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At least 469 records · Page 26

Reliability Barriers to Enhanced Solar PV Deployment: Selected Research Findings - State Outreach Policy Sessions

This presentation provides high-level summaries of three reports selected from a body of work that examines potential reliability challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations in the western United States. The three topics covered are 1) Power system flexibility requirements and supply; 2) Resource adequacy and the capacity credit of solar; 3) Simulating distributed energy resource responses to transmission system-level faults considering IEEE 1547 performance categories on three major WECC transmission paths. The full reports and related resources are available at the project website, https://www.westernenergyboard.org/western-interstate-energy-board/barrier-mitigation-to-enhanced-distributed-solar-photovoltaic/. This presentation is targeted toward policy decision makers. A companion technical presentation provides more in-depth summaries of the same material.

distributed energy resource↗

Ultrahigh performance LC/FT-MS non-targeted screening for biomass burning organic aerosol with MZmine2 and MFAssignR

In recent years, ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography Fourier transform mass spectrometry (LC/FT-MS) based non-targeted screening (NTS) methods have become increasingly popular for comprehensive analysis of complex organic mixtures. However, applying these methods for environmental complex mixture analysis is challenging due to the extreme complexity of natural samples and a lack of standard samples or surrogates for environmental complex mixtures. Furthermore, limited molecular markers in the databases and insufficient data processing software workflows make the application of these methods more challenging for environmental complex mixtures. In this work, we implement a new NTS data processing workflow to process data collected from ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography and Fourier transform Orbitrap Elite Mass Spectrometry (LC/FT-MS) by combining MZmine2 and MFAssignR, two opensource data processing tools and commercial Mesquite liquid smoke as a surrogate for biomass burning organic aerosol. MZmine2.53 data extraction followed MFAssignR molecular formula assignment offered noise free and highly accurate 1733 individual molecular formulas presented in liquid smoke with 4906 molecular species, including isomers. The results of this new approach were consistent with the results of direct infusion FT-MS analysis confirming its reliability. Over 90% of the molecular formulas presented in mesquite liquid smoke were matched with the molecular formulas of ambient biomass burning organic aerosol. This suggests the potential use of commercial liquid smoke as a surrogate for biomass burning organic aerosol research. Furthermore, the presented method significantly improves the identification of the molecular composition of biomass burning organic aerosol by successfully addressing some of the limitations related to the data analysis and giving a semi quantitative insight into the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preliminary Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of the UTA–2 Subcritical Linear Accelerator–Driven System

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s mission includes establishing a reliable supply of 99 Mo without highly enriched uranium. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) supports this objective through collaborative research and development with industrial partners. Niowave Inc., a current partner, is currently designing a subcritical linear accelerator-driven system (ADS) and preparing for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s licensing process. Niowave’s system has the potential to efficiently supply medical radioisotopes. The technology includes a superconducting electron accelerator and a pile of both natural and low-enriched uranium (LEU) targets. The process fissions uranium and many valuable isotopes can then be extracted from the targets. Niowave is currently iterating through conceptual and detailed design processes for several system sizes. This report discusses UTA–2, which is at the demonstration stage. UTA–2 will validate numerical modeling results with experimental measurements before progressing to the detailed design of UTA–3, the commercial-sized ADS. The thermal-hydraulic behavior of the UTA–2 core design was numerically investigated using STAR-CCM+, as described in this report. STAR-CCM+, a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that was commercially developed by Siemens, has an extensive user base and a set of validation studies. It is also compliant with the American Society of Mechanical Engineers’ Nuclear Quality Assurance 1 standard. Three cases are investigated in this report. Case 1 quantified the temperature field within the UTA–2 assembly and water tank using only conduction as the method of thermal energy transport. This simplified approach was overly conservative and yielded wetted cladding temperatures above the coolant saturation temperature. In this case, the maximum temperature of the wetted cladding surface of the highest power rod exceeded the saturation temperature of water by 63.8°C. Because of the overly conservative approach taken in Case 1 and its negative subcooled margin, buoyancy-driven natural circulation flow physics were implemented in Case 2. Adding coolant motion significantly distributed the thermal energy of the system through convective heat transfer. This relatively small amount of convective heat transfer significantly reduced system temperatures and increased the subcooled margin from –63.8 to 61.3°C. This margin confirmed that no boiling was expected during normal operation of UTA–2 at 230 W. Case 3 had no additional physics models but considered an overpower event during which the power of each LEU and natural uranium rod was at its respective peak values. This resulted in a study with the total assembly power equal to 176% of the nominal power of 230 W considered in Cases 1 and 2. The resulting natural circulation flows were slightly enhanced. The subcooled margin decreased slightly to 46.3°C, which is still a significant margin to local boiling of the water within the tank. This margin confirmed that no boiling was expected during an abnormal operation of UTA–2 at 406 W.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Leveraging hyperspectral phenotyping for accurate, non-destructive prediction of metabolite profiles in poplar under drought stress

Accurately predicting drought tolerance in woody perennial bioenergy crops is critical for sustainable biomass production under fluctuating precipitation. Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in the visible-near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) ranges offers a promising approach for predicting plant biochemical traits, yet its application in metabolite profiling remains underexplored. We integrated VNIR+SWIR HSI with untargeted metabolomics to investigate drought-induced metabolic shifts in Populus leaves from eight Populus genotypes. Metabolite profiling identified 127 compounds, with 73 showing significant drought responses spanning amino acids (AA), carbohydrates (CHO), phenolic glycosides (PG), organic acids (OA), fatty acids and alcohols (FA), terpenes (T), phenolic metabolites (P), and unclassified metabolites. Spectral analysis revealed consistently higher reflectance across VNIR and SWIR wavelengths in drought-stressed plants, corresponding with increased accumulation of AA and reduced CHO and PG levels. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression modeling identified robust spectral predictors of metabolite concentrations, associating VNIR wavelengths (500–700 nm) predominantly with AA and P, whereas SWIR wavelengths (1680–1700 nm) reliably predicted CHO, OA, and T. Several stable spectral-metabolite associations persisted across the two watering regimes (drought vs. well-watered), highlighting their potential as spectral biomarkers for non-destructive stress monitoring. Minimal genotype-specific variation suggests that observed spectral and metabolic responses were driven primarily by environmental factors, likely reflecting limited genetic diversity among the commercial Populus genotypes examined. This work establishes VNIR+SWIR hyperspectral imaging as a powerful, non-destructive phenotyping tool for precision monitoring and targeted improvement of drought resilience in bioenergy crops.

Biochemical trait prediction↗

A Gaussian process guide for signal regression in magnetic fusion

Extracting reliable information from diagnostic data in tokamaks is critical for understanding, analyzing, and controlling the behavior of fusion plasmas and validating models describing that behavior. Recent interest within the fusion community has focused on the use of principled statistical methods, such as Gaussian process regression (GPR), to attempt to develop sharper, more reliable, and more rigorous tools for examining the complex observed behavior in these systems. While GPR is an enormously powerful tool, there is also the danger of drawing fragile, or inconsistent conclusions from naive GPR fits that are not driven by principled treatments. Here we review the fundamental concepts underlying GPR in a way that may be useful for broad-ranging applications in fusion science. We also revisit how GPR is developed for profile fitting in tokamaks. We examine various extensions and targeted modifications applicable to experimental observations in the edge of the DIII-D tokamak. Finally, we discuss best practices for applying GPR to fusion data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Contextual modeling and Bayesian Optimization for Improved Injection at the Fermilab Booster

The Fermilab accelerator complex delivers high-intensity proton beams to serve the lab’s neutrino, muon, and fixed-target programs. A normal-conducting Linac accelerates H− beam to 400 MeV and injects into the Booster rapid cycling synchrotron via charge exchange, which accelerates protons to 8 GeV. Injection from the Linac into the Booster is a critical area for high-power performance of the Fermilab proton complex. The Booster is a high-intensity proton ring with extreme space-charge forces which necessitates precise control over the beam losses through the acceleration cycle. The main challenge for the reliability of Booster performance is compensating for drifting conditions in the beam from the Linac, which can drift daily in energy by up to O(1) MeV w.r.t. design. Drifts in Linac orbit and energy must be corrected to match the Booster, while simultaneously accommodating interdependent drifts in transverse and longitudinal beam quality. Operationally, compensation for these changes is addressed by manual tuning of the Linac output energy and/or Booster acceptance, which can be inefficient and time-consuming. This works describes contextual Bayesian Optimization for injection tuning that takes into account the state of Linac beam via information from instrumentation in the injection line (Beam position monitors (BPMs), beam loss monitors (BLMs), wire scanners for transverse profiles (WSs)), as well as RF cavity setting parameters from the Linac.

Sharankova, R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000027014593X)↗

An interactive machine learning platform for analyzing multi-particle coincidence data from cold target recoil ion momentum spectroscopy

We present SCULPT (Supervised Clustering and Uncovering Latent Patterns with Training), a comprehensive software platform for analyzing tabulated high-dimensional multi-particle coincidence data from Cold Target Recoil Ion Momentum Spectroscopy (COLTRIMS) experiments. The software addresses critical challenges in modern momentum spectroscopy by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with physics-informed analysis in an interactive web-based environment. SCULPT implements uniform manifold approximation and projection for non-linear dimensionality reduction to reveal correlations in high-dimensional data. We also discuss potential extensions to deep autoencoders for feature learning and genetic programming for automated discovery of physically meaningful observables. A novel adaptive confidence scoring system provides quantitative reliability assessments by evaluating user-selected clustering quality metrics with predefined weights that reflect each metric’s robustness. The platform features configurable molecular profiles for different experimental systems, interactive visualization with selection tools, and comprehensive data filtering capabilities. Utilizing a subset of SCULPT’s capabilities, we analyze photo-double-ionization data measured using the COLTRIMS method for three-body dissociation of the D 2 O molecule, revealing distinct fragmentation channels and their correlations with physics parameters. The software’s modular architecture and web-based implementation make it accessible to the broader atomic and molecular physics community, significantly reducing the time required for complex multi-dimensional analyses. This opens the door to finding and isolating rare events exhibiting non-linear correlations on the fly during experimental measurements, which can help steer exploration and improve the efficiency of experiments.

Artificial neural networks↗

Accurate determination of the electron spin polarization in magnetized iron and nickel foils for Møller polarimetry

The Møller polarimeter in Hall A at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, VA, has provided reliable measurements of electron beam polarization for the past two decades. Past experiments have typically required polarimetry at the 1% level of absolute uncertainty which the Møller polarimeter has delivered. However, the upcoming proposed experimental program including MOLLER and SoLID have stringent requirements on beam polarimetry precision at the level of 0.4% (The MOLLER Collaboration, 2014; The SoLID collaboration, 2019), requiring a systematic re-examination of all the contributing uncertainties. Møller polarimetry uses the double polarized scattering asymmetry of a polarized electron beam on a target with polarized atomic electrons. The target is a ferromagnetic material magnetized to align the spins in a given direction. In Hall A, the target is a pure iron foil aligned perpendicular to the beam and magnetized out of plane parallel or antiparallel to the beam direction. The acceptance of the detector is engineered to collect scattered electrons close to 90° in the center of mass frame where the analyzing power is a maximum (-7/9). One of the leading systematic errors comes from determination of the target foil polarization. Polarization of a magnetically saturated target foil requires knowledge of both the saturation magnetization and g', the electron g-factor which includes components from both spin and orbital angular momentum from which the spin fraction of magnetization is determined. Target foil polarization has been previously addressed in a 1997 publication “A precise target for Møller polarimetry” by de Bever et al. (1997) at a level of precision sufficient for experiments up to this point. Several shortcomings with the previous published value require revisiting the result prior to MOLLER. Here, we utilize the existing world data to provide a best estimate for target polarization for both nickel and iron foils including uncertainties in magnetization, high-field and temperature dependence, and fractional contribution to magnetization from orbital effects. We determine the foil electron spin polarization at 294 K to be 0.08020 ± 0.00018 (@4 T applied field) for iron and 0.018845+/-0.000053 (@2 T applied field) for nickel. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of additional systematic uncertainties to Møller polarimetry using this technique.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

srlife : a software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part I – metallic receivers

Here, this paper introduces srlife, a tool for estimating the structural service life of concentrating solar power (CSP) receivers operating at high temperatures. Supporting both metallic and ceramic receiver designs, srlife is available as open-source software at https://github.com/applied-material-modeling/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). Given basic receiver geometry and incident heat flux, the tool performs thermohydraulic and structural analysis and estimates the life of a receiver. Designed for easy integration into a software stack, including solar field and levelized cost analysis, the tool can be utilized for optimizing receiver designs to meet service life and economic targets. This paper is Part I in a two-part series. Part I discusses the analysis process used to estimate the life of metallic receivers, along with a description of the required input data. Additionally, several heuristics applied within srlife can reduce analysis time significantly while maintaining accurate life estimations for metallic receivers when compared to full analyses. Several examples demonstrating the utility of srlife in receiver design are also discussed. Part II focuses on the life estimation of ceramic receivers, using time-dependent reliability analysis and various ceramic failure models implemented in srlife.

Creep-fatigue analysis↗

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Importance of appropriate genome information for the design of mating type primers in black and yellow morel populations

Abstract Morels are highly prized edible fungi where sexual reproduction is essential for fruiting-body production. As a result, a comprehensive understanding of their sexual reproduction is of great interest. Central to this is the identification of the reproductive strategies used by morels. Sexual reproduction in fungi is controlled by mating-type ( MAT ) genes and morels are thought to be mainly heterothallic with two idiomorphs, MAT1-1 and MAT1-2. Genomic sequencing of black (Elata clade) and yellow (Esculenta clade) morel species has led to the development of PCR primers designed to amplify genes from the two idiomorphs for rapid genotyping of isolates from these two clades. To evaluate the design and theoretical performance of these primers we performed a thorough bioinformatic investigation, including the detection of the MAT region in publicly available Morchella genomes and in-silico PCR analyses. All examined genomes, including those used for primer design, appeared to be heterothallic. This indicates an inherent fault in the original primer design which utilized a single Morchella genome, as the use of two genomes with complementary mating types would be required to design accurate primers for both idiomorphs. Furthermore, potential off-targets were identified for some of the previously published primer sets, but verification was challenging due to lack of adequate genomic information and detailed methodologies for primer design. Examinations of the black morel specific primer pairs (MAT11L/R and MAT22L/R) indicated the MAT22 primers would correctly target and amplify the MAT1-2 idiomorph, but the MAT11 primers appear to be capable of amplifying incorrect off-targets within the genome. The yellow morel primer pairs (EMAT1-1 L/R and EMAT1-2 L/R) appear to have reporting errors, as the published primer sequences are dissimilar with reported amplicon sequences and the EMAT1-2 primers appear to amplify the RNA polymerase II subunit ( RPB2 ) gene. The lack of the reference genome used in primer design and descriptive methodology made it challenging to fully assess the apparent issues with the primers for this clade. In conclusion, additional work is still required for the generation of reliable primers to investigate mating types in morels and to assess their performance on different clades and across multiple geographical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Small Punch Testing of Molybdenum-99 Targets

Northstar Medical Radioisotopes is developing an accelerator-based method to produce 99 Mo, which is a parent isotope of the commonly used 99m Tc medical isotope. The Mo targets being designed for the accelerator will be produced from enriched 100 Mo, also known as aMo . Pressed and sintered powder feedstock is used to fabricate aMo targets, producing 29 mm disk-shaped targets. The targets are subjected to 1–6 days in line of an electron beam with subsequent dissolution of the disk to retain the 99 Mo, which decays to 99m Tc at radio-pharmacies. The press and sinter method is advantageous because the inherent porosity produced by this method enables increased surface area and therefore increased flow of dissolution media, decreasing the dissolution time and reducing the need for a highly acidic media. Although porosity aids in dissolution, it reduces the mechanical strength and ductility. Targets require good mechanical integrity when subjected to the conditions in the accelerator. Therefore, Northstar is seeking methods to rapidly test disk samples after fabrication to assure mechanical performance metrics are achieved. This report details the design and testing of a small punch test (SPT) that accommodates the 29 mm disk. Initial data were used to relate the SPT data to tensile properties, such as the yield strength (YS), ultimate tensile strength (UTS), and total elongation to failure. Although the SPT has been established as a somewhat reliable method for testing metallic materials, few studies have applied the SPT to refractory materials such as Mo. Based on tensile testing performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on different Mo samples, correlation between the Mo tensile and SPT properties could be performed, establishing a standard calibration that could be applied to other Mo samples. To test the efficacy of the SPT with Mo, multiple different disk batches were fabricated under different conditions (e.g., pressure, lubricant) with commercially available pure Mo powder. Generally, only a UTS could be well defined because the press and sinter disks failed under brittle fracture, making it difficult to determine the YS and elongation. Compared with disks fabricated with aMo powder, the aMo samples underperformed their pure nat Mo counterparts. This report summarizes the current status of the SPT, but further evaluation is needed before it can be applied as a reliable quality assurance tool.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A numerical framework for simulating the atmospheric variability of supermicron marine biogenic ice nucleating particles

Abstract. We present a framework for estimating concentrations of episodically elevated high-temperature marine ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the sea surface microlayer and their subsequent emission into the atmospheric boundary layer. These episodic INPs have been observed in multiple ship-based and coastal field campaigns, but the processes controlling their ocean concentrations and transfer to the atmosphere are not yet fully understood. We use a combination of empirical constraints and simulation outputs from an Earth system model to explore different hypotheses for explaining the variability of INP concentrations, and the occurrence of episodic INPs, in the marine atmosphere. In our calculations, we examine the following two proposed oceanic sources of high-temperature INPs: heterotrophic bacteria and marine biopolymer aggregates (MBPAs). Furthermore, we assume that the emission of these INPs is determined by the production of supermicron sea spray aerosol formed from jet drops, with an entrainment probability that is described by Poisson statistics. The concentration of jet drops is derived from the number concentration of supermicron sea spray aerosol calculated from model runs. We then derive the resulting number concentrations of marine high-temperature INPs (at 253 K) in the atmospheric boundary layer and compare their variability to atmospheric observations of INP variability. Specifically, we compare against concentrations of episodically occurring high-temperature INPs observed during field campaigns in the Southern Ocean, the Equatorial Pacific, and the North Atlantic. In this case study, we evaluate our framework at 253 K because reliable observational data at this temperature are available across three different ocean regions, but suitable data are sparse at higher temperatures. We find that heterotrophic bacteria and MBPAs acting as INPs provide only a partial explanation for the observed high INP concentrations. We note, however, that there are still substantial knowledge gaps, particularly concerning the identity of the oceanic INPs contributing most frequently to episodic high-temperature INPs, their specific ice nucleation activity, and the enrichment of their concentrations during the sea–air transfer process. Therefore, targeted measurements investigating the composition of these marine INPs and drivers for their emissions are needed, ideally in combination with modeling studies focused on the potential cloud impacts of these high-temperature INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

Trust in Artificial Intelligence: Meta-Analytic Findings

Objective The present meta-analysis sought to determine significant factors that predict trust in artificial intelligence (AI). Such factors were divided into those relating to (a) the human trustor, (b) the AI trustee, and (c) the shared context of their interaction. Background There are many factors influencing trust in robots, automation, and technology in general, and there have been several meta-analytic attempts to understand the antecedents of trust in these areas. However, no targeted meta-analysis has been performed examining the antecedents of trust in AI. Method Data from 65 articles examined the three predicted categories, as well as the subcategories of human characteristics and abilities, AI performance and attributes, and contextual tasking. Lastly, four common uses for AI (i.e., chatbots, robots, automated vehicles, and nonembodied, plain algorithms) were examined as further potential moderating factors. Results Results showed that all of the examined categories were significant predictors of trust in AI as well as many individual antecedents such as AI reliability and anthropomorphism, among many others. Conclusion Overall, the results of this meta-analysis determined several factors that influence trust, including some that have no bearing on AI performance. Additionally, we highlight the areas where there is currently no empirical research. Application Findings from this analysis will allow designers to build systems that elicit higher or lower levels of trust, as they require.

Behavioral Sciences↗

Global Ethanol-Blended-Fuel Vehicle Compatibility Study

The objective of this study is to understand the impact of ethanol-blended fuel at various blending levels (10%, 15%, and 20% vol.) on "in-operation" vehicles built to differing emissions and manufacturing standards around the world. The study focuses on vehicles used in Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. Historical experience in the United States and Brazil informs the analysis. The primary study question is: Are vehicles in targeted countries physically and operationally compatible with ethanol blended fuel? For a fuel to be compatible with a vehicle, the fuel must perform its function as part of the integrated fuel-vehicle system, meaning: the car should start easily and drive normally, the fuel should not cause catastrophic fuel system leaks, the fuel should not cause corrosion or degradation of any engine or fuel system components (including emissions control components). The history of E10 use in the United States, beginning in 1978, was evaluated and shows no reliability or operability issues for cars dating back to pre-emissions-control times -- and likely included many cars manufactured in the 1960s. This strongly supports the contention that fuel chemistry and property differences between E0 and E10 are so small that any car made to international standards in the last 50 years will have a very high probability of being fully compatible with E10. This conclusion is supported by the experience in Brazil in the 1970s, where E10 was also introduced, and ethanol blending for conventional cars rapidly ramped up to even higher blend levels. A limited number of fuel system and component manufacturers supply the global market, including Bosch, Continental, Denso, Delphi, and Visteon. To reduce complexity, ethanol-compatible materials began to be integrated in fuel system designs globally. Fuel systems evolved over the following decades to incorporate ethanol-compatible materials with core subsystem families, such as in-tank fuel pumps used across several global vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). A similarly compelling case can be made that all cars at the Tier 1 (or equivalent) emissions-control technology level or higher are fully compatible with E15 blends, based on the data evaluated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Ricardo in 2010. For cars at this technology level, the minor differences in fuel chemistry and properties between E10 and E15 are not significant. For E20, studies are not as extensive but are still highly significant. A long-term durability study conducted on mileage accumulation dynamometers presents convincing evidence that Tier 2 technology level cars have materials of construction and engine control authority for compatibility with E20, although this conclusion is not as strong as those drawn for E10 and E15, which are also partly based on real-world experience.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Lowering the computational barrier: Partially Bayesian neural networks for transparency in medical imaging AI

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can provide clinicians with fast and accurate predictions that are highly valuable for high-stakes medical decision-making, such as in brain tumor segmentation and treatment planning. However, these models largely lack transparency about the uncertainty in their predictions, potentially giving clinicians a false sense of reliability that may lead to grave consequences in patient care. Growing calls for Transparent and Responsible AI have promoted Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to capture and communicate uncertainty in a systematic and principled manner. However, traditional Bayesian UQ methods remain prohibitively costly for large, million-dimensional tumor segmentation DNNs such as the U-Net. In this work, we discuss a computationally-efficient UQ approach via the partially Bayesian neural networks (pBNN). In pBNN, only a single layer, strategically selected based on gradient-based sensitivity analysis, is targeted for Bayesian inference. We illustrate the effectiveness of pBNN in capturing the full uncertainty for a 7.8-million parameter U-Net. We also demonstrate how practitioners and model developers can use the pBNN's predictions to better understand the model's capabilities and behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗