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At least 469 records · Page 26

Discrete-time entropy formulation of optimal and adaptive control problems

The discrete-time version of the entropy formulation of optimal control of problems developed by G. N. Saridis (1988) is discussed. Given a dynamical system, the uncertainty in the selection of the control is characterized by the probability distribution (density) function which maximizes the total entropy. The equivalence between the optimal control problem and the optimal entropy problem is established, and the total entropy is decomposed into a term associated with the certainty equivalent control law, the entropy of estimation, and the so-called equivocation of the active transmission of information from the controller to the estimator. This provides a useful framework for studying the certainty equivalent and adaptive control laws.

Tsai, Yweting A.↗

Methodologies for building robust schedules

COMPASS is the name of a Computer Aided Scheduling System designed and built for NASA. COMPASS can be used to develop schedule of activities based upon the temporal relationships of the activities and their resource requirements. COMPASS uses this information, and guided by the user, develops precise start and stop times for the activities. In actual practice however, it is impossible to know with complete certainty what the actual durations of the scheduled activities will really be. The best that one can hope for is knowledge of the probability distribution for the durations. This paper investigates methodologies for using a scheduling tool like COMPASS that is based upon definite values for the resource requirements, while building schedules that remain valid in the face of the schedule execution perturbations. Representations for the schedules developed by these methodologies are presented, along with a discussion of the algorithm that could be used by a computer onboard a spacecraft to efficiently monitor and execute these schedules.

Dean, John H.↗

Probabilistic evaluation of fuselage-type composite structures

A methodology is developed to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. Uncertain behavior is the consequence of the random variation (scatter) of the primitive (independent random) variables at the constituent, ply, laminate and structural levels. This methodology is implemented in the IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) computer code. A fuselage-type composite structure is analyzed to demonstrate the code's capability. The probability distribution functions of structural responses are computed. Sensitivity of a given structural response to each primitive variable is also determined from the analyses.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.↗

Probabilistic simulation of multi-scale composite behavior

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the probabilistic composite material properties at all composite scale levels due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties and in the fabrication process variables. The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of material properties. The sensitivity of the probabilistic composite material property to each random variable is determined. This information can be used to reduce undesirable uncertainties in material properties at the macro scale of the composite by reducing the uncertainties in the most influential random variables at the micro scale. This methodology was implemented into the computer code PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in the material properties of a typical laminate and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The experimental data of composite material properties at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN.

Liaw, D. G.↗

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.↗

Gravity and count probabilities in an expanding universe

The time evolution of nonlinear clustering on large scales in cold dark matter, hot dark matter, and white noise models of the universe is investigated using N-body simulations performed with a tree code. Count probabilities in cubic cells are determined as functions of the cell size and the clustering state (redshift), and comparisons are made with various theoretical models. We isolate the features that appear to be the result of gravitational instability, those that depend on the initial conditions, and those that are likely a consequence of numerical limitations. More specifically, we study the development of skewness, kurtosis, and the fifth moment in relation to variance, the dependence of the void probability on time as well as on sparseness of sampling, and the overall shape of the count probability distribution. Implications of our results for theoretical and observational studies are discussed.

Bouchet, Francois R.↗

Statistical plant set estimation using Schroeder-phased multisinusoidal input design

A frequency domain method is developed for plant set estimation. The estimation of a plant 'set' rather than a point estimate is required to support many methods of modern robust control design. The approach here is based on using a Schroeder-phased multisinusoid input design which has the special property of placing input energy only at the discrete frequency points used in the computation. A detailed analysis of the statistical properties of the frequency domain estimator is given, leading to exact expressions for the probability distribution of the estimation error, and many important properties. It is shown that, for any nominal parametric plant estimate, one can use these results to construct an overbound on the additive uncertainty to any prescribed statistical confidence. The 'soft' bound thus obtained can be used to replace 'hard' bounds presently used in many robust control analysis and synthesis methods.

Bayard, D. S.↗

Derivation of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. A dynamic failure is said to occur if this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline. The authors present a method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space-which is derived from given input and state constraints-is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. The authors consider a one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure.

Shin, Kang G.↗

Statistics of highly magnified gravitational images in clusters of galaxies. I - Implications for the clusters. II - Implications for the sources

A study is presently conducted of the probability distribution of observing images of background galaxies that are gravitationally lensed in the form of elongated arcs by clusters of galaxies, as a function of arc width, curvature radius, and the elongation's orientation. An upper limit is obtained on the size of the cores which is smaller than cluster core radii obtained for the gas from the X-ray surface brightness. It is argued that lensing clusters tend to be elongated along the line of sight; projection effects will enhance surface density. In the second part of this work, it is shown that the number of arcs expected in lensing clusters is primarily dependent on the angular size of the sources, since lower magnification is required to generate an arc of fixed length for a larger source.

Miralda-Escude, Jordi↗

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

Derivation and application of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. If this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline, either the necessary conditions for system stability are violated or the system leaves the allowed state-space. In such a case a dynamic failure is said to occur to the system. A method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems by considering system stability and the allowed state-space is presented. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space - which is derived from given input and state constraints - is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. A one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure is also considered. The knowledge of hard deadline is then applied to the design of error recovery in a triple modular redundant (TMR) controller computer.

Shin, Kang G.↗

Gravitational microlensing - Powerful combination of ray-shooting and parametric representation of caustics

We present a combination of two very different methods for numerically calculating the effects of gravitational microlensing: the backward-ray-tracing that results in two-dimensional magnification patterns, and the parametric representation of caustic lines; they are in a way complementary to each other. The combination of these methods is much more powerful than the sum of its parts. It allows to determine the total magnification and the number of microimages as a function of source position. The mean number of microimages is calculated analytically and compared to the numerical results. The peaks in the lightcurves, as obtained from one-dimensional tracks through the magnification pattern, can now be divided into two groups: those which correspond to a source crossing a caustic, and those which are due to sources passing outside cusps. We determine the frequencies of those two types of events as a function of the surface mass density, and the probability distributions of their magnitudes. We find that for low surface mass density as many as 40 percent of all events in a lightcurve are not due to caustic crossings, but rather due to passings outside cusps.

Wambsganss, J.↗

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high pressure fuel turbopump of the space shuttle main engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗

A reevaluaion of data on atmospheric turbulence and airplane gust loads for application in spectral calculations

The available information on the spectrum of atmospheric turbulence is first briefly reviewed. On the basis of these results, methods are developed for the conversion of available gust statistics normally given in terms of counts of gusts or acceleration peaks into a form appropriate for use in spectral calculations. The fundamental quantity for this purpose appears to be the probability distribution of the root-mean-square gust velocity. Estimates of this distribution are derived from data for a number of load histories of transport operations; also, estimates of the variation of this distribution with altitude and weather condition are derived from available data and the method of applying these results to the calculation of airplane gust-response histories in operations is also outlined. (author)

Press, Harry↗

Wave and pseudo-diffusion equations from squeezed states

We show that the probability distributions P(sub n)(q,p;y) := the absolute value squared of (n(p,q;y), which are obtained from squeezed states, obey an interesting partial differential equation, to which we give two intuitive interpretations: as a wave equation in one space dimension; and as a pseudo-diffusion equation. We also study the corresponding Wehrl entropies S(sub n)(y), and we show that they have minima at zero squeezing, y = 0.

Daboul, Jamil↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗