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Satellite-Assisted Particulate Matter (SAPM) for the Models, In situ, and Remote Sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) Working Group

Models, In situ, and Remote sensing of Aerosols (MIRA) is an international working group that provides a forum for collaborations amongst these three atmospheric aerosol communities. MIRA consists of a collection of interdisciplinary and independently funded Topic/Project groups with clear goals and generally characterized by requests for additional scientific data. The Satellite-Assisted Particulate Matter (SAPM) Topic group focuses on the study of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as it is a major contributor to air pollution and negatively impacts human health. Our group aims to provide intercomparisons of various methods and techniques for estimating surface PM2.5 assisted by satellite remote sensors (passive and active), global aerosol models, and in situ aerosol measurements. The overall motivation of our work is to enhance PM2.5 coverage beyond in situ ground stations, which can be limited. In this presentation, we provide an overview of various PM2.5 estimation approaches by current SAPM team members, as each approach has its own strengths and limitations. One approach uses near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals from the spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and an assumed value of mass extinction efficiency to derive PM2.5 concentrations (Toth et al 2019). A study using this method found a promising agreement (R=0.60; slope=0.89) with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in situ PM2.5 measurements over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for a 12-year (2007-2018) period (Toth et al 2022). In a different approach combining spaceborne lidar and a model, the Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar and Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model are blended in an ensemble variational assimilation scheme to retrieve aerosol extinction and convert speciated mass concentrations to total PM2.5. A recent study (Matus et al in prep.) found agreement within 2 μg/m3 over the CONUS on the 2016 annual mean when compared to EPA ground-based measurements. Another study explored trends in city aerosol optical depth (AOD) from a spaceborne passive remote sensor, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and found that these trends agree well with trends in city surface PM2.5, which provides confidence in the use of city AOD for city PM2.5 trend studies (Vohra et al 2021). In a follow-on study, steep and significant trends (~2.5 to 7.8% a-1) in AOD are found for several South Asian cities (e.g., Bangalore and Hyderabad), suggesting rapid growth in PM2.5 (Vohra et al 2022). Also in this presentation, we report results on our current collective SAPM study of India, a country that exhibits high levels of PM2.5 pollution. We show the temporal (i.e., seasonal) and spatial variability of PM2.5 over India using the CALIOP and CATS+model approaches, comparisons between the estimated PM2.5 from the retrieval schemes, and validation with in situ PM2.5 ground-based observations from the Central Pollution Control Board in India. This region provides us with an excellent case study to test our PM2.5 retrievals in heavily polluted scenes and over a complex and varying topography. The SAPM Topic group actively seeks international participants/collaborators in our group, including those working with in situ aerosol measurements (e.g., ACTRIS). We are interested in aerosol datasets in order to either improve our PM2.5 estimates from various approaches (e.g., using in situ mass scattering/absorption coefficient and aerosol hygroscopic properties for various aerosol species) and/or validate the PM2.5 estimates (e.g., using in situ ground-based PM2.5 concentrations).

Travis D Toth↗

Search for Lightly Ionizing Particles in SuperCDMS and simulation of neutron backgrounds

The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) is a direct-detection dark matter search experiment that primarily aims to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using state-of-the-art solid-state detection technology. During its operation at the Soudan underground laboratory, germanium detectors were operated with high bias voltage mode known as the CDMS low ionization threshold experiment (CDMSlite) to achieve below-keV thresholds. CDMSlite, for being able to measure small energy depositions in detectors, also provides sensitivity to Lightly Ionizing Particles (LIPs) with very small fractional charges. This thesis will discuss an analysis to search LIPs with the data acquired in CDMSlite mode. An important component for LIPs search is the expected energy-deposition distributions for LIPs falling on the CDMSlite detector. In this thesis, a simulation framework to calculate the energy-deposition distributions is developed. This thesis presents first direct-detection limits on the intensity of cosmogenic LIPs with electric charges smaller than e /(3 × 10 5 ) as well as the strongest limits for charges ≤ e /160, with a minimum intensity of 1.36 × 10 -7 cm -2 s -1 sr -1 at charge e /160.In any rare-event search experiment, understanding background is crucial. Neutrons capable of mimicking dark matter signals are a major background for any dark matter search experiment. A simulation study to estimate the neutron background for an India based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory (JUSL) is performed. The experiment at JUSL will be the first phase of a proposed Dark matter search at India-based Neutrino Observatory (DINO). It will be a direct detection experiment with primary aims to search for WIMPs as dark matter candidates. In this thesis, we discuss the methodology of estimating neutron flux at JUSL and report the results. The total neutron flux reaching the laboratory above 1 MeV energy threshold is found to be 5.76(±0.69) × 10 -6 cm -2 s -1 . The impact of neutron background on the sensitivity of the experiment to detect dark matter at JUSL is also discussed. The thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Lightly Ionizing Particle (LIPs). The analysis to search LIPs in SuperCDMS is briefly outlined in the chapter. This chapter also discusses the importance of neutron background estimates in a dark matter search experiment, more specifically, in the context of a proposed India-based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory. In Chapter 2, the SuperCDMS experiment is introduced. In Chapter 3, the framework developed to perform simulations for Lightly Ionizing Particles is presented. In Chapter 4, the LIPs search analysis with the CDMSlite data and the results are discussed. In Chapter 5, the simulation of neutron background and the feasibility of dark-matter search at JUSL is discussed. Finally, conclusions from all the results discussed in this thesis are presented in Chapter 6.

Banik, Samir↗

Search for lightly ionizing particles in superCDMS and simulation of neutron backgrounds

The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) is a direct-detection dark matter search experiment that primarily aims to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) using state-of-the-art solid-state detection technology. During its operation at the Soudan underground laboratory, germanium detectors were operated with high bias voltage mode known as the CDMS low ionization threshold experiment (CDMSlite) to achieve below-keV thresholds. CDMSlite, for being able to measure small energy depositions in detectors, also provides sensitivity to Lightly Ionizing Particles (LIPs) with very small fractional charges. This thesis will discuss an analysis to search LIPs with the data acquired in CDMSlite mode. An important component for LIPs search is the expected energy-deposition distributions for LIPs falling on the CDMSlite detector. In this thesis, a simulation framework to calculate the energy-deposition distributions is developed. This thesis presents first direct-detection limits on the intensity of cosmogenic LIPs with electric charges smaller than e/(3 × 105) as well as the strongest limits for charges ≤ e/160, with a minimum intensity of 1.36 × 10-7 cm-2s-1sr-1 at charge e/160.In any rare-event search experiment, understanding background is crucial. Neutrons capable of mimicking dark matter signals are a major background for any dark matter search experiment. A simulationmore » study to estimate the neutron background for an India based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory (JUSL) is performed. The experiment at JUSL will be the first phase of a proposed Dark matter search at India-based Neutrino Observatory (DINO). It will be a direct detection experiment with primary aims to search for WIMPs as dark matter candidates. In this thesis, we discuss the methodology of estimating neutron flux at JUSL and report the results. The total neutron flux reaching the laboratory above 1 MeV energy threshold is found to be 5.76(±0.69) × 10-6 cm-2s-1. The impact of neutron background on the sensitivity of the experiment to detect dark matter at JUSL is also discussed. The thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Lightly Ionizing Particle (LIPs). The analysis to search LIPs in SuperCDMS is briefly outlined in the chapter. This chapter also discusses the importance of neutron background estimates in a dark matter search experiment, more specifically, in the context of a proposed India-based dark matter search experiment at Jaduguda Underground Science Laboratory. In Chapter 2, the SuperCDMS experiment is introduced. In Chapter 3, the framework developed to perform simulations for Lightly Ionizing Particles is presented. In Chapter 4, the LIPs search analysis with the CDMSlite data and the results are discussed. In Chapter 5, the simulation of neutron background and the feasibility of dark-matter search at JUSL is discussed. Finally, conclusions from all the results discussed in this thesis are presented in Chapter 6.« less

Banik, Samir↗

Aerosol Properties and Radiative Forcing over Kanpur during Severe Aerosol Loading Conditions

Atmospheric aerosols over India exhibit large spatio-temporal fluctuation driven by the local monsoon system, emission rates and seasonally-changed air masses. The northern part of India is well-known for its high aerosol loading throughout the year due to anthropogenic emissions, dust influence and biomass burning. On certain circumstances and, under favorable weather conditions, the aerosol load can be severe, causing significant health concerns and climate implications. The present work analyzes the aerosol episode (AE) days and examines the modification in aerosol properties and radiative forcing during the period 2001-2010 based on Kanpur-AERONET sun photometer data. As AEs are considered the days having daily-mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) above the decadal mean + 1 STD (standard deviation); the threshold value is defined at 0.928. The results identify 277 out of 2095 days (13.2%) of AEs over Kanpur, which are most frequently observed during post-monsoon (78 cases, 18.6%) and monsoon (76, 14.7%) seasons due to biomass-burning episodes and dust influence, respectively. On the other hand, the AEs in winter and pre-monsoon are lower in both absolute and percentage values (65, 12.5% and 58, 9.1%, respectively). The modification in aerosol properties on the AE days is strongly related to season. Thus, in post-monsoon and winter the AEs are associated with enhanced presence of fine-mode aerosols and Black Carbon from anthropogenic pollution and any kind of burning, while in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons they are mostly associated with transported dust. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) calculated using SBDART shows much more surface (~-69 to -97 Wm-2) and Top of Atmosphere cooling (-20 to -30 Wm-2) as well as atmospheric heating (~43 to 71 Wm-2) during the AE days compared to seasonal means. These forcing values are mainly controlled by the higher AODs and the modified aerosol characteristics (Angstrom α, SSA) during the AE days in each season and may cause severe climate implications over Ganges Basin with further consequences on atmospheric heating, cloud microphysics, monsoon rainfall and melting of Himalayan glaciers.

India↗

Facilitating communities in designing and using their own community health impact assessment tool

Reducing health inequities and improving the health of communities require an informed public that is aware of the social determinants of health and how policies and programs have an impact on the health of their communities. People Assessing Their Health (PATH) is a process that uses community-driven health impact assessment to build the capacity of people to become active participants in the decisions that affect the well-being of their community. The PATH process is both a health promotion and a community development approach that builds people's ability to bring critical analysis to a situation and to engage in effective social action to bring about desired change. Because it increases analytical skills and provides communities with their own unique tool to assess the potential impact of projects, programs or policies on the health and well-being of their community it is an empowering process. PATH was originally used in three communities in northeastern Nova Scotia, Canada in 1996 when the Canadian health care system was being restructured to a more decentralized system. Since then it has been used in other communities in Nova Scotia and India. This paper will describe the PATH process and the use of the community health impact assessment as well as the methodology used in the PATH process. The lessons learned from PATH's experiences of building capacity among the community in Canada and India will be presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of low-cost monitors to assess household air pollution

Highlights: • We assessed PM{sub 2.5} and CO low-cost monitors in semi-controlled and field studies. • Devices experienced high failure rate and susceptibility to environmental changes. • Low-cost monitors tested may not be ready to replace more established methods. Exposure to household air pollution is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. However, due to the lack of validated low-cost monitors with long-lasting batteries in indoor environments, most epidemiologic studies use self-reported data or short-term household air pollution assessments as proxies of long-term exposure. We evaluated the performance of three low-cost monitors measuring fine particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) and carbon monoxide (CO) in a wood-combustion experiment conducted in one household of Spain for 5 days (including the co-location of 2 units of HAPEX and 3 units of TZOA-R for PM{sub 2.5} and 3 units of EL-USB-CO for CO; a total of 40 unit-days). We used Spearman correlation (ρ) and Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC) to assess accuracy of low-cost monitors versus equivalent research-grade devices. We also conducted a field study in India for 1 week (including HAPEX in 3 households and EL-USB-CO in 4 households; a total of 49 unit-days). Correlation and agreement at 5-min were moderate-high for one unit of HAPEX (ρ = 0.73 / CCC = 0.59), for one unit of TZOA-R (ρ = 0.89 / CCC = 0.62) and for three units of EL-USB-CO (ρ = 0.82–0.89 / CCC = 0.66–0.91) in Spain, although the failure or malfunction rate among low-cost units was high in both settings (60% of unit-days in Spain and 43% in India). Low-cost monitors tested here are not yet ready to replace more established exposure assessment methods in long-term household air pollution epidemiologic studies. More field validation is needed to assess evolving sensors and monitors with application to health studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the geomechanical stability of interbedded hydrate-bearing sediments under gas production by depressurization at NGHP-02 Site 16

Establishing the geomechanical stability of marine sediments in the vicinity of a production well is one of the key design considerations in planning offshore gas production from marine hydrate reservoirs. This work presents an assessment of the sediment stability at India's National Gas Hydrate Program, Expedition 2 (NGHP-02) Site 16 Area B offshore eastern India, for which gas production is to be carried out by depressurization. One important feature of the study is that extensive calibration of constitutive model parameters has been conducted based on laboratory test data from pressured core samples. From analysis perspective, the site is challenging because the hydrate reservoir consists of thin layers of hydrate-bearing sands interbedded with mud. Moreover, depressurization at the depth of a reservoir more than 2750 m below sea surface will lead to a pore pressure drop, and accordingly an effective confining stress increase as high as 25 MPa. In dealing with thin interbedded hydrate-bearing strata, meshing requirements for flow and geomechanical analysis are quite different from those for reservoirs with thicker massive layers, An axisymmetric model and one-way coupling simulations were thus adopted for this study, in which the geomechanical study utilizes pore pressure and hydrate saturation output from the flow study, but the flow study does not takes the porosity changes from the geomechanical analysis. Instead, the reduction of porosity due to sediment deformation in the flow study is based on a pressure-dependent pore compressibility relationship derived from geomechanical modeling. The rationality is validated through back computing the pore compressibility from the geomechanical deformation results. Finally, the study shows that large compression in the reservoir will result in movement of the sediments from above and below, as well as laterally in smaller magnitudes; and the sediment is deemed stable during the gas production period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Underground laboratories in Asia

Deep underground laboratories in Asia have been making huge progress recently because underground sites provide unique opportunities to explore the rare-event phenomena for the study of dark matter searches, neutrino physics and nuclear astrophysics as well as the multi-disciplinary researches based on the low radioactive environments. The status and perspectives of Kamioda underground observatories in Japan, the existing Y2L and the planned CUP in Korea, India-based Neutrino Observatory (INO) in India and China JinPing Underground Laboratory (CJPL) in China will be surveyed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variability of Photovoltaic Power in the State of Gujarat Using High Resolution Solar Data

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resource Analysis of NP Kunta Solar Park Site (White Paper)

India has set a target of 175 GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030. Flexibility is key for efficient integration of renewables. The modern-day RE plants are grid-friendly and can also provide this flexibility. A pilot to demonstrate this flexibility by implementing automatic generation control (AGC) at a solar plant is being done by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under USAID’s Greening the Grid (GTG) Program and Renewable Integration & Sustainable Energy (RISE) initiative. This paper presents the resource variability analysis of the 250-MW NP Kunta solar plant site where the AGC pilot project is being implemented. This paper also demonstrates the use of publicly available resource quality data, which can be utilized by various stakeholders to better understand the variability of any existing or potential RE site in India and possibly increase confidence in decisions or help to understand the impacts that can be expected.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Role of Renewable Energy, Storage, and Demand Response in Karnataka's Power Sector Future

Karnataka ranks fourth among Indian states in installed capacity of renewable energy, which accounts for over 50% of its resource mix. The state is positioned to play a leading role in India's energy transition and contribute to meeting national targets for renewable energy thanks, in part, to ambitious state goals to develop Karnataka's abundant zero carbon energy resources and plans to phase out new investments in thermal plants. Power system stakeholders in Karnataka are faced with the challenge of planning a generation portfolio that accounts for the variability of wind and solar resources, meets increasing and shifting electricity demand, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. The objective of this study is to evaluate least-cost pathways for Karnataka's electric power system through 2050. The capacity expansion model developed for this study identifies power system investment and operational decisions for every year (2020-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation of the state of Karnataka. The study led to five high-level results and provides a framework for recurring planning studies to meet changing system conditions and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Interconnection of Distributed Energy Resources in the Indian Context: IEEE 1547-2018 Adaptation for Locally-Appropriate Grid Code Development

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) in India and ambitious renewable energy goals set forth by the Indian government have created the need for appropriate distribution interconnection standards to ensure continued system stability, reliability, and resilience. Existing DER interconnection codes in India, at the time of publishing this report, lack many of the critical grid support functionalities for DERs which may protect bulk system stability, such as event ride-through provisions, frequency droop control, or appropriate trip thresholds given the increasing importance of distributed generation. The formal adoption of IEEE 1547-2018 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) marks a significant step towards achieving appropriate interconnection of DERs, though the implementation of such a standard must be accompanied with careful consideration of the current codes, regulations, and operation of the Indian power system. Studies on the performance of the functionalities within 1547-2018, which properly incorporate local operating conditions, can inform decisions related to the adoption and adaptation of the clauses present in the standard. This report outlines several of these key considerations for stakeholders and provides analyses illustrating the performance of grid support functionalities on typical Indian distribution feeders.

1547↗

Observations of Particle Number Size Distributions and New Particle Formation in Six Indian Locations

Atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) is a crucial process driving aerosol number concentrations in the atmosphere; it can significantly impact the evolution of atmospheric aerosol and cloud processes. This study analyses at least 1 year of asynchronous particle number size distributions from six different locations in India. We also analyze the frequency of NPF and its contribution to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. We found that the NPF frequency has a considerable seasonal variability. At the measurement sites analyzed in this study, NPF frequently occurs in March–May (pre-monsoon, about 21 % of the days) and is the least common in October–November (post-monsoon, about 7 % of the days). Considering the NPF events in all locations, the particle formation rate (J_(SDS)) varied by more than 2 orders of magnitude (0.001–0.6 /cu.cm s) and the growth rate between the smallest detectable size and 25 nm (GR_(SDS-25 nm)) by about 3 orders of magnitude (0.2–17.2 nm/h). We found that JSDS was higher by nearly 1 order of magnitude during NPF events in urban areas than mountain sites. GRSDS did not show a systematic difference. Our results showed that NPF events could significantly modulate the shape of particle number size distributions and CCN concentrations in India. The contribution of a given NPF event to CCN concentrations was the highest in urban locations (4.3 × 10^(3) /cu.cm per event and 1.2 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event for 50 and 100 nm, respectively) as compared to mountain background sites (2.7 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event and 1.0 × 10^(3)/cu.cm per event, respectively). We emphasize that the physical and chemical pathways responsible for NPF and factors that control its contribution to CCN production require in situ field observations using recent advances in aerosol and its precursor gaseous measurement techniques.

particle number size distributions↗

Market-Based Indian Grid Integration Study Options: Preprint

The Indian state of Gujarat is forecasting solar and wind generation expansion from 16% to 32% of installed generation capacity by 2015. Some states in India are already experiencing heavy wind power curtailment. Understanding how to integrate variable generation (VG) into the grid is of great interest to local transmission companies and India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This paperdescribes the nature of a market-based integration study and how this approach, while new to Indian grid operation and planning, is necessary to understand how to operate and expand the grid to best accommodate the expansion of VG. Second, it discusses options in defining a study's scope, such as data granularity, generation modeling, and geographic scope. The paper also explores how Gujarat'smethod of grid operation and current system reliability will affect how an integration study can be performed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The emerging multi-polar world and China's grand game

This talk outlines a scenario describing an emerging multipolar world that is aligned with geographical regions. The stability and security of this multipolar world is examined with respect to demographics, trade (economics), resource constraints, and development. In particular I focus on Asia which has two large countries, China and India, competing for resources and markets and examine the emerging regional relations, opportunities and threats. These relationships must overcome many hurdles - the Subcontinent is in a weak position politically and strategically and faces many threats, and China's growing power could help stabilize it or create new threats. Since the fate of 1.5 billion (2.4 billion by 2050) people depends on how the Subcontinent evolves, this talk is meant to initiates a discussion of what China and India can do to help the region develop and stabilize.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗