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At least 469 records · Page 26

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HIRM v1.0: a hybrid impulse response model for climate modeling and uncertainty analyses

Simple climate models (SCMs) are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their flexibility, tractability, and low computational cost. SCMs can be idealized, flexibly representing major climate dynamics as impulse response functions, or process-based, using explicit equations to model possibly nonlinear climate and Earth system dynamics. Each of these approaches has strengths and limitations. Here we present and test a hybrid impulse response modeling framework (HIRM) that combines the strengths of process-based SCMs in an idealized impulse response model, with HIRM's input derived from the output of a process-based model. This structure enables the model to capture some of the major nonlinear dynamics that occur in complex climate models as greenhouse gas emissions transform to atmospheric concentration to radiative forcing to climate change. As a test, the HIRM framework was configured to emulate the total temperature of the simple climate model Hector 2.0 under the four Representative Concentration Pathways and the temperature response of an abrupt 4 times CO 2 concentration step. HIRM was able to reproduce near-term and long-term Hector global temperature with a high degree of fidelity. Additionally, we conducted two case studies to demonstrate potential applications for this hybrid model: examining the effect of aerosol forcing uncertainty on global temperature and incorporating more process-based representations of black carbon into a SCM. The open-source HIRM framework has a range of applications including complex climate model emulation, uncertainty analyses of radiative forcing, attribution studies, and climate model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Subgrid Approach for Modeling Microtopography Effects on Overland Flow: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. A new subgrid model was implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial simulator (ATS) to capture micro-topography effects on surface flow. Model evaluation was performed on disparate landscapes including: 1) seven individual ice-wedge polygons and a cluster of ice-wedge polygons from Barrow Alaska, 2) hummocky microtopography from Spruce field site in Minnesota, 3) synthetic rills, and 4) synthetic multGaussian realizations. Results of the subgrid model are compared to benchmark (fine-scale) and null hypothesis (model ignoring microtopography). Our finding confirms that the effects of small-scale spatial heterogeneities can be captured in the coarsened models. The dataset contains variety of files including meshes, input files, and subgrid parameters required to run the simulations. Python scripts (jupyter notebooks) for post-processing and files for geometric analyses are also included. More details are provided in file "simulations_info", which has been provided in both .docx and .pdf formats. This dataset is a zip file.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of the ITER Tokamak C-model with the Building Model

The pellet injector system is designed to accommodate the requirement of continuous plasma refueling during ITER Tokamak operations. Through pellet flight tubes/injection lines, the pellets can directly reach the interior of the tokamak vacuum vessel. The pellet injector system is located at a port cell outside of the Tokamak bio-shield. The plasma radiation source in the tokamak vacuum vessel, together with the highly activated surrounding water in port cells, present major radiation challenges for the pellet injector system during ITER operation and after shutdown. These sources produce a radiation field encompassing the entire Tokamak complex. The ITER neutronics reference model C-model is an ITER radiation transport model. It represents a 40 deg. regular torus sector out to the bio-shield, which consists of 38 individual systems. The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) input of the C-model consists of more than a hundred thousand cell definitions and surface definitions, and over three hundred material compositions. The latest tokamak complex MCNP model is significantly more detailed than any previous releases. It consists of 36,863 cell definitions, 57,105 surface definitions, and a total of 21 different types of materials. The C-model and tokamak building model share the bio-shield as the boundary between them. In general, the radiation fields in the building due to the plasma source during tokamak operation are determined by generating the radiation source in the inner faces of the bio-shield. An inherent limitation of this approach is that it can only approximate the directions in which streaming paths are produced through the bio-shield plugs. To better estimate the shutdown dose rate for the pellet injector system due to the plasma source, we have decided to integrate the tokamak model (C-model) with the complex building model. Both MCNP models are provided by the ITER International Organization (IO) to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Radiation Transport (RT) group.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reproducible, Component-based Modeling with TopoFlow, A Spatial Hydrologic Modeling Toolkit

Modern geoscientists have online access to an abundance of different data sets and models, but these resources differ from each other in myriad ways and this heterogeneity works against interoperability as well as reproducibility. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the main issues and some best practices for addressing the challenge of reproducible science in the context of a relatively simple hydrologic modeling study for a small Arctic watershed near Fairbanks, Alaska. This study requires several different types of input data in addition to several, coupled model components. All data sets, model components and processing scripts (e.g. for preparation of data and figures, and for analysis of model output) are fully documented and made available online at persistent URLs. Similarly, all source code for the models and scripts is open-source, version controlled and made available online via GitHub. Each model component has a Basic Model Interface (BMI) to simplify coupling and its own HTML help page that includes a list of all equations and variables used. The set of all model components (TopoFlow) has also been made available as a Python package for easy installation. Three different graphical user interfaces for setting up TopoFlow runs are described, including one that allows model components to run and be coupled as web services.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting grid-size-dependent fracture strains of DP980 with a microstructure-based post-necking model

Ductile fracture is a local phenomenon, and it is well established that fracture strain levels depend on both stress triaxiality and the resolution (grid size) of strain measurements. Two-dimensional plane strain post-necking models with different representative volume element (RVE) sizes are used to predict the size-dependent fracture strain of a commercial dual-phase steel, DP980. The models are generated from the actual microstructures, and the individual phase flow properties and literature-based individual phase damage parameters for the Johnson-Cook model are used for ferrite and martensite. A monotonic relationship is predicted: the smaller the model size, the higher the fracture strain. Thus, a general framework is developed to quantify the size-dependent fracture strains for multiphase materials. In addition to the RVE sizes, the influences of intrinsic microstructure features, i.e., the flow curve and fracture strains of the two constituent phases, on the predicted fracture strains also are examined. Application of the derived fracture strain versus RVE size relationship is demonstrated with large clearance trimming simulations with different element sizes.

Cheng, G. (ORCID:0000000268604420)↗

A dislocation-based, strain–gradient–plasticity strengthening model for deformation processed metal–metal composites

Deformation processed metal–metal composites (DMMCs) are high-strength, high-electrical conductivity composites developed by severe plastic deformation of two ductile metal phases. The extraordinarily high strength of DMMCs is underestimated using the rule of mixture (or volumetric weighted average) of conventionally work-hardened metals. A dislocation-density-based, strain–gradient–plasticity model is proposed to relate the strain-gradient effect with the geometrically necessary dislocations emanating from the interface to better predict the strength of DMMCs. The model prediction was compared with our experimental findings of Cu–Nb, Cu–Ta, and Al–Ti DMMC systems to verify the applicability of the new model. The results show that this model predicts the strength of DMMCs better than the rule-of-mixture model. The strain-gradient effect, responsible for the exceptionally high strength of heavily cold worked DMMCs, is dominant at large deformation strain since its characteristic microstructure length is comparable with the intrinsic material length.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Incorporation of salinity, nitrogen, and shading stress factors into the Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth model

The Huesemann Algae Biomass Growth (HABG) model predicts microalgae biomass growth in outdoor raceways as a function of water temperature and incident light intensity. The model over-predicted growth in several Regional Algal Feedstock Testbed (RAFT) experiments. Inspection of the culture conditions suggested that salinity stress, nutrient limitation, and shading reduced growth, which were not included in the original model. Laboratory experiments were carried out to measure growth response of S. obliquus to high salinity and limited nitrogen. In addition, the shading effect was estimated based on raceway geometry, solar angle, albedo and measured light intensity data. In this study, the improvement of model performance is presented step by step as each growth limiting factor is incorporated into the model. The new salinity, shanding, and nutrient stress factors remove most of the over-prediction of the original model. Comparison of the model with observed data indicated that ignoring the lag phase also resulted in overprediction. Delaying the start of the simulation until the end of the lag phase and inclusion of stress factors lowered model inaccuracy from 90% over-prediction to within ±10% in six out of seven batches.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

CFD-DEM Modeling of Autothermal Pyrolysis of Corn Stover with a Coupled Particle- and Reactor-Scale Framework

Autothermal operation of fast pyrolysis is an efficient process-intensification technique wherein exothermic oxidation reactions are used to overcome the heat-transfer bottleneck of conventional pyrolysis. The development of accurate, reliable modeling toolsets is imperative to generating a deeper understanding of biomass autothermal pyrolysis systems to support scale-up and industrial deployment. This modeling effort describes the development of single-particle and reactor models which incorporate detailed reaction schemes and simultaneous exothermic oxidation reactions. The particle-scale model was parameterized for corn stover feedstock with particle morphology, density, ash content, and biopolymer composition, all of which impact the emergent conversion characteristics during pyrolysis. Results were then used to parameterize a reactor-scale autothermal pyrolysis model, which was developed using a coarse-grained computational fluid dynamic-discrete element method. The simulation results compared well with experimental results, with the predicted bio-oil, light gas, and biochar yield within 3.0 wt% of the experimental yields. Further analyses were performed to test the influence of equivalence ratio, biomass injection position, and particle size distribution on autothermal pyrolysis. The analysis of the physio-chemical properties of the fluid and solid phase inside the reactor and at the reactor outlet help reveal important process interactions of autothermal pyrolysis.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling and simulation of CO 2 capture using semipermeable elastic microcapsules

Very high rates of CO2 absorption have been demonstrated using semipermeable microcapsules filled with environmentally benign sodium carbonate solutions (Vericella et al., Nature communications 6, 2015). However, such capsules have also exhibited several traits, including water loss/uptake, elastic swelling and buckling, and precipitation of solids, which make them more complicated to engineer as a carbon capture material. To address this, a mechanistic model for mass transfer and chemical reaction has been developed, which accounts for these behaviors, and can be used as a predictive tool to explore capsule performance under different CO2 capture scenarios. The model uses a modified film theory to describe CO2 and H2O mass transfer rates, a concentration based description of vapor-liquid-solid equilibrium inside the capsule, and an elastic description of the capsule shell. Model predictions compare favorably to literature data for precipitating carbonates, as well as recent data for microcapsule CO2 absorption. The model was used to assess practical issues of capsule water transfer during a temperature swing CO2 absorption/desorption cycle. Model predictions indicate that capsules filled with high weight percent, precipitating sodium carbonate solution could be significantly or completely dehydrated during CO2 absorption. Subsequent rehydration of lean capsules at elevated temperature showed strong sensitivity to both gas humidity, and capsule shell elasticity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling of time-lapse seismic monitoring using CO 2 leakage simulations for a model CO 2 storage site with realistic geology: Application in assessment of early leak-detection capabilities

Time-lapse surface seismic surveys have been widely used at carbon sequestration sites for site characterization, monitoring subsurface CO 2 plume migration, and detecting potential CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir. Monitoring in the first permeable unit directly above the primary seal is important for early detection of CO 2 leakage. Forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data can be used to assess the utility of the seismic method for CO 2 leakage detection. We develop a workflow for forward modeling of time-lapse seismic data, including constructing seismic velocity models using flow simulation outputs, modeling of pre-stack and post-stack synthetic seismic data following seismic data processing sequence and analysis of processed synthetic time-lapse seismic data. We apply the forward modeling and analysis workflow to assessing the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring using the hypothetical CO 2 leakage scenarios for a model geologic storage site with realistic geology. We then derive the detection thresholds using the simulated normalized root-mean-square (NRMS) differences for the no-leakage case at a range of signal-to-noise ratios, representing the background noise levels in seismic data. We then compare NRMS differences triggered by the CO 2 leakage to the detection thresholds at each time step to quantify the detectability and the earliest detection time of seismic monitoring. We analyze the effects of the acquisition parameters and elastic parameters on the produced synthetic seismic data and earliest detection time. Our modeling results indicate that high signal-to-noise ratio is needed to detect the CO 2 leakage at the model site. Minimizing the background noise in seismic data is crucial for improving the detectability of the seismic method. Increasing the shot density or increasing the dominant frequency of the source wavelet is likely to increase the possibility of the leakage detection and reduce the time needed for the detection. The elastic parameters used in the rock physics modeling have significant effects on the resultant seismic velocity models and synthetic seismic data, highlighting their critical roles in understanding and interpreting time-lapse seismic reflection data associated with CO 2 monitoring, verification and accounting activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical mechanical models for dissociative adsorption of O{sub 2} on metal(100) surfaces with blocking, steering, and funneling

We develop statistical mechanical models amenable to analytic treatment for the dissociative adsorption of O{sub 2} at hollow sites on fcc(100) metal surfaces. The models incorporate exclusion of nearest-neighbor pairs of adsorbed O. However, corresponding simple site-blocking models, where adsorption requires a large ensemble of available sites, exhibit an anomalously fast initial decrease in sticking. Thus, in addition to blocking, our models also incorporate more facile adsorption via orientational steering and funneling dynamics (features supported by ab initio Molecular Dynamics studies). Behavior for equilibrated adlayers is distinct from those with finite adspecies mobility. We focus on the low-temperature limited-mobility regime where analysis of the associated master equations readily produces exact results for both short- and long-time behavior. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation is also utilized to provide a more complete picture of behavior. These models capture both the initial decrease and the saturation of the experimentally observed sticking versus coverage, as well as features of non-equilibrium adlayer ordering as assessed by surface-sensitive diffraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Parameter Reduction of Composite Load Model Using Active Subspace Method

Over the past decades, the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) has dramatically changed the power load composition in the distribution networks. The traditional static and dynamic load models can hardly capture the dynamic behavior of modern loads especially for fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) events. Thus, a more comprehensive composite load model with combination of static load, different types of induction motors, single-phase A/C motor, electronic load and DERs has been proposed by Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). However, due to the large number of parameters and model complexity, the WECC composite load model (WECC CMLD) raises new challenges to power system studies. To overcome these challenges, in this paper, a cutting-edge parameter reduction (PR) approach for WECC CMLD based on active subspace method (ASM) is proposed. Firstly, the WECC CMLD is parameterized in a discrete-time manner for the application of the proposed method. Then, parameter sensitivities are calculated by discovering the active subspace, which is a lower-dimensional linear subspace of the parameter space of WECC CMLD in which the dynamic response is most sensitive. The interdependency among parameters can be taken into consideration by our approach. Finally, the numerical experiments validate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach for WECC CMLD model.

active subspace↗

High-Fidelity Energy Deposition Ignition Model Coupled with Flame Propagation Models at Engine-like Flow Conditions

With the heightened pressure on car manufacturers to increase the efficiency and reduce the carbon emissions of their fleets, more challenging engine operation has become a viable option. Highly dilute, boosted, and stratified charge, among others, promise engine efficiency gains and emissions reductions. At such demanding engine conditions, the spark-ignition process is a key factor for the flame initiation propagation and the combustion event. From a computational standpoint, there exist multiple spark-ignition models that perform well under conventional conditions but are not truly predictive under strenuous engine operation modes, where the underlying physics needs to be expanded. In this paper, a hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian spark-ignition (LESI) model is coupled with different turbulence models, grid sizes, and combustion models. The ignition model, previously developed, relies on coupling Eulerian energy deposition with a Lagrangian particle evolution of the spark channel, at every time-step. The spark channel is attached to the electrodes and allowed to elongate at a speed derived from the flow velocity. The LESI model is used to simulate spark ignition in a nonquiescent crossflow environment at engine-like conditions, using converge commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. The results highlight the consistency, robustness, and versatility of the model in a range of engine-like setups, from typical with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and a larger grid size to high fidelity with large-eddy simulation (LES) and a finer grid size. The flame kernel growth is then evaluated against Schlieren images from an optical constant volume ignition chamber with a focus on the performance of flame propagation models, such as G-equation and thickened flame model, versus the baseline well-stirred reactor model. Finally, future development details are discussed.

Advanced ignition modeling↗

Direct-Steam Linear Fresnel Performance Model for NREL's System Advisor Model

This paper presents the technical formulation and demonstrated model performance results of a new direct-steam-generation (DSG) model in NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). The model predicts the annual electricity production of a wide range of system configurations within the DSG Linear Fresnel technology by modeling hourly performance of the plant in detail. The quasi-steady-state formulationallows users to investigate energy and mass flows, operating temperatures, and pressure drops for geometries and solar field configurations of interest. The model includes tools for heat loss calculation using either empirical polynomial heat loss curves as a function of steam temperature, ambient temperature, and wind velocity, or a detailed evacuated tube receiver heat loss model. Thermallosses are evaluated using a computationally efficient nodal approach, where the solar field and headers are discretized into multiple nodes where heat losses, thermal inertia, steam conditions (including pressure, temperature, enthalpy, etc.) are individually evaluated during each time step of the simulation. This paper discusses the mathematical formulation for the solar field model anddescribes how the solar field is integrated with the other subsystem models, including the power cycle and optional auxiliary fossil system. Model results are also presented to demonstrate plant behavior in the various operating modes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Genome-Scale Modeling of Light-Driven Reductant Partitioning and Carbon Fluxes in Diazotrophic Unicellular Cyanobacterium Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142

Genome-scale metabolic models have proven useful for answering fundamental questions about metabolic capabilities of a variety of microorganisms, as well as informing their metabolic engineering. However, only a few models are available for oxygenic photosynthetic microorganisms, particularly in cyanobacteria in which photosynthetic and respiratory electron transport chains (ETC) share components. We addressed the complexity of cyanobacterial ETC by developing a genome-scale model for the diazotrophic cyanobacterium, Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142. The resulting metabolic reconstruction, iCce806, consists of 806 genes associated with 667 metabolic reactions and includes a detailed representation of the ETC and a biomass equation based on experimental measurements. Both computational and experimental approaches were used to investigate light-driven metabolism in Cyanothece sp. ATCC 51142, with a particular focus on reductant production and partitioning within the ETC. The simulation results suggest that growth and metabolic flux distributions are substantially impacted by the relative amounts of light going into the individual photosystems. When photosystem II flux is high, terminal oxidases of respiratory electron transport are predicted to be an important mechanism for removing excess electrons. When photosystem I flux is high cyclic electron transport becomes important. Model predictions of growth rates were in good quantitative agreement with measured growth rates, and predictions of reaction usage were ualitatively consistent with protein and mRNA expression data, when these latter datasets were used to constrain the model.

51142↗