Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Random variables”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗
DOE OSTI2021

Peridynamic Model for Microballistic Perforation of Multilayer Graphene

The peridynamic theory of solid mechanics is applied to the continuum modeling of the impact of small, high-velocity silica spheres on multilayer graphene targets. The model treats the laminate as a brittle elastic membrane. The material model includes separate failure criteria for the initial rupture of the membrane and for propagating cracks. Material variability is incorporated by assigning random variations in elastic properties within Voronoi cells. Here, the computational model is shown to reproduce the primary aspects of the response observed in experiments, including the growth of a family of radial cracks from the point of impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Information Theoretic Approach to Identify Dominant Voltage Influencers for Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Smart distribution grid with multiple renewable energy sources can experience random voltage fluctuations due to variable generation, which may result in voltage violations. Traditional voltage control algorithms are inadequate to handle fast voltage variations. Therefore, new dynamic control methods are being developed that can significantly benefit from the knowledge of dominant voltage influencer (DVI) nodes. DVI nodes for a particular node of interest refer to nodes that have a relatively high impact on the voltage fluctuations at that node. Conventional power flow-based algorithms to identify DVI nodes are computationally complex, which limits their use in real-time applications. This paper proposes a novel information theoretic voltage influencing score (VIS) that quantifies the voltage influencing capacity of nodes with DERs/active loads in a three phase unbalanced distribution system. VIS is then employed to rank the nodes and identify the DVI set. VIS is derived analytically in a computationally efficient manner and its efficacy to identify DVI nodes is validated using the IEEE 37-node test system. It is shown through experiments that KL divergence and Bhattacharyya distance are effective indicators of DVI nodes with an identifying accuracy of more than 90%. Additionally, the computation burden is also reduced by an order of 5, thus providing the foundation for efficient voltage control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational Model for Microballistic Perforation of Multilayer Graphene

The peridynamic theory of solid mechanics is applied to the continuum modeling of the impact of small, high-velocity silica spheres on multilayer graphene targets. The model treats the laminate as a brittle elastic membrane. The material model includes separate failure criteria for the initial rupture of the membrane and for propagating cracks. Material variability is incorporated by assigning random variations in elastic properties within Voronoi cells. The computational model is shown to reproduce the primary aspects of the response observed in experiments, including the growth of a family of radial cracks from the point of impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRS1956

On the Contribution of Turbulent Boundary Layers to the Noise Inside a Fuselage

The following report deals in preliminary fashion with the transmission through a fuselage of random noise generated on the fuselage skin by a turbulent boundary layer. The concept of attenuation is abandoned and instead the problem is formulated as a sequence of two linear couplings: the turbulent boundary layer fluctuations excite the fuselage skin in lateral vibrations and the skin vibrations induce sound inside the fuselage. The techniques used are those required to determine the response of linear systems to random forcing functions of several variables. A certain degree of idealization has been resorted to. Thus the boundary layer is assumed locally homogeneous, the fuselage skin is assumed flat, unlined and free from axial loads and the 'cabin' air is bounded only by the vibrating plate so that only outgoing waves are considered. Some of the details of the statistical description have been simplified in order to reveal the basic features of the problem. The results, strictly applicable only to the limiting case of thin boundary layers, show that the sound pressure intensity is proportional to the square of the free stream density, the square of cabin air density and inversely proportional to the first power of the damping constant and to the second power of the plate density. The dependence on free stream velocity and boundary layer thickness cannot be given in general without a detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the pressure fluctuations in the boundary layer (in particular the frequency spectrum). For a flat spectrum the noise intensity depends on the fifth power of the velocity and the first power of the boundary layer thickness. This suggests that boundary layer removal is probably not an economical means for decreasing cabin noise. In general, the analysis presented here only reduces the determination of cabin noise intensity to the measurement of the effect of any one of our variables (free stream velocity, boundary layer thickness, plate thickness or the characteristic velocity of propagation in the plate). The plate generates noise by vibrating in resonance over a wide range of frequencies and increasing the damping constant is consequently an effective method of decreasing noise generation. One of the main features of the results is that the relevant quantities upon which noise intensity depends are non-dimensional numbers in which boundary layer and plate properties enter as ratios. This is taken as an indication that in testing models of structures for boundary layer noise it is not sufficient to duplicate in the model the structural characteristics of the fuselage. One must match properly the characteristics of the exicitng pressure fluctuations to that of the structure.

Corcos, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Vegetation Monitoring Optimization with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing Measurements and Land Surface Models Over East Africa

The majority of people in East Africa rely on the agro-pastoral system for their livelihood, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Agro-pastoral droughts are endemic to the region and are considered the main natural hazard that contributes to food insecurity. Drought begins with rainfall deficit, gradually leading to soil moisture deficit, higher land surface temperature, and finally impacts to vegetation growth. Therefore, monitoring vegetation conditions is essential in understanding the progression of drought, potential effects on food security, and providing early warning information needed for drought mitigation decisions. Because vegetation processes couple the land and atmosphere, monitoring of vegetation conditions requires consideration of both water provision and demand. While there is consensus in using either the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or evapotranspiration(ET) for vegetation monitoring, a comprehensive assessment optimizing the use of both has not yet been done. Moreover, the evaluation methods for understanding the relationships between NDVI and ET for vegetation monitoring are also limited. Taking these gaps into account we have developed a framework to optimize vegetation monitoring using both NDVI and ET by identifying where they perform the best by using triple collocation and cross-correlation methods. We estimated the random error structure in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI; ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model; and ET from land surface models (LSMs). LSM ET and SSEBop ET have been found to be better indicators for vegetation monitoring during extreme drought events, while NDVI could provide better information on vegetation condition during wetter than normal conditions. The random error structures of these variables suggest that LSM ET is most likely to provide important information for vegetation monitoring over low and high ends of the vegetation fraction areas. Over moderate vegetative areas, any of these variables could provide important vegetation information for drought characterization and food security assessments. While this study provides a framework for optimizing vegetation monitoring for drought and food security assessments over East Africa, the framework can be adopted to optimize vegetation monitoring over any other drought and food insecure region of the world.

triple collocation↗
NASA NTRS1994

A probabilistic fatigue analysis of multiple site damage

The variability in initial crack size and fatigue crack growth is incorporated in a probabilistic model that is used to predict the fatigue lives for unstiffened aluminum alloy panels containing multiple site damage (MSD). The uncertainty of the damage in the MSD panel is represented by a distribution of fatigue crack lengths that are analytically derived from equivalent initial flaw sizes. The variability in fatigue crack growth rate is characterized by stochastic descriptions of crack growth parameters for a modified Paris crack growth law. A Monte-Carlo simulation explicitly describes the MSD panel by randomly selecting values from the stochastic variables and then grows the MSD cracks with a deterministic fatigue model until the panel fails. Different simulations investigate the influences of the fatigue variability on the distributions of remaining fatigue lives. Six cases that consider fixed and variable conditions of initial crack size and fatigue crack growth rate are examined. The crack size distribution exhibited a dominant effect on the remaining fatigue life distribution, and the variable crack growth rate exhibited a lesser effect on the distribution. In addition, the probabilistic model predicted that only a small percentage of the life remains after a lead crack develops in the MSD panel.

Rohrbaugh, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electronegative metal dopants improve switching variability in Al 2 ⁢O 3 resistive switching devices

Resistive random-access memories are promising for nonvolatile memory and brain-inspired computing applications. High variability and low yield of these devices are key drawbacks hindering reliable training of physical neural networks. In this paper, we show that doping an oxide electrolyte, Al 2 ⁢O 3 , with electronegative metals makes resistive switching significantly more reproducible, surpassing the reproducibility requirements for obtaining reliable hardware neuromorphic circuits. Based on density functional theory calculations, the underlying mechanism is hypothesized to be the ease of creating oxygen vacancies in the vicinity of electronegative dopants due to the capture of the associated electrons by dopant midgap states and the weakening of Al-O bonds. These oxygen vacancies and vacancy clusters also bind significantly to the dopant, thereby serving as preferential sites and building blocks in the formation of conducting paths. Throughout this work, we validate this theory experimentally by implanting different dopants over a range of electronegativities in devices made of multiple alternating layers of Al 2 ⁢O 3 and WN and find superior repeatability and yield with highly electronegative metals, Au, Pt, and Pd. These devices also exhibit a gradual SET transition, enabling multibit switching that is desirable for analog computing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Gravitational Core-Mantle Coupling and the Acceleration of the Earth

Gravitational core-mantle coupling may be the cause of the observed variable acceleration of the Earth's rotation on the 1000 year timescale. The idea is that density inhomogeneities which randomly come and go in the liquid outer core gravitationally attract density inhomogeneities in the mantle and crust, torquing the mantle and changing its rotation state. The corresponding torque by the mantle on the core may also explain the westward drift of the magnetic field of 0.2 deg per year. Gravitational core-mantle coupling would stochastically affect the rate of change of the Earth's obliquity by just a few per cent. Its contribution to polar wander would only be about 0.5% the presently observed rate. Tidal friction is slowing down the rotation of the Earth, overwhelming a smaller positive acceleration from postglacial rebound. Coupling between the liquid outer core of the Earth and the mantle has long been a suspected reason for changes in the length-of-day. The present investigation focuses on the gravitational coupling between the density anomalies in the convecting liquid outer core and those in the mantle and crust as a possible cause for the observed nonsecular acceleration on the millenial timescale. The basic idea is as follows. There are density inhomogeneities caused by blobs circulating in the outer core like the blobs in a lava lamp; thus the outer core's gravitational field is not featureless. Moreover, these blobs will form and dissipate somewhat randomly. Thus there will be a time variability to the fields. These density inhomogeneities will gravitationally attract the density anomalies in the mantle.

Rubincam, David Parry↗
NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗
NASA NTRS2020

Forest Potential Productivity Mapping by Linking Remote-Sensing-Derived Metrics to Site Variables

A fine-resolution region-wide map of forest site productivity is an essential need for effective large-scale forestry planning and management. In this study, we incorporated Sentinel-2 satellite data into an increment-based measure of forest productivity (biomass growth index (BGI)) derived from climate, lithology, soils, and topographic metrics to map improved BGI (iBGI) in parts of North American Acadian regions. Initially, several Sentinel-2 variables including nine single spectral bands and 12 spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) were used in combination with forest management variables to predict tree volume/ha and height using Random Forest. The results showed a 10–12 % increase in out of bag (OOB) r2when Sentinel-2 variables were included in the prediction of both volume and height together with BGI. Later, selected Sentinel-2 variables were used for biomass growth prediction in Maine, USA and New Brunswick, Canada using data from 7738 provincial permanent sample plots. The Sentinel-2 red-edge position (S2REP) index was identified as the most important variable over others to have known influence on site productivity. While a slight improvement in the iBGI accuracy occurred compared to the base BGI model (~2%), substantial changes to coefficients of other variables were evident and some site variables became less important when S2REP was included.

site productivity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of 3D Woven Design Sensitivities Using a Rapid Multiscale Analysis Technique

Highly-refined finite element models of three-dimension (3D) woven composite systems currently require excessive computational demands that limit their use in sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. An alternative analysis methodology was developed using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) where multiscale models of a 3D woven composite (including inter-tow matrix voids and constituent failure) can be completed on a single central processing unit(CPU)on the order of ~30 s. To develop inputs and validation data for the NASMAT model, coupon and acid-digesting testing and x-ray computed tomography were performed. The NASMAT inputs were parameterized using a set of 25 input variables and distributions. These inputs were randomly sampled to generate a total of 100,000 NASMAT analyses that could be used to understand the influence of different material and geometric properties on the warp and weft-direction stiffness and strength. These analyses (including pre/post-processing) were performed in less than eight hours on a 120 CPU cluster. The computational efficiency of the NASMAT model enabled a sensitivity analysis to be performed, and dominant input variables were able to be identified. Key results were consistent with theoretical and experimental observations for the specific 3D woven system studied in this work.

NASMAT↗