Results for “Land Surface Modeling” — Page 26

NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Teng, William↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the ParFlow–CLM CONUS 1.0 integrated hydrologic model: evaluation of hyper-resolution water balance components across the contiguous United States

Abstract. Recent advancements in computational efficiency and Earth system modeling have awarded hydrologists with increasingly high-resolution models of terrestrial hydrology, which are paramount to understanding and predicting complex fluxes of moisture and energy. Continental-scale hydrologic simulations are, in particular, of interest to the hydrologic community for numerous societal, scientific, and operational benefits. The coupled hydrology–land surface model ParFlow–CLM configured over the continental United States (PFCONUS) has been employed in previous literature to study scale-dependent connections between water table depth, topography, recharge, and evapotranspiration, as well as to explore impacts of anthropogenic aquifer depletion to the water and energy balance. These studies have allowed for an unprecedented process-based understanding of the continental water cycle at high resolution. Here, we provide the most comprehensive evaluation of PFCONUS version 1.0 (PFCONUSv1) performance to date by comparing numerous modeled water balance components with thousands of in situ observations and several remote sensing products and using a range of statistical performance metrics for evaluation. PFCONUSv1 comparisons with these datasets are a promising indicator of model fidelity and ability to reproduce the continental-scale water balance at high resolution. Areas for improvement are identified, such as a positive streamflow bias at gauges in the eastern Great Plains, a shallow water table bias over many areas of the model domain, and low bias in seasonal total water storage amplitude, especially for the Ohio, Missouri, and Arkansas River basins. We discuss several potential sources for model bias and suggest that minimizing error in topographic processing and meteorological forcing would considerably improve model performance. Results here provide a benchmark and guidance for further PFCONUS model development, and they highlight the importance of concurrently evaluating all hydrologic components and fluxes to provide a multivariate, holistic validation of the complete modeled water balance.

O'Neill, Mary M. F. (ORCID:0000000221455165)↗

NASA NTRS2017

Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

drough↗

NASA NTRS2020

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models

Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights into the impacts of global change on the Earth system today and in the future. Beyond their value as research tools, models are also software products and should therefore adhere to certain established software engineering standards. However, scientists are rarely trained as software developers, which can lead to potential deficiencies in software quality like unreadable, inefficient, or erroneous code. The complexity of models, coupled with their integration into broader workflows, also often makes it challenging to reproduce results, evaluate processes, and build upon them. In this paper, we review the state and current practices of the development processes of the state-of-the-art land surface models used by the Global Carbon Budget. We combine the experience of modelers from the respective research groups with the expertise of software engineers from tech companies to outline key principles and tools for improving software quality in research. We explore four main areas: (1) model testing and validation, (2) scientific, technical, and user documentation, (3) version control, continuous integration, and code review, and (4) the portability and reproducibility of workflows. Our review reveals that while modeling communities are incorporating many best practices, significant room for improvement remains in areas such as automated testing, automated documentation, and reproducibility. Therefore, we here identify and promote essential software engineering practices, including numerous examples of practices from within the community that can serve as guidelines for other models and could help streamline processes across the entire community. We conclude with an open-source example implementation of these principles, demonstrating portable and reproducible data flows, a continuous integration setup, and web-based visualizations. This example may serve as a practical resource for model developers, users, and all scientists engaged in scientific programming.

Gregor, Konstantin [Technical Univ. of Munich (Ger↗

NASA NTRS2017

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

albedo↗

NASA NTRS2022

Remote sensing-based vegetation and soil moisture constraints reduce irrigation estimation uncertainty

Understanding the human water footprint and its impact on the hydrological cycle is essential to inform water management under climate change. Despite efforts in estimating irrigation water withdrawals in earth system models, uncertainties and discrepancies exist within and across modeling systems conditioned by model structure, irrigation parameterization, and the choice of input datasets. Achieving model reliability could be much more challenging for data-sparse regions, given limited access to ground truth for parameterization and validation. Here, we demonstrate the potential of utilizing remotely sensed vegetation and soil moisture observations in constraining irrigation estimation in the Noah-MP land surface model. Results indicate that the two constraints together can effectively reduce model sensitivity to the choice of irrigation parameterization by 7%–43%. It also improves the characterization of the spatial patterns of irrigation and its impact on evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture by correcting for vegetation conditions and irrigation timing. This study highlights the importance of utilizing remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation measurements in detecting irrigation signals and correcting for vegetation growth. Integrating the two remote sensing datasets into the model provides an effective and less feature engineered approach to constraining the uncertainty of irrigation modeling. Such strategies can be potentially transferred to other modeling systems and applied to regions across the globe.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2020

Groundwater Drought: Environmental Controls and Monitoring

Arising from a long-term deficit of precipitation, groundwater drought often lags meteorological drought by months to years, depending on climate and subsurface hydrogeological conditions. Due to the paucity of in situ groundwater data in many parts of the world, global monitoring of groundwater storage variations and drought may be best achieved using satellite observations and/or groundwater time series simulated by hydrological models. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions have greatly benefitted the modeling and monitoring of groundwater storage changes and drought at the global scale. In this chapter, we first review environmental controls on the temporal variability of groundwater using in situ data. We then describe an approach that infuses GRACE and GRACE-FO observations into a land surface model for assessing groundwater storage changes and drought globally. We also discuss characteristics of simulated groundwater drought and the limitations of current groundwater drought monitoring approaches.

Bailing Li↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Snow Cover and Freeze/Thaw Observations Over the High Mountain Asia

Toward qualifying hydrologic changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, this study explores the use of a hyper-resolution (1 km) land data assimilation (DA)framework developed within the NASA Land Information System using the Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) forced by the meteorological boundary conditions from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data. Two different sets of DA experiments are conducted:(1) the assimilation of a satellite-derived snow cover map (MOD10A1) and (2) the assimilation of the NASA MEaSUREs landscape freeze/thaw product from 2007 to 2008. The performance of the snow cover assimilation is evaluated via comparisons with available remote sensing-based snow water equivalent product and ground-based snow depth measurements. For example, in the comparison against ground-based snow depth measurements, the majority of the stations (13 of 14) show slightly improved goodness-of-fit statistics as a result of the snow DA, but only four are statistically significant. In addition, comparisons to the satellite-based land surface temperature products (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) show that freeze/thaw DA yields improvements (at certain grid cells) of up to 0.58 K in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 0.77K in the absolute bias (relative to model-only simulations). In the comparison against three ground-based soil temperature measurements along the Himalayas, the bias and the RMSE in the 0-10 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 10 and 7%,respectively. The improvements in the top layer of soil estimates also propagate through the deeper soil layers, where the bias and the RMSE in the 10-40 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 9 and 6%, respectively. However, no statistically significant skill differences are observed for the freeze/thaw DA system in the comparisons against ground-based surface temperature measurements at mid-to-low altitude. Therefore, the two proposed DA schemes show the potential of improving the predictability of snow mass, surface temperature, and soil temperature states across HMA, but more ground-based measurements are still required, especially at high-altitudes, in order to document a more statistically significant improvement as a result of the two DA schemes.

High Mountain Asia↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of Vertical Surface Deformation Estimates Derived From Space-Based Gravimetry, Ground-Based GPS, and Model-Based Hydrologic Loading Over Snow-Dominated Watersheds in the United States

Spatiotemporal variability in Earth's terrestrial water storage (TWS) causes changes in surface deformation. The potential for using ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical displacement observations for estimating TWS is explored through a comparison of vertical displacements derived from space-based gravimetric retrievals, ground-based GPS, and model-based hydrologic estimates. The study presented here focuses on two snow-dominated basins in the Western United States for the years 2003–2016. Seasonal variations are observed in the vertical displacements derived from all three data sets, and the variation is coherent with the changes in hydrologic loading. Good consistency is observed between any two of the three data sets with gravimetric retrievals and hydrologic model estimates providing the highest level of agreement (i.e., all examined stations with correlation coefficient R > 0.70). Vertical displacements derived from gravimetric retrievals and ground-based GPS yielded R > 0.70 for more than 89% of the stations. In addition, it is found that both GPS-derived and space-based, gravimetry-derived vertical displacements clearly reflected the impact of climate variation (i.e., heavy precipitation during 2010–2011 winter followed by prolonged drought). Vertical displacements derived from the hydrologic model highlighted the relatively large precipitation convergence phase during late 2010 to early 2011 at some stations but not the prolonged drought that followed. The results indicate that ground-based GPS observations of vertical displacement have the capability to capture variations in TWS changes, which can be systematically merged in conjunction with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into a land surface model to improve TWS estimates in a follow-up study.

Gaohong Yin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short-term variation in leaf-level water use efficiency in a tropical forest

Here we report the representation of stomatal regulation of transpiration and CO 2 assimilation is key to forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. Given its importance in determining the relationship between forest productivity and climate, accurate and mechanistic model representation of the relationship between stomatal conductance (g s ) and assimilation is crucial. We assess possible physiological and mechanistic controls on the estimation of the g 1 (stomatal slope, inversely proportional to water use efficiency) and g 0 (stomatal intercept) parameters, using diurnal gas exchange surveys and leaf level response curves of six tropical broadleaf evergreen tree species. g 1 estimated from ex-situ response curves averaged 50% less than g 1 estimated from survey data. While g 0 and g 1 varied between leaves of different phenological stages, the trend was not consistent among species. We identified a diurnal trend associated with g 1 and g 0 that significantly improved model projections of diurnal trends in transpiration. The accuracy of modelled g s can be improved by accounting for variation in stomatal behavior across diurnal periods, and between measurement approaches, rather than focusing on phenological variation in stomatal behavior. Additional investigation into the primary mechanisms responsible for diurnal variation in g 1 will be required to account for this phenomena in land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

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