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DOE OSTI2024

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Pre- and Post-Flight Estimations of Pitch Damping Coefficients for Unguided Entry Vehicles

Introduction: Pre-flight predictions of pitch damping coefficient (𝐶!!+𝐶!"̇)curves are used in entry simulations to determine flight readiness and if any dynamic remediation strategies are required. Accurate characterization of these pitch damping coefficient curves is crucial for mission success. Historically, pre-flight estimations of these curves are derived experimentally either via ballistic range testing or with 1-degree-of-freedom (DOF) free-or forced-oscillation wind tunnel testing. Methodology:With post-flight best-estimated trajectories, a fitting procedure as described in Karlgaard, et. al. [1] is used to compare pre-and post-flight pitch damping coefficients. This technique relies on an assumed analytical form of the trajectory, a limited 3-DOF representation described in Schoenenbergerand Queen [2], which results in anEuler-Cauchy solution form.This solution assumes constant density,thus limited amplitude multi-peak windows of the trajectory are considered to populate the pitch damping-amplitudes pace. Fig. 1 shows preliminary estimations of the pitch damping coefficients estimated using the post-flight best estimated trajectoryfor MER B, using a3-amplitude-peak window. Important to note is that the Euler-Cauchy solution also assumes planar motion, thus coning or 𝛽contribution is not included. Further,the estimated post-flight pitch damping approximations and the pre-flight predictions shown are effective representations of pitch damping, or the integrated effect of the pitch damping coefficient over one pitch cycle at the corresponding cycle’s peak amplitude. Effective pitch damping coefficient curves provide more intuitive insights about where the vehicle is stable and permits readily processed comparisons between data-sets. It is important to note that most pitch damping curves, such as those reported in aerodatabases and utilized in flight mechanics trajectory simulations, are represented in instantaneous angle-of-attack space distinct from what is presented in Fig 1. The extracted post-flight pitch damping coefficient points show a wide range of values across a narrow band of amplitudes (Fig.1a), albeit centered on the published pre-flight approximation. This also applies to the prediction as a function of Mach in Fig1b, where the post-flight scatter points are centered around the pre-flight predictions, but the pre-flight predictions notably lack data aboveMach 5.Further tuning of the technique, such as changing the number of peaks considered in each stencil, resolving density in higher resolution, and employing more accurate fitting procedures (beyond scipy.curve_fit()), will be performed. PosterFocus:This study will apply this reconstruction method to the as-flown trajectories for the following unguided entry vehicles: MER A, MER B, IRVE3, Phoenix, Insight, Pathfinder, and SIAD. The pitch damping coefficient will be derived from these trajectories and compared with the pre-flight predictions. Comparing across different missions, entry environments, and vehicle geometries can inform where our pre-flight testing methodologies accurately capture the flight dynamics. Results will provide valuable insight into the accuracy of pre-flight predicted pitch damping curves. Beyond that, this method can shed light on how accurate these curves need to be, which can inform uncertainty ranges applied to pre-flight curves for other missions.

pitch damping coefficient↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.

Frith, J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

Frith, James↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effect on the Lunar Exosphere of a CME Passage

It has long been recognized that solar wind bombardment onto exposed surfaces in the solar system will produce an energetic component to the exospheres about those bodies. Laboratory experiments have shown that the sputter yield can be noticeably increased in the case of a good insulating surface. It is now known that the solar wind composition is highly dependent on the origin of the particular plasma. Using the measured composition of the slow wind, fast wind, solar energetic particle (SEP) population, and coronal mass ejection (CME), broken down into its various components, we have estimated the total sputter yield for each type of solar wind. The heavy ion component, especially the He++ component, greatly enhances the total sputter yield during times when the heavy ion population is enhanced, most notably during a coronal mass ejection. To simulate the effect on the lunar exosphere of a CME passage past the Moon, we ran a Monte Carlo code for the species Na, K, Mg and Ca.

Killen, Rosemary M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effect on the Lunar Exosphere of a CME Passage

It has long been recognized that solar wind bombardment onto exposed surfaces in the solar system will produce an energetic component to the exospheres about those bodies. Laboratory experiments have shown that the sputter yield can be noticeably increased in the case of a good insulating surface. It is now known that the solar wind composition is highly dependent on the origin of the particular plasma. Using the measured composition of the slow wind. fast wind. solar energetic particle (SEP) population. and coronal mass ejection (CME), broken down into its various components, we have estimated the total sputter yield for each type of solar wind. The heavy ion component, especially the He(++) component, greatly enhances the total sputter yield during times when the heavy ion population is enhanced, most notably during a coronal mass ejection. To simulate the etfect on the lunar exosphere of a CME passage past the Moon, we ran a Monte Carlo code for the species Na, K, Mg and Ca.

Killen, Roseamry M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A parametric multiclass Bayes error estimator for the multispectral scanner spatial model performance evaluation

The author has identified the following significant results. The probability of correct classification of various populations in data was defined as the primary performance index. The multispectral data being of multiclass nature as well, required a Bayes error estimation procedure that was dependent on a set of class statistics alone. The classification error was expressed in terms of an N dimensional integral, where N was the dimensionality of the feature space. The multispectral scanner spatial model was represented by a linear shift, invariant multiple, port system where the N spectral bands comprised the input processes. The scanner characteristic function, the relationship governing the transformation of the input spatial, and hence, spectral correlation matrices through the systems, was developed.

Mobasseri, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990–2017

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M3Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M3Fusion, we create a multi-model composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8,834 sites globally)in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multi-model composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R2=0.81 at test point, 0.63 at 0.1°,0.62 at 0.5°) than the multi-model mean (R2=0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.

environmental modeling↗

NASA NTRS2012

Design and Application of the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool

Conducting human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will present unique challenges in the areas of supportability and maintainability. The durations of proposed missions can be relatively long and re-supply of logistics, including maintenance and repair items, will be limited or non-existent. In addition, mass and volume constraints in the transportation system will limit the total amount of logistics that can be flown along with the crew. These constraints will require that new strategies be developed with regards to how spacecraft systems are designed and maintained. NASA is currently developing Design Reference Missions (DRMs) as an initial step in defining future human missions. These DRMs establish destinations and concepts of operation for future missions, and begin to define technology and capability requirements. Because of the unique supportability challenges, historical supportability data and models are not directly applicable for establishing requirements for beyond LEO missions. However, supportability requirements could have a major impact on the development of the DRMs. The mass, volume, and crew resources required to support the mission could all be first order drivers in the design of missions, elements, and operations. Therefore, there is a need for enhanced analysis capabilities to more accurately establish mass, volume, and time requirements for supporting beyond LEO missions. Additionally, as new technologies and operations are proposed to reduce these requirements, it is necessary to have accurate tools to evaluate the efficacy of those approaches. In order to improve the analysis of supportability requirements for beyond LEO missions, the Space Missions Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT). This tool is a probabilistic simulator that evaluates the need for repair and maintenance activities during space missions and the logistics and crew requirements to support those activities. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the tool simulates potential failures in defined systems, based on established component reliabilities, and then evaluates the capability of the crew to repair those failures given a defined store of spares and maintenance items. Statistical analysis of Monte Carlo runs provides probabilistic estimates of overall mission safety and reliability. This paper will describe the operation of the EMAT, including historical data sources used to populate the model, simulation processes, and outputs. Analysis results are provided for a candidate exploration system, including baseline estimates of required sparing mass and volume. Sensitivity analysis regarding the effectiveness of proposed strategies to reduce mass and volume requirements and improve mission reliability is included in these results.

Stromgren, Chel↗

NASA NTRS1978

Meteorological limits on the growth and development of screwworm populations

A program to evaluate the use of remotely sensed data as an additional tool in existing and projected efforts to eradicate the screwworm began in 1973. Estimating weather conditions by use of remotely sensed data was part of the study. Next, the effect of weather on screwworm populations was modeled. A significant portion of the variation in screwworm population growth and development has been traced to weather-related parameters. This report deals with the salient points of the weather and the screwworm population interaction.

Phinney, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nutrients strengthen density dependence of per-capita growth and mortality rates in the soil bacterial community

Density dependence in an ecological community has been observed in many macro-organismal ecosystems and is hypothesized to maintain biodiversity but is poorly understood in microbial ecosystems. Here, in this study, we analyze data from an experiment using quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP) to estimate per-capita growth and mortality rates of bacterial populations in soils from several ecosystems along an elevation gradient which were subject to nutrient addition of either carbon alone (glucose; C) or carbon with nitrogen (glucose + ammonium-sulfate; C + N). Across all ecosystems, we found that higher population densities, quantified by the abundance of genomes per gram of soil, had lower per-capita growth rates in C + N-amended soils. Similarly, bacterial mortality rates in C + N-amended soils increased at a significantly higher rate with increasing population size than mortality rates in control and C-amended soils. In contrast to the hypothesis that density dependence would promote or maintain diversity, we observed significantly lower bacterial diversity in soils with stronger negative density-dependent growth. Here, density dependence was significantly but weakly responsive to nutrients and was not associated with higher bacterial diversity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microalgae as a future food source

One of the key challenges that we face in the 21st century is the need to feed an ever-increasing human population with increasingly limited natural resources. Even today it is estimated that roughly 1 out of 9 people in the world are undernourished, of which the most important factor is protein-energy malnutrition. By establishing microalgae as a new food and feed platform, we have the opportunity to increase the supply of these essential products to address global demands in a more efficient and environmentally sustainable way. Many types of algae are nutritionally complete foods, their yields outperform most plant crops, and there is a growing set of tools to develop improved strains of algae. Similar improvements were achieved in traditional crops through thousands of years of breeding and strain selection, whereas with the newest genetic engineering tools and advanced strain selection techniques, similar changes can be implemented in microalgae in just a few years. Here we describe different strategies that could be used to enhance the nutritional content, productivity, and organoleptic traits of algae to help drive development of this new crop. Clearly developing more efficient, sustainable, and nutritious foods and feed would be an enormous benefit for the planet, and algae represents an opportunity to develop a new crop that would complement traditional agriculture, and one that could potential result in a more efficient means to meet the world's food and feed supply.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hantavirus is Associated With Open Developed Areas and Arid Climates, Highlighting Increased Risk in the Western United States

In the United States, hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, an acute respiratory illness with a high mortality rate. Most people contract HPS from exposure to infected rodent excrement. The interannual dynamics of hantavirus transmission are tied to both environmental and human-related factors, including changes in annual climate conditions, rodent populations, and the built environment in which humans are more likely to be exposed. Similar environmental conditions and socioeconomic factors also likely determine the long-term risk of hantavirus exposure. Here, we use ecological niche models and human cases of HPS in the U.S. from 1993 to 2022 to assess hantavirus risk using four socioeconomic variables, 17 land use variables, one variable of rodent richness, and seven climate variables to determine both the geographical locations of highest exposure risk and leading environmental predictors. We found that areas with higher relative risk tend to be where it is drier, higher social vulnerability, increased rodent richness, and more open to low levels of development—this largely mapped to the western U.S. We found evidence that fringe ecosystems may be important areas of hantavirus transmission, similar to other emerging diseases. Increased rodent richness was associated with increased hantavirus risk, warranting further investigation into how the abundance and community composition of rodents could impact long-term risk. These risk maps can help public health officials develop plans for mitigating hantavirus, especially for the most susceptible populations. They can also be used to further investigate regions estimated to be at high risk for hantavirus where disease cases have not been as common but may be underreported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Do LIGO/Virgo Black Hole Mergers Produce AGN Flares? The Case of GW190521 and Prospects for Reaching a Confident Association

The recent report of an association of the gravitational-wave (GW) binary black hole (BBH) merger GW190521 with a flare in the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) J124942.3 + 344929 has generated tremendous excitement. However, GW190521 has one of the largest localization volumes among all of the GW events detected so far. The 90% localization volume likely contains 7400 unobscured AGNs brighter than g ≤ 20.5 AB mag, and it results in a ≳70% probability of chance coincidence for an AGN flare consistent with the GW event. We present a Bayesian formalism to estimate the confidence of an AGN association by analyzing a population of BBH events with dedicated follow-up observations. Depending on the fraction of BBHs arising from AGNs, counterpart searches of $\mathcal{O}(1) - \mathcal{O}(100)$ GW events are needed to establish a confident association, and more than an order of magnitude more for searches without follow-up (i.e., using only the locations of AGN and GW events). Follow-up campaigns of the top ~5% (based on volume localization and binary mass) of BBH events with total rest-frame mass ≥50 M ⊙ are expected to establish a confident association during the next LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run (O4), as long as the true value of the fraction of BBHs giving rise to AGN flares is >0.1. Our formalism allows us to jointly infer cosmological parameters from a sample of BBH events that include chance coincidence flares. Until the confidence of AGN associations is established, the probability of chance coincidence must be taken into account to avoid biasing astrophysical and cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

A new upper limit to the local population II density.

An upper limit to the local population II density is derived, in terms of the mass-luminosity ratio, on the basis of U, B, and V photometric observations of several thousand stars with V magnitudes between 12 and 18 in a region near the North Galactic Pole. The photographic and photoelectric photometry and the reduction procedures are discussed. Models of the density distribution and luminosity function of the population II stars are used to predict their distribution in color and apparent magnitude. The derived local density of population II is found to be significantly lower than previous estimates. Possible causes for this discrepancy are considered.

Weistrop, D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Study of recreational land and open space using Skylab imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Sl90B color photography has adequate resolution to detect or identify many natural and cultural features which are significant for the evaluation of recreational land and open space. The effectiveness of the interpretation could be improved if coverage were obtained at two or three different seasons so that indicators such as seasonal changes in vegetation cover or snow enhancement could aid the interpretation of land use and land cover. The degree of detail which can be observed from Sl90B photography makes it useful for the following purposes: (1) Photography can be used to obtain general familiarity with a large regional area, and to study interrelationships of major natural and cultural features within the area. (2) Existing recreational facilities such as golf courses, parks, stadiums, race tracks, and marinas can be detected and identified. (3) The photography can be used for initial selection of recreation sites. (4) It would also indicate trends in population growth, which constitute one type of information needed in estimating the growth of recreation demand. The photography has only limited use for planning individual site planning of parks, golf courses, and other recreation facilities.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Runway Exit Designs for Capacity Improvement Demonstrations. Phase 1: Algorithm Development

A description and results are presented of a study to locate and design rapid runway exits under realistic airport conditions. The study developed a PC-based computer simulation-optimization program called REDIM (runway exit design interactive model) to help future airport designers and planners to locate optimal exits under various airport conditions. The model addresses three sets of problems typically arising during runway exit design evaluations. These are the evaluations of existing runway configurations, addition of new rapid runway turnoffs, and the design of new runway facilities. The model is highly interactive and allows a quick estimation of the expected value of runway occupancy time. Aircraft populations and airport environmental conditions are among the multiple inputs to the model to execute a viable runway location and geometric design solution. The results presented suggest that possible reductions on runway occupancy time (ROT) can be achieved with the use of optimally tailored rapid runway designs for a given aircraft population. Reductions of up to 9 to 6 seconds are possible with the implementation of 30 m/sec variable geometry exits.

Trani, A. A.↗