Results for “Natural Probabilities” — Page 26

NASA NTRS1981

An investigation of reports of Controlled Flight Toward Terrain (CFTT)

Some 258 reports from more than 23,000 documents in the files of the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) were found to be to the hazard of flight into terrain with no prior awareness by the crew of impending disaster. Examination of the reports indicate that human error was a casual factor in 64% of the incidents in which some threat of terrain conflict was experienced. Approximately two-thirds of the human errors were attributed to controllers, the most common discrepancy being a radar vector below the Minimum Vector Altitude (MVA). Errors by pilots were of a much diverse nature and include a few instances of gross deviations from their assigned altitudes. The ground proximity warning system and the minimum safe altitude warning equipment were the initial recovery factor in some 18 serious incidents and were apparently the sole warning in six reported instances which otherwise would most probably have ended in disaster.

Porter, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Relationship of E-type Apollo asteroid 3103 (1982 BB) to the enstatite achondrite meteorites and the Hungaria asteroids

Visible and near-IR observations are reported which confirm that Apollo asteroid 3103 (1982 BB) is a high-albedo E-type object with a reflectance spectrum consistent with the iron-free silicates, primarily enstatite, present in the aubrites. Visible and thermal IR light curves indicate that 3103 is an elongated object with no evidence of substantial surface albedo variations. It is presently in an orbital resonance with earth and is probably a relatively long-lived member of the earth-approaching population. This is consistent with the relatively long cosmic ray exposure ages of the aubrites compared to other stony meteorites. The fall geometries of the aubrites are consistent with their being derived from 3103. The ubiquitous brecciated nature of the aubrites and the indications of a single parent body for nearly all these meteorite suggest that 3103 is the sole near-earth parent body of this meteorite type.

Gaffey, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Single-Shot Scalar-Triplet Measurements in High-Pressure Swirl-Stabilized Flames for Combustion Code Validation

In support of NASA ARMD's code validation project, we have made significant progress by providing the first quantitative single-shot multi-scalar data from a turbulent elevated-pressure (5 atm), swirl-stabilized, lean direct injection (LDI) type research burner operating on CH4-air using a spatially-resolved pulsed-laser spontaneous Raman diagnostic technique. The Raman diagnostics apparatus and data analysis that we present here were developed over the past 6 years at Glenn Research Center. From the Raman scattering data, we produce spatially-mapped probability density functions (PDFs) of the instantaneous temperature, determined using a newly developed low-resolution effective rotational bandwidth (ERB) technique. The measured 3-scalar (triplet) correlations, between temperature, CH4, and O2 concentrations, as well as their PDF s, also provide a high-level of detail into the nature and extent of the turbulent mixing process and its impact on chemical reactions in a realistic gas turbine injector flame at elevated pressures. The multi-scalar triplet data set presented here provides a good validation case for CFD combustion codes to simulate by providing both average and statistical values for the 3 measured scalars.

Kojima, Jun↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS1980

Xenon, osmium, and lead formed in O-shells and C-shells of massive stars

In this paper it is shown that the explosive products from O-shells of massive stars which contain Xe-124 with large overproduction factors do not contain any of the naturally occurring isotopes of Os and Pb. Further, it is shown that the explosive products from C-shells (explosive carbon burning) do contain Os and Pb along with Xe which is strongly enriched in r-Xe of anomalous isotopic composition. The composition of Os in this matter is probably s-like rather than r-like. Pb in this matter is enriched in Pb-208. The results and arguments of this paper have implications for studies of isotopic compositions of Xe, Os, and Pb in residues of the Allende and other carbonaceous chondrites.

Heymann, D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reliability analysis of External Tank Attack Ring (ETA)

The present study is restricted to External Tank Attachment Rings (ETA), but the concepts discussed are general in nature and can be applied to any structural component. The objective of this research work is to use some of the existing probabilistic methods to calculate the reliability of ETA Rings at various critical sections for the limit state of stress. This is done both in terms of the traditional probability of failure and reliability levels as well as the well known safety indices (beta) which have become a commonly accepted measure of safety.

Putcha, Chandra S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ocean time-series near Bermuda: Hydrostation S and the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic time-series study

Bermuda is the site of two ocean time-series programs. At Hydrostation S, the ongoing biweekly profiles of temperature, salinity and oxygen now span 37 years. This is one of the longest open-ocean time-series data sets and provides a view of decadal scale variability in ocean processes. In 1988, the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study began a wide range of measurements at a frequency of 14-18 cruises each year to understand temporal variability in ocean biogeochemistry. On each cruise, the data range from chemical analyses of discrete water samples to data from electronic packages of hydrographic and optics sensors. In addition, a range of biological and geochemical rate measurements are conducted that integrate over time-periods of minutes to days. This sampling strategy yields a reasonable resolution of the major seasonal patterns and of decadal scale variability. The Sargasso Sea also has a variety of episodic production events on scales of days to weeks and these are only poorly resolved. In addition, there is a substantial amount of mesoscale variability in this region and some of the perceived temporal patterns are caused by the intersection of the biweekly sampling with the natural spatial variability. In the Bermuda time-series programs, we have added a series of additional cruises to begin to assess these other sources of variation and their impacts on the interpretation of the main time-series record. However, the adequate resolution of higher frequency temporal patterns will probably require the introduction of new sampling strategies and some emerging technologies such as biogeochemical moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles.

Michaels, Anthony F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Apollo 12 ropy glasses revisited

We analyzed ropy glasses from Apollo 12 soils 12032 and 12033 by a variety of techniques including SEM/EDX, electron microprobe analysis, INAA, and Ar-39-Ar-40 age dating. The ropy glasses have potassium rare earth elements phosphorous (KREEP)-like compositions different from those of local Apollo 12 mare soils; it is likely that the ropy glasses are of exotic origin. Mixing calculations indicate that the ropy glasses formed from a liquid enriched in KREEP and that the ropy glass liquid also contained a significant amount of mare material. The presence of solar Ar and a trace of regolith-derived glass within the ropy glasses are evidence that the ropy glasses contain a small regolith component. Anorthosite and crystalline breccia (KREEP) clasts occur in some ropy glasses. We also found within these glasses clasts of felsite (fine-grained granitic fragments) very similar in texture and composition to the larger Apollo 12 felsites, which have a Ar-39-Ar-40 degassing age of 800 +/- 15 Ma. Measurements of 39-Ar-40-Ar in 12032 ropy glass indicate that it was degassed at the same time as the large felsite although the ropy glass was not completely degassed. The ropy glasses and felsites, therefore, probably came from the same source. Most early investigators suggested that the Apollo 12 ropy glasses were part of the ejecta deposited at the Apollo 12 site from the Copernicus impact. Our new data reinforce this model. If these ropy glasses are from Copernicus, they provide new clues to the nature of the target material at the Copernicus site, a part of the Moon that has not been sampled directly.

Wentworth, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Integrity of Ceramic Parts Predicted When Loads and Temperatures Fluctuate Over Time

Brittle materials are being used, and being considered for use, for a wide variety of high performance applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts for unmanned aerial vehicles, auxiliary power units, and distributed power generation. Other applications include thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In order for these high-technology ceramics to be used successfully for structural applications that push the envelope of materials capabilities, design engineers must consider that brittle materials are designed and analyzed differently than metallic materials. Unlike ductile metals, brittle materials display a stochastic strength response because of the combination of low fracture toughness and the random nature of the size, orientation, and distribution of inherent microscopic flaws. This plus the fact that the strength of a component under load may degrade over time because of slow crack growth means that a probabilistic-based life-prediction methodology must be used when the tradeoffs of failure probability, performance, and useful life are being optimized. The CARES/Life code (which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center) predicts the probability of ceramic components failing from spontaneous catastrophic rupture when these components are subjected to multiaxial loading and slow crack growth conditions. Enhancements to CARES/Life now allow for the component survival probability to be calculated when loading and temperature vary over time.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that 25.5 (sup +0.7, sub -0.7) of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. 'This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that 11.7 (sup +0.3, sub -0.3) of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for ~3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of ~ 125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

Thomas Barclay↗

NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗

NASA NTRS1971

Final Environmental Impact Statement for Langley

The Langley Research Center is described, together with the nature of its activities, from which it can be seen that the Center is basically not a major pollution source. Geographical, geological, and climatic charateristics of the site are also described. inasmuch as they influence both the choice of disposal methods and the environmental effects of the pollutants. The known or probable pollution sources at the Center are described. Where the intensities of these sources might exceed the recommended guide-lines, the corrective actions that have been taken or are being taken are described. The entire inventory of pollution sources and control methods is summarized in an appendix.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Phase properties of multicomponent superposition states in various amplifiers

There have been theoretical studies for generation of optical coherent superposition states. Once the superposition state is generated it is natural to ask if it is possible to amplify it without losing the nonclassical properties of the field state. We consider amplification of the superposition state in various amplifiers such as a sub-Poissonian amplifier, a phase-sensitive amplifier and a classical amplifier. We show the evolution of phase probability distribution functions in the amplifier.

Lee, Kang-Soo↗

NASA NTRS1994

A phyllosilicate-sulfide vein in Kaidun

A fragment of a carbonaceous chondrite (#53.12, maximal dimension about 2 mm) containing a phyllosilicate-sulfide vein was found during an inspection of small pieces of the Kaidun meteorite. Phyllosilicate veins are apparently rare in carbonaceous chondrites and have so far only been reported from the Y82162 CI chondrite. In hand sample the vein was visible on two perpendicular faces. The polished section prepared from one side displays a complex structure. A single vein, 150 microns in width, bifurcates, and each branch narrows toward a large rounded object (RO). The section contains abundant ROs, most of them less than or equal to 100 microns in diameter. The vein has sharp contacts to the surrounding matrix, whereas the RO contacts are diffuse. The phyllosilicate in the main vein has a massive texture along the contact, which becomes platy toward the vein center where the crystals protrude into an open space. The texture of the largest RO resembles that of a barred olivine (BO) chondrule. Some of the smaller ROs also texturally resemble chondrules. The BO chondrule contains rounded sulfide-silicate objects and small metal grains covered by oxides. Phyllosilicates of the main vein consist mainly of serpentine. The phyllosilicate near the contact with the matrix has low contents of minor elements and a high Mg/Fe ratio. The composition changes in a regular manner toward the center: Al, Na, Ca, Ni, and S increase, indicating increasing amounts of sulfates admixed. The phyllosilicate vein could only have formed after a substantial rock was formed. Mechanical stress probably opened a crack that was subsequently filled by phyllosilicate, pyrrhotite, and finally by a (Fe,Mg)-sulfate. The source of the matter mobilized to form the vein could have been within the rock itself or outside. No compositional or mineralogical zoning is apparent at the vein-rock contacts. The nature of the transporting agent (liquid H2O or vapor) must also remain an enigma. M. Zolensky has recently observed similar phyllosilicate-filled veins in dark, wet clasts in the Al Rais CR chondrite.

Ivanov, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The nature of cometary dust from remote sensing

Observational data on the thermal emission from cometary dust grains and theoretical models constructed to explain them are reviewed. Consideration is given to grain temperature, the size distribution of the grains, thermal-emission models, the silicate component, dust-grain albedo, and icy grains; model predictions and observations are compared in graphs. It is pointed out that no unambiguous detection of icy grains has been achieved, probably because these grains are vaporized within a few hundred km of the nucleus when the comet is within 2.5 AU of the sun.

Hanner, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Progress in modeling atmospheric propagation of sonic booms

The improved simulation of sonic boom propagation through the real atmosphere requires greater understanding of how the transient acoustic pulses popularly termed sonic booms are affected by humidity and turbulence. A realistic atmosphere is invariably somewhat turbulent, and may be characterized by an ambient fluid velocity v and sound speed c that vary from point to point. The absolute humidity will also vary from point to point, although possibly not as irregularly. What is ideally desired is a relatively simple scheme for predicting the probable spreads in key sonic boom signature parameters. Such parameters could be peak amplitudes, rise times, or gross quantities obtainable by signal processing that correlate well with annoyance or damage potential. The practical desire for the prediction scheme is that it require a relatively small amount of knowledge, possibly of a statistical nature, concerning the atmosphere along, the propagation path from the aircraft to the ground. The impact of such a scheme, if developed, implemented, and verified, would be that it would give the persons who make planning decisions a tool for assessing the magnitude of environmental problems that might result from any given overflight or sequence of overflights. The technical approach that has been followed by the author and some of his colleagues is to formulate a hierarchy of simple approximate models based on fundamental physical principles and then to test these models against existing data. For propagation of sonic booms and of other types of acoustic pulses in nonturbulent model atmospheres, there exists a basic overall theoretical model that has evolved as an outgrowth of geometrical acoustics. This theoretical model depicts the sound as propagating within ray tubes in a manner analogous to sound in a waveguide of slowly varying cross-section. Propagation along the ray tube is quasi-one-dimensional, and a wave equation for unidirectional wave propagation is used. A nonlinear term is added to this equation to account for nonlinear steepening, and the formulation has been carried through to allow for spatially varying sound speed, ambient density, and ambient wind velocities. The model intrinsically neglects diffraction, so it cannot take into account what has previously been mentioned in the literature as possibly important mechanisms for turbulence-related distortion. The model as originally developed could predict an idealized N-waveform which often agrees with data in terms of peak amplitude and overall positive phase duration. It is possible, moreover, to develop simple methods based on the physics of relaxation processes for incorporating molecular relaxation into the quasi-one-dimensional model of nonlinear propagation along ray tubes.

Pierce, Allan D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Award-Winning CARES/Life Ceramics Durability Evaluation Software Is Making Advanced Technology Accessible

Products made from advanced ceramics show great promise for revolutionizing aerospace and terrestrial propulsion and power generation. However, ceramic components are difficult to design because brittle materials in general have widely varying strength values. The CARES/Life software developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center eases this by providing a tool that uses probabilistic reliability analysis techniques to optimize the design and manufacture of brittle material components. CARES/Life is an integrated package that predicts the probability of a monolithic ceramic component's failure as a function of its time in service. It couples commercial finite element programs--which resolve a component's temperature and stress distribution - with reliability evaluation and fracture mechanics routines for modeling strength - limiting defects. These routines are based on calculations of the probabilistic nature of the brittle material's strength.

Source record↗