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Consideration of Dynamical Balances

The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

NNMI↗

Consideration of Dynamical Balances

The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

Errico, Ronald M.↗

In-Flight Evaluation of the Traffic Aware Planner on the NASA HU-25A Guardian Aircraft

NASA’s Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software is a research-prototype decision support tool that provides pilots with time- and fuel-saving route recommendations that optimize their current trajectory. The software runs on a first-of-a-kind system architecture onboard three aircraft in revenue service conducting operational evaluations with a major domestic airline. Therefore, significant NASA-internal testing is required prior to releasing the software to the partner airline. This paper describes a flight test plan that exercises the functionality of the TAP software in a representative operational environment, describes the system architecture developed and implemented for the NASA Langley HU-25A Guardian aircraft to support the test objectives, presents outcomes of the flight test campaign, and discusses use cases that demonstrate the value of flight testing for this activity.Research into flight path optimization of transport aircraft conducted by the National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration (NASA) has produced an operational concept known as Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests(TASAR) [1, 2]. This near-term concept [3] provides the aircrew with a flight deck decision support tool known asthe Traffic Aware Planner (TAP). The TAP software leverages a growing number of information sources on the flightdeck to make time- and fuel-saving route optimization recommendations to the aircrew while en route. The aircrewcan then use the suggestions provided by the tool to make route change requests with a greater likelihood of acceptanceby air traffic control (ATC). Since TASAR is a concept intended for the current operational environment, it isintentionally designed to have no safety-critical impact or require any changes to current Federal AviationAdministration (FAA) rules and procedures [4, 5].The research prototype TAP system [6–8], explained further in Section III.C, continually incorporates up-to-dateaircraft state data from onboard avionics, as well as the latest position of surrounding traffic, the most recent windforecast, and the most recent convective weather forecast, in order to calculate candidate trajectory modifications thatimprove upon the current active route. These trajectories account for user-selectable objective functions [3] of reducedfuel burn, reduced flight time, or an airline-derived combination of factors known as trip cost. Previous analyses andsimulations have estimated substantial savings for airlines employing this technique within the U.S. National AirspaceSystem (NAS) [9–11]. Operational evaluations with Alaska Airlines seek to validate these projected benefits usingmeasured data while simultaneously providing benefits to the airline [12, 13].The TAP software has undergone a number of human-in-the-loop simulations [14] and flight test activities[15–17] in order to validate the operational concept, evaluate human factors considerations (e.g., workload, usability,distraction, etc.), and to assess the ability of the software to function in a representative operational environment (e.g.,connected to live avionics data, using in-flight internet connectivity, etc.). However, these simulations and flight testcampaigns did not account for the hardware architecture implemented on the three aircraft for Alaska Airlines’operational evaluations of the TAP software. Therefore, a need was identified to thoroughly test the functionality ofthe software in a similar hardware architecture to that of the partner airline’s aircraft. Information regarding testapparatus and environments used to evaluate TAP prior to testing on the HU-25A can be found in reference [18].A campaign of flight trials on a NASA aircraft, the HU-25A Guardian, was conducted to ensure that the researchprototype TAP system functions well in a configuration similar to the Alaska Airlines aircraft prior to deployment.This airborne, networked environment enables an assessment of the operational factors unique to the flight environment. Additionally, this activity evaluated the effectiveness and benefit of new TAP functionality andoperation in a relevant flight environment while allowing the rapid prototyping of new concepts and features.This paper is organized as follows: Section II discusses the details of the flight test plan, flight profiles, and theduties of personnel involved with conducting flight operations. Section III describes the test platform, avionicsequipage, and system architecture. Section IV presents a discussion of results, and Section V contains concludingremarks.

Underwood, Matthew C.↗

Initial results from a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system and comparisons with the AVE-SESAME I data set

The development of a comprehensive mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is described in detail. The modeling system is designed for both research and real-time forecast applications. The 14-level numerical model, which has a 48 km grid mesh, can be run over most of North America and the adjacent oceanic regions. The model employs sixth-order accurate numerics, generalized similarity theory boundary-layer physics, a sophisticated cumulus parameterization scheme, and state of the art analysis and initialization techniques. Examples of model output on the synoptic and subsynoptic scales are presented for the AVE-SESAME I field experiment on 10-11 April 1979. The model output is subjectively compared to the observational analysis and the LFM II output on the synoptic scale. Subsynoptic model output is compared to analyses generated from the AVE-SESAME I data set.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Some Recent Developments in Numerical Modelling at ECMWF

A new atmospheric model was introduced into operational forecasting at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, on 21 April 1983. The principal differences between this model and the Center's first operational model were in the adiabatic formulation, which, in the new model, includes use of a spectral representation in the horizontal, a more general vertical coordinate, and a modified, more-efficient, time-stepping scheme. In addition, new programming techniques and standards were adopted to facilitate both the model's use as a research tool and its adaptation to make full use of the features of the recently-acquired CRAY X-MP computer. A number of revisions were also made in detailed aspects of the formulation of the parameterization schemes. The operational change to this new model was accompanied by a second important change, namely the use of a higher envelope orography in the lower boundary conditions of the model. Problems in the operational performance of the model and development preparatory to the future operational implementation of a high resolution version of the model on the CRAY X-MP are discussed.

Simmons, A. J.↗

Preface: C/NOFS Results and Equatorial Ionospheric Dynamics

The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite was launched into orbit in April 2008 as part of an ongoing effort to understand and identify plasma irregularities that adversely impact the propagation of radio waves in the upper atmosphere. Combined with recent improvements in radar, airglow, and ground-based studies, as well as state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the C/NOFS mission has led to new insights into equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics. In order to document these advances, the C/NOFS Results and Equatorial Dynamics Technical Interchange Meeting was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico from 12 to 14 March 2013. The meeting was a great success with 55 talks and 22 posters, and covered topics including the numerical simulations of plasma irregularities, the effects of atmospheric tides, stratospheric phenomena, and magnetic storms on the upper atmosphere, causes and predictions of scintillation-causing ionospheric irregularities, current and future instrumentation efforts in the equatorial region. The talks were broken into the following three topical sessions: A. Ambient Ionosphere and Thermosphere B. Transient Phenomena in the Low-Latitude Ionosphere C. New Missions, New Sensors, New Science and Engineering Issues. The following special issue was planned as a follow-up to the meeting. We would like to thank Mike Pinnock, the editors and staff of Copernicus, and our reviewers for their work in bringing this special issue to the scientific community. Our thanks also go to Patricia Doherty and the meeting organizing committee for arranging the C/NOFS Technical Interchange Meeting.

CNOFS↗

Analysis of Airport Ground Delay Program Decisions Using Data Mining Techniques

Air traffic service providers have to make decisions regarding changes to air traffic flow in the event of major weather disturbances and traffic congestions to maintain safety of the system. The behavior of the air traffic management system will be more predictable if consistent decisions are made under similar traffic and weather conditions. Consistency of deciding on control action depends on the weather and traffic conditions as well as accuracy in predicting these conditions. Weather parameters (defined in terms of forecast and actual weather and traffic conditions) on different days can be used to categorize days into days with little decision consistency, days with moderate decision consistency and days with high decision consistency. Four years of traffic, weather and ground delay program decisions data at major airports in the United States are used in the analysis. This paper examines performance of different data mining methods in the three regions of decision consistency. Not surprisingly, data mining methods have the best performance in the region of most decision consistency and have the poorest performance in the region of little decision consistency. In applications where data mining methods have differing performance in differing regions, it would be more useful to characterize the region specific performance instead of characterizing performance by a single parameter. Finally, the results show no significant variation in the performance of different data mining methods for this particular problem. The fact that different mining methods show no significant variation also provides further confidence in the results of data mining methods. Work in this abstract discusses initial results. This paper describes the results in terms of both forecast and actual environmental conditions and discusses how prediction errors impact decision consistency.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

Development and Application of Computational/In Vitro Toxicological Methods for Chemical Hazard Risk Reduction of New Materials for Advanced Weapon Systems

The development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) is essential for reducing the chemical hazards of new weapon systems. The current collaboration between HEST (toxicology research and testing), MLPJ (computational chemistry) and PRS (computational chemistry, new propellant synthesis) is focusing R&D efforts on basic research goals that will rapidly transition to useful products for propellant development. Computational methods are being investigated that will assist in forecasting cellular toxicological end-points. Models developed from these chemical structure-toxicity relationships are useful for the prediction of the toxicological endpoints of new related compounds. Research is focusing on the evaluation tools to be used for the discovery of such relationships and the development of models of the mechanisms of action. Combinations of computational chemistry techniques, in vitro toxicity methods, and statistical correlations, will be employed to develop and explore potential predictive relationships; results for series of molecular systems that demonstrate the viability of this approach are reported. A number of hydrazine salts have been synthesized for evaluation. Computational chemistry methods are being used to elucidate the mechanism of action of these salts. Toxicity endpoints such as viability (LDH) and changes in enzyme activity (glutahoione peroxidase and catalase) are being experimentally measured as indicators of cellular damage. Extrapolation from computational/in vitro studies to human toxicity, is the ultimate goal. The product of this program will be a predictive tool to assist in the development of new, less toxic propellants.

Frazier, John M.↗

Temperature Humidity and Sea Level Pressure Increments Induced by 1DVAR Analysis of GPS Refractivity

The Global Positioning System (GPS) transmitted signals are affected by the atmosphere. Using the radio occultation technique, where a receiver is placed on a low-Earth-orbiting platform. it is possible to perform soundings. by measuring the bending angles of the rays. The information can be converted into atmospheric refractivity. We have developed a one dimensional variational (1DVAR) analysis that uses GPS/MET 1995 refractivity and 6-hour FVDAS (Finite Volume Data Assimilation System) forecasts as background information to constrain the retrievals. The analysis increments are defined as 1DVAR minus background temperature, humidity and sea level pressure. Before assimilating the 1DVAR profiles into the FVDAS. the increments need to be understood. First, some bias could be induced in the retrievals when confronted with actual biased data: second. bias in the back-round could create undesired bias in the retrievals. Anv bias in the analyses will ultimately change the climatology of the model the retrievals will be assimilated into. We relate the increments to the reduction of the difference between observed minus computed refractivity profiles. We also point out the difference in the mean increments using backgrounds which have assimilated either NESDIS TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) operational retrievals or Data Assimilation Office (DAO) TOVS interactive retrievals. The climatology of the model in terms of refractivity is significantly different and this impacts the GPS 1DVAR increments. This testifies that changing the basic load of assimilated data has an influence on the impact the GPS data may have in a DAS.

Poli, Paul↗

Analysis of scanner data for crop inventories

Progress and technical issues are reported in the development of corn/soybeans area estimation procedures for use on data from South America, with particular emphasis on Argentina. Aspects related to the supporting research section of the AgRISTARS Project discussed include: (1) multisegment corn/soybean estimation; (2) through the season separability of corn and soybeans within the U.S. corn belt; (3) TTS estimation; (4) insights derived from the baseline corn and soybean procedure; (5) small fields research; and (6) simulating the spectral appearance of wheat as a function of its growth and development. To assist the foreign commodity production forecasting, the performance of the baseline corn/soybean procedure was analyzed and the procedure modified. Fundamental limitations were found in the existing guidelines for discriminating these two crops. The temporal and spectral characteristics of corn and soybeans must be determined because other crops grow with them in Argentina. The state of software technology is assessed and the use of profile techniques for estimation is considered.

Horvath, R.↗

Galileo mission planning for Low Gain Antenna based operations

The Galileo mission operations concept is undergoing substantial redesign, necessitated by the deployment failure of the High Gain Antenna, while the spacecraft is on its way to Jupiter. The new design applies state-of-the-art technology and processes to increase the telemetry rate available through the Low Gain Antenna and to increase the information density of the telemetry. This paper describes the mission planning process being developed as part of this redesign. Principal topics include a brief description of the new mission concept and anticipated science return (these have been covered more extensively in earlier papers), identification of key drivers on the mission planning process, a description of the process and its implementation schedule, a discussion of the application of automated mission planning tool to the process, and a status report on mission planning work to date. Galileo enhancements include extensive reprogramming of on-board computers and substantial hard ware and software upgrades for the Deep Space Network (DSN). The principal mode of operation will be onboard recording of science data followed by extended playback periods. A variety of techniques will be used to compress and edit the data both before recording and during playback. A highly-compressed real-time science data stream will also be important. The telemetry rate will be increased using advanced coding techniques and advanced receivers. Galileo mission planning for orbital operations now involves partitioning of several scarce resources. Particularly difficult are division of the telemetry among the many users (eleven instruments, radio science, engineering monitoring, and navigation) and allocation of space on the tape recorder at each of the ten satellite encounters. The planning process is complicated by uncertainty in forecast performance of the DSN modifications and the non-deterministic nature of the new data compression schemes. Key mission planning steps include quantifying resource or capabilities to be allocated, prioritizing science observations and estimating resource needs for each, working inter-and intra-orbit trades of these resources among the Project elements, and planning real-time science activity. The first major mission planning activity, a high level, orbit-by-orbit allocation of resources among science objectives, has already been completed; and results are illustrated in the paper. To make efficient use of limited resources, Galileo mission planning will rely on automated mission planning tools capable of dealing with interactions among time-varying downlink capability, real-time science and engineering data transmission, and playback of recorded data. A new generic mission planning tool is being adapted for this purpose.

Gershman, R.↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data Within a Rapid Update Cycle Format: Impact on MM5 Warm Season QPF

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 0-to 12-hour time scale when implemented within a local rapid update cycle (LRUC) format. The PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 is used and configured with a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over the southeastern US. The LRUC format consists of a sequence of 12-hour forecasts initialized every hour between 12 and 18 UTC seven days a week. GOES skin temperature tendencies and solar insolation are assimilated in a 1-hour period prior to the start of each twelve-hour forecast. A unique aspect of the LRUC is the satellite assimilation and the continuous recycling of the adjusted moisture availability field from one forecast cycle to the next. Preliminary results for a seven-day trial period indicate that hourly LST tendencies assimilated in a 1 hour LRUC showed improved simulated air and dewpoint temperatures for all cycles on each day. The LRUC will be used during the 2001 summer months to identify the impact of the assimilation on warm season QPF Results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors In the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The WMO and THORPEX co-sponsored fifth Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction will be organized by the Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System in Sedona, Arizona, United States, from 22 to 25 May 2012. Participants are expected to come from all the major NWP centres which are active in the area of impact studies. The workshop will be conducted in English. As for the first four workshops it is planned to produce a workshop report to be published as a WMO Technical Report that will include the papers submitted by the participants. The previous four workshops in this series took place in Geneva {April 1997), Toulouse (March 2000), Alpbach (March 2004) and Geneva (May 2008). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs), both with global and regional aspects were presented and conclusions were drawn concerning the contributions of the various components of the observing system to the large scale forecast skill at short and medium range (Workshop Proceedings were published as WMO World Weather Watch Technical Reports TD No. 868, 1034, 1228 and 1450). Since then, some significant changes and developments have affected the global observing system and more efforts have been devoted to meso-scale observing and assimilation systems. There has also been a trend toward using techniques other than OSEs to document data impact, such as adjoint-based sensitivity to observations or ensemble-based sensitivity. Field experiments have been carried out, in particular through the THORPEX project, and the use of targeted data has been assessed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Launch vehicle operations cost reduction through artificial intelligence techniques

NASA's Kennedy Space Center has attempted to develop AI methods in order to reduce the cost of launch vehicle ground operations as well as to improve the reliability and safety of such operations. Attention is presently given to cost savings estimates for systems involving launch vehicle firing-room software and hardware real-time diagnostics, as well as the nature of configuration control and the real-time autonomous diagnostics of launch-processing systems by these means. Intelligent launch decisions and intelligent weather forecasting are additional applications of AI being considered.

Davis, Tom C., Jr.↗

Research on diabatic initialization

The objective was to contribute to the improvement of the analyses of irrotational wind and moisture fields in the trophics through advancement in the technique of initialization by incorporating diabatic effects. Significant accomplishments made during the period May 1990 to April 1991 in the following areas are presented: (1) estimation of the uncertainty of daily synoptic analyses in the tropics; (2) normal modes of Laplace's tidal equations for zonal wavenumber zero; and (3) tropical initialization to ameliorate the spin-up problem of precipitation forecasts. The focus of current research and plans for next year are also presented.

Kasahara, Akira↗

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Effect of high latitude filtering on NWP skill

The high latitude filtering techniques commonly employed in global grid point models to eliminate the high frequency waves associated with the convergence of meridians, can introduce serious distortions which ultimately affect the solution at all latitudes. Experiments completed so far with the 4 deg x 5 deg, 9-level GLAS Fourth Order Model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects only minimally its forecasting skill. In one case, however, the use of pressure gradient filter significantly improved the forecast. Three day forecasts with the pressure gradient and operational filters are compared as are 5-day forecasts with no filter.

Kalnay, E.↗