration can also influence water availability at nearby and downstream facilities. wmpy-power--the hydropower model described in this work--is process-based, leveraging explicit reservoir storage and release data to address impacts on hydropower from climate change and human adaptive behaviors to inform long-term planning and resource-adequacy considerations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands

The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impacts of Different Operation Conditions and Geological Formation Characteristics on CO2 Sequestration in Citronelle Dome, Alabama

Major concerns of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in subsurface formations are knowledge of the well injectivity and gas storage capacity of the formation, the CO2 pressure and saturation plume extensions during and after injection, and the risks associated with CO2 leakage and fault reactivation. Saline reservoirs are considered as one of the target formations for CO2 sequestration through structural, residual, dissolution, and mineral trapping mechanisms. The boundary condition of the saline reservoir dictates the pressure and saturation plume extension of the injected supercritical CO2 that could expand over large distances. This can lead to sources of risk, e.g., leakage and/or fault reactivation due to presence of wells, thief zones, and geological discontinuities. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a model that describes how risk-related performance metrics (i.e., the CO2 saturation plume size, the pressure differential plume area, and the pressure differential at specific locations) vary as a function of the size of injection, time following injection, injection operations, and geologic environment. In this study, a systematic reservoir modeling studies of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in Citronelle dome, Alabama, was performed where all relevant scenarios and conditions to address the questions of the saturation and pressure plume size in the area of review (AoR) and post-injection site care (PISC) are considered. The objective for this study was firstly to systematically simulate CO2 sequestration, i.e., saturation dynamics, and pressure behavior over a range of operational and geological conditions and to derive conclusions about the factors influencing saturation and pressure plume size, post-injection behavior, and the risk associated with them, by developing third-generation reduced order models (ROMs) for reservoir behavior. Finally, to assess the uncertainty associated with our studies, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) together with an experimental design technique, i.e., Plackett–Burman design, was used. Application of Pareto charts and respond surfaces enabled us to determine the most important parameters impacting saturation and pressure plume sizes and to quantify the auto- and cross-correlation among different parameters in both history-matched and upscaled models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach

Numerical simulations are essential to evaluate the performance and safety of engineered subsurface systems such as geological carbon storage sites, enhanced geothermal fields, and oil and gas reservoirs. A key challenge lies in accurately modeling the frictional contact behavior along fault surfaces. This problem involves inequality constraints that arise from the physics of frictional slip, requiring specialized numerical methods to handle the resulting highly nonlinear and path-dependent behavior. Here, in this work, we address this challenge using an Augmented Lagrangian Method (ALM) implemented via the Uzawa algorithm. The formulation employs mixed finite element spaces, combining low-order piecewise linear displacements within the 3D domain cells with piecewise constant tractions defined on the fault surfaces. Furthermore, to ensure stability and satisfy the inf-sup condition, the discrete displacement space is enriched with face bubble functions on both sides of the contact interfaces. This approach offers several advantages over other stabilization techniques that rely on additional terms, and it integrates naturally in the Uzawa framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗