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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Updated Commercial Aviation Non-Airport Crash Density Values Using Data Obtained from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board for 2000 through 2019

This report documents the calculation of the commercial aviation (CA) non-airport crash density for Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) area associated with the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using the methodology outlined in the Department of Energy (DOE) Standard 3014-2006, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities. For analytical purposes, the CA aircraft fleet is comprised of aircraft engaged in operations under Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121 (i.e., Air Carrier) and Part 135 (i.e., Air Taxi).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1987

The ballistic Mars hopper - An alternative Mars mobility concept

The ballistic Mars hopper is proposed as an alternative mobility concept for unmanned exploration of the Martian surface. In the concept, oxygen and carbon monoxide produced from the Martian atmosphere are used as propellants in a rocket propulsion system for an unmanned vehicle on suborbital trajectories between landing sites separated by distances of up to 1000 km. This mobility concept is seen as uniquely capable of allowing both intensive and extensive exploration of the planet using only a single landed vehicle of mass approximately 2000 kg. The technical challenges associated with in-situ propellant production on the surface of Mars are reviewed. A rocket propulsion subsystem capable of using oxygen and carbon monoxide as propellants is described. Finally, results of mission analysis and a hopper landing hazard simulation are reported. It is concluded that an attractive Mars hopper can be developed based on relatively near-term technology.

Sercel, Joel C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of Airspace Safety

The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has reached an extremely high level of safety in recent years. However, it will only become more difficult to maintain the current level of safety with the forecasted increase in operations, and so the FAA has been making revolutionary changes to the NAS to both expand capacity and ensure safety. Our work complements these efforts by developing a novel model-based framework for real-time monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. Our framework is divided into two parts: (offline) safety analysis and modeling part, and a real-time (online) monitoring and prediction of safety. The goal of the safety analysis task is to identify hazards to flight (distilled from several national databases) and to codify these hazards within our framework such that we can monitor and predict them. From these we define safety metrics that can be monitored and predicted using dynamic models of airspace operations, aircraft, and weather, along with a rigorous, mathematical treatment of uncertainty. We demonstrate our overall approach and highlight the advantages of this approach over the current state-of-the-art through simulated scenarios.

safety metrics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Competing Risks

Highlights: • Clinicians and researchers need to be cognizant of competing risks (ie, the occurrence of an event that precludes future development of the outcome of interest). • Censoring is appropriate when a patient being censored at a particular time (eg, owing to loss to follow-up) is deemed to have approximately the same future risk of developing the outcome of interest as patients still being followed, and when the reason for censoring is not related to events of interest. • Censoring is not appropriate in many scenarios; for example, a dead patient can never develop a future cancer recurrence or late effect. • Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis is commonly used for a time-to-event analysis when the primary outcome (eg, overall survival) has no meaningful competing risk and censoring is appropriate. Cox proportional hazards modeling can be used for multivariable analysis to examine the association between covariates and the primary outcome. • In the presence of competing events, incorrect use of the KM analysis will likely lead to an overestimation of the risk of the outcome of interest and biased estimates from both univariable and multivariable analyses. Therefore, KM usually should not be used to determine local recurrence risk because humanity is always at risk for dying, which is a competing risk. • A competing risk analysis is therefore most appropriate when there are competing events to the primary outcome of interest. The most commonly used multivariable model in these situations is the Fine-Gray model. • Many fundamental questions in radiation oncology—local and regional recurrence, treatment-related toxicity—are best addressed using competing risk methodologies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS1998

Advanced Air Bag Technology Assessment

As a result of the concern for the growing number of air-bag-induced injuries and fatalities, the administrators of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) agreed to a cooperative effort that "leverages NHTSA's expertise in motor vehicle safety restraint systems and biomechanics with NASAs position as one of the leaders in advanced technology development... to enable the state of air bag safety technology to advance at a faster pace..." They signed a NASA/NHTSA memorandum of understanding for NASA to "evaluate air bag to assess advanced air bag performance, establish the technological potential for improved technology (smart) air bag systems, and identify key expertise and technology within the agency (i.e., NASA) that can potentially contribute significantly to the improved effectiveness of air bags." NASA is committed to contributing to NHTSAs effort to: (1) understand and define critical parameters affecting air bag performance; (2) systematically assess air bag technology state of the art and its future potential; and (3) identify new concepts for air bag systems. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) was selected by NASA to respond to the memorandum of understanding by conducting an advanced air bag technology assessment. JPL analyzed the nature of the need for occupant restraint, how air bags operate alone and with safety belts to provide restraint, and the potential hazards introduced by the technology. This analysis yielded a set of critical parameters for restraint systems. The researchers examined data on the performance of current air bag technology, and searched for and assessed how new technologies could reduce the hazards introduced by air bags while providing the restraint protection that is their primary purpose. The critical parameters which were derived are: (1) the crash severity; (2) the use of seat belts; (3) the physical characteristics of the occupants; (4) the proximity of the occupants to the airbag module; (5) the deployment time, which includes the time to sense the need for deployment, the inflator response parameters, the air bag response, and the reliability of the air bag. The requirements for an advanced air bag technology is discussed. These requirements includes that the system use information related to: (1) the crash severity; (2) the status of belt usage; (3) the occupant category; and (4) the proximity to the air bag to adjust air bag deployment. The parameters for the response of the air bag are: (1) deployment time; (2) inflator parameters; and (3) air bag response and reliability. The state of occupant protection advanced technology is reviewed. This review includes: the current safety restraint systems, and advanced technology characteristics. These characteristics are summarized in a table, which has information regarding the technology item, the potential, and an date of expected utilization. The use of technology and expertise at NASA centers is discussed. NASA expertise relating to sensors, computing, simulation, propellants, propulsion, inflatable systems, systems analysis and engineering is considered most useful. Specific NASA technology developments, which were included in the study are: (1) a capacitive detector; (2) stereoscopic vision system; (3) improved crash sensors; (4) the use of the acoustic signature of the crash to determine crash severity; and (5) the use of radar antenna for pre-crash sensing. Information relating to injury risk assessment is included, as is a summary of the areas of the technology which requires further development.

Phen, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Updated Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

One of the technical challenges within the Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies (AEST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program was to "improve and expand remote sensing and mitigation of hazardous atmospheric environments and phenomena"1. In 2012, the author performed an analysis comparing various characteristics of accidents associated with different types of atmospheric hazard environments2. This document reports an update to that analysis which was done in preparation for presenting these findings at the 2015 annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Specifically, an additional three years of data were available, and a time-trend analysis was added.

Evans, Joni K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Safety analysis for complex systems

Operational risk assessment considers hardware, environment, and human factors. Technique starts with division of postulated mission into segments which are further subdivided into separate operational steps. Consequences of steps, nonoccurrence, premature operation, out-of-sequence operation, and inadvertent execution are examined at subevent, event, and phase levels. Hazards are identified and treated individually. Analysis is well suited to application in energy and transportation fields.

Onesty, J. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Analysis of A Dual Quaternion Guidance Algorithm Applicable During Lunar Approach With A Hazard Avoidance Maneuver

There is currently a need for advanced guidance and targeting algorithms that can provide real-time trajectories in the presence of state and vehicle constraints during powered descent. The Safe & Precise Landing Integrated Capabilities Evolution (SPLICE) program aims to mature Hazard Detection (HD) technology along with advanced navigation and guidance algorithms. This paper will report the overall performance of the SPLICE Dual Quaternion Guidance (DQG) algorithm which is a 6-Degree-of-Freedom (6-DOF) convex optimization-based guidance algorithm that can enforce multiple vehicle and state constraints required for Hazard Detection Lidar (HDL) scans during the approach phase. DQG was tested in a closed-loop lunar descent simulation with realistic HDL sensing constraints in a Monte Carlo assessment of 1000 dispersed runs.

Guidance↗
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of prognostic factors, oncologic outcomes, and management for primary and recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva

Objective: To evaluate prognostic factors, outcomes, and management patterns of patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. Methods: One hundred sixty-four women were retrospectively identified with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva treated at our institution between 1/1996–12/2018. Descriptive statistics were performed on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. The χ 2 tests and t-tests were used to compare categorical variables and continuous variables, respectively. Recurrence free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median follow-up was 52.5 months. Five-year RFS was 67.9%, 60.0%, 42.1%, and 20.0% for stage I–IV, respectively. Five-year DSS was 86.2%, 81.6%, 65.0%, and 42.9% for stage I–IV, respectively. On multivariate analysis, positive margins predicted overall RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18–10.73; p=0.025), while presence of lichen sclerosus on pathology (HR=2.78; 95% CI=1.30–5.91; p=0.008) predicted local RFS. OS was predicted by nodal involvement (HR=2.51; 95% CI=1.02–6.13; p=0.043) and positive margins (HR=5.19; 95% CI=2.03–13.26; p=0.001). Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved RFS (p=0.016) and DSS (p=0.012) in node-positive patients. Median survival after treatment of local, groin, and pelvic/distant recurrence was 52, 8, and 5 months, respectively. Conclusion: For primary treatment, more conservative surgical approaches can be considered with escalation of treatment in patients with concurrent precursor lesions, positive margins, and/or nodal involvement. Further studies are warranted to improve risk stratification in order to optimize treatment paradigms for vulvar cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncovering Hazards Using a Multi-Objective Optimization to Explore the Faulty State-Space

Considering resilience when designing complex engineered systems is crucial to ensure the system is safe under unexpected hazardous scenarios. Traditional risk-based approaches, such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) are useful for designing the system to mitigate hazardous scenarios that can be identified by the designer, but often require experience or prior knowledge of system failures to generate. More recently, researchers have developed simulation tools that enable the designer to model large sets of hazardous scenarios (driven by both internal faults and external factors) through simulation. While these tools enable a wider scope of fault modes to be evaluated (e.g., by injecting combined set of fault modes or injecting modes at different times), the resulting assessments (like FMEA) still require knowledge of the specific modes to be evaluated. However, failure to analyze a wide variety of fault scenarios can lead to an incomplete picture of the system resilience, especially to "surprise events'' which may be difficult for the designer to identify and predict beforehand. To overcome this challenge, previous work developed a fault sampling approach for resilience simulations which would procedurally-generate a wide variety of potential faults by systematically perturbing the health states of the system. While the resulting fault modes generated covered a much larger space hazards than would be otherwise considered (and identified many unique failure trajectories which would not have otherwise been identified), it also significantly increased the computational cost of the analysis and resulted in the simulation and analysis of a large set of essentially duplicate scenarios. Additionally, as the number of dimensions in the faulty state-space increases, the full elaboration of possible modes becomes computationally infeasible, justifying the use of a more targeted search. To resolve this limitation, this work proposes the use of a multiobjective optimization algorithm to search the health state space for potential fault modes that are both (1) hazardous and (2) unique. To solve this type of problem, this work proposes the use of a cooperative co-evolutionary algorithm. To demonstrate this approach, it will be applied to a model of an autonomous rover which uses line markings to navigate, focusing on potential hazards in the drive system which could cause the rover to crash. To determine the merit of the approach, it will further be compared with the previously-presented range elaboration approach and a random mode generation approach on the basis of computational efficiency and found modes.

Resilience↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with Industrial Facilities

This report provides a roadmap and toolkit for site-specific risk assessments across a broad range of industrial customers co-located with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Pathway that presented hazards assessment and generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors co-located with hydrogen production facilities. The report expands the hazards assessments to include other industrial facilities: an oil refinery, a methanol plant, a synthetic fuel (synfuel) plant, the production of synthetic gas (syngas) as part of the methanol and synfuel plants, and wood pulp and paper mills. All these facilities are specified through industrial process and requirements research performed by national laboratories, universities, and interaction with industry. Many of the processes used in this report are pre-conceptual designs to use for decarbonization of the current technology facilities. A process of failure modes and effects analysis (what can go wrong) and accidentology (what has historically gone wrong) was used to determine the hazards presented to the NPP by the addition of the HES and the industrial customer. Chemical properties of feedstocks and products are summarized as part of the hazards assessment. Example analysis procedures are provided for each of the hazard types identified. These deterministic analyses can be used to assess adherence to licensing criteria. They can also be used to meet other safety goals like protection of the public, workers, or industrial facility equipment. The probabilistic analysis consisted of three sizes of HESs modeled in a PRA to assess the impact on the initiating events (IE) and results of the PRA. The PRA results conclude that the resulting increases in IE frequencies are below the limits required for small changes to existing NPPs under 10 CFR 50.59.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1975

Stream network analysis and geomorphic flood plain mapping from orbital and suborbital remote sensing imagery application to flood hazard studies in central Texas

The author has identified the following significant results. Development of a quantitative hydrogeomorphic approach to flood hazard evaluation was hindered by (1) problems of resolution and definition of the morphometric parameters which have hydrologic significance, and (2) mechanical difficulties in creating the necessary volume of data for meaningful analysis. Measures of network resolution such as drainage density and basin Shreve magnitude indicated that large scale topographic maps offered greater resolution than small scale suborbital imagery and orbital imagery. The disparity in network resolution capabilities between orbital and suborbital imagery formats depends on factors such as rock type, vegetation, and land use. The problem of morphometric data analysis was approached by developing a computer-assisted method for network analysis. The system allows rapid identification of network properties which can then be related to measures of flood response.

Baker, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convectively Induced Turbulence Encountered During NASA's Fall-2000 Flight Experiments

Aircraft encounters with atmospheric turbulence are a leading cause of in-flight injuries aboard commercial airliners and cost the airlines millions of dollars each year. Most of these injuries are due to encounters with turbulence in and around convection. In a recent study of 44 turbulence accident reports between 1990 and 1996, 82% of the cases were found to be near or within convective activity (Kaplan et al. 1999). According to NTSB accident reports, pilots' descriptions of these turbulence encounters include 'abrupt', 'in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC)', 'saw nothing on the weather radar', and 'the encounter occurred while deviating around' convective activity. Though the FAA has provided guidelines for aircraft operating in convective environments, turbulence detection capability could decrease the number of injuries by alerting pilots of a potential encounter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, through its Aviation Safety Program, is addressing turbulence hazards through research, flight experiments, and data analysis. Primary focus of this program element is the characterization of turbulence and its environment, as well as the development and testing of hazard estimation algorithms for both radar and in situ detection. The ultimate goal is to operationally test sensors that will provide ample warning prior to hazardous turbulence encounters. In order to collect data for support of these activities, NASA-Langley's B-757 research aircraft was directed into regions favorable for convectively induced turbulence (CIT). On these flights, the airborne predictive wind shear (PWS) radar, augmented with algorithms designed for turbulence detection, was operated in real time to test this capability. In this paper, we present the results of two research flights when turbulence was encountered. Described is an overview of the flights, the general radar performance, and details of four encounters with severe turbulence.

Hamilton, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of Advanced Nuclear Reactors Coupled with Industrial Facilities

This report provides a roadmap and tool kit for site specific risk assessments across a broad range of industrial customers co-located with advanced nuclear power plants (ANPP) that are not currently built and operating in the U.S. This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Energy Systems Pathway that has produced industrial requirements studies and techno-economic assessments on the topics of feasibility of ANPP supported industrial processes. This report also leverages the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program that has presented hazards assessment and generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors (LWRs) co-located with hydrogen production facilities. Many of the hazard assessments and risk assessments performed for the LWRS report are agnostic to whether the nuclear reactor is an ANPP or were adapted to the ANPP focus. The report performs hazards assessments to include industrial facilities: an oil refinery, a methanol plant, a synthetic fuel (synfuel) plant, the production of synthetic gas (syngas) as part of the methanol and synfuel plants, wood pulp and paper mills, and hydrogen production. Hydrogen production facilities are assessed in depth through prior reports in the LWRS program and the results are leveraged in this report. All these facilities are specified through industrial process and requirements research performed by national laboratories, universities, and interaction with industry. Many of the processes used in this report are pre-conceptual designs to use for decarbonization of the current technology facilities. A process of failure modes and effects analysis (what can go wrong) and accidentology (what has historically gone wrong) was used to determine the hazards presented to the nuclear power plant by the addition of the HES and the industrial customer. Chemical properties of feedstocks and products are summarized as part of the hazards assessment. Example analysis procedures are provided for each of the hazard types identified. These deterministic analyses can be used to assess adherence to licensing criteria. They can also be used to meet other safety goals like protection of the public, workers, or industrial facility equipment. A modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) PRA only existing on paper was modeled and verified in modern PRA software. This will provide a tool for representative ANPP probabilistic analyses for future research.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

The Accident Model Document is one of three documents of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) - Reactor System as applied to a Space Base Program. Potential terrestrial nuclear hazards involving the zirconium hydride reactor-Brayton power module are identified for all phases of the Space Base program. The accidents/events that give rise to the hazards are defined and abort sequence trees are developed to determine the sequence of events leading to the hazard and the associated probabilities of occurence. Source terms are calculated to determine the magnitude of the hazards. The above data is used in the mission accident analysis to determine the most probable and significant accidents/events in each mission phase. The only significant hazards during the prelaunch and launch ascent phases of the mission are those which arise form criticality accidents. Fission product inventories during this time period were found to be very low due to very limited low power acceptance testing.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗