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DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of Electron Antineutrino Oscillation Amplitude and Frequency via Neutron Capture on Hydrogen at Daya Bay

This Letter reports the first measurement of the oscillation amplitude and frequency of reactor antineutrinos at Daya Bay via neutron capture on hydrogen using 1958 days of data. With over 3.6 million signal candidates, an optimized candidate selection, improved treatment of backgrounds and efficiencies, refined energy calibration, and an energy response model for the capture-on-hydrogen sensitive region, the relative ν ¯ e rates and energy spectra variation among the near and far detectors gives sin 2 2 θ 13 = 0.075 9 − 0.0049 + 0.0050 and Δ m 32 2 = ( 2.7 2 − 0.15 + 0.14 ) × 10 − 3 eV 2 assuming the normal neutrino mass ordering, and Δ m 32 2 = ( − 2.8 3 − 0.14 + 0.15 ) × 10 − 3 eV 2 for the inverted neutrino mass ordering. This estimate of sin 2 2 θ 13 is consistent with and essentially independent from the one obtained using the capture-on-gadolinium sample at Daya Bay. The combination of these two results yields sin 2 2 θ 13 = 0.0833 ± 0.0022 , which represents an 8% relative improvement in precision regarding the Daya Bay full 3158-day capture-on-gadolinium result. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Joint Oscillation Analysis of Super-Kamiokande Atmospheric and T2K Accelerator Neutrino Data

The Super-Kamiokande and T2K Collaborations present a joint measurement of neutrino oscillation parameters from their atmospheric and beam neutrino data. It uses a common interaction model for events overlapping in neutrino energy and correlated detector systematic uncertainties between the two datasets, which are found to be compatible. Using 3244.4 days of atmospheric data and a beam exposure of 19.7⁢(16.3) × 10 20 protons on target in (anti)neutrino mode, the analysis finds a 1.9⁢𝜎 exclusion of 𝐶⁢𝑃 conservation (defined as 𝐽 𝐶⁢𝑃 = 0) and a 1.2⁢𝜎 exclusion of the inverted mass ordering.

Neutrino detection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time Series Classification for Locating Forced Oscillation Sources

Here, this article presents a machine learning based time-series classification method for using synchrophasor measurements to locate the source of forced oscillation (FO) for fast disturbance removal. First, multivariate time series (MTS) matrices are constructed by the most informative measurements selected by sequential feature selection from each power plant. Then, the Mahalanobis matrix is trained such that the Mahalanobis distance between the MTSs from the same class (i.e., with the same FO source location) are minimized and from different classes (i.e., with different FO source locations) are maximized. This allows MTSs to be classified by classifiers with class membership corresponding to the location of each FO source. To meet the runtime requirements of online matching, class templates are constructed to reduce data size and improve matching efficiency. To account for uncertainty in identifying the exact beginning of an FO event, dynamic time warping is used to align the out-of-sync MTSs. IEEE 39bus and WECC 179bus systems are used for algorithm development and validation. Simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm meets online operation runtime requirement with high accuracy using misaligned data sets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impact of Retiring Synchronous Fossil Fuel Generators on Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Western Interconnection

To facilitate the decarbonization of the power grid, fossil-fuel-based synchronous generators are gradually being retired and replaced by inverter-interfaced renewable energy resources. As synchronous machines get displaced, the characteristics of inter-area oscillation modes in electrical interconnections will change. This paper describes a model-based study of the impact of the retirement of synchronous fossil-fuel generators on the oscillatory characteristics of the US Western Interconnection (WI). Results show that if fossil-fuel-based synchronous machines are replaced by grid-forming inverters, then dominant inter-area modes seen in the WI today will change. New inter-area modes may appear due to the electromechanical energy exchange among remaining hydropower generators clustered in geographical proximity in the northwestern part of the WI. This observation indicates that the evolution in modal properties needs to be closely tracked as the resource mix in electrical interconnections changes.

grid forming inverter, wide area oscillation, Inte↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Axially-deformed solution of the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov equations using the transformed harmonic oscillator basis (IV) HFBTHO (v4.0): A new version of the program

We describe the new version 4.0 of the code HFBTHO that solves the nuclear Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov problem by using the deformed harmonic oscillator basis in cylindrical coordinates. In the new version, we have implemented the restoration of rotational, particle number, and reflection symmetry for even-even nuclei. The restoration of rotational symmetry does not require using bases closed under rotation. Furthermore, we added the SeaLL1 functional and improved the calculation of the Coulomb potential. Finally, we refactored the code to facilitate maintenance and future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aeroelastic oscillations of a pitching flexible wing with structural geometric nonlinearities: Theory and numerical simulation

In this paper, we focus on the derivation of an analytical model of the aeroelastic dynamics of an elastically mounted flexible wing. This equations of motion obtained serve to help understand the behaviour of the aeroelastic wind tunnel setup in question, which consists of a rectangular wing with a uniform NACA 0012 airfoil profile, whose base is free to rotate rigidly about a longitudinal axis. Of particular interest are the structural geometric nonlinearities primarily introduced by the coupling between the rigid body pitch degree-of-freedom and the continuous system. A coupled system of partial differential equations (PDEs) coupled with an ordinary differential equation (ODE) describing axial-bending-bending-torsion-pitch motion is derived using Hamilton's principle. A finite dimensional approximation of the system of coupled differential equations is obtained using the Galerkin method, leading to a system of coupled nonlinear ODEs. Subsequently, these nonlinear ODEs are solved numerically using Houbolt's method. The results that are obtained are verified by comparison with the results obtained by direct integration of the equations of motion using a finite difference scheme. Adopting a linear unsteady aerodynamic model, it is observed that the system undergoes coalescence flutter due to coupling between the rigid body pitch rotation dominated mode and the first flapwise bending dominated mode. Finally, the behaviour of the limit cycle oscillations is primarily influenced by the structural geometric nonlinear terms in the coupled system of PDEs and ODE.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Performance of the Second-Generation Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

Recent studies in wave energy have highlighted the need for a structured innovation approach in wave energy converter (WEC) design because cost-of-energy estimates have remained high. One specific innovation being investigated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory is WEC geometry control, which uses control surfaces in combination with an oscillating surge WEC (OSWEC) to increase device availability and power generation while limiting structural costs. This study performs the first analysis of annual performance for a novel OSWEC with geometry control to understand how the geometry control affects availability, annual power generation, and structural loadings like the power-take-off (PTO) torque or surge foundation force. Device hydrodynamic coefficients are calculated using linear potential theory for six geometry configurations. A nonideal PTO system is assumed and quadratic viscous damping losses are considered. Annual performance is evaluated and compared for three U.S. wave energy sites. The WEC geometry and PTO system are controlled on a sea-state basis to optimize for power capture while remaining under limits set on motion amplitude and structural loads. Results indicate that geometry control can increase availability up to 25 days in an average year depending on design limits, increase average power generation, and significantly reduce peak structural loads.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrodynamics and Load Shedding Behavior of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC)

In order to improve their long-term viability, wave energy converters (WECs) need to be able to shed loads when a threshold wave condition is exceeded. As shown by Tom et al. (2016) [1], provision of adjustable flaps within the body of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) allows wave energy to pass through the device. A control system may then be able to open and close the flaps when waves approaching the device exceed preset thresholds. The variable-geometry OSWEC (VG-OSWEC) concept studied in this paper is a bottom-hinged, rectangular wave paddle with five flaps of elliptical cross-section embedded into the face of the paddle. System ID tests were conducted on this VG-OSWEC device at a 1:14 scale in a wave basin. Free decay tests showed that the damping was distinctly nonlinear when the flaps were fully open, and the natural frequency increased by 40% when compared with the flaps in a fully closed configuration. Tests with regular wave conditions were used to develop the response amplitude operator for the rotational motion about the hinge. These response amplitude operator results when compared with numerical simulations run using WEC-Sim/WAMIT and ANSYS AQWA, show strong agreement with the flap open and closed conditions. The regular-wave condition measurements also show that the wave excitation moment about the hinge was reduced by up to 60% when the flaps were fully open. The experiments serve to demonstrate the potential of the variable geometry design to shed loads and survive harsh ocean environments.

load shedding↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of computational methods for studying oscillating water columns – the Navier-Stokes based equation approach

This review evaluates the state-of-the-practice numerical tools used to predict the performance of Oscillating Water Column (OWC). The OWC is a widely studied Wave Energy Converter that provides a reliable form of renewable form of electricity that can potentially meet global energy needs. However, the fluid-flow phenomena affecting its hydrodynamic performance are not fully understood. While there has been the successful full-scale deployment of OWCs, various computational methods are being explored to optimize this technology. Potential flow theory is commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of OWCs; however, this assumption tends to over-predict the hydrodynamic performance. Recently, numerical studies using a diverse set of commercial, open-source, or in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) and Large-Eddy Simulation codes show a better comparison to available experimental results but are computationally expensive. ANSYS Fluent was found to be the most widely used CFD code applied to the study of the OWCs, with a high degree of accuracy in terms of experimental validation of numerical results.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Four Theories of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract Studies of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture‐mode theory, gravity‐wave theory, and trio‐interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

Climate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high-emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vertically Resolved Analysis of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlights the Role of Convective Transport of Moist Static Energy

We simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over an aquaplanet with uniform surface temperature using the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF). The model produces MJO-like features that have a similar spatial structure and propagation behavior to the observed MJO. To explore the processes involved in the propagation and maintenance of these MJO-like features, we perform a vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) analysis for the MJO (Yao et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-20-0254.1). Unlike the column-integrated MSE analysis, our method emphasizes the local production of MSE variance and quantifies how individual physical processes amplify and propagate the MJO's characteristic vertical structure. We find that radiation, convection, and boundary layer (BL) processes all contribute to maintaining the MJO, balanced by the large-scale MSE transport. Furthermore, large-scale dynamics, convection, and BL processes all contribute to the propagation of the MJO, while radiation slows the propagation. Additionally, we perform mechanism-denial experiments to examine the role of radiation and associated feedbacks in simulating the MJO. We find that the MJO can still self-emerge and maintain its characteristic structures without radiative feedbacks. This study highlights the role of convective MSE transport in the MJO dynamics, which was overlooked in the column-integrated MSE analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗