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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Space system operations and support cost analysis using Markov chains

This paper evaluates the use of Markov chain process in probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and suggests further uses of the process as a design aid tool. A methodology is developed for estimating operations and support cost and expected life for reusable space transportation systems. Application of the methodology is demonstrated for the case of a hypothetical space transportation vehicle. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the effects of uncertainty in key model inputs.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Structural Vibration and Acoustic Radiation with a Beam-Array Doppler Vibrometer

This paper discusses the operational principles of an assembly of two opto-electronic modules with their configurations based on a Laser-Array Doppler Vibrometer (LADV) and a Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor (SHWFS). Both sensors can operate concurrently providing complementary data. While the SHWFS is a well-established system that enables low-bandwidth spatio-temporal characterization of aerodynamic turbulence, the LADV technology allows real-time detection of structural vibrations and associated acoustic radiation fields. Practical examples are shown of the instruments’ capabilities, focusing on the ability to simultaneously capture, visualize and quantitatively characterize full-field non-stationary structural dynamics and unsteady sound fields or transient flow fields around ground test facility airframe models or other structures of interest. The parallel multi-channel architecture of the LADV system enables synchronous detection and temporal correlation of indicators related to the spatio-temporal vibration of the structure under inspection. This unique feature is essential for real time detection and categorization of the structural and acoustic dynamics of transient events. For the present study, the LADV data have been successfully compared with measurements obtained with the SHWFS in the wake of a subsonic scale-model airfoil. The ability of the LADV-SHWFS coupled measurements to perform real time non-intrusive evaluation and characterization of dynamic processes at operationally relevant bandwidths should provide a deeper insight into the complex structural dynamics that contribute to radiated sound fields.

Vladimir B Markov↗
NASA NTRS1990

A numerical model of the Uranian dust rings

The present numerical simulations of the Uranian rings discovered by Voyager 2 indicate that they may be the visible component of low optical depth moonlet belts made up of 10 to 100,000 cm objects; these objects would serve as the sources of dust, via both micrometeoroid bombardment and the collisional release of ejecta. It is proposed that the dust bands are generated by continuous ejection and reabsorption of micron-scale regolith material within the hypothesized moolet belts, and it is noted that numerical simulations of such a system in a Markov-chain formalism can reproduce Uranian dust ring characteristics.

Colwell, Joshua E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bidirectional Classical Stochastic Processes with Measurements and Feedback

A measurement on a quantum system is said to cause the "collapse" of the quantum state vector or density matrix. An analogous collapse occurs with measurements on a classical stochastic process. This paper addresses the question of describing the response of a classical stochastic process when there is feedback from the output of a measurement to the input, and is intended to give a model for quantum-mechanical processes that occur along a space-like reaction coordinate. The classical system can be thought of in physical terms as two counterflowing probability streams, which stochastically exchange probability currents in a way that the net probability current, and hence the overall probability, suitably interpreted, is conserved. The proposed formalism extends the . mathematics of those stochastic processes describable with linear, single-step, unidirectional transition probabilities, known as Markov chains and stochastic matrices. It is shown that a certain rearrangement and combination of the input and output of two stochastic matrices of the same order yields another matrix of the same type. Each measurement causes the partial collapse of the probability current distribution in the midst of such a process, giving rise to calculable, but non-Markov, values for the ensuing modification of the system's output probability distribution. The paper concludes with an analysis of a classical probabilistic version of the so-called grandfather paradox.

Hahne, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Use of Kronecker Operators for the Solution of Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

We discuss how to describe the Markov chain underlying a generalized stochastic Petri net using Kronecker operators on smaller matrices. We extend previous approaches by allowing both an extensive type of marking-dependent behavior for the transitions and the presence of immediate synchronizations. The derivation of the results is thoroughly formalized, including the use of Kronecker operators in the treatment of the vanishing markings and the computation of impulse-based reward measures. We use our techniques to analyze a model whose solution using conventional methods would fail because of the state-space explosion. In the conclusion, we point out ideas to parallelize our approach.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗
NASA NTRS1991

Variance and bias computations for improved modal identification using ERA/DC

Variance and bias confidence criteria were recently developed for the eigensystem realization algorithm (ERA) identification technique. These criteria are extended for the modified version of ERA based on data correlation, ERA/DC, and also for the Q-Markov cover algorithm. The importance and usefulness of the variance and bias information are demonstrated in numerical studies. The criteria are shown to be very effective not only by indicating the accuracy of the identification results, especially in terms of confidence intervals, but also by helping the ERA user to obtain better results by seeing the effect of changing the sample time, adjusting the Hankel matrix dimension, choosing how many singular values to retain, deciding the model order, etc.

Longman, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Extensions to the classical calculation of the effect of mutual shadowing in diffuse reflection

The classical method for accounting for the mutual shadowing among closely packed particles in multiple scattering calculations is extended in the following ways. (1) By modeling the particle distribution by a Poisson process with a varying density parameter, a 'Van der Waals' type approximation allows extension to a greater fractional volume density, D. In this case it is only required that D squared be much less than 1 instead of D being much less than 1. (2) In the case that the particle distribution is not uniform the classical calculation may be weighted by the pair correlation function of the distribution. (3) The use of the Markov chain formalism for radiative transfer allows inclusion of the effect of shadowing for two orders of scattering. For conditions such as might apply in Saturn's rings, the inclusion of this effect makes less than a 0.1% difference in the calculated phase curves, compared to previous calculations which have included shadowing only in the first scattering. The latter are thus shown to be quite accurate.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Wu, N. Eva↗
NASA NTRS1990

A technique for optimal temperature estimation for modeling sunrise/sunset thermal snap disturbance torque

A predictive temperature estimation technique which can be used to drive a model of the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque experienced by low Earth orbiting spacecraft is described. The twice per orbit impulsive disturbance torque is attributed to vehicle passage in and out of the Earth's shadow cone (umbra), during which large flexible appendages undergo rapidly changing thermal conditions. Flexible members, in particular solar arrays, experience rapid cooling during umbra entrance (Sunset) and rapid heating during exit (Sunrise). The thermal 'snap' phenomena has been observed during normal on-orbit operations of both the LANDSAT-4 satellite and the Communications Technology Satellite (CTS). Thermal 'snap' has also been predicted to be a dominant source of error for the TOPEX satellite. The fundamental equations used to model the Sunrise/Sunset thermal 'snap' disturbance torque for a typical solar array like structure will be described. For this derivation the array is assumed to be a thin, cantilevered beam. The time varying thermal gradient is shown to be the driving force behind predicting the thermal 'snap' disturbance torque and therefore motivates the need for accurate estimates of temperature. The development of a technique to optimally estimate appendage surface temperature is highlighted. The objective analysis method used is structured on the Gauss-Markov Theorem and provides an optimal temperature estimate at a prescribed location given data from a distributed thermal sensor network. The optimally estimated surface temperatures could then be used to compute the thermal gradient across the body. The estimation technique is demonstrated using a typical satellite solar array.

Zimbelman, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exocometary Gas in the HD 181327 Debris Ring

An increasing number of observations have shown that gaseous debris discs are not an exception. However, until now, we only knew of cases around A stars. Here we present the first detection of 12CO (2-1) disc emission around an F star, HD 181327, obtained with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations at 1.3 mm. The continuum and CO emission are resolved into an axisymmetric disc with ring-like morphology. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method coupled with radiative transfer calculations, we study the dust and CO mass distribution. We find the dust is distributed in a ring with a radius of 86.0 +/- 0.4 au and a radial width of 23.2 +/- 1.0 au. At this frequency, the ring radius is smaller than in the optical, revealing grain size segregation expected due to radiation pressure. We also report on the detection of low-level continuum emission beyond the main ring out to approximately 200 au. We model the CO emission in the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium regime and we find that the CO is co-located with the dust, with a total CO gas mass ranging between 1.2 x 10(exp -6) solar mass and 2.9 x 10(exp -6) solar mass, depending on the gas kinetic temperature and collisional partners densities. The CO densities and location suggest a secondary origin, i.e. released from icy planetesimals in the ring. We derive a CO+CO2 cometary composition that is consistent with Solar system comets. Due to the low gas densities, it is unlikely that the gas is shaping the dust distribution.

exocometary gas↗
NASA NTRS1997

Parametric State Space Structuring

Structured approaches based on Kronecker operators for the description and solution of the infinitesimal generator of a continuous-time Markov chains are receiving increasing interest. However, their main advantage, a substantial reduction in the memory requirements during the numerical solution, comes at a price. Methods based on the "potential state space" allocate a probability vector that might be much larger than actually needed. Methods based on the "actual state space", instead, have an additional logarithmic overhead. We present an approach that realizes the advantages of both methods with none of their disadvantages, by partitioning the local state spaces of each submodel. We apply our results to a model of software rendezvous, and show how they reduce memory requirements while, at the same time, improving the efficiency of the computation.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗
NASA NTRS1972

Orbit determination in the presence of unmodeled accelerations.

In the investigation discussed here, the unmodeled acceleration is approximated as a first-order stationary Gauss-Markov process which can be separated into a time wise correlated component and a purely random component. An extended form of the Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the state and the unmodeled accelerations at each observation epoch. Applications of the estimation algorithm to simulated data and to tracking data obtained during the Apollo 10 and 11 missions indicate that a more accurate estimate of the state is obtained using the algorithm and that the estimated values of the unmodeled accelerations can be correlated with physical phenomena neglected by the mathematical model.

Tapley, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Classical Reliability Models and Single Event Upset (SEU) Data to Determine Optimum Implementation Schemes for Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) in SRAM-Based Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Devices

Space applications are complex systems that require intricate trade analyses for optimum implementations. We focus on a subset of the trade process, using classical reliability theory and SEU data, to illustrate appropriate TMR scheme selection.

Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)↗
NASA NTRS1977

Information distribution in distributed microprocessor based flight control systems

This paper presents an optimal control theory that accounts for variable time intervals in the information distribution to control effectors in a distributed microprocessor based flight control system. The theory is developed using a linear process model for the aircraft dynamics and the information distribution process is modeled as a variable time increment process where, at the time that information is supplied to the control effectors, the control effectors know the time of the next information update only in a stochastic sense. An optimal control problem is formulated and solved that provides the control law that minimizes the expected value of a quadratic cost function. An example is presented where the theory is applied to the control of the longitudinal motions of the F8-DFBW aircraft. Theoretical and simulation results indicate that, for the example problem, the optimal cost obtained using a variable time increment Markov information update process where the control effectors know only the past information update intervals and the Markov transition mechanism is almost identical to that obtained using a known uniform information update interval.

Montgomery, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of structural perturbations in systems via cost decomposition methods

It has long been common practice to analyze linear dynamic systems by decomposing the total response in terms of individual contributions which are easier to analyze. Examples of this philosophy include the expansion of transfer functions using: (1) the superposition principle, (2) residue theory and partial fraction expansions, (3) Markov parameters, Hankel matrices, and (4) regular and singular perturbations. This paper summarizes a new and different kind of expansion designed to decompose the norm of the response vector rather than the response vector itself. This is referred to as "cost-decomposition' of the system. The notable advantages of this type of decomposition are: (a) easy application to multi-input, multi-output systems, (b) natural compatibility with Linear Quadratic Gaussian Theory, (c) applicability to the analysis of more general types of structural perturbations involving inputs, outputs, states, parameters. Property (c) makes the method suitable for problems in model reduction, measurement/actuator selections, and sensitivity analysis.

Skelton, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Efficient GPU-Accelerated MultiSource Global Fit Pipeline for LISA Data Analysis

The large-scale analysis task of deciphering gravitational-wave signals in the LISA data stream will be difficult, requiring a large amount of computational resources and extensive development of computational methods. Its high dimensionality, multiple model types, and complicated noise profile require a global fit to all parameters and input models simultaneously. In this work, we detail our global fit algorithm, called “Erebor,” designed to accomplish this challenging task. It is capable of analyzing current state-of-the-art datasets and then growing into the future as more pieces of the pipeline are completed and added. We describe our pipeline strategy, the algorithmic setup, and the results from our analysis of the LDC2A Sangria dataset, which contains massive black hole binaries, compact galactic binaries, and a parametrized noise spectrum whose parameters are unknown to the user. The Erebor algorithm includes three unique and very useful contributions: GPU acceleration for enhanced computational efficiency; ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling with multiple MCMC walkers per temperature for better mixing and parallelized sample creation; and special online updates to reversible-jump (or transdimensional) sampling distributions to ensure sampler mixing and accurate initial estimates for detectable sources in the data.We recover posterior distributions for all 15 (6) of the injected massive black hole binaries (MBHB) in the LDC2A training (hidden) dataset. We catalog ∼12000 galactic binaries (∼8000 as high confidence detections) for both the training and hidden datasets. All of the sources and their posterior distributions are provided in publicly available catalogs.

LISA↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Evolution of the Galaxy Rest-Frame Ultraviolet Luminosity Function Over the First Two Billion Years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function at z = 4 to 8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the CANDELS/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1- 2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6-1.2 ×10(exp 6) Mpc(exp 3) over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for bright (M(sub UV) less than −21) and faint (M(sub UV) = −18) galaxies. We select galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 galaxies at 3.5 less than z less than 8.5, with more than 1000 galaxies at z of approximately 6 - 8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for galaxies in our redshift samples, as well as a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright galaxies at z of greater than or equal to 6. Our bestfit value of the characteristic magnitude M* is consistent with −21 at z of greater than or equal to 5, different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift. At z = 8, a single power-law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7, an exponential cutoff at the bright-end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M* is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright-end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, though a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M(sub UV) = −17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 + z)((exp −4.3)(+/-)(0.5)) at z greater than 4, consistent with observations at z greater than or equal to 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at redshift of approximately greater than 10, completes at z greater than 6, and reaches a midpoint (x(sub HII) = 0.5) at 6.7 less than z less than 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, though consistent with recent estimates of bright z similar to 10 galaxies.

Galaxy↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Ensemble-Based Smoother with Retrospectively Updated Weights for Highly Nonlinear Systems

Monte Carlo computational methods have been introduced into data assimilation for nonlinear systems in order to alleviate the computational burden of updating and propagating the full probability distribution. By propagating an ensemble of representative states, algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the resampled particle filter (RPF) rely on the existing modeling infrastructure to approximate the distribution based on the evolution of this ensemble. This work presents an ensemble-based smoother that is applicable to the Monte Carlo filtering schemes like EnKF and RPF. At the minor cost of retrospectively updating a set of weights for ensemble members, this smoother has demonstrated superior capabilities in state tracking for two highly nonlinear problems: the double-well potential and trivariate Lorenz systems. The algorithm does not require retrospective adaptation of the ensemble members themselves, and it is thus suited to a streaming operational mode. The accuracy of the proposed backward-update scheme in estimating non-Gaussian distributions is evaluated by comparison to the more accurate estimates provided by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Monte Carlo↗