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At least 469 records · Page 26

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA-UVA light aerospace alloy and structures technology program

The report on progress achieved in accomplishing of the NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology Program is presented. The objective is to conduct interdisciplinary graduate student research on the performance of next generation, light weight aerospace alloys and associated thermal gradient structures in close collaboration with researchers. The efforts will produce basic understanding of material behavior, new monolithic and composite alloys, processing methods, solid and fluid mechanics analyses, measurement advances, and a pool of educated graduate students. The presented accomplishments include: research on corrosion fatigue of Al-Li-Cu alloy 2090; research on the strengthening effect of small In additions to Al-Li-Cu alloys; research on localized corrosion of Al-Li alloys; research on stress corrosion cracking of Al-Li-Cu alloys; research on fiber-matrix reaction studies (Ti-1100 and Ti-15-3 matrices containing SCS-6, SCS-9, and SCS-10 fibers); and research on methods for quantifying non-random particle distribution in materials that has led to generation of a set of computer programs that can detect and characterize clusters in particles.

Gangloff, Richard P.↗

The Effects of Spaceflight and a Spaceflight Analog on Neurocognitive Perfonnance: Extent, Longevity, and Neural Bases

We are conducting ongoing experiments in which we are performing structural and functional magnetic resonance brain imaging to identify the relationships between changes in neurocognitive function and neural structural alterations following a six month International Space Station mission and following 70 days exposure to a spaceflight analog, head down tilt bedrest. Our central hypothesis is that measures of brain structure, function, and network integrity will change from pre to post intervention (spaceflight, bedrest). Moreover, we predict that these changes will correlate with indices of cognitive, sensory, and motor function in a neuroanatomically selective fashion. Our interdisciplinary approach utilizes cutting edge neuroimaging techniques and a broad ranging battery of sensory, motor, and cognitive assessments that will be conducted pre flight, during flight, and post flight to investigate potential neuroplastic and maladaptive brain changes in crewmembers following long-duration spaceflight. Success in this endeavor would 1) result in identification of the underlying neural mechanisms and operational risks of spaceflight-induced changes in behavior, and 2) identify whether a return to normative behavioral function following re-adaptation to Earth's gravitational environment is associated with a restitution of brain structure and function or instead is supported by substitution with compensatory brain processes. With the bedrest study, we will be able to determine the neural and neurocognitive effects of extended duration unloading, reduced sensory inputs, and increased cephalic fluid distribution. This will enable us to parse out the multiple mechanisms contributing to any spaceflight-induced neural structural and behavioral changes that we observe in the flight study. In this presentation I will discuss preliminary results from six participants who have undergone the bed rest protocol. These individuals show decrements in balance and functional mobility, and alterations in brain structure and function, in association with extended bed rest.

Seidler, R. D.↗

High-throughput chemical imaging for optimizing biofuel synthesis using synthetic biology (Final Technical Report)

Fatty acids can be produced biosynthetically in microbes and these compounds can serve as precursors to biodiesels and other high value oleochemicals. However, progress on engineering fatty acid biosynthesis, and biofuel synthesis more generally, has been hindered by current quantification methods that are either indirect or not amenable to high-throughput or single-cell resolution screening. In this project, we assembled an interdisciplinary team with complimentary expertise in synthetic biology and microscopy, metabolic engineering, and chemical imaging to address these challenges. We used chemical imaging to directly measure lipid biosynthesis in Escherichia coli engineered to produce fatty acids, obtaining detailed single-cell resolution measurements. We deployed stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) microscopy in concert with multiplexed genome engineering and gene circuit design strategies from synthetic biology to optimize production of fatty acids. These results provided novel insight into cell-to-cell heterogeneity present in biofuel production strains. In addition, we introduced new chemical imaging methods which are label-free and do not require fluorescent reporters. These efforts were complemented by other studied developing foundational tools for regulation and control, which offer excellent potential for advancing researchers’ ability to rapidly design, build, and test strains for enhanced biofuel synthesis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A distinct subpopulation of membrane vesicles in Pseudomonas putida is enriched in enzymes for lignin catabolism

Bacterial membrane vesicles (MVs) mediate diverse microbial processes and are emerging as powerful biomedical tools, but MV population heterogeneity remains an open question. Here, we separate, enumerate, and characterize two MV populations from the soil bacterium Pseudomonas putida during growth with or without lignin-derived carbon, a major carbon source from plant cells in the rhizosphere. Small MVs (MV-S, diameter ~100 nm) were produced from all cultures, whereas large MVs (MV-L, diameter ~300 nm) were observed during the late stationary phase of lignin cultivations. MV-S contained selectively packaged proteins with diverse physiological functions, whereas the MV-L proteome was smaller and largely enriched in outer membrane proteins. Interestingly, enzymes known to mediate the catabolism of lignin-derived aromatic compounds were enriched in MV-S. Overall, this study highlights the need for careful consideration of MV populations in microbial systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CRCNS US-France Research Proposal: Collaborative Research: Encoding reward expectation in Drosophilia

The fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster has been a valuable model for investigating the genetic and neural bases that underlie learning and memory. Early and most current studies use basic behavior conditioning protocols to study learning in controlled laboratory settings. More recently, the ability to transgenically manipulate many of the brain neurons in the fruit fly with exquisite specificity, and the recent knowledge of the synaptic ‘connectome’ of the fruit fly brain, makes these animals almost unique as a comprehensive model for studies of learning, memory and motivated behavior. In fact, the connectome has revealed many types of new connections that had until now been overlooked. Within this context, the thesis of this proposal is that studies of learning and memory will be greatly enhanced by using more sophisticated means for evaluating memory representations, such as have been developed in vertebrates, and combining those studies with information from the connectome guided by computational modelling. We propose to push beyond the boundaries of existing conditioning protocols for fruit flies to investigate more complex memory representations. In particular, we will investigate the function of reinforcement pathways in relation to the absence of expected reinforcement. More specifically, we propose a series of experiments designed to investigate the memory representations in fruit flies when an expected consequence of a Conditioned Stimulus (CS) fails to occur. Although studies have evaluated how this failure can establish extinction memory for the CS, our studies will go beyond studying extinction. Specifically, we predict that in Drosophila when a CS is associated with a failed expectation of an appetitive food reinforcement it will acquire aversive value, and vice versa for a failed expectation of an aversive reinforcer. We combine these studies with manipulations of reinforcement pathways in the CNS inspired from the connectome, iteratively knitted in with established computational models. Intellectual Merit: The concept of reinforcement expectation and incentive contrast have been influential in the development of studies of associative learning in mammals. These questions are particularly challenging to answer in vertebrates because they require exquisite cellular, temporal, and genetic specificity of experimental manipulations. The recent development of work with identified neurons and their connectomes makes the larval and adult fly brains ripe as models for pushing our understanding of neural bases for these higher- order conditioning phenomena. Broader Impacts: Public health: These analyses and the conceptual framework of prediction error processing underlying them have a profound impact on our understanding of reinforcement-related behavior in humans, including monetary rewards and the mnemonic consequences of traumatic experiences, and for pathologies of the dopamine reinforcement system. Educational: This project will provide interdisciplinary training for postdoctoral researchers, Ph.D. and undergraduate students. The PIs will act as co-supervisors or mentors of students working in the different labs via face-to-face and internet-based technologies. We will also work with ASU’s award-winning Ask- A-Biologist program. This is an online science program designed to enrich the learning experiences of students of all ages and to provide classroom material for use by K-12 teachers. We will develop an extension of a game developed under a prior NSF award, and the new game will include modules to teach K-12 students about how insects learn. We will also integrate into the AAB site a program developed by a collaborator (B Gerber) at the Leibniz Institut für Neurobiologie, Magdeburg, and now in use in schools in Germany, to teach K-12 students how to train animals using the fruit fly larval learning paradigm. Underrepresented groups: All PIs will work with their university offices of Academic Diversity and Equal Opportunity for reaching underrepresented students.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aerodynamic optimization of an HSCT configuration using variable-complexity modeling

An approach to aerodynamic configuration optimization is presented for the high-speed civil transport (HSCT). A method to parameterize the wing shape, fuselage shape and nacelle placement is described. Variable-complexity design strategies are used to combine conceptual and preliminary-level design approaches, both to preserve interdisciplinary design influences and to reduce computational expense. Conceptual-design-level (approximate) methods are used to estimate aircraft weight, supersonic wave drag and drag due to lift, and landing angle of attack. The drag due to lift, wave drag and landing angle of attack are also evaluated using more detailed, preliminary-design-level techniques. New, approximate methods for estimating supersonic wave drag and drag due to lift are described. The methodology is applied to the minimization of the gross weight of an HSCT that flies at Mach 2.4 with a range of 5500 n.mi. Results are presented for wing planform shape optimization and for combined wing and fuselage optimization with nacelle placement. Case studies include both all-metal wings and advanced composite wings.

Hutchison, M. G.↗

The Effects of Long Duration Head Down Tilt Bed Rest on Neurocognitive Performance: The Effects of Exercise Interventions

We are conducting ongoing experiments in which we are performing structural and functional magnetic resonance brain imaging to identify the relationships between changes in neurocognitive function and neural structural alterations following a six month International Space Station mission and following 70 days exposure to a spaceflight analog, head down tilt bedrest. Our central hypothesis is that measures of brain structure, function, and network integrity will change from pre to post intervention (spaceflight, bedrest). Moreover, we predict that these changes will correlate with indices of cognitive, sensory, and motor function in a neuroanatomically selective fashion. Our interdisciplinary approach utilizes cutting edge neuroimaging techniques and a broad ranging battery of sensory, motor, and cognitive assessments that will be conducted pre flight, during flight, and post flight to investigate potential neuroplastic and maladaptive brain changes in crewmembers following long-duration spaceflight. Success in this endeavor would 1) result in identification of the underlying neural mechanisms and operational risks of spaceflight-induced changes in behavior, and 2) identify whether a return to normative behavioral function following re-adaptation to Earth's gravitational environment is associated with a restitution of brain structure and function or instead is supported by substitution with compensatory brain processes. Our ongoing bed rest participants are also engaging in exercise studies directed by Dr. Lori Ploutz Snyder. In this presentation, I will briefly highlight the existing literature linking exercise and fitness to brain and behavioral functions. I will also overview the metrics from my study that could be investigated in relation to the exercise and control subgroups.

Seidler, R. D.↗

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response groups. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Master’s project involves several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders across different areas. Identifying the proper tools to use is key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. This project explores some of the key tools used by the integrated team. The integrated project work will primarily take place over the course of 8 weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project will take place off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in other sections of this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used thus far in support of this project includes: 1) Market Surveys and Interviews, 2) Project Charter, 3) Feasibility Study, 4) Swim Lane Diagram, and 5) Knowledge Management Plan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Astrobiology

Astrobiology is the study of the origins, evolution and distribution of life in the universe. It provides a biological perspective to many areas of NASA research, linking such endeavors as the search for habitable planets beyond our solar system, exploration missions to Mars and Europa, and efforts to understand the origin and early evolution of life. Astrobiology addresses three fundamental questions: How does life begin and develop? Does life exist elsewhere in the universe? What is the future of life on Earth and beyond? This talk will address our concepts about the definition of life, how life might have begun, and how our blaspheme and planet have co-evolved for billions of years. The talk will explore how the perspectives gained from interdisciplinary research in the biological, geological and space sciences will prepare us to search for habitable environments and biospheres elsewhere in the Universe.

DesMarais, David↗

Astrobiology

Astrobiology is the study of the origins, evolution and distribution of life in the universe. It provides a biological perspective to many areas of NASA research, linking such endeavors as the search for habitable planets beyond our solar system, exploration missions to Mars and Europa, and efforts to understand the origin and early evolution of life. Astrobiology addresses three fundamental questions: How does life begin and develop? Does life exist elsewhere in the universe What is the future of life on Earth and beyond? This talk will address our concepts about the definition of life, how life might have begun, and how our blaspheme and planet have co-evolved for billions of years. The talk will explore how the perspectives gained from interdisciplinary research in the biological, geological and space sciences will prepare us to search for habitable environments and blasphemes elsewhere in the Universe.

DesMarais, David↗

Spaceflight Effects on Neurocognitive Performance: Extent, Longevity and Neural Bases

We are conducting ongoing experiments in which we are performing structural and functional magnetic resonance brain imaging to identify the relationships between changes in neurocognitive function and neural structural alterations following a six month International Space Station mission. Our central hypothesis is that measures of brain structure, function, and network integrity will change from pre to post spaceflight. Moreover, we predict that these changes will correlate with indices of cognitive, sensory, and motor function in a neuroanatomically selective fashion. Our interdisciplinary approach utilizes cutting edge neuroimaging techniques and a broad ranging battery of sensory, motor, and cognitive assessments that are conducted pre flight, during flight, and post flight to investigate potential neuroplastic and maladaptive brain changes in crewmembers following long-duration spaceflight. Success in this endeavor would 1) result in identification of the underlying neural mechanisms and operational risks of spaceflight-induced changes in behavior, and 2) identify whether a return to normative behavioral function following re-adaptation to Earth's gravitational environment is associated with a restitution of brain structure and function or instead is supported by substitution with compensatory brain processes. We have collected data on several crewmembers and preliminary findings will be presented. Eventual comparison to results from our parallel bed rest study will enable us to parse out the multiple mechanisms contributing to any spaceflight-induced neural structural and behavioral changes that we observe.

Seidler, R. D.↗

Enhancing Human Health Using Space Imagery: Summary of Research

The International Space University (ISU) 2002 Summer Session was conducted in Pomona, California, June 29-August 30, 2002. Ninety-nine professionals and students from thirty-one countries attended the Summer Session. More than half of these students participated in the Student Research Design Project entitled, "HI-STAR: Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources." ISU's interdisciplinary Student Research Design Projects are intended to have great educational value for the participants and, at the same time, to result in a product that will be useful to the field. The HI-STAR project was a success on both counts. The mission of the ISU students' effort on HI-STAR was to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study called "Malaria Early Warning Systems: Concepts, Indicators and Partners." This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offered a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. Malaria disease dynamics and distributions are related to environmental variables. From space, environmental conditions that support the growth of mosquito populations can be monitored, Malaria-specific information can be gathered from satellite-borne remote sensing instruments and ground-based sensors. This information can be integrated via geographic information systems (GIS) into a Malaria Information System (MIS) that can provide assessment analyses and risk maps as output. HI-STAR defines and suggests the development of an active MIS as a low-cost tool to help organizations plan their efforts to fight malaria.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗

A Comparison of Novel Woodstove Catalytic Combustors to Improve Low Temperature Light off and Catalyst Stability at High Temperatures and Corrosive Environments, Including Stability of Catalytic Combustors used in Coastal Environments

Wood heaters with catalytic combustors often emit higher levels of particulate matter (PM) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at startup before the catalytic combustor is at operational temperature. This project aims to advance wood heater catalytic combustor technology by studying degradation mechanisms in failed field catalysts and using those insights to develop an improved catalytic combustor. Findings will provide critical insights into the degradation mechanisms of wood heater catalytic combustors and inform the design of catalysts that deliver improved efficiency, durability, and performance compared to current commercial products. The outcomes of this project will not only improve catalytic combustor technology but also contribute to operational guidelines to extend catalyst lifetimes.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗

Russian-US Partnership to Study the 23-km-diameter El'gygtgyn Impact Crater, Northeast Russia

El'gygytgyn crater, located within Eastern Siberia, is a Pliocene-aged (3.6 Ma), well-preserved impact crater with a rim diameter of roughly 23 km. The target rocks are a coherent assemblage of crystalline rocks ranging from andesite to basalt. At the time of impact the region was forested and the Arctic Ocean was nearly ice-free. A 15-km lake fills the center of the feature and water depths are approximately 175 m. Evidence of shock metamorphism, -- including coesite, fused mineral glasses, and planar deformation features in quartz -- has been reported. This feature is one of the youngest and best preserved complex craters on Earth. Because of its remote Arctic setting, however, El gygytgyn crater remains poorly investigated. The objectives of this three-year project are to establish and maintain a research partnership between scientists from Russia and the United States interested in the El gygytgyn crater. The principal institutions in the U.S. will be the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks and the University of Massachusetts Amherst. The principal institution in Russia will be the North East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute (NEISRI), which is the Far-East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science. Three science tasks are identified for the exchange program: (1) Evaluate impactite samples collected during previous field excursions for evidence of and level of shock deformation. (2) Build a high-resolution digital elevation model for the crater and its surroundings using interferometric synthetic aperture radar techniques on JERS-1, ERS-1, ERS-2, and/or RadarSat range-doppler data. (3) Gather all existing surface data available from Russian and U.S. institutions (DEM, remote sensing image data, field-based lithological and sample maps, and existing geophysical data) and assemble into a Geographic Information Systems database.

Sharpton, Virgil L.↗

Scalable Data-Intensive Geocomputation: A Design for Real-Time Continental Flood Inundation Mapping

The convergence of data-intensive and extreme-scale computing enables an integrated software and data ecosystem for scientific discovery. Developments in this realm will fuel transformative research in data-driven interdisciplinary domains. Geocomputation provides computing paradigms in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for interactive computing of geographic data, processes, models, and maps. Because GIS is data-driven, the computational scalability of a geocomputation workflow is directly related to the scale of the GIS data layers, their resolution and extent, as well as the velocity of the geo-located data streams to be processed. Unique in high user interactivity and low end-to-end latency requirements, geocomputation applications will dramatically benefit from the convergence of high-end data analytics (HDA) and high-performance computing (HPC). The application level challenge, however, is to identify and eliminate computational bottlenecks that arise along a geocomputation workflow. Indeed, poor scalability at any of the workflow components is detrimental to the entire end-to-end pipeline. Here, we study a large geocomputation use case in flood inundation mapping that handles multiple national-scale geospatial datasets and targets low end-to-end latency. We discuss benefits and challenges for harnessing both HDA and HPC for data-intensive geospatial data processing and intensive numerical modeling of geographic processes. We propose an HDA+HPC geocomputation architecture design that couples HDA (e.g., Spark)-based spatial data handling and HPC-based parallel data modeling. Key techniques for coupling HDA and HPC to bridge the two different software stacks are reviewed and discussed.

Liu, Yan↗

Expanding Repository Data Available For Sharing and Knowledge Discovery

Some of the hardest space biology and space health challenges require data-intensive, bioinformatic, meta-analytical, and computer-assisted research approaches. These challenges include examining interdisciplinary space life science research across experiments and across interacting spaceflight hazards (radiation, altered gravity, confinement, hostile-closed environments, distance-duration from Earth). The approaches to confront these challenges involve mining multiple datasets simultaneously from various hierarchical organizations of biological complexity, all while concurrently evaluating how experimental design factors affect endpoints of standard assays. To enable this field, it is essential that principal investigators (PIs) submit data in a structure so it can be maximally re-used. The purpose of the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) is to collect, curate, and make publicly available all non-human space-relevant biological data. ALSDA must also ensure data are open-access, and maximally findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The scope of ALSDA data collected and submitted by PIs include subject and study design metadata, assay metadata parameters, raw and processed assay data, assay imagery/video, and subject-experienced mission data telemetry (radiation, temperature, humidity, acoustics, vibrations, etc.). ALSDA recently integrated into a collaborative group of Open Science projects to facilitate a suite of new tools and workflows that will improve data submission, accessibility, and reusability by implementing digital data submission agreements, and adopting the data management system originally developed by NASA GeneLab. ALSDA intends to bring current biological repository data and all future collected data into this new scientific data reuse reality. This new suite of tools will enable ALSDA to deploy a science curation system using scientific assay configurations for the data submission portal. It will capture essential assay parameters according to established standards in each sub-field within biology. The submission portal expedites data collection by enhancing ease of PI data submission, providing a user interface and specificity for which data is to be submitted. Data submissions can be brought into cutting-edge informatic analysis portals to enable mining of physiological, behavioral, biochemical, and imaging datasets in conjunction with ‘omics-level datasets. As ALSDA datasets are submitted, curated, and published (e.g., micro-computed tomography, histology, pulse oximetry, serum metabolites, magnetic resonance imaging, intraocular pressure, novel object recognition, etc.), the merging together of spaceflight data along this multi-hierarchical complexity of biology will enable informatics and data-intensive approaches resulting in knowledge discoveries across missions, space hazards, and biological disciplines.

Biology↗