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457 records · Page 26

An improved framework for the dynamic likelihood filtering approach to data assimilation

Here, we propose improvements to the Dynamic Likelihood Filter (DLF), a Bayesian data assimilation filtering approach, specifically tailored to wave problems. The DLF approach was developed to address the common challenge in the application of data assimilation to hyperbolic problems in the geosciences and in engineering, where observation systems are sparse in space and time. When these observations have low uncertainties, as compared to model uncertainties, the DLF exploits the inherent nature of information and uncertainties to propagate along characteristics to produce estimates that are phase aware as well as amplitude aware, as would be the case in the traditional data assimilation approach. Along characteristics, the stochastic partial differential equations underlying the linear or nonlinear stochastic dynamics are differential equations. This study focuses on developing the explicit challenges of relating dynamics and uncertainties in the Eulerian and Lagrangian frames via dynamic Gaussian processes. It also implements the approach using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and compares the DLF approach to the conventional one with respect to wave amplitude and phase estimates in linear and nonlinear wave problems. Numerical comparisons show that the DLF/EnKF outperforms the EnKF estimates, when applied to linear and nonlinear wave problems. This advantage is particularly noticeable when sparse, low uncertainty observations are used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

iSPECTRON: a simulation interface for linear and nonlinear spectra with ab-initio quantum chemistry software

We introduce iSPECTRON, an open source (under the Educational Community License version 2.0) program that parses data from common quantum chemistry software (NWChem, OpenMolcas, Gaussian, Cobramm, etc.), produces the input files for the simulation of linear and nonlinear spectroscopy of molecules with the Spectron code, and analyzes the spectra with a broad range of tools. Vibronic spectra are expressed in term of the electronic eigenstates, obtained through quantum chemistry computations, and vibrational/bath effects are incorporated in the framework of the displaced harmonic oscillator model, where all required quantities are computed at the Franck-Condon point. The code capabilities are illustrated by simulating linear absorption, transient absorption and two dimensional electronic spectra of the pyrene molecule. Two levels of electronic structure theory, TDDFT (with NWChem) and RASSCF/RASPT2 (with OpenMolcas), are compared where possible. Acknowledgements: F.S., A.N., D.R.N., N.G., S.M, M.G. acknowledge support from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences Division under Award Nos. DE-SC0019484, KC-030103172684. The Spectron code was developed with support from the National Science Foundation (Grant CHE- 1953045). This research benefited from computational resources provided by EMSL, a DOE Office of Science User Facility sponsored by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at PNNL. PNNL is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the United States Department of Energy under DOE Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL1830.

Segatta, Francesco↗

Introduction to This Special Issue on Geostatistics and Geospatial Techniques in Remote Sensing

The germination of this special Computers & Geosciences (C&G) issue began at the Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers) (RGS-IBG) annual meeting in January 1997 held at the University of Exeter, UK. The snow and cold of the English winter were tempered greatly by warm and cordial discussion of how to stimulate and enhance cooperation on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing 'across the big pond' between UK and US researchers. It was decided that one way forward would be to hold parallel sessions in 1998 on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing at appropriate venues in both the UK and the US. Selected papers given at these sessions would be published as special issues of C&G on the UK side and Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (PE&RS) on the US side. These issues would highlight the commonality in research on geostatistical and geospatial research in remote sensing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence, a session on "Geostatistics and Geospatial Techniques for Remote Sensing of Land Surface Processes" was held at the RGS-IBG annual meeting in Guildford, Surrey, UK in January 1998, organized by the Modeling and Advanced Techniques Special Interest Group (MAT SIG) of the Remote Sensing Society (RSS). A similar session was held at the Association of American Geographers (AAG) annual meeting in Boston, Massachusetts in March 1998, sponsored by the AAG's Remote Sensing Specialty Group (RSSG). The 10 papers that make up this issue of C&G, comprise 7 papers from the UK and 3 papers from the LIS. We are both co-editors of each of the journal special issues, with the lead editor of each journal issue being from their respective side of the Atlantic. The special issue of PE&RS (vol. 65) that constitutes the other half of this co-edited journal series was published in early 1999, comprising 6 papers by US authors. We are indebted to the International Association for Mathematical Geology for allowing us to use C&G as a vehicle to convey how geostatistics and geospatial techniques can be used to analyze remote sensing and other types of spatial data. We see this special issue of C&G. and its complementary issue of PE&RS. as a testament to the vitality and interest in the application of geostatistical and geospatial techniques in remote sensing. We also see these special journal issues as the beginning of a fruitful. and hopefully long-term relationship, between American and British geographers and other researchers interested in geostatistical and geospatial techniques applied to remote sensing and other spatial data.

Atkinson, Peter↗

Numerical integrators for Lagrangian oceanography

Abstract. A common task in Lagrangian oceanography is to calculate a large number of drifter trajectories from a velocity field precalculated with an ocean model. Mathematically, this is simply numerical integration of an ordinary differential equation (ODE), for which a wide range of different methods exist. However, the discrete nature of the modelled ocean currents requires interpolation of the velocity field in both space and time, and the choice of interpolation scheme has implications for the accuracy and efficiency of the different numerical ODE methods. We investigate trajectory calculation in modelled ocean currents with 800 m, 4 km, and 20 km horizontal resolution, in combination with linear, cubic and quintic spline interpolation. We use fixed-step Runge–Kutta integrators of orders 1–4, as well as three variable-step Runge–Kutta methods (Bogacki–Shampine 3(2), Dormand–Prince 5(4) and 8(7)). Additionally, we design and test modified special-purpose variants of the three variable-step integrators, which are better able to handle discontinuous derivatives in an interpolated velocity field. Our results show that the optimal choice of ODE integrator depends on the resolution of the ocean model, the degree of interpolation, and the desired accuracy. For cubic interpolation, the commonly used Dormand–Prince 5(4) is rarely the most efficient choice. We find that in many cases, our special-purpose integrators can improve accuracy by many orders of magnitude over their standard counterparts, with no increase in computational effort. Equivalently, the special-purpose integrators can provide the same accuracy as standard methods at a reduced computational cost. The best results are seen for coarser resolutions (4 and 20 km), thus the special-purpose integrators are particularly advantageous for research using regional to global ocean models to compute large numbers of trajectories. Our results are also applicable to trajectory computations on data from atmospheric models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions

Many materials of interest to Sandia transition from fluid to solid or have regions of both phases coexisting simultaneously. Currently there are, unfortunately, no material models that can accurately predict this material response. This is relevant to applications that "birth stress" related to geoscience, nuclear safety, manufacturing, energy production and bioscience. Accurately capturing solidification and residual stress enables fully predictive simulations of the evolving front shape or final product. Accurately resolving flow of proppants or blood could reduce environmental impact or lead to better treatments for heart attacks, thrombosis, or aneurism. We will address a science question in this proposal: When does residual stress develop during the critical transition from liquid to solid and how does it affect material deformation? Our hypothesis is that these early phases of stress development are critical to predictive simulation of material performance, net shape, and aging. In this project, we use advanced constitutive models with yield stress to represent both fluid and solid behavior simultaneously. The report provides an abbreviated description of the results from our LDRD "Stress Birth and Death: Disruptive Computational Mechanics and Novel Diagnostics for Fluid-to-Solid Transitions," since we have written four papers that document the work in detail and which we reference. We give highlights of the work and describe the gravitationally driven flow visualization experiment on a model yield stress fluid, Carbopol, at various concentrations and flow rates. We were able to collapse the data on a single master curve by showing it was self-similar. We also describe the Carbopol rheology and the constitutive equations of interest including the Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda model, the Saramito model, and the HB-Saramito model including parameter estimation for the shear and oscillatory rheology. We present several computational models including the 3D moving mesh simulations of both the Saramito models and Bingham-Carreau-Yasuda (BCY) model. We also show results from the BCY model using a 3D level set method and two different ways of handling reduced order Hele-Shaw modeling for generalized Newtonian fluids. We present some first ever two-dimensional results for the modified Jeffries Kamani-Donley-Rogers constitutive equation developed during this project. We include some recent results with a successful Saramito-level set coupling that allows us to tackle problems with complex geometries like mold filling in a thin gap with an obstacle, without the need for remeshing or remapping. We report on some experiments for curing systems where fluorescent particles are used to track material flow. These experiments were carried out in an oven on Sylgard 184 as a model polymerizing system. We conclude the report with a summary of accomplishments and some thoughts on follow-on work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A robust deep learning workflow to predict multiphase flow behavior during geological C O 2 sequestration injection and Post-Injection periods

Simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is essential to manage the geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) process, and physics-based simulation approaches usually take prohibitively high computational cost due to the nonlinearity of the coupled physics. This paper contributes to the development and evaluation of a deep learning workflow that accurately and efficiently predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of pressure and CO 2 plumes during injection and post-injection periods of GCS operations. Based on a Fourier Neural Operator, the deep learning workflow takes input variables or features including rock properties, well operational controls and time steps, and predicts the state variables of pressure and CO 2 saturation. To further improve the predictive fidelity, separate deep learning models are trained for CO 2 injection and post-injection periods due to the difference in primary driving force of fluid flow and transport during these two phases. We also explore different combinations of features to predict the state variables. We use a realistic example of CO 2 injection and storage in a 3D heterogeneous saline aquifer, and apply the deep learning workflow that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulate the physics process. Through this numerical experiment, we demonstrate that using two separate deep learning models to distinguish post-injection from injection period generates the most accurate prediction of pressure, and a single deep learning model of the whole GCS process including the cumulative injection volume of CO 2 as a deep learning feature, leads to the most accurate prediction of CO 2 saturation. For the post-injection period, it is key to use cumulative CO 2 injection volume to inform the deep learning models about the total carbon storage when predicting either pressure or saturation. The deep learning workflow not only provides high predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, but also offers a speedup of 250 times compared to full physics reservoir simulation, and thus will be a significant predictive tool for engineers to manage the long-term process of GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗