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At least 469 records · Page 26

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Establishing temperature from radiance of dynamically compressed metals

Precise temperature determination is a significant challenge in extreme environments of dynamic compression studies. How can radiance measurements taken in high-pressure shock experiments constrain temperature in a meaningful and physically consistent way? Experiments maintaining sample compression against a transparent window can be tailored to present a uniform measurement area with uncertain spectral emissivity. We compare several methods to analyze radiance collected at multiple wavelengths, applying statistical methods and physical principles to improve temperature inference. With proper radiance collection and analysis, dynamic temperature uncertainties become comparable to thermomechanical ambiguities of the emitting surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Expandable Li Percolation Network: The Effects of Site Distortion in Cation-Disordered Rock-Salt Cathode Material

Cation-disordered rock-salt (DRX) materials receive intensive attention as a new class of cathode candidates for high-capacity lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Unlike traditional layered cathode materials, DRX materials have a three-dimensional (3D) percolation network for Li + transportation. The disordered structure poses a grand challenge to a thorough understanding of the percolation network due to its multiscale complexity. In this work, we introduce the large supercell modeling for DRX material Li 1.16 Ti 0.37 Ni 0.37 Nb 0.10 O 2 (LTNNO) via the reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) method combined with neutron total scattering. Here, through a quantitative statistical analysis of the material’s local atomic environment, we experimentally verified the existence of short-range ordering (SRO) and uncovered an element-dependent behavior of transition metal (TM) site distortion. A displacement from the original octahedral site for Ti 4+ cations is pervasive throughout the DRX lattice. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations revealed that site distortions quantified by the centroid offsets could alter the migration barrier for Li + diffusion through the tetrahedral channels, which can expand the previously proposed theoretical percolating network of Li. The estimated accessible Li content is highly consistent with the observed charging capacity. The newly developed characterization method here uncovers the expandable nature of the Li percolation network in DRX materials, which may provide valuable guidelines for the design of superior DRX materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Real-time deep-learning inversion of seismic full waveform data for CO 2 saturation and uncertainty in geological carbon storage monitoring

Deep-learning inversion has recently drawn attention in geological carbon storage research due to its potential of imaging and monitoring carbon storage in real time, significantly improving efficiency and safety of carbon storage operations. We present a deep-learning full waveform inversion method that after the neural network has been trained can image CO 2 saturation and its uncertainty in real time. Our deep-learning inversion method is based on the U-Net architecture with the neural network trained on pairs of synthetic seismic data and CO 2 saturation models. Accordingly, our training establishes a mapping relationship between seismic data and CO 2 saturation models and once fully trained directly estimates CO 2 saturation as a function of subsurface location. We further quantify uncertainties of CO 2 saturation estimates using the Monte Carlo dropout method and a bootstrap aggregating method. For this proof-of-concept study, the CO 2 training models and data are derived from the Kimberlina 1.2 model, a hypothetical 3D geological carbon storage model that is constructed based on various geological and hydrological data from the Southern San Joaquin Basin, California. We perform deep-learning inversion experiments using noise-free and noisy training and test data sets and compare the results. Our modelling experiments show that (1) the deep-learning inversion can estimate 2D distributions of CO 2 fairly well even in the presence of Gaussian random noise and (2) both CO 2 saturation imaging and uncertainty quantification can be done in real time. Our results suggest that the deep-learning inversion method can serve as a robust real-time monitoring tool for geological carbon storage and/or other time-varying reservoir/aquifer properties that result from injection, extraction, and/or other subsurface transport phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hybridizing pseudo-Hamiltonians and non-local pseudopotentials in diffusion Monte Carlo

An accurate treatment of effective core potentials (ECPs) requires care in continuum quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. While most QMC studies have settled on the use of familiar non-local (NL) pseudopotentials with additional localization approximations, these approaches have been shown to result in moderate residual errors for some classes of molecular and solid state applications. Here, we revisit an idea proposed early in the history of QMC ECPs that does not require localization approximations, namely, a differential class of potentials referred to as pseudo-Hamiltonians. We propose to hybridize NL potentials and pseudo-Hamiltonians to reduce residual non-locality of existing potentials. We derive an approach to recast pseudopotentials for 3d elements as hybrid pseudo-Hamiltonians with optimally reduced NL energy. We demonstrate the fidelity of the hybrid potentials by studying atomic ionization potentials of Ti and Fe and the binding properties of TiO and FeO molecules with diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC). We show that localization errors have been reduced relative to potentials with the same NL channels for Sc–Zn by considering the DMC energy change with respect to the choice of approximate localization. While localization error decreases proportionate to the reduced NL energy without a Jastrow, with a Jastrow, the degree of reduction decreases at higher filling of the d-shell. Our results suggest that a subset of existing ECPs may be recast in this hybrid form to reduce the DMC localization error. They also point to the prospect of further reducing this error by generating ECPs within this hybrid form from the start.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Abundance matching analysis of the emission-line galaxy sample in the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

We present the measurements of the small-scale clustering for the emission-line galaxy (ELG) sample from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV). We use conditional abundance matching method to interpret the clustering measurements from 0.34 to 70 h -1 Mpc. In order to account for the correlation between properties of ELGs and their environment, we add a secondary connection between star formation rate of ELGs and halo accretion rate. Three parameters are introduced to model the ELG [O II ] luminosity and to mimic the target selection of eBOSS ELGs. The parameters in our models are optimized using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We find that by conditionally matching star formation rate of galaxies and the halo accretion rate, we are able to reproduce the eBOSS ELG small-scale clustering within 1σ error level. Our best-fitting model shows that the eBOSS ELG sample only consists of ~ 12 per cent of all star-forming galaxies, and the satellite fraction of eBOSS ELG sample is 19.3 per cent. We show that the effect of assembly bias is ~ 20 per cent on the two-point correlation function and ~ 5 per cent on the void probability function at scale of r ~ 20 h -1 Mpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Nuclear Data

Bayesian evaluation of resolved resonance region (RRR) nuclear data has historically been carried out using the generalized least squares (GLS) formalism, as implemented in, e.g., SAMMY. We have recently developed a prototype of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) evaluation framework, implemented using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) acceptance criterion. This was done in order to remove the approximations underlying the conventional GLS evaluations, namely, the linear approximation, and the approximation that all probability density functions (PDFs) are of the normal kind. Recent works by others have used similar stochastic approaches to quantify cross section uncertainties from ENDF evaluated co-variances, and/or, from integral benchmark data, but those have not been conceived as an evaluation framework like the one presented here.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supervised learning and the finite-temperature string method for computing committor functions and reaction rates

A central object in the computational studies of rare events is the committor function. Though costly to compute, the committor function encodes complete mechanistic information of the processes involving rare events, including reaction rates and transition-state ensembles. Under the framework of transition path theory, Rotskoff et al. [Proceedings of the 2nd Mathematical and Scientific Machine Learning Conference, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research (PLMR, 2022), Vol. 145, pp. 757–780] proposes an algorithm where a feedback loop couples a neural network that models the committor function with importance sampling, mainly umbrella sampling, which collects data needed for adaptive training. Here, in this work, we show additional modifications are needed to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. The first modification adds elements of supervised learning, which allows the neural network to improve its prediction by fitting to sample-mean estimates of committor values obtained from short molecular dynamics trajectories. The second modification replaces the committor-based umbrella sampling with the finite-temperature string (FTS) method, which enables homogeneous sampling in regions where transition pathways are located. We test our modifications on low-dimensional systems with non-convex potential energy where reference solutions can be found via analytical or finite element methods, and show how combining supervised learning and the FTS method yields accurate computation of committor functions and reaction rates. We also provide an error analysis for algorithms that use the FTS method, using which reaction rates can be accurately estimated during training with a small number of samples. The methods are then applied to a molecular system in which no reference solution is known, where accurate computations of committor functions and reaction rates can still be obtained.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine learning inversion from scattering for mechanically driven polymers

A machine learning inversion method is developed for analyzing scattering functions of mechanically driven polymers and extracting the corresponding feature parameters, which include energy parameters and conformation variables. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds constrained by bending energy, and it is subject to external forces such as stretching and shear. We generate a data set consisting of random combinations of energy parameters, including bending modulus, stretching and shear force, along with Monte Carlo-calculated scattering functions and conformation variables such as end-to-end distance, radius of gyration and off-diagonal component of the gyration tensor. The effects of the energy parameters on the polymer are captured by the scattering function, and principal component analysis ensures the feasibility of the machine learning inversion. Finally, we train a Gaussian process regressor using part of the data set as a training set and validate the trained regressor for inversion using the rest of the data. The regressor successfully extracts the feature parameters.

Gaussian process regressors↗

Numerical Validation of an Algorithm for Combined Soiling and Degradation Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems

We describe and demonstrate an open-source algorithm for simultaneously quantifying degradation and soiling of photovoltaic (PV) systems from energy-production time series data. The new analysis is based on year-on-year degradation rate analysis combined with stochastic rate and recovery soiling analysis. The algorithm is designed to fit into the workflow provided by RdTools, a Python module maintained by NREL and collaboratively developed with the community, which provides a framework and functions for degradation and loss-factor analysis of PV field data. We demonstrate the method on numerically simulated PV data sets and show that it reduces the root-mean-square error of the P50 degradation rate estimate when soiling is present.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Kekulé valence bond order in the honeycomb lattice optical Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model and its relevance to graphene

We perform sign-problem-free determinant quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the optical Su- Schrieffer-Heeger model on a half-filled honeycomb lattice. In particular, we investigate the model’s semi-metal (SM) to Kekulé Valence Bond Solid (KVBS) phase transition at zero and finite temper- atures as a function of phonon energy and interaction strength. Using hybrid Monte Carlo sampling methods we can simulate the model near the adiabatic regime, allowing us to access regions of parameter space relevant to graphene. Our simulations suggest that the SM-KVBS transition is weakly first-order at all temperatures, with graphene situated close to the phase boundary in the SM region of the phase diagram. Furthermore, our results highlight the important role bond-stretching phonon modes play in the formation of KVBS order in strained graphene-derived systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

MCNP ® Code Version 6.3.0 Theory & User Manual

This document acts as a repository of knowledge for the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport computer code. It is maintained alongside the source code and attempts to introduce new users and re-familiarize experienced users with the theory and practices of using the MCNP code for the wide range of particle transport analyses that it is appropriate for. The latest version of the MCNP code, version 6.3.0, provides the Monte Carlo particle transport community with the latest feature developments and bug fixes in the MCNP code. The MCNP code version 6.0 and later is also known as the MCNP6 code.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

MCNP ® Code Version 6.3.1 Theory & User Manual

This document acts as a repository of knowledge for the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport computer code. It is maintained alongside the source code and attempts to introduce new users and re-familiarize experienced users with the theory and practices of using the MCNP code for the wide range of particle transport analyses that it is appropriate for. The latest version of the MCNP code, version 6.3.1, provides the Monte Carlo particle transport community with the latest feature developments and bug fixes in the MCNP code. The MCNP code version 6.0 and later is also known as the MCNP6 code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Cartesian-diffusion Langevin method for hybrid kinetic-fluid Coulomb scattering in particle-in-cell plasma simulations

A novel, drag-diffusion Langevin method of hybrid, kinetic-fluid Coulomb scattering in plasmas is presented. Unlike previous methods, the frictional drag is always applied in the simulation frame of reference. The velocity-space diffusion is performed in the stationary-fluid frame of reference when anisotropic, and in the laboratory frame when isotropic. While the general method is mass-ratio independent, we focus on interactions of kinetic-ions and fluid-electrons to show first-order modifications to the electron velocity distribution function that are an important correction for the accurate calculation of electric resistivity. Inclusion of sub-cycling and a limit to the maximum collision frequency is shown to allow for arbitrarily large timesteps without numerical failure. Here the Langevin method is compared with a grid-based binary method and found to require a much less restrictive timestep in cases of ion–electron slowing and temperature equilibration; this finding differs from previous work and is dependent on the mass ratio.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Convergence of variational Monte Carlo simulation and scale-invariant pre-training

We provide theoretical convergence bounds for the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method as applied to optimize neural network wave functions for the electronic structure problem. Here, we study both the energy minimization phase and the supervised pre-training phase that is commonly used prior to energy minimization. For the energy minimization phase, the standard algorithm is scale-invariant by design, and we provide a proof of convergence for this algorithm without modifications. The pre-training stage typically does not feature such scale-invariance. We propose using a scale-invariant loss for the pretraining phase and demonstrate empirically that it leads to faster pre-training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗