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At least 469 records · Page 26

Herschel Observations of the Debris Disc Around HIP 92043

Context: Typical debris discs are composed of particles ranging from several micron sized dust grains to kilometer-sized asteroidal bodies, and their infrared emission peaks at wavelengths 60-100 microns. Recent Herschel DUNES (Dust Around Nearby Stars) observations have identified several debris discs around nearby Sun-like stars (F, G and K spectral type) with significant excess emission only at 160 microns. Aims: We observed HIP 92043 (110 Her, HD 173667) at far-infrared and sub-millimetre wavelengths with Herschel PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver).Identification of the presence of excess emission from HIP 92043 and the origin and physical properties of any excess was undertaken through analysis of its spectral energy distribution (SED) and the PACS images. Methods: The PACS and SPIRE images were produced using the HIPE (Herschel Interactive Processing Environment) photProject map maker routine. Fluxes were measured using aperture photometry. A stellar photosphere model was scaled to optical and near infrared photometry and subtracted from the far-infared and sub-mm fluxes to determine the presence of excess emission. Source radial profiles were fitted using a 2D Gaussian and compared to a PSF (Point Spread Function) model based on Herschel observations of alpha Boo to check for extended emission. Results: Clear excess emission from HIP 92043 was observed at 70 and 100 microns. Marginal excess was observed at 160 and 250 microns.Analysis of the images reveals that the source is extended at 160 microns. A fit to the source SED is inconsistent with a photosphere and single temperature black body. Conclusions: The excess emission from HIP 92043 is consistent with the presence of an unresolved circumstellar debris disc at 70and 100 microns, with low probability of background contamination. The extended 160 micron emission may be interpreted as an additional cold component to the debris disc or as the result of background contamination along the line of sight. The nature of the 160 micron excess cannot be determined absolutely from the available data, but we favour a debris disc interpretation, drawing parallels with previously identified cold disc sources in the DUNES sample.

debris discs↗

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems: Potential Failure Modes and Failure Mitigation Strategies

Electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems hold great potential for the reduction of aircraft fuel burn, emissions, and noise. Currently, NASA and other organizations are actively working to identify and mature technologies necessary to bring EAP designs to reality. A requirement for the development of any civil aircraft and its systems is to ensure that potential hazards in the design are identified and appropriately mitigated to ensure that the system is safe. During aircraft development, a system safety assessment that consists of a functional hazard assessment is conducted to identify all potential failure conditions of each function, and classify those failures according to the severity of their effects on the aircraft or its occupants. The more severe a function's failure condition classification, the greater the development assurance level required for the function to ensure that the probability of the hazard is acceptably low. Today, aircraft engines and their control systems receive type certificate approval as a stand-alone system to signify their airworthiness. However, the complex coupling and distributed nature of EAP designs are expected to place added challenges on the certification of these systems. This presentation will provide an initial high-level review of the potential failure modes and hazards posed by a generic EAP system along with potential mitigation strategies for those failures. The EAP system is assumed to be a hybrid design consisting of gas turbine engines, mechanical drives, electric machines, power electronics and distribution systems, energy storage devices, and motor driven propulsors. The functionality provided by each of these EAP subsystems will be discussed along with the potential failure modes they may encounter. This will include a discussion of coupled failure effects, where a fault in one EAP subsystem effects the operation of other subsystems in the architecture. Next, potential failure mitigation strategies are discussed including both software-based and hardware-based mitigation strategies. The presentation will conclude with an example evaluation of the potential failure modes and mitigation strategies for a concept EAP system proposed by NASA.

Simon, Donald L.↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The problem of the structure of the surface of the lunar maria

The results are described of geological and morphological interpretation of large-scale photographs of the surface of lunar maria. A morphological classification is proposed for small craters. It is shown that the classification of a crater in a given morphological category, reflecting the degree of its morphological maturity, is determined by the age of the given crater. A check on the nature of distribution of small craters, as done on the basis of the nearest neighbor method, show that the distribution is governed by a near-random law. It is found that variations of the probability density function for the craters conform to a normal distribution law. An empirical relation is found for the coefficient of variation as a function of crater diameter and the dimensions of the area on which the counts are made. The rockfalls near craters of various morphological classes are described.

Florenskiy, K. P.↗

Ion implantation effects in 'cosmic' dust grains

Cosmic dust grains, whatever their origin may be, have probably suffered a complex sequence of events including exposure to high doses of low-energy nuclear particles and cycles of turbulent motions. High-voltage electron microscope observations of micron-sized grains either naturally exposed to space environmental parameters on the lunar surface or artificially subjected to space simulated conditions strongly suggest that such events could drastically modify the mineralogical composition of the grains and considerably ease their aggregation during collisions at low speeds. Furthermore, combined mass spectrometer and ionic analyzer studies show that small carbon compounds can be both synthesized during the implantation of a mixture of low-energy D, C, N ions in various solids and released in space by ion sputtering.

Bibring, J. P.↗

Developments in new aircraft tire tread materials

Comparative laboratory and field tests were conducted on experimental and state-of-the-art aircraft tire tread materials in a program aimed at seeking new elastomeric materials which would provide improved aircraft tire tread wear, traction, and blowout resistance in the interests of operational safety and economy. The experimental stock was formulated of natural rubber and amorphous vinyl polybutadiene to provide high thermal-oxidative resistance, a characteristic pursued on the premise that thermal oxidation is involved both in the normal abrasion or wear of tire treads and probably in the chain of events leading to blowout failures. Results from the tests demonstrate that the experimental stock provided better heat buildup (hysteresis) and fatigue properties, at least equal wet and dry traction, and greater wear resistance than the state-of-the-art stock.

Yager, T. J.↗

A secondary origin for the central plateau of Hebes Chasma

Hebes Chasma, one of the northern members of the Valles Marineris, can be divided into three physiographic provinces; chasma walls, chasma floor, and central plateau. Theories of origin of the 5-kilometer-high central plateau include (1) the plateau is an eroded remnant of the surrounding plains, and (2) the plateau is a secondary feature deposited after formation of the chasma. A secondary eolian or pyroclastic origin best explains the morphology of the plateau. The chasma probably formed by collapse of a pre-existing graben that was widened by landslides and subsequently filled with eolian or pyroclastic material. Continued mass wasting isolated the plateau from the chasma walls. The enclosed nature of Hebes Chasma may have inhibited eolian erosion and transport within the trough, so that the relatively fresh appearance of the plateau has been preserved.

Peterson, C.↗

Size estimates of Titan's aerosols based on Voyager high-phase-angle images

Limits on the physical properties of the scattering haze near the top of Titan's atmosphere are derived from data obtained from seven high-phase-angle images from Voyager 1 and 2. From the ratio of the intensities observed at two different high phase angles, an estimate can be made of the forward-scattering lobe of the single-scattering phase function. Comparing the forward-scattering estimate with diffraction lobes from particles of different radii, it is concluded that the average radius of the particles found in the upper few tenths of an optical depth exceeds 0.19 micron. Judging from data observed at four different phase angles, the haze particles probably have a refractive index near 1.6 and a mean size of about 0.5 micron, if the widths of their diffraction peaks are close to those for equal-volume spheres. However, the highly polarizing nature of the particles over a broad wavelength-bandpass (Tomasko and Smith, 1982; West et al, 1983) combined with their forward-scattering behavior makes it very unlikely that the particles are spherical. The nonsphericity contributes to the uncertainty about the radii of the particles, but it is thought that the average radius is several tenths of a micron.

Rages, K.↗

Description of quantum noise by a Langevin equation

General features of the quantum noise problem expressed as the equations of motion for a particle coupled to a set of oscillators are investigated analytically. Account is taken of the properties of the companion oscillators by formulating quantum statistical correlation Langevin equations (QSLE). The frequency of the oscillators is then retained as a natural cut-off for the quantum noise. The QSLE is further extended to encompass the particle trajectory and is bounded by initial and final states of the oscillator. The states are expressed as the probability of existence at the moment of particle collision that takes the oscillator into a final state. Two noise sources then exist: a statistical uncertainty of the initial state and the quantum dynamical uncertainty associated with a transition from the initial to final state. Feynman's path-integral formulation is used to characterize the functional of the particle trajectory, which slows the particle. It is shown that the energy loss may be attributed to friction, which satisfies energy conservation laws.

Metiu, H.↗

Initial conditions and quantum cosmology

A theory of initial conditions is necessary for a complete explanation of the presently observed large scale structural features of the universe, and a quantum theory of cosmology is probably needed for its formulation. The kinematics of quantum cosmology are reviewed, and some candidates for a law of initial conditions are discussed. The proposal that the quantum state of a closed universe is the natural analog of the ground state for closed cosmologies and is specified by a Euclidean sum over histories is sketched. When implemented in simple models, this proposal is consistent with the most important large-scale observations.

Hartle, James B.↗

An alternative binary model for SN1987A

A class of models for SN1987A is proposed in which the blue supergiant Sk -69 deg 202 is the progenitor and where the supernova evolution of this star is strongly influenced by the accretion of matter from a companion star which was initially the more massive star. Binary stellar evolution calculations show that a model of this type can naturally explain why the apparent progenitor was a blue supergiant rather than a red one. The system became unbound after the supernova event, and the presence of a normal or neutron-star companion will probably be revealed a few years after the explosion. A model of this type can explain all the major observational features of SN1987A and also provides plausible explanations for many of its anomalies.

Podsiadlowski, PH.↗

(abstract) Cometary Particles as a Tracer of Jupiter's Stratospheric Circulation

The impact of fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter's atmosphere in July 1994 may provide an unprecedented opportunity to study Jupiter's stratospheric circulation. Recent calculations by Z. Sekanina predict that much of the comet material will be deposited in Jupiter's stratosphere. If so, and if the material is deposited in a confined region (10 000 km or less, horizontally) we can expect a situation analogous to an El Chichon or Pinatubo event for the terrestrial stratosphere. Initially the volatile material will be vaporized and will rapidly recondense. The large ice crystals and dust particles will rain out and be lost to the troposphere. The cloud of small particles which remain may have settling times of more than a year. These submicron to micron particles would probably be easily seen in methane filter images in the near-IR, and possibly in the ultraviolet. An observational program to monitor the dispersal of this cloud or clouds would reveal much about the nature of the circulation. Some predictions about the meridional evolution of the clouds can be made already, based on the meridional circulation model of West et al. unless the impact itself significantly disrupts the annual average circulation well after the initial transients die away.

comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 impact Jupiter stratosphere↗

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Updated Efficiency Analysis Utilizing a Highly Parallel Simulation Approach

This paper provides an updated efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme. LightForce aims to prevent collisions on warning by utilizing photon pressure from ground based, commercial off the shelf lasers. Past research has shown that a few ground-based systems consisting of 10 kilowatt class lasers directed by 1.5 meter telescopes with adaptive optics could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. Our simulation approach utilizes the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue in LEO for a given day as initial input. Least-squares fitting of a TLE time series is used for an improved orbit estimate. We then calculate the probability of collision for all LEO objects in the catalogue for a time step of the simulation. The conjunctions that exceed a threshold probability of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the probability of collision and evaluate the efficiency of the system. This paper describes new simulations with three updated aspects: 1) By utilizing a highly parallel simulation approach employing hundreds of processors, we have extended our analysis to a much broader dataset. The simulation time is extended to one year. 2) We analyze not only the efficiency of LightForce on conjunctions that naturally occur, but also take into account conjunctions caused by orbit perturbations due to LightForce engagements. 3) We use a new simulation approach that is regularly updating the LightForce engagement strategy, as it would be during actual operations. In this paper we present our simulation approach to parallelize the efficiency analysis, its computational performance and the resulting expected efficiency of the LightForce collision avoidance system. Results indicate that utilizing a network of four LightForce stations with 20 kilowatt lasers, 85% of all conjunctions with a probability of collision Pc > 10 (sup -6) can be mitigated.

conjunction analysis↗

Atomic structure and Mott nature of the insulating charge density wave phase of 1T-TaS 2

Here, using x-ray pair distribution function (PDF) analysis and computer modeling, we explore structure models for the complex charge density wave (CDW) phases of layered 1T-TaS 2 that both well capture their atomic-level features and are amenable to electronic structure calculations. The models give the most probable position of constituent atoms in terms of 3D repetitive unit cells comprising a minimum number of Ta–S layers. Structure modeling results confirm the emergence of star-of-David (SD) like clusters of Ta atoms in the high-temperature incommensurate (IC) CDW phase and show that, contrary to the suggestions of recent studies, the low-temperature commensurate (C) CDW phase expands upon cooling thus reducing lattice strain. The C-CDW phase is also found to preserve the stacking sequence of Ta–S layers found in the room temperature, nearly commensurate (NC) CDW phase to a large extent. DFT based on the PDF refined model shows that bulk C-CDW 1T-TaS 2 also preserves the insulating state of individual layers of SD clusters, favoring the Mott physics description of the metal-to-insulator (NC-CDW to C-CDW) phase transition in 1T-TaS 2 . Our work highlights the importance of using precise crystal structure models in determining the nature of electronic phases in complex materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Conditional Point Sampling: A Monte Carlo Method for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media.

Current methods for stochastic media transport are either computationally expensive or, by nature, approximate. Moreover, none of the well-developed, benchmarked approximate methods can compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing, a quantity especially important to safety calculations. Therefore, we derive and apply a new conditional probability function (CPF) for use in the recently developed stochastic media transport algorithm Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS), which 1) leverages the full intra-particle memory of CoPS to yield errorless computation of stochastic media outputs in 1D, binary, Markovian-mixed media, and 2) leverages the full inter-particle memory of CoPS and the recently developed Embedded Variance Deconvolution method to yield computation of the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic material mixing. Numerical results demonstrate errorless stochastic media transport as compared to reference benchmark solutions with the new CPF for this class of stochastic mixing as well as the ability to compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing via CoPS. Using previously derived, non-errorless CPFs, CoPS is further found to be more accurate than the atomic mix approximation, Chord Length Sampling (CLS), and most of memory-enhanced versions of CLS surveyed. In addition, we study the compounding behavior of CPF error as a function of cohort size (where a cohort is a group of histories that share intra-particle memory) and recommend that small cohorts be used when computing the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic mixing.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗