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At least 469 records · Page 26

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling Enhancements, Cross-Section Generation Updates, and Benchmarking with Shift

This technical report documents the modeling enhancements, cross-section generation updates, and bench marking with the Shift Monte Carlo code performed under the US Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program in FY 2024. The work performed included several modeling enhancements, such as integration of cross-section generation in Titan and the ability to produce microscopic multigroup cross sections with Shift. Benchmarking of the cross sections produced by Shift and the two-step workflow with Griffin was performed for three problems: the Advanced Breeder Test Reactor, a generic pebble bed reactor, and a TRISO heat pipe microreactor. Comparisons of results from these benchmark problems were done with Serpent, OpenMC, and Griffin. These enhancements provide a robust foundation for applying Shift for both reference and two-step neutronics analysis for advanced reactor simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SPARTAN: A High-Fidelity Simulation for Automated Rendezvous and Docking Applications

bd Systems (a subsidiary of SAIC) has developed the Simulation Package for Autonomous Rendezvous Test and ANalysis (SPARTAN), a high-fidelity on-orbit simulation featuring multiple six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) vehicles. SPARTAN has been developed in a modular fashion in Matlab/Simulink to test next-generation automated rendezvous and docking guidance, navigation,and control algorithms for NASA's new Vision for Space Exploration. SPARTAN includes autonomous state-based mission manager algorithms responsible for sequencing the vehicle through various flight phases based on on-board sensor inputs and closed-loop guidance algorithms, including Lambert transfers, Clohessy-Wiltshire maneuvers, and glideslope approaches The guidance commands are implemented using an integrated translation and attitude control system to provide 6DOF control of each vehicle in the simulation. SPARTAN also includes high-fidelity representations of a variety of absolute and relative navigation sensors that maybe used for NASA missions, including radio frequency, lidar, and video-based rendezvous sensors. Proprietary navigation sensor fusion algorithms have been developed that allow the integration of these sensor measurements through an extended Kalman filter framework to create a single optimal estimate of the relative state of the vehicles. SPARTAN provides capability for Monte Carlo dispersion analysis, allowing for rigorous evaluation of the performance of the complete proposed AR&D system, including software, sensors, and mechanisms. SPARTAN also supports hardware-in-the-loop testing through conversion of the algorithms to C code using Real-Time Workshop in order to be hosted in a mission computer engineering development unit running an embedded real-time operating system. SPARTAN also contains both runtime TCP/IP socket interface and post-processing compatibility with bdStudio, a visualization tool developed by bd Systems, allowing for intuitive evaluation of simulation results. A description of the SPARTAN architecture and capabilities is provided, along with details on the models and algorithms utilized and results from representative missions.

Turbe, Michael A.↗

A Survey of Xenon Ion Sputter Yield Data and Fits Relevant to Electric Propulsion Spacecraft Integration

A survey of low energy xenon ion impact sputter yields was conducted to provide a more coherent baseline set of sputter yield data and accompanying fits for electric propulsion integration. Data uncertainties are discussed and different available curve fit formulas are assessed for their general suitability. A Bayesian parameter fitting approach is used with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to provide estimates for the fitting parameters while characterizing the uncertainties for the resulting yield curves.

xenon↗

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

HL-LHC Computing Review Stage-2, Common Software Projects: Event Generators

This paper has been prepared by the HEP Software Foundation (HSF) Physics Event Generator Working Group (WG), as an input to the second phase of the LHCC review of High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) computing, which is due to take place in November 2021. It complements previous documents prepared by the WG in the context of the first phase of the LHCC review in 2020, including in particular the WG paper on the specific challenges in Monte Carlo event generator software for HL-LHC, which has since been updated and published, and which we are also submitting to the November 2021 review as an integral part of our contribution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A High-Efficiency Delayed Update Algorithm for Evaluating Slater Determinants in Quantum Monte Carlo

For quantum Monte Carlo simulations of molecular systems or supercells with thousands of electrons, matrix operations related to Slater determinants lead the computational cost. McDaniel et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 2017, 147, 174107] proposed a delayed update algorithm to increase computational efficiency by using matrix–matrix multiplication when updating the inverse matrices of Slater determinants. However, preparing intermediate matrices for applying the Sherman–Morrison–Woodbury formula remained a bottleneck. Here, in this work, we introduce an improved algorithm for CPUs and GPUs that (1) reduces this bottleneck by iteratively updating the intermediate matrices and (2) is efficient at any acceptance ratio, with no cost for rejected moves on CPUs and minimal cost on GPUs. We show the full scheme of integrating the delayed update algorithm into a single-electron move. The high efficiency of our algorithm is demonstrated on CPUs and GPUs for a 512 atom/6144 valence electron calculation, with 12× and 2× overall speed-up compared to traditional rank-1 update schemes in diffusion quantum Monte Carlo, respectively.

Luo, Ye [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonn↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Energy & Fuels↗

An ultra-fast method for generating synthetic down-scattered neutron data for inertial confinement fusion implosions

In inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility, asymmetries are probed by a variety of neutron diagnostics, including neutron imaging systems, real-time neutron activation diagnostics (RTNADs), and neutron spectrometers. It is often useful to generate synthetic data based on these diagnostics to validate and tune models. However, current methods of doing so using Monte Carlo particle tracing are time-consuming. In this paper, an ultra-fast method is presented for generating synthetic neutron images, RTNAD data, and spectrometry data using line integrals and 3D convolutions. While it does not contain as much physics as particle tracing codes, it is thousands of times faster and produces nearly identical data. This enables analysis techniques that depend on generating large amounts of synthetic data, which will prove very useful for the study of asymmetries going forward.

Deuterium↗

Intrinsic nonlocality of spin- and polarization-resolved probabilities in strong-field quantum electrodynamics

Spin and polarization are central to precision tests of fundamental physics and for interpreting radiation from astrophysical sources and ultraintense laser-matter experiments. Here, focusing on the fundamental process of nonlinear Compton scattering, we demonstrate that a key assumption underlying current strong-field quantum electrodynamics models, i.e., that emission can be treated as an instantaneous random event sampled from a local differential rate, is inconsistent once emission angles, electron spin, and/or photon polarization are resolved. Namely, even in strictly constant and uniform fields , the resulting fully differential distribution is sign indefinite, yielding negative inferred probabilities. The physical reason is that the photon emission probability builds up over a finite length of the electron trajectory, the formation region, during which the electron direction changes by roughly the same small angle that defines the radiation cone. Therefore, we put forward a new method where we integrate over this formation region analytically to obtain a physically consistent electron spin and photon polarization model. We show that the implementation of our model is compatible with existing Monte Carlo and particle-in-cell workflows. Simulations of a GeV-class electron-laser collision accessible at current petawatt facilities and of emission in a pulsarlike magnetic field are shown to reveal spin and polarization patterns that differ even qualitatively from state-of-the-art local models. In particular, our new model predicts substantial angle-dependent circular photon polarization where the well-known collinear-emission approach yields none, and a pronounced helicity bias in the recoiling electrons absent from current predictions. These findings have direct implications for upcoming strong-field QED experiments and for interpreting polarized radiation from extreme astrophysical environments.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗

Uncertainty-quantification-enabled inversion of nuclear responses

Nuclear quantum many-body methods rely on integral transform techniques to infer properties of electroweak response functions from ground-state expectation values. Retrieving the energy dependence of these responses is highly nontrivial, especially for quantum Monte Carlo methods, as it requires inverting the Laplace transform, a notoriously ill-posed problem. Here, in this work, we propose an artificial neural network architecture suitable for accurate response function reconstruction with precise estimation of the uncertainty of the inversion. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new architecture benchmarking it against maximum entropy and previously developed neural network methods designed for a similar task, paying particular attention to its robustness noise in the Euclidean

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗