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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters for nonlinear site response analyses: Introducing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique

This study quantifies the effects of epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters on nonlinear (NL) site response analysis (SRA) results, validated against the data recorded at a well-instrumented geotechnical downhole array located in Japan. To this end, a one-dimensional soil column model of the Service Hall Array (SHA) near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is developed using the finite element (FE) program LS-DYNA. The dynamic stress–strain relationship is characterized by a modified two-stage hyperbolic (MTH) NL backbone curve formulation capable of capturing soil behavior at both small- and large-shear strains. The model is then validated against the ground motion recordings to capture the model bias. The uncertainties associated with the shear-wave velocity profile (a small-strain soil property) and soil shear strength (a large-strain soil property) are incorporated in NL SRA to quantify their separate and joint randomization effects on the results. This study proposes using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method as an efficient alternative to commonly used methods, such as Standard Monte Carlo (SMC), to account for uncertainty propagation in such reliability analysis. Both low-intensity and design-level records from the recordings at the SHA are applied to study the contribution of the small- and large-strain NL dynamic soil properties. Results from 46,200 NL FE analyses (23,100 per input motion) are presented. Measured and predicted site response, using recorded ground motions at this downhole array, is compared to assess the significance of soil parameter uncertainty on the observed ground motion dispersions. It is demonstrated that increasing the number of soft realizations and implementing higher level earthquake intensity lead to higher ground motion dispersion. Unlike past studies in randomization of Vs profiles with the SMC method, the LHS method is shown to have no significant effect on the predicted median surface response spectra and amplification factors (AFs) for this case study.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three Delayed Critical 15-Inch-Diameter Interacting Enriched (93.14) Uranium Metal Cylinders Without Moderator and Reflector

This report documents very accurately the configuration and the materials for experiments with three unmoderated, unreflected, interacting, coaxial, highly enriched, 15-in.-diameter, uranium metal cylinders performed at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF) in August and September 1963 and described in logbook E 20 associated with experiments in the East cell of ORCEF. The information is sufficiently accurate that it can be used as the basis for preparation of benchmarks for International Criticality Safety Benchmark Program (ICSBEP) at Idaho National laboratory. The thickness of the cylinders was varied and the spacing between them was adjusted to achieve a delayed critical configuration. The average enrichment of the uranium metal was 94.14 wt. % 235U. The heights of the 15-in.-diameter, equal-height cylinders varied from 1-1/8to 2.00 inches. All interacting cylinders were assembled coaxially with their flat faces parallel and their combined masses varied between 182 and 325 kilograms of HEU metal. The data from these six experiments described are judged to be acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the ICSBEP and EURATOM’s Nuclear Energy Agency nuclear criticality safety benchmark program, once the uncertainty analysis is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this enriched uranium metal at ORCEF, it is expected that the uncertainties in measured keff could be as low as ± 0.0002.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-burnup Experiments in Reactivity Initiated Accidents (HERA)

High-burnup Experiments in Reactivity-initiated Accidents (HERA) is a joint experimental program (JEEP) operating within the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA’s) framework for irradiation experiments (FIDES). HERA is dedicated to the understanding of light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance at high burnup under reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA). In-pile RIA experiments have been performed on high-burnup fuels (e.g., above 60 gigawatt days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]) in the CABRI reactor at the Cadarache site in southern France, and the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan. However, most of these experiments have taken place with heavily corroded Zircaloy claddings with pulse widths that are narrower (e.g., 5 ms – 30 ms full-width-half-max [FWHM]) than what would be likely in a commercial LWR (e.g., 30 ms – 80 ms FWHM). A few tests were performed in the CABRI facility with FWHM up to 76 ms, though only one “blistered” rod experienced cladding failure. Heavy waterside corrosion and narrow pulse widths are both known to increase the vulnerability of LWR fuel to pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). The HERA proposal is designed to: (1) quantify the impact of pulse width on fuel performance, offering new insight into the applicability of existing data; (2) generate new data on high burnup fuel under pulse conditions prototypic of LWRs; (3) quantify the additional margin provided by modern cladding alloys to PCMI failure limits; and (4) offer improved data for modelers using specially designed tests that eliminate key uncertainties in high-burnup fuel tests.

(HERA)↗
DOE OSTI2023

MatLib-1.2: Nuclear Material Properties Library

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the US commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material proper- ties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.2, which was updated from MatLib-1.1 to include cleanup of the code for streamlined calls to MatLib from the main FAST source code, and to enable easier readability of the code by developers that maintain and enhance the FAST code. The results of MatLib did not change between MatLib-1.1 and MatLib-1.2; however, the source code changes warranted incrementing the minor numbering of the software version number. The changes may result in faster execution times of FAST-1.2 as compared to FAST-1.1. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear charge radii of germanium isotopes around N = 40

Collinear laser spectroscopy measurements were performed on 68−74 Ge isotopes (Z=32) at ISOLDE-CERN, by probing the 4s 2 4p 2 3 P 1 → 4s 2 4p5s 3 P$^{o}_{1}$ atomic transition (269~nm) of germanium. Nuclear charge radii are determined via the measured isotope shifts, revealing a larger local variation than the neighboring isotopic chains. Nuclear density functional theory with the Fayans functionals Fy(Δr,HFB) and Fy(IVP), and the SV-min Skyrme describes the experimental data for the differential charge radii δ⟨r 2 ⟩ and charge radii R c within the theoretical uncertainties. The observed large variation in the charge radii of germanium isotopes is better accounted for by theoretical models incorporating ground state quadrupole correlations. This suggests that the polarization effects due to pairing and deformation contribute to the observed large odd-even staggering in the charge radii of the Ge isotopic chain.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Multiphysics Code Coupling for Cladding Surface Thermocouples During Two-Phase Heat Transfer from Nuclear Fuel

Transient testing of nuclear fuel involves the evaluation of fuel performance under off-normal and accident conditions and is essential for proving design performance. Instrumentation included in such experiments commonly includes thermocouples attached to the outer surface of the cladding to provide temperature measurements throughout the transient. However, the presence of thermocouples on the cladding surface can alter the local heat transfer characteristics with the surrounding coolant. These localized effects can influence the temperature of the nearby cladding surface and introduce uncertainties in interpreting the thermocouple data. Understanding the impact of thermocouples attached to the outer surface of the cladding is crucial for accurate data interpretation as well as its effect on the thermomechanical behavior of the cladding. This paper presents a novel methodology for simulating the impact of outer cladding thermocouples during transient testing of nuclear fuels. The simulation framework leverages the thermal-hydraulic capabilities of RELAP5-3D coupled to the BISON fuel performance code through the RELAPCouplingApp interface. The methodology is compared against Accident Tolerant Fuel Reactivity Initiated Accident-1-E experiment performed at Idaho National Laboratory. The results reveal approximately 100°C difference between thermocouple-altered temperature and virgin cladding surface. The model overpredicts surface rewet time due to conservative correlations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pressure Composition Temperature Curves of Hydride Moderators

Microreactors are compact and mobile reactors which operate at low power and high temperatures. These reactors generate heat which is then converted to electricity for use in a variety of special purpose applications. Microreactors are of interest due to their light weight, compact size and the ability to meet the needs for high energy in difficult or remote areas. Metal hydrides have been studied for nuclear and aviation applications. The emergence of microreactors the interest in metal hydrides is significant due to their ability to moderate neutrons in a light weight and solid form. In case of an off normal event, more accurate data is needed for the absorption/desorption rates of the hydrides due to the high uncertainties on hydrogen redistribution in the moderator. The literature shows considerable discrepancies in the PCT curves for yttrium and zirconium. The uncertainty is much more notable at higher stoichiometries of the hydride phase at high temperature. To understand the in-pile performance, a detailed understating of the impurities and microstructure is needed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status Update on the High Precision Isotopic Measurements on High Burnup LWR Fuel in 2020

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is currently investigating the feasibility of directly disposing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository. Criticality during the repository performance period (10,000 years or more) is one of the major concerns related to direct disposal of DPCs, specifically as the system undergoes degradation in the repository environment and timeframe. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing an as-loaded criticality analysis methodology using full (actinides + fission products) burnup credit that exploits the inherent criticality margin associated with actual canister-specific loading configuration. Burnup credit criticality analysis requires validation of the depletion/decay codes used to generate the burned isotopic inventory of an assembly by comparing the code-predicted inventory with experimentally determined isotopic data. Currently, isotopic measurement data for boiling water reactors (BWR) SNF are limited, and additional measurements will be highly beneficial for BWR burnup credit analysis, which is essential to demonstrate disposability of BWR DPCs. Moreover, new pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples of isotopic measurements will expand the PWR sample population and consequently will greatly improve sample statistics. In turn, this will reduce uncertainty in the computational determination of the isotopic composition of commercial SNF and eliminate additional penalties currently used for lack of data. As part of the isotopic analysis task, eight diverse, high burnup (HBU) samples from several PWR rods are being dissolved and isotopically analyzed to provide high-quality measurement data for PWR SNF to reducing the uncertainties associated with PWR isotopic depletion validation. The isotopics of interest focus on nuclides important to burnup credit, shielding, and decay heat in PWR SNF. Additionally, eight high burnup BWR fuel samples from the Limerick nuclear power plant have been identified for measurement to support reducing uncertainties associated with BWR isotopic depletion validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

WPEC SG50: Developing an Automatically Readable, Comprehensive and Curated Experimental Nuclear Reaction Database

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) subgroup (SG) 50 was formed in 2020 to develop an automatically readable, comprehensive and curated experimental nuclear reaction database. This database is called MEDUSAL (Machine-readable Experimental Data User Application & Library), and will draw from EXFOR. The EXFOR database preserves experimental nuclear reaction data true to its original documentation and information from the authors of the data. MEDUSAL will deviate from EXFOR by storing additional information from users of the data for their fields of work (evaluation, model development, validation, etc.). This includes expert judgment on the data sets, identification of data points as outliers, renormalization of the data to the newest monitor reactions, and estimations of missing uncertainty sources. The format for MEDUSAL is being developed to enable easy automatic parsing of large amounts of data. Here, we will summarize the use cases, high-level requirements and first steps towards developing the database MEDUSAL and the API to access it.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Review of thermophysical property methods applied to fueled and un-fueled molten salts

Recent investigation into designs of molten salt reactors (MSR) requires accurate data of candidate salts. Review of the literature shows lacking thermophysical (TP) property data for coolants and fuel-bearing salts of Advanced High Temperature Reactors (AHTR). Measurement uncertainties of current data are even more deficient, and this affects ongoing research where MSR modeling and testing are being performed. Melting temperature, viscosity, density, specific heat capacity, and thermal and electrical conductivity measurements are often not arranged together or discussed in great detail, especially for fuel-bearing salts. Raw data from key findings spanning over 70 years for LiF, LiF-BeF 2 , LiF-NaF-KF, KCl-MgCl 2 , KF-ZrF 4 , and NaF-KF-MgF 2 have been organized and presented here. Brief description of methods used to obtain these results, in addition to the TP data of some of these salts as fuel carriers, has also been discussed. Thermal conductivity data are particularly weak due to older, high-error measurement techniques. More recent measurement systems to evaluate salt thermal conductivity show promise for obtaining consistent absolute values. This work concludes that measurement systems such as transient hot-wire method, forced Rayleigh scattering, and laser flash analysis provide the most promise to fill these data gaps and reduce current uncertainty in thermal conductivity measurements of both fueled and un-fueled molten salts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for Critical Benchmark Creation [Slides]

During the evaluation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor operation data for critical benchmark creation, a detailed, functional SCALE model was built, and experimental data was evaluated for the creation of a critical benchmark. The estimated experimental uncertainty is about 3800 pcm, which is considered very high. The relative difference between expected and calculated keff values is about 1.5 %, also considered very high. It was concluded that a good quality critical benchmark worthy of the ICSBEP standards cannot be created from HPRR data in the present conditions. Locating the HPRR fuel to obtain an uncertainty on the density would aid in solving this issue.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

NucD-23 Nuclear Diagnostics Development: The future of neutron imaging and gamma reaction history

The Neutron Imaging team has deployed novel, active detection systems along two lines of sight at NIF. Studies aimed to characterize NIS sensitivity to implosion shape will be carried out to further extend reconstruction capabilities. Additionally, an improved camera timing system that will reduce uncertainties stemming from bang time jitter will also be fielded. The NIF GRH data recording system is more then 10 years old needs to be updated. Bandwidth and noise are a key limiting factor for improving data quality. New high bandwidth and low noise components will be tested at OMEGA in advance before fielding the components at NIF.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design of Premoderated Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiments for Validating Beryllium Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Accurate thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are essential for reliable neutron transport simulations, particularly for systems with low-energy neutrons. Pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments provide a highly sensitive platform for TSL validation but face challenges from fast neutron leakage and material constraints in nonhydrogenous targets such as beryllium. This work investigates the use of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a premoderator to reduce leakage, improve thermalization, and shorten experimental run times while preserving sensitivity to the Be TSL. Here, three premoderated configurations, encapsulation, slab, and interstitial, were evaluated using MCNP6.3® simulations with ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data. The effects of the Be TSL was quantified by comparing decay constants from simulations with and without 𝑆⁡(𝛼,𝛽) treatments for both beryllium and HDPE. The results show that premoderation enables the use of as little as 5.20% of the beryllium volume required for an unreflected geometry, achieving uncertainties below 0.5% and reducing run time by up to 72.2% in the studied configurations. The interstitial configuration achieved the best balance between low statistical uncertainty and high TSL sensitivity, outperforming the slab and encapsulation designs. These findings demonstrate that carefully optimized premoderation can significantly enhance the efficiency, feasibility, and precision of PNDA experiments for Be TSL validation.

Integral Experiments↗
DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photon strength functions and nuclear level densities: invaluable input for nucleosynthesis

The pivotal role of nuclear physics in nucleosynthesis processes is being investigated, in particular the intricate influence of photon strength functions (PSFs) and nuclear level densities (NLDs) on shaping the outcomes of the i-, r- and p-processes. Exploring diverse NLD and PSF model combinations uncovers large uncertainties for (p, γ ), (n, γ ) and ( α , γ ) rates across many regions of the nuclear chart. These lead to potentially significant abundance variations of the nucleosynthesis processes and highlight the importance of accurate experimental nuclear data. Theoretical insights and advanced experimental techniques lay the ground work for profound understanding that can be gained of nucleosynthesis mechanisms and the origin of the elements. Recent results further underscore the effect of PSF and NLD data and its contribution to understanding abundance distributions and refining knowledge of the intricate nucleosynthesis processes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The liminal position of Nuclear Physics: from hadrons to neutron stars’.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity in the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis

In this work, the multi-physics coupling of CTF-PARCS for both steady-state and transient simulations is evaluated focusing on the quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity when applied to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty safety analysis. For the steady-state, a Picard iteration approach is adopted in the coupled code while for the transient an explicit approach has been developed as a first step. The CTF-PARCS coupling is applied to the REA at HFP BOC scenario proposed in the exercise I-2c of LWR-UAM benchmark Phase III. Two different modeling choices are investigated for the nominal calculations. The first consists of including the 3D burnup information in CTF, and the second of modeling the spacers grids in both PARCS and CTF. It is observed that due to the degradation of the fuel thermal conductivity, the 3D burnup inclusion in CTF leads to significant higher centerline temperatures than the base case, with a difference up to 300 K. The spacer grids modeling shows the expected power and temperature decrease in the axial positions of the spacer grids. For the uncertainty quantification study, the multi-physics modeling including the burnup information in CTF is used. The results show that the inserted reactivity has a relative standard deviation of 13.6% mainly attributed to the nuclear data. The maximum linear power has a relative standard deviation of 16.2% due to the nuclear data as well, while the maximum centerline temperature has a relative standard deviation of 3.5% primarily caused by the fuel thermal conductivity. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the 9 $\mathrm{Be}$($n, γ$) 10 $\mathrm{Be}$ integral cross section at fission neutron energies

The 9 B neutron capture cross section has significant implications for Be materials in the nuclear industry as well as the α process in stellar nucleosynthesis. While the cross section is well constrained at thermal neutron energies, there is a lack of experimental data at higher neutron energies, and the evaluated nuclear data libraries can differ by up to two orders of magnitude. We calculate the 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross section at fission neutron energies in an effort to resolve disagreements amongst the nuclear data libraries. Foil irradiation experiments were performed using the Flattop critical assembly at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center with either the highly enriched U or Pu cores, with target foil stacks placed at multiple locations to exploit different neutron energy profiles. Accelerator mass spectrometry was used to measure the 10 Be/ 9 Be ratio in irradiated Be foils, while all other activation products were quantified through gamma spectrometry. The experiments were simulated using the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport code and combined with experimental results to determine the total neutron fluence, while the staysl-pnnl suite and fispact-ii code were used to validate the model and assess the systematic uncertainty. The new 9 Be(n, γ) 10 Be integral cross sections calculated in this work are 26.5 ± 2.2µb at 0.59 ± 0.07 MeV, 24 ± 3 µb at 0.98 ± 0.14 MeV, 21.7 ± 1.3 µb at 1.26 ± 0.11 MeV, 21.8 ± 1.4 µb at 1.32 ± 0.11 MeV, and 18.6 ± 1.1 µb at 1.46 ± 0.13 MeV. These results do not agree with integral cross sections from any of the nuclear data library evaluations. Discrepancies between the new integral cross sections reported here and the nuclear data libraries suggest a more complex cross-section structure in the MeV range which allows for more resonance contributions, and more work is needed to further constrain the evaluated cross sections.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗