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At least 469 records · Page 26

Comparing Sensor Fusion and Multimodal Chemometric Models for Monitoring U(VI) in Complex Environments Representative of Irradiated Nuclear Fuel

Optical sensors and chemometric models were leveraged for the quantification of uranium(VI) (0–100 μg mL –1 ), europium (0–150 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–250 μg mL –1 ), praseodymium (0–350 μg mL –1 ), neodymium (0–1000 μg mL –1 ), and HNO 3 (2–4 M) with varying corrosion product (iron, nickel, and chromium) levels using laser fluorescence, Raman scattering, and ultraviolet–visible–near-infrared absorption spectra. In this paper, an efficient approach to developing and evaluating tens of thousands of partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models, built from fused optical spectra or multimodal acquisitions, is discussed. Each PLSR model was optimized with unique preprocessing combinations, and features were selected using genetic algorithm filters. The 7-factor D-optimal design training set contained just 55 samples to minimize the number of samples. The performance of PLSR models was evaluated by using an automated latent variable selection script. PLS1 regression models tailored to each species outperformed a global PLS2 model. PLS1 models built using fused spectra data and a multimodal (i.e., analyzed separately) approach yielded similar information, resulting in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 0.9–5.7% for the seven factors. Further, the optical techniques and data processing strategies established in this study allow for the direct analysis of numerous species without measuring luminescence lifetimes or relying on a standard addition approach, making it optimal for near-real-time, in situ measurements. Nuclear reactor modeling helped bound training set conditions and identified elemental ratios of lanthanide fission products to characterize the burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. Leveraging fluorescence, spectrophotometry, experimental design, and chemometrics can enable the remote quantification and characterization of complex systems with numerous species, monitor system performance, help identify the source of materials, and enable rapid high-throughput experiments in a variety of industrial processes and fundamental studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Charged lepton flavor violation at the EIC

We present a comprehensive analysis of the potential sensitivity of the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) to charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) in the channel ep → τX, within the model-independent framework of the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT). We compute the relevant cross sections to leading order in QCD and electroweak corrections and perform simulations of signal and SM background events in various τ decay channels, suggesting simple cuts to enhance the associated estimated efficiencies. To assess the discovery potential of the EIC in τ-e transitions, we study the sensitivity of other probes of this physics across a broad range of energy scales, from pp → eτX at the Large Hadron Collider to decays of B mesons and τ leptons, such as τ → eγ, τ → eℓ+ℓ–, and crucially the hadronic modes τ → eY with Yϵ {π, K, ππ, Kπ, …}. We find that electroweak dipole and four-fermion semi-leptonic operators involving light quarks are already strongly constrained by τ decays, while operators involving the c and b quarks present more promising discovery potential for the EIC. An analysis of three models of leptoquarks confirms the expectations based on the SMEFT results. We also identify future directions needed to maximize the reach of the EIC in CLFV searches: these include an optimization of the τ tagger in hadronic channels, an exploration of background suppression through tagging b and c jets in the final state, and a global fit by turning on all SMEFT couplings, which will likely reveal new discovery windows for the EIC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Robust cooperative control strategy for a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles against sensor errors and control errors simultaneously in a real-world driving environment

In a real-world driving environment, a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is subject to many internal and external disturbances, resulting in uncertain vehicle dynamics. In general, the disturbances can be categorized into two types: disturbances due to vehicle sensor errors (e.g., GPS error) and disturbances due to vehicle control errors (e.g., actuator delay). In the literature, many control strategies have been proposed to improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by these disturbances. However, most of these strategies only consider one type of disturbance and cannot tackle both types of disturbances simultaneously. Furthermore, they are designed to maximize the benefits of each vehicle in the platoon independently, which can deteriorate the performance of the platoon. Here, to address these problems, this study proposes a robust cooperative control (RCC) strategy to maneuver the vehicles in the platoon cooperatively to counteract the impacts of both types of disturbances. The RCC strategy is developed based on a minimax problem, where the maximization subproblem seeks to find the worst inputs for the uncertainty terms in the vehicle dynamics equation to minimize the platoon performance, while the minimization subproblem seeks to find the optimal control decisions for all subsequent vehicles to maximize the platoon performance in the worst case. To solve the minimax problem, this study proposes a globally convergent solution algorithm. It can solve the minimax problem very efficiently to enable real time deployment of the RCC strategy. Numerical application indicates that compared to the existing methods, the RCC strategy can dramatically improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against the uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by both vehicle state detection errors and vehicle control errors. Therefore, it can maneuver the CAV platoon safely and efficiently in a real-world driving environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A circuit-generated quantum subspace algorithm for the variational quantum eigensolver

Recent research has shown that wavefunction evolution in real and imaginary time can generate quantum subspaces with significant utility for obtaining accurate ground state energies. Inspired by these methods, we propose combining quantum subspace techniques with the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE). In our approach, the parameterized quantum circuit is divided into a series of smaller subcircuits. The sequential application of these subcircuits to an initial state generates a set of wavefunctions that we use as a quantum subspace to obtain high-accuracy groundstate energies. We call this technique the circuit subspace variational quantum eigensolver (CSVQE) algorithm. By benchmarking CSVQE on a range of quantum chemistry problems, we show that it can achieve significant error reduction in the best case compared to conventional VQE, particularly for poorly optimized circuits, greatly improving convergence rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate that when applied to circuits trapped at local minima, CSVQE can produce energies close to the global minimum of the energy landscape, making it a potentially powerful tool for diagnosing local minima.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Local chromatic correction optics for Future Circular Collider e + e −

Local chromatic correction optics are proposed for the Future Circular e + − e − Collider. These new optics assume an identical layout of the magnets at all operation energies and include a new design for the arcs, for the straight sections, and for the final focus. The arcs design is a step forward from the classic FODO lattice that achieves near cancellation up to the fourth order of chromatic and geometric aberrations. Straight sections and the final focus benefit from the application of transparency conditions and are thus minimally impacting the global beam dynamics. The final focus design includes both vertical and horizontal chromaticity correction sections, crab sextupoles, and additional specific sextupoles and decapoles for the optimization of the dynamics off-energy. Decapoles are very effective in mitigating the reduction of dynamic aperture due to synchrotron radiation. Nonlinear magnet settings are further optimized with multiobjective algorithms. The overall properties of the new optics proposed are analyzed in the presence of errors and compared to other optics designs.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

First-principles based plasma profile predictions for optimized stellarators

In the present Letter, first-of-its-kind computer simulations predicting plasma profiles for modern optimized stellarators—while self-consistently retaining neoclassical transport, turbulent transport with 3D effects, and external physical sources—are presented. These simulations exploit a newly developed coupling framework involving the global gyrokinetic turbulence code GENE-3D, the neoclassical transport code KNOSOS, and the 1D transport solver TANGO. This framework is used to analyze the recently observed degradation of energy confinement in electron-heated plasmas in the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator, where the central ion temperature was 'clamped' to $T_\textrm i \approx 1.5$ keV regardless of the external heating power. By performing first-principles based simulations, we provide key evidence to understand this effect, namely the inefficient thermal coupling between electrons and ions in a turbulence-dominated regime, which is exacerbated by the large $T_\textrm e/T_\textrm i$ ratios, and show that a more efficient ion heat source, such as direct ion heating, will increase the on-axis ion temperature. This work paves the way towards the use of high-fidelity models for the development of the next generation of stellarators, in which neoclassical and turbulent transport are optimized simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calibrating the Classical Hardness of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm

The trading of fidelity for scale enables approximate classical simulators such as matrix product states (MPSs) to run quantum circuits beyond exact methods. A control parameter, the so-called bond dimension $\mathcal{χ}$ for MPSs, governs the allocated computational resources and the output fidelity. Here, we characterize the fidelity for the quantum approximate optimization algorithm by the expectation value of the cost function that it seeks to minimize and find that it follows a scaling law $\mathscr{F}$(ln $\mathcal{χ}$/N), where N is the number of qubits. With ln $\mathcal{χ}$ amounting to the entanglement that a MPS can encode, we show that the relevant variable for investigating the fidelity is the entanglement per qubit. Importantly, our results calibrate the classical computational power required to achieve the desired fidelity and benchmark the performance of quantum hardware in a realistic setup. For instance, we quantify the hardness of performing better classically than a noisy superconducting quantum processor by readily matching its output to the scaling function. Moreover, we relate the global fidelity to that of individual operations and establish its relationship with $\mathcal{χ}$ and N. We sharpen the requirements for noisy quantum computers to outperform classical techniques at running a quantum optimization algorithm in speed, size, and fidelity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Distributed-Memory Sparse Deep Neural Network Inference Using Global Arrays

Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) models exhibit tremendous promise in developing efficient and productive distributed-memory parallel applications. They have been used extensively in scientific computations due to conveniently offering a ``shared-memory''-like model and convenient interfaces that separate communication with synchronization. Traditionally, PGAS communication models have been applied to dense/contiguously distributed data, but most modern applications depict varied levels of sparsity. Existing PGAS models require certain adaptations to support distributed sparse computations, since associated computations often require matrix arithmetic, in addition to data movement. The Global Arrays toolkit from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of the earliest PGAS models to combine one-sided data communication and distributed matrix operations and is still used in the popular NWChem quantum chemistry suite. Recently, we have expanded the Global Arrays toolkit to support common sparse operations, like sparse matrix-dense matrix multiplies (SpMM), sparse matrix-sparse matrix multiplication (SpGEMM) and Sampled Dense-Dense Matrix Multiplication (SDDMM). As it turns out, these operations are the bedrock of sparse Deep Learning (DL); sparse deep neural networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have gained increasing attention recently in achieving speedups on training and inference with reduced memory footprints. Unlike scientific applications in High Performance Computing (HPC), modern (distributed-memory capable) DL toolkits often rely on non-standardized and closed-source vendor software optimizations, creating challenges in software-hardware co-design at scale. Our goal is to support a variety of distributed-memory sparse matrix operations and helper functions in the newly created Sparse Global Arrays (SGA), such that it is possible to build portable and productive Machine Learning scenarios for algorithm/software and hardware codesign purposes. Contemporary data-parallel schemes for training/inference are undergoing a major overhaul since model replication limits scalability and causes resource inefficiencies. As such, we have adopted tensor parallelism in decomposing the model and inputs, to mitigate memory issues. Current implementation is built on top of MPI and uses CPUs to maximize the portability across the platforms.

Distributed computing, machine learning↗

GA-Based Voltage Optimization of Distribution Feeder with High-Penetration of DERs Using Megawatt-Scale Units

In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA)-based voltage optimization of a modified IEEE-34 node distribution feeder with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is proposed using two megawatt-scale reactive power sources. Traditional voltage support units present in distribution grids are not suitable for DER-rich feeders, while voltage support using small-scale DERs present in the feeder requires considerable communication effort to reach a global solution. In this work, two megawatt-scale units are placed to improve the voltage profile across the IEEE 34-node feeder, which has been modified to include several PV units and an energy storage unit. The megawatt-scale units are optimized using GA for fast and accurate operation. The performance of the proposed scheme is verified using simulation results with a multi-platform setup where the modified IEEE-34 node feeder is modeled in OpenDSS while the GA optimization scheme is programmed in MATLAB.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

Multi-year assessment of the impact of ship-borne radiosonde observations on polar WRF forecasts in the Arctic

Abstract To compensate for the lack of conventional observations over the Arctic Ocean, ship-borne radiosonde observations have been regularly carried out during summer Arctic expeditions and the observed data have been broadcast via the global telecommunication system since 2017. With these data obtained over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean, observing system experiments were carried out using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system to investigate their effects on analyses and forecasts over the Arctic. The results of verification against reanalysis data reveal: (1) DA effects on analyses and forecasts; (2) the reason for the year-to-year variability of DA effects; and (3) the possible role of upper-level potential vorticity in delayed DA effects. The overall assimilation effects of the extra data on the analyses and forecasts over the Arctic are positive. Initially, the DA effects are the most apparent in the temperature variables in the middle/lower troposphere, which spread to the wind variables in the upper troposphere. The effects decrease with time but reappear after approximately 120 h, even in the 240-h forecasts. The effects on forecasts vary depending on the proximity of the radiosonde observation locations to the high synoptic variability. The upper-level potential vorticity is known to play an important role in the development of Arctic cyclones, and it is suggested as a possible explanation for the delayed DA effects after about 120 h.

Geology↗

Analysis of Ionic Mercury Species in SRR Samples Measured by SRNL and Eurofins FGS

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) requested the development of mercury speciation capabilities at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to support the Liquid Waste Operations at SRS. As part of that method development, SRR requested that SRNL Analytical Development (AD) compare their results with those obtained from their outside contract laboratory, Eurofins Frontier Global Sciences (FGS). This document reports on this method development work performed at SRNL as well as the comparative analyses conducted between the two laboratories. Development, optimization, and validation were undertaken at SRNL to produce a method for the species-specific analysis of ionic mercury. This method was developed as a secondary step to an existing method, L16.1-ADS-1579 Purgeable Mercury Cold Vapor Atomic Fluorescence Spectrophotometry. As such, much of the development and validation were performed in service of development of L16.1-ADS-1579. Six samples, representing two consecutive quarterly Tank 50 batches, were tested for ionic mercury by SRNL-AD and Eurofins FGS. The mean values reported by each lab for ionic mercury differed by less than one standard deviation, therefore the values reported by both labs were considered to be in agreement. SRNL-AD reported values for the six samples that differed by -5.56 mean percent, relative to Eurofins FGS. Together with comparable quality control data reported by each laboratory, these data represent a high level of agreement among both laboratories. With a viable method for ionic mercury that matches the data quality provided by outside commercial laboratories, SRNL-AD has demonstrated competency in measuring methylmercury, ethylmercury, total mercury, soluble & particulate mercury, purgeable mercury, and ionic mercury species in a variety of radioactive tank samples.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Sequential Quadratic Programming Algorithm for Nonsmooth Problems with Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) Objective

An optimization algorithm for nonsmooth nonconvex constrained optimization problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objective functions is proposed and analyzed. Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) is a weakly concave property that exists in difference of convex (DC) functions and arises naturally in many applications, particularly certain classes of solutions to parametric optimization problems e.g., recourse of stochastic programming and projection onto closed sets. The algorithm can be viewed as an extension of sequential quadratic programming (SQP) to nonsmooth problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objectives or a simplified bundle method. It is globally convergent with bounded algorithm parameters that are updated with a trust-region criterion. The algorithm handles general smooth constraints through linearization and uses a line search to ensure progress. The potential inconsistencies from the linearization of the constraints are addressed through a penalty method. In conclusion, the capabilities of the algorithm are demonstrated by solving both simple upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) problems and a real-world optimal power flow problem used in current power grid industry practices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Incremental Gradient Method for Optimization Problems With Variational Inequality Constraints

We consider minimizing a sum of agent-specific nondifferentiable merely convex functions over the solution set of a variational inequality (VI) problem in that each agent is associated with a local monotone mapping. This problem finds an application in computation of the best equilibrium in nonlinear complementarity problems arising in transportation networks. We develop an iteratively regularized incremental gradient method where at each iteration, agents communicate over a directed cycle graph to update their solution iterates using their local information about the objective and the mapping. The proposed method is single-timescale in the sense that it does not involve any excessive hard-to-project computation per iteration. We derive nonasymptotic agent-wise convergence rates for the suboptimality of the global objective function and infeasibility of the VI constraints measured by a suitably defined dual gap function. Finally, the proposed method appears to be the first fully iterative scheme equipped with iteration complexity that can address distributed optimization problems with VI constraints over cycle graphs.

convergence↗

Active Learning Accelerated Discovery of Stable Iridium Oxide Polymorphs for the Oxygen Evolution Reaction

The discovery of high-performing and stable materials for sustainable energy applications is a pressing goal in catalysis and materials science. Understanding the relationship between a material’s structure and functionality is an important step in the process, such that viable polymorphs for a given chemical composition need to be identified. Machine-learning-based surrogate models have the potential to accelerate the search for polymorphs that target specific applications. Herein, we report a readily generalizable active-learning (AL) accelerated algorithm for identification of electrochemically stable iridium oxide polymorphs of IrO 2 and IrO 3 . The search is coupled to a subsequent analysis of the electrochemical stability of the discovered structures for the acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER). Structural candidates are generated by identifying all 956 structurally unique AB2 and AB3 prototypes in existing materials databases (more than 38000). Next, using an active learning approach, we find 196 IrO 2 polymorphs within the thermodynamic amorphous synthesizability limit and reaffirm the global stability of the rutile structure. We find 75 synthesizable IrO 3 polymorphs and report a previously unknown FeF 3 -type structure as the most stable, termed α-IrO 3 . To test the algorithms performance, we compare to a random search of the candidate space and report at least a 2-fold increase in the rate of discovery. Additionally, the AL approach can acquire the most stable polymorphs of IrO 2 and IrO 3 with fewer than 30 density functional theory optimizations. Analysis of the structural properties of the discovered polymorphs reveals that octahedral local coordination environments are preferred for nearly all low-energy structures. Subsequent Pourbaix Ir–H 2 O analysis shows that α-IrO3 is the globally stable solid phase under acidic OER conditions and supersedes the stability of rutile IrO 2 . Calculation of theoretical OER surface activities reveal ideal weaker binding of the OER intermediates on α-IrO 3 than on any other considered iridium oxide. We emphasize that the proposed AL algorithm can be easily generalized to search for any binary metal oxide structure with a defined stoichiometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗