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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of the Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) Field Experiment

The Alaskan Layered Pollution And Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) field experiment was a collaborative study designed to improve understanding of pollution sources and chemical processes during winter (cold climate and low-photochemical activity), to investigate indoor pollution, and to study dispersion of pollution as affected by frequent temperature inversions. A number of the research goals were motivated by questions raised by residents of Fairbanks, Alaska, where the study was held. This paper describes the measurement strategies and the conditions encountered during the January and February 2022 field experiment, and reports early examples of how the measurements addressed research goals, particularly those of interest to the residents. Outdoor air measurements showed high concentrations of particulate matter and pollutant gases including volatile organic carbon species. During pollution events, low winds and extremely stable atmospheric conditions trapped pollution below 73 m, an extremely shallow vertical scale. Tethered-balloon-based measurements intercepted plumes aloft, which were associated with power plant point sources through transport modeling. Because cold climate residents spend much of their time indoors, the study included an indoor air quality component, where measurements were made inside and outside a house to study infiltration and indoor sources. In the absence of indoor activities such as cooking and/or heating with a pellet stove, indoor particulate matter concentrations were lower than outdoors; however, cooking and pellet stove burns often caused higher indoor particulate matter concentrations than outdoors. The mass-normalized particulate matter oxidative potential, a health-relevant property measured here by the reactivity with dithiothreiol, of indoor particles varied by source, with cooking particles having less oxidative potential per mass than pellet stove particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structural Changes during the Conversion Reaction of Tungsten Oxide Electrodes with Tailored, Mesoscale Porosity

In-plane tungsten oxide nanostructures, including hexagonally patterned cylinders and holes in a matrix, were fabricated via sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS) on self-assembled block copolymer templates. Using the tailored morphology and porosity of these model electrodes with in situ grazing incidence small angle X-ray scattering, the intrinsic structural change of nanoscale active materials during the conversion reaction of WO 3 + 6Li ↔ W + 3 Li 2 O was investigated at controlled electrochemical conditions. Reversible electrode volume expansion and contraction was observed during lithiation and delithiation cycles, respectively. The potential where electrode’s thickness expansion started was ~1.6 V, which is close to thermodynamically expected one for conversion reaction of WO 3 with lithium (1.65 V). The temporal evolution of the electrode volume at constant electrode potentials revealed high overpotential for bulk lithiation and slow conversion reaction kinetics, despite the tailored porosity of the SIS electrodes. Oxide cylinders showed smaller overall electrode thickness change, likely due to unconstrained lateral volume change, as compared to a matrix with holes. On the other hand, better connectivity and guided volume change of the latter electrode morphology provided improved cycling stability. Additionally, heterogeneity in an electrode, from internal pores and density gradients, was found to aggravate the fragmentation of the electrode during conversion reaction. Insights into oxide conversion reaction kinetics and the relationship between electrode mesostructure and cycling behavior obtained from this study can help guide the more rational design of conversion electrode for high performing batteries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Engineering Magnetic Anisotropy and Emergent Multidirectional Soft Ferromagnetism in Ultrathin Freestanding LaMnO 3 Films

We report the combination of small coercive fields and weak magnetic anisotropy makes soft ferromagnetic films extremely useful for nanoscale devices that need to easily switch spin directions. However, soft ferromagnets are relatively rare, particularly in ultrathin films with thicknesses of a few nanometers or less. We have synthesized large-area, high-quality, ultrathin freestanding LaMnO 3 films on Si and found unexpected soft ferromagnetism along both the in-plane and out-of-plane directions when the film thickness was reduced to 4 nm. We argue that the vanishing magnetic anisotropy between the two directions is a consequence of two coexisting magnetic easy axes in different atomic layers of the LaMnO 3 film. Spectroscopy measurements reveal a change in Mn valence from 3+ in the film interior to approximately 2+ at the surfaces where considerable hydrogen infiltration occurs due to the water dissolving process. First-principles calculations show that protonation of LaMnO 3 decreases valence and Our the Mn switches the magnetic easy axis from in-plane to out-of-plane as the Mn valence approaches 2+ from its 3+ bulk value. Our work demonstrates that ultrathin freestanding films can exhibit functional properties that are absent in homogeneous materials, concomitant with their convenient compatibility with Si-based devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-Voltage Haze Tuning with Cellulose-Network Liquid Crystal Gels

Being key components of the building envelope, glazing products with tunable optical properties are in great demand because of their potential for boosting energy efficiency and privacy features while enabling the main function of allowing natural light indoors. However, windows and skylights with electric switching of haze and transparency are rare and often require high voltages or electric currents, as well as not fully meet the stringent technical requirements for glazing applications. Here, by introducing a predesigned gel material we describe an approach dubbed “Haze-Switch” that involves low-voltage tuning of the haze coefficient in a broad range of 2–90% while maintaining high visible-range optical transmittance. The approach is based on a nanocellulose fiber gel network infiltrated by a nematic liquid crystal, which can be switched between polydomain and monodomain spatial patterns of optical axis via a dielectric coupling between the nematic domains and the applied external electric field. By utilizing a nanocellulose network of nanofibers ~10 nm in diameter we achieve <10 V dielectric switching and <2% haze in the clear state, as needed for applications in window products. Finally, we characterize physical properties relevant to window and smart glass technologies, like the color rendering index, haze coefficient, and switching times, demonstrating that our material and envisaged products can meet the stringent requirements of the glass industry, including applications such as privacy windows, skylights, sunroofs, and daylighting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic Band Structure Engineering of Graphene Using Block Copolymer-Templated Dielectric Superlattices

Engineering the electronic band structure of two-dimensional (2D) materials by imposing spatially periodic superlattice (SL) potentials opens a pathway to unconventional electronics. Nanopatterning the gate electrode or surface dielectric near 2D crystals provides a powerful strategy for realizing electrostatically tunable “remote” SLs with flexibility in lattice design. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of block copolymer (BCP)-templated dielectric nanopatterns for fabricating etch-free high-grade metal oxide SLs. Alumina (AlO x ) nanopatterns with hexagonal symmetry and a 38 nm SL wavelength are produced as a model material by directly converting a self-assembled BCP film via block-selective vapor phase infiltration. Despite micrometer-scale rotational disorder inherent to BCP self-assembly, electronic transport measurements of graphene reveal replica Dirac points at zero field and Hofstadter mini-gaps under finite magnetic fields. These results indicate the successful formation of remote SL potentials in graphene resulting from optimized AlO x nanopattern fabrication to achieve consistent lattice symmetry and periodicity at a macroscopic scale. The findings of this study, combined with the versatile, scalable, and cost-effective nature of BCP nanopatterning, highlight the potential of BCP-templated nanostructures for remote SL engineering in 2D crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Mechanisms of Twisted Carbon Nanotube Yarns Probed In Situ by Soft X-rays during Tensile Loading

Piecing together carbon nanotubes (CNTs) into assemblies has so far failed to achieve the same elite strength performance metrics as individual CNTs, highlighting a critical deficiency in understanding the effects that the processing of individual nanostructures have on the performance of their derived macroscale assemblies, thereby hindering the development of a process-structure-performance map for these materials. Here, in this work, we propose a method to decouple the distribution orientation of nanoscale tortuosity and the microscale twist of CNT dry-spun yarns under applied loads via in situ soft X-ray probing at high energy (1200 eV) and low energy (280 eV), respectively. With this decoupling enabled by in situ soft X-ray scattering, we acquired a deeper understanding of the deformation mechanisms of these yarns. We found that for untreated yarns, the twist angle of collective CNT bundles at the macroscale is more sensitive to applied stress than the nanoscale alignment distribution. We also found that increasing nominal twist densities of yarns as well as increased strengthening via plasma treatments and polymer infiltration act to decrease the yarns’ sensitivity to realignment at the nanoscale and prevent failure by the slip mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Use of Boron- and Hafnium-Modified Polysilazanes for Ceramic Matrix Minicomposites

In this study, the potential of polymer-derived Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) is demonstrated by addition of thin ceramic coatings on Carbon Fiber (CF) bundles. Boron- and hafnium- modified polysilazane liquid precursors were synthesized and used to infiltrate the fiber bundles of CF to fabricate lab-scale Si(B)CN/CF and Si(Hf)CN/CF CMC mini-composites, respectively. The precursor-to-ceramic conversion process was achieved at 800°C with crosslinked precursor to ceramic yield of approx. 90% in Ar environment. The Si(B)CN/CF contained Si-N and B-N bonds, while Si-N and Hf-O-Si bonds were observed for Si(Hf)CN/CF sample with uniform and dense surfaces. Room-temperature tensile tests showed that the Si(Hf)CN/CF sample could reach a tensile strength of ~790 MPa and elastic modulus of 66.88 GPa among the composites. Oxidation study of the Si(Hf)CN/CF mini-composites showed higher stability compared to SiCN/CF and Si(B)CN/CF mini-composites up to 1500°C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Commodity Thermoplastic Elastomer-Enabled Templated Synthesis of Large-Pore Ordered Mesoporous Materials

Fabrication of ordered mesoporous materials (OMMs) has predominantly relied on templating-based methods. However, these methods are constrained by several limitations, especially the limited pore sizes attainable with commercially available surfactants used as structure-directing agents. To unlock the full potential of the OMMs, it is essential to develop synthetic strategies that facilitate the production of large-pore OMMs using scalable processes and cost-effective precursors. This work demonstrates the use of thermoplastic elastomer (TPE)-derived carbon replicas for synthesizing ordered mesoporous silica (OMS) and metal oxides (OMMOs) via precursor infiltration and template removal. The nanostructural evolution of the resulting inorganic materials was systematically investigated. Specifically, using tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS) as a silica precursor, this method can produce an OMS with relatively large pores. To establish the generalizability of this process, the fabrication approach was extended to other commercially available TPEs with varied chemical compositions and molecular weights while consistently resulting in ordered structures. Additionally, this synthetic strategy can be successfully applied to the production of OMMOs, including tin and titanium oxide matrix chemistries, yielding pore sizes of 16.0 and 19.2 nm, respectively. By developing a general method and using low-cost precursors, this work presents a scalable approach for fabricating large-pore OMMs with tunable pore textures and matrix chemistries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atomistic Mechanisms of Stress-Dependent Molten Salt Corrosion in NiCr Alloys

Ni-based structural alloys in molten salt environments often experience simultaneous mechanical loading and corrosive attack, yet the mechanisms governing stress-corrosion interactions remain unclear. Prior studies largely emphasize tensile stress, while the role of compressive stress has received limited attention. Here, reactive molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the coupled effects of applied strain and corrosion in Ni 0.75 Cr 0.25 exposed to molten FLiNaK at 800 °C. A Σ5(210) grain boundary model is subjected to tensile (+4%) to compressive (−4%) uniaxial strains, and corrosion behavior is evaluated through fluorine adsorption, charge redistribution, and grain boundary evolution. Tensile strain accelerates intergranular corrosion susceptibility by reducing local atomic packing through elastic dilation and increasing excess free volume at the grain boundary, which enhances atomic mobility and salt infiltration. In contrast, compressive strain can suppress corrosion by promoting the formation of a ridge-like surface layer along the grain boundary, limiting salt access to the underlying alloy. These results provide atomistic insight into how stress states influence grain boundary corrosion in molten salts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Polarization-Insensitive Medium-Switchable Holographic Metasurfaces

The adoption of metasurfaces has led to revolutionary advances in holography due to improved compactness, integrability, and performance. Switchable meta-holograms projecting different replay field images in a controllable manner are highly desirable. Still, existing technologies generally rely on the use of polarized light and additional optics to facilitate switching. Consequently, the potential benefits afforded through the use of metasurfaces are limited both by the system complexity and a fixed relationship between the optical input and output. In this manuscript, we demonstrate polarization-insensitive metasurfaces encoding arbitrary and independent holograms, which can be switched between by changing the refractive index of the infiltration medium while maintaining identical illumination conditions. Finally, by sidestepping the requirements for high-performance light sources, switching optics, or delicate alignment, this approach points toward ultracompact and cost-effective switchable meta-holograms for various practical applications, such as holographic image projection, eye-perceptible sensors, optical information storage, processing, and security.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure–Transport Properties Governing the Interplay in Humidity-Dependent Mixed Ionic and Electronic Conduction of Conjugated Polyelectrolytes

Polymeric mixed ionic-electronic conductors (MIECs) are of broad interest in the field of energy storage and conversion, opto-electronics, and bioelectronics. A class of polymeric MIECs are conjugated polyelectrolytes (CPEs), which possess a p-conjugated backbone imparting electronic transport characteristics along with side chains comprised of a pendant ionic group to allow for ionic transport. Here, our study focuses on the humidity-dependent structure-transport properties of poly[3-(potassium-n-alkanoate) thiophene-2,5-diyl] (P3KnT) CPEs with varied side-chain lengths of n = 4, 5, 6, and 7. UV-Vis spectroscopy along with electronic paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy reveal the infiltration of water leads to a hydrated, self-doped state that allows for electronic transport. The resulting humidity-dependent ionic conductivity (σ i ) of the thin films shows a monotonic increase with relative humidity (RH) while electronic conductivity (σ e ) follows a nonmonotonic profile. The values of σ e continue to rise with increasing RH reaching a local maximum after which σ e begins to decrease. P3KnTs with higher n values demonstrate greater resiliency to increasing RH before suffering decrease in σ e . This drop in σ e is attributed to two factors. First, disruption of the locally-ordered π-stacked domains observed through in situ humidity-dependent grazing incidence wide angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS) experiments can account for some of the decrease in σ e . A second and more dominant factor is attributed to the swelling of the amorphous domains where electronic transport pathways connecting ordered domains are impeded. P3K7T is most resilient to swelling (based on ellipsometry and water uptake measurements) where sufficient hydration allows for high σ i (1.0 × 10 -1 S/cm at 95% RH) while not substantially disrupting σ e (1.7 × 10 -2 S/cm at 85% RH and 8.0 × 10 -3 S/cm at 95% RH). Overall, our study highlights the complexity of balancing electronic and ionic transport in hydrated CPEs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-Electron Transfer Stabilizes Metastable Alane in a Bipyridine-Functionalized MOF Nanopore

Nanoconfinement of metastable hydrides such as alane (AlH 3 ) in functionalized porous frameworks represents a promising yet largely untapped strategy for high-capacity energy storage. Despite its potential, the underlying mechanisms responsible for the thermodynamic stabilization of metastable hydrides are poorly understood. Here, in this study, concepts from solution Lewis acid–base chemistry were applied to a crystalline metal–organic framework (MOF) to stabilize AlH 3 . The long-range order and synthetically versatile pore chemistry enabled us to reveal the intimate details of the hydride-host interactions. Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) of AlH 3 -infiltrated UiO-67bpy (Zr 6 O 4 (OH) 4 (bpydc) 6 ; bpydc 2– = 2,2′-bipyridine-5,5′-dicarboxylate) confirms that the framework maintains its crystallinity up to 250 °C and is stable under 70 MPa H 2 pressure. We find that thermodynamic stabilization arises from coupled single-electron and hydrogen-atom transfer from AlH 3 to bipyridine-containing linkers. Electron paramagnetic resonance detects a bipyridyl radical with an anisotropic g-tensor (g values of 2.00132, 2.00215, and 2.00275), consistent with Bader charge analysis predicting 0.82 e – transferred from the hydride to the MOF. These findings establish critical structure–property relationships underpinning AlH 3 stabilization and suggest general strategies for tuning the thermodynamics and kinetics of metastable materials.

Shivanna, Mohana [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Perennial Bioenergy Crops in Version 5 of the Community Land Model Based on Site‐Level Observations in the Central Midwestern United States

Abstract With projected expansion of biofuel production at a global scale, there is a pressing need to develop adequate representation of bioenergy crops in land surface models to help effectively quantify the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of its associated land use changes. This study implements two new perennial bioenergy crops, Miscanthus and switchgrass, into the Community Land Model Version 5 based on site‐level observations from the midwestern United States by modifying parameters associated with photosynthesis, phenology, allocation, decomposition, and carbon cost of nitrogen uptake and integrating concomitantly land management practices. Sensitivity analyses indicate that carbon and energy fluxes of the perennial crops are most sensitive to photosynthesis and phenology parameters. Validation of simulated fluxes against site‐level measurements demonstrates that the model is capable of capturing the overall patterns of energy and carbon fluxes, as well as physiological transitions from leaf emergence to senescence. Compared to annual crops, perennial crops feature longer growing season, greater leaf areas, and higher productivity, leading to increased transpiration, lower annual runoff, and larger carbon uptake. The model simulations suggest that with higher CO 2 assimilation rates and lower demands for nutrients and water, high‐yielding perennial crops are promising alternatives of bioenergy feedstocks compared to traditional annual crops not only for mitigating climate change but also for environmental conservation purposes by reducing fertilizer application and therefore alleviating surface‐ and ground‐water contaminations. Although the local‐scale simulations shed light on potential benefits of using perennial grasses as bioenergy feedstocks, quantifying consequences of their plantations at larger scales warrants additional investigation.

Cheng, Yanyan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Monitoring Shows that Spatial Heterogeneity in Thermohydrological Dynamics Reshapes a Transitional Permafrost System

Climate change is causing rapid changes of Arctic ecosystems. Yet, data needed to unravel complex subsurface processes are very rare. Using geophysical and in-situ sensing, this study closes an observational gap associated with thermohydrological dynamics in discontinuous permafrost systems. It highlights the impact of vegetation and snow thickness distribution on subsurface thermohydrological properties and processes. Large snow accumulation near tall shrubs insulates the ground and allows for rapid and downward heat flow. Thinner snowpack above graminoid results in surficial freezing and prevents water from infiltrating into the subsurface. Analyzing short term disturbances, we found that lateral flow could be a driving factor in talik formation. Inter-annual measurements show that deep permafrost temperatures increased by about 0.2°C over two years. The results, which suggest that snow-vegetation-subsurface processes are tightly coupled, will be useful for improving predictions of Arctic feedback to climate change, including how subsurface thermohydrology influences CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Groundwater Withdrawals on River Regulation: Example From the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub-basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in the basin. This work aims to understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on the spatiotemporal patterns of modeling regulated streamflow in the CRB using a modified version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model integrated with a water management component that accounts for groundwater withdrawals, irrigation demands, and reservoir operation (VIC-GIRR). The VIC-GIRR simulations showed that considering additional groundwater withdrawals would alleviate the stress of irrigation water deficit in the Snake River Basin with an average reduction of 10 km 3 /year. Such a reduction in water deficit resulted in slight streamflow increase over the CRB with maximum increase up to 40% during dry period in certain locations. We also note that the implementation of groundwater withdrawal does not, however, improve the overall model performance in long-term averaged streamflow and storage predictions. Our results highlight the efforts needed to examine additional important processes in representing the interactions between water withdrawals and reservoir operations. Such efforts will aid in better simulation of multi-reservoir system and improve effectiveness for agricultural productivity, power generation, flood control, and navigation purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗