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DOE OSTI2019

CHARMM-GUI Glycan Modeler for modeling and simulation of carbohydrates and glycoconjugates

Characterizing glycans and glycoconjugates in the context of three-dimensional structures is important in understanding their biological roles and developing efficient therapeutic agents. Computational modeling and molecular simulation have become an essential tool complementary to experimental methods. In this work, we present a computational tool, Glycan Modeler for in silico N–/O –glycosylation of the target protein and generation of carbohydrate-only systems. In our previous study, we developed Glycan Reader , a web-based tool for detecting carbohydrate molecules from a PDB structure and generation of simulation system and input files. As integrated into Glycan Reader in CHARMM-GUI, Glycan Modeler (Glycan Reader & Modeler) enables to generate the structures of glycans and glycoconjugates for given glycan sequences and glycosylation sites using PDB glycan template structures from Glycan Fragment Database (http://glycanstructure.org/fragment-db). Our benchmark tests demonstrate the universal applicability of Glycan Reader & Modeler to various glycan sequences and target proteins. We also investigated the structural properties of modeled glycan structures by running 2-μs molecular dynamics simulations of HIV envelope protein. The simulations show that the modeled glycan structures built by Glycan Reader & Modeler have the similar structural features compared to the ones solved by X-ray crystallography. We also describe the representative examples of glycoconjugate modeling with video demos to illustrate the practical applications of Glycan Reader & Modeler . Glycan Reader & Modeler is freely available at http://charmm-gui.org/input/glycan.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum simulations in effective model spaces: Hamiltonian-learning variational quantum eigensolver using digital quantum computers and application to the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model

Quantum simulations offer the potential to predict the structure and dynamics of nuclear many-body systems that are beyond the capabilities of classical computing. Generally, preparing the ground state of strongly-interacting many-body systems relevant to nuclear physics is however inefficient, even using ideal quantum computers. In addition, currently available NISQ-era quantum devices possess modest numbers of qubits, limiting the size of quantum many-body systems that can be simulated. In this context, a reformulation of the quantum many-body problems using truncated model spaces and Hamiltonians is desirable to make them more amenable to near-term quantum computers. The importance of symmetries in low-energy theories, including effective field theories (EFTs), lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD), and effective model spaces for nuclear systems, in particular their interplay with the reduction of active Hilbert spaces, is well known. Lesser known is the fact that the non-commutivity of some symmetries and truncations of the model space can be profitably combined with variational calculations to rearrange the entanglement into localized structures and enable more efficient simulations. Here, the goal of the present study is to explore and utilize the non-commutivity of symmetries and model-space truncations of quantum many-body systems important to nuclear physics, particularly in combination with variational algorithms for quantum simulations and effective Hamiltonian learning. We introduce an iterative hybrid classical-quantum algorithm, Hamiltonian learning variational quantum eigensolver (HL-VQE), that simultaneously optimizes an effective Hamiltonian, thereby rearranging entanglement into the effective model space, and the associated ground-state wavefunction. Quantum simulations, using classical computers and IBM's superconducting-qubit quantum computers, are performed to demonstrate the HL-VQE algorithm, in the context of the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick (LMG) model of interacting fermions, where the Hamiltonian transformation corresponds to an orbital rotation. We use a mapping where the number of qubits scales with the $\log$ of the size of the effective model space, rather than the particle number. HL-VQE is found to provide an exponential improvement in LMG-model calculations of the ground-state energy and wavefunction, compared to naive truncations without Hamiltonian learning, throughout a significant fraction of the Hilbert space. In the context of EFT, this corresponds to counterterms scaling exponentially with the cut-off as opposed to power law. Implementations on IBM's QExperience quantum computers and simulators for 1- and 2-qubit effective model spaces are shown to provide accurate and precise results, reproducing classical predictions. For a range of parameters defining the LMG model, the HL-VQE algorithm is found to have better scaling of quantum resources requirements than previously explored algorithms. In particular, the HL-VQE scales efficiently over a large fraction of the model space, in contrast to VQE alone. This work constitutes a step in the development of entanglement-driven quantum algorithms for descriptions of nuclear many-body systems. This, in part, leverages the potential of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. The exponential scaling of counterterms observed in this study suggests the possibility of more general applicability to other non-perturbative EFTs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nested active learning for efficient model contextualization and parameterization: pathway to generating simulated populations using multi-scale computational models

There is increasing interest in the use of mechanism-based multi-scale computational models (such as agent-based models (ABMs)) to generate simulated clinical populations in order to discover and evaluate potential diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The description of the environment in which a biomedical simulation operates (model context) and parameterization of internal model rules (model content) requires the optimization of a large number of free parameters. In this work, we utilize a nested active learning (AL) workflow to efficiently parameterize and contextualize an ABM of systemic inflammation used to examine sepsis. Contextual parameter space was examined using four parameters external to the model’s rule set. The model’s internal parameterization, which represents gene expression and associated cellular behaviors, was explored through the augmentation or inhibition of signaling pathways for 12 signaling mediators associated with inflammation and wound healing. We have implemented a nested AL approach in which the clinically relevant (CR) model environment space for a given internal model parameterization is mapped using a small Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The outer AL level workflow is a larger ANN that uses AL to efficiently regress the volume and centroid location of the CR space given by a single internal parameterization. We have reduced the number of simulations required to efficiently map the CR parameter space of this model by approximately 99%. In addition, we have shown that more complex models with a larger number of variables may expect further improvements in efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add the capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2 . The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data Integration Aggregated Model and Ontology for Nuclear Deployment (DIAMOND): Preliminary Model and Ontology

The data of a nuclear utility or plant are stored in various isolated forms in different systems. These data have different structures and tools and are, therefore, used independently. The integration of data sources is often performed manually and on an as-needed basis to achieve a targeted cost saving. A holistic approach to the integration of the data would enable creating a data warehouse for a single nuclear power plant (NPP) or multiple plants. A data warehouse results in direct and indirect cost saving because it automates the manual search for data, enables sharing and comparison of data from various tools of a single or multiple plants, enable digital transformation of data, increase frequencies of needed data that are sparse in nature (such as failures signatures), reduces the need for training on various tools for plant staff, enables a holistic staff perception of plant activities, reveals cost-saving opportunities, and improves the visual perception of all parts a plant necessary for operations and maintenance. One of the main challenges to deploy a data warehouse is associated with the integration of data sources into a consistent data model using a standard ontology that is developed by and for the nuclear power industry. This model is non-existent and is a necessity to enable the nuclear data warehouse role. A data model contains objects that make up a given domain along with their attributes and relationships. It provides domain standardization and maintainability, setting forth the objects, attributes, and relationships within that domain and acting as the guide by which the various applications within that domain will structure their data and interchange. An ontology is defined as “a set of concepts and categories in a subject area or domain that shows their properties and the relations between them”. Ontologies consist of a taxonomy or directed rooted tree. A survey of the models and ontologies available to support a data integration aggregated model and ontology for nuclear deployment (DIAMOND) was performed and different standards that address specific aspects of the needed model and ontology were leveraged and integrated in this effort. In specific, the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO) and Lifecycle Modeling Language (LML) were leveraged for the base ontology. The ISO 4224 and 15926 were leveraged in the development of the overlapping nuclear and fossil data aspects. The electric power research institute (EPRI) power distribution common information model (CIM) was also reviewed and the experience gained was leveraged in the power generation scope of DIAMOND. The initial aim targeted by this effort was to develop the ontology definitions and model structure. This report documents the resulting model and ontology to develop DIAMOND. The report describes the various elements of the model development based on a growing tree development approach, i.e. DIAMOND’s tree structure is established with the core data aspects and is populated with a preliminary level of details. Fifteen sources of data in a nuclear power plant were considered and incorporated into DIAMOND at this stage of development, representing the majority of operations data sources in nuclear power plants. Additional data sources, scope, and a higher level of fidelity will be incorporated into DIAMOND next in collaboration with the nuclear industry and relevant stakeholders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling a Lagrangian–Eulerian Spark-Ignition (LESI) model with LES combustion models for engine simulations

In the United States transportation sector, Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs) are the largest energy consumers and CO 2 emitters. Electrification of LDVs is posed as a potential solution, but SI engines can still contribute to decarbonization. Car manufacturers have turned to unconventional engine operation to increase the efficiency of Spark-Ignition (SI) engines and reduce the carbon emissions of their fleets. Dilute, lean, and stratified-charge engine operation has the potential for engine efficiency improvements at the expense of increased cyclic variability and combustion instability. At such demanding engine conditions, the spark ignition event is key for flame initiation and propagation and for enhanced combustion stability. Reliable and accurate spark ignition models can help design ignition systems that reduce cyclic variability. Multiple computational spark-ignition models exist that perform well under conventional conditions, but the underlying physics needs to be expanded, for unconventional engine operation. In this paper, a hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian Spark-Ignition (LESI) model is coupled with different turbulent flame propagation models for engine simulations. LESI relies on Lagrangian arc tracking and Eulerian energy deposition. The LESI model is coupled with the Well-Stirred Reactor (WSR), Thickened Flame Model (TFM), and g-equation model and used to simulate several cycles of a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition (DISI) engine using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) engine solver. The results showcase the successful coupling of LESI with the combustion models. Global engine metrics, such as pressure and Apparent Heat Release Rate (AHRR), for each simulation setup are compared to experimental engine results, for validation. In addition, results highlight the successful prediction of spark channel movement by comparing simulation images to experimental optical engine images. Finally, the successful coupling of LESI to combustion models, making it a usable model in the engine modeling community, is emphasized and future development details are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating Integrated Surface/Subsurface Permafrost Thermal Hydrology Models in ATS (v0.88) Against Observations from a Polygonal Tundra Site: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive supports the NGEE Arctic publication "Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site" available in the Geoscientific Model Development journal. We evaluated the integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) against field observations in polygonal tundra at the Barrow Environmental Observatory. We simulated thermal hydrology of three-dimensional ice-wedge polygons with generic but broadly representative surface microtopography. We drove the simulations with meteorological data and observed water table elevations in ice-wedge polygon troughs. With limited calibration of the soil properties and evaporation model parameters, the simulations were found to be consistent with observed water tables, active layer thickness, snowpack depth, evaporation, and observed soil temperatures at several depths in trough, rim, and center. The study builds confidence in the emerging class of integrated surface/subsurface permafrost simulators and provides an optimized set of model parameters for use in projections of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. This dataset includes python, html, pdf, EXO, H5, xlsx, and csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Model Deformation Measurements of Sonic Boom Models in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel

The deformations of two sonic-boom models were measured by stereo photogrammetry during tests in the 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The models were geometrically similar but one was 2.75 times as large as the other. Deformation measurements were made by simultaneously imaging the upper surfaces of the models from two directions by calibrated cameras that were mounted behind windows of the test section. Bending and twist were measured at discrete points using conventional circular targets that had been marked along the leading and trailing edges of the wings and tails. In addition, continuous distributions of bending and twist were measured from ink speckles that had been applied to the upper surfaces of the model. Measurements were made at wind-on (M = 1.6) and wind-off conditions over a range of angles of attack between 2.5 deg. and 5.0 deg. At each condition, model deformation was determined by comparing the wind-off and wind-on coordinates of each measurement point after transforming the coordinates to reference coordinates tied to the model. The necessary transformations were determined by measuring the positions of a set of targets on the rigid center-body of the models whose model-axes coordinates were known. Smoothly varying bending and twist measurements were obtained at all conditions. Bending displacements increased in proportion to the square of the distance to the centerline. Maximum deflection of the wingtip of the larger model was about 5 mm (2% of the semispan) and that of the smaller model was 0.9 mm (1% of the semispan). The change in wing twist due to bending increased in direct proportion to distance from the centerline and reached a (absolute) maximum of about -1 at the highest angle of attack for both models. The measurements easily resolved bending displacements as small as 0.05 mm and bending-induced changes in twist as small as 0.05 deg.

model deformation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty

In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. Furthermore, the results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Conditional Karhunen–Loève regression model with Basis Adaptation for high-dimensional problems: Uncertainty quantification and inverse modeling

Here, we propose a methodology for improving the accuracy of surrogate models of the observable response of physical systems as a function of the systems’ spatially heterogeneous parameter fields, with applications to uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation in high-dimensional problems. Practitioners often formulate finite-dimensional representations of spatially heterogeneous parameter fields using truncated unconditional Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) for a certain choice of unconditional covariance kernel and construct surrogate models of the observable response with respect to the KLE coefficients. When direct measurements of the parameter fields are available, we propose improving the accuracy of these surrogate models by representing the parameter fields via conditional Karhunen-Loève expansions (CKLEs). CKLEs are constructed by conditioning the covariance kernel of the unconditional expansion on the direct measurements of the parameter field via Gaussian process regression, and then truncating the corresponding KLE. We apply the proposed methodology to constructing surrogate models via the Basis Adaptation (BA) method of the stationary hydraulic head response, measured at spatially discrete observation locations, of a groundwater flow model of the Hanford Site, as a function of the 1000-dimensional representation of the model’s log-transmissivity field. We find that BA surrogate models of the hydraulic head based on CKLEs are more accurate than BA surrogate models based on unconditional expansions for forward uncertainty quantification tasks. Furthermore, we find that inverse estimates of the hydraulic transmissivity field computed using CKLE-based BA surrogate models are more accurate than those computed using unconditional BA surrogate models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

A guideline for appropriate application of vertically-integrated modeling approaches for geologic carbon storage modeling

Mathematical modeling is an essential tool for answering questions related to geologic carbon storage (GCS). The choice of modeling approach depends on the type of questions being asked. In this paper we discuss a series of approaches with a hierarchical complexity including vertically-integrated single-phase flow approaches, vertically-integrated multi-phase flow approaches (with and without vertical equilibrium assumption), three-dimensional multi-phase flow approaches, and fully-coupled multi-phase flow approaches that couple flow with geochemistry and/or geomechanics. Three spatial scales are used to categorize the questions to be addressed by modeling: regional scale (encompasses CO 2 plume extent and majority of area of pressure impact of one or more injection operations), site scale (includes the CO 2 plume extent and some of the area impacted by the pressure increase of a single injection site), and well scale (the immediate vicinity of an injection well). A set of guidelines is developed to help modelers choose the most appropriate modeling approach, and show when simpler modeling approaches may be the better choice. Vertically-integrated single-phase flow models are the most appropriate choice at both the site and regional scales, if the pressure impact outside of the CO 2 plume is of interest. Vertically-integrated multi-phase flow models should be chosen at the regional scale, if the locations of CO 2 plumes are of interest, and at the site scale if vertical segregation of CO 2 and brine is fast or vertical heterogeneity in properties can be presented by distinct, continuous layers. Three-dimensional multi-phase flow models are the appropriate choice at the well and site scales for cases with significant vertical flow components of CO 2 and brine. Fully-coupled multi-phase flow models should only be chosen if pore-space alteration through geochemistry or geomechanics feeds back to fluid flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

Fang, Yilin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of a tomography-informed polyhedral discrete element modelling approach for complex-shaped granular woody biomass in stress consolidation

The design of handling equipment for granular biomass primarily requires experiments. Discrete element models (DEM) can provide designers with detailed insight into the behaviour of granular materials. However, granular biomass comprising complex-shaped particles is difficult to model with DEM. A tomography-informed DEM approach and an exhaustive assessment of the ability of the approach to predict the bulk behaviour of milled pines using experimental data is presented. Nano-CT scan was conducted to obtain 3D particle surface geometries as the basis for particle shape approximation by a polyhedral model and a sphero-polyhedral model. These models were applied in the simulation of a compressibility test. Our parametric study showed that particle Young's modulus and restitution coefficient are the two main properties influencing the simulated bulk behaviour of the DEM particles and that the level of approximating DEM particle shape for real particles is critical for accurately replicating the bulk behaviour of milled pines. The polyhedral model demonstrated better suitability than its sphero-polyhedral counterpart for modelling pine particles. The polyhedral model calibrated in a compressibility test was then applied in the simulations of a friction test without additional parameter tuning. Interlocking was dominant in the shear of bulk pine particles. Remarkably, the polyhedral model predicted the frictional behaviour of the pine particles when compared to the experimental results. The limitations of the model, as well as possible ways for enhancement, are discussed. This work provided novel insights into the suitability of complex-shaped DEM models for granular woody biomass.

Biomass flow↗

DOE OSTI2018

Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)

The Amazon forest plays an important role in the tropical circulation and global water and biogeochemical cycles. However, the common Amazon precipitation biases in global climate models undermine our ability to understand future changes in the Amazon and their global consequences. The Community Earth System Model exhibits a persistent wet season dry bias over the southwestern Amazon. The bias is also characterized by inaccurate diurnal timing and intensity of rainfall events. Analysis of a diverse set of simulations suggests that the bias originates from local processes. A known land model bias in the partitioning of surface energy fluxes is found not to contribute significantly to the rainfall bias. Key model processes are identified to be the low-level divergent circulation controlling horizontal moisture flow and the sensitivity of the modeled deep convection to the lower tropospheric moisture. The lower tropospheric moisture divergence dictates the spatiotemporal distributions of convective precipitation through parameterized entrainment mixing, which generally improves the rainfall diurnal cycle. However, it also limits convective precipitation over the areas with frequent and large-scale divergence in the lower troposphere. The southwestern Amazon is such an area, particularly in the late afternoon, although uncertainty exists in the low-level flow in the simulation and reanalyses. One way to sustain rainfall in the presence of low-level divergence is a convective trigger based on both the moisture and temperature changes by large-scale processes, which is shown to help in reducing the dry bias.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Model Intercomparison Study of Aerosol‐Cloud‐Turbulence Interactions in a Cloud Chamber: 1. Model Results

This study presents the first model intercomparison of aerosol‐cloud‐turbulence interactions in a controlled cloudy Rayleigh‐Bénard Convection chamber environment, utilizing the Pi Chamber at Michigan Technological University. We analyzed simulated cloud chamber‐averaged statistics of microphysics and thermodynamics in a warm‐phase, cloudy environment under steady‐state conditions at varying aerosol injection rates. Simulation results from seven distinct models (DNS, LES, and a 1D turbulence model) were compared. Our findings demonstrate that while all models qualitatively capture observed trends in droplet number concentration, mean radius, and droplet size distributions at both high and low aerosol injection rates, significant quantitative differences were observed. Notably, droplet number concentrations varied by over two orders of magnitude between models for the same injection rates, indicating sensitivities to the model treatments in droplet activation and removal and wall fluxes. Furthermore, inconsistencies in vertical relative humidity profiles and in achieving steady‐state liquid water content suggest the need for further investigation into the mechanisms driving these variations. Despite these discrepancies, the models generally reproduced consistent power‐law relationships between the microphysical variables. This model intercomparison underscores the importance of controlled cloud chamber experiments for validating and improving cloud microphysical parameterizations. Recommendations for future modeling studies are also highlighted, including constraining wall conditions and processes, investigating droplet/aerosol removal (including sidewall losses), and conducting simplified experiments to isolate specific processes contributing to model divergence and reduce model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗