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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

New and Improved GLDAS and NLDAS Data Sets and Data Services at HDISC/NASA

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. Generating global fields of these variables, however, is still a challenge. The goal of a land data assimilation system (LDAS)is to ingest satellite-and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes data and, thereby, facilitate hydrology and climate modeling, research, and forecast.

Rui, Hualan↗
NASA NTRS2012

New and Improved GLDAS Data Sets and Data Services at NASA GES DISC

The goal of a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) is to ingest satellite- and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes data and, thereby, facilitate hydrology and climate modeling, research, and forecast. With the motivation of creating more climatologically consistent data sets, NASA GSFC's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory has generated more than 60 years (Jan. 1948-- Dec. 2008) of Global LDAS Version 2 (GLDAS-2) data, by using the Princeton Forcing Data Set and upgraded versions of Land Surface Models (LSMs). GLDAS data and data services are provided at NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), in collaboration with HSL and LDAS.

Rui, Hualan↗
NASA NTRS1973

Use of Polarization Lidar for Investigation of Meteorological Formations

This paper presents the results of theoretical and experimental, investigations of depolarization characteristics of different meteorological formations. Experimental investigations are carried out with a monostatic lidar. The ruby laser radiation is polarized in a vertical plane. The radiation reflected is accepted by a lens system of 150 rom in diameter and a viewing angle of 12' and further it is divided by Wollaston prism into the components polarized orthogonally. In this case the principal plane of the prism is exposed parallel with the laser polarization plane. Investigations show the degree of radiation polarization, reflected from water clouds, to be changed within 1/0.7 (seldom up to 0.6) depending on their density. In most cases a signal reflected from the cloud leading edge is polarized completely. The time shift is observed between polarized and crosspolarized components of a Fignal, reflected from a cloud, depending on the density of a meteorological object. While penetrating into the cloud depth a degree of polarization decreases up to 0.8-0.7, and the character of this decrease is different for various types of clouds. For crystal clouds the shift between the components of the reflected signal is not observed and the magnitude of polarization degree amounts to 0.1/0.3 in comparison with water clouds. The polarization degree of radiation reflected by fog is not less than 0.6, and that in the rains of average intensity (about 5 mm/h) is always about 1. The authors have suggested an algorithm of numerical solution of nonstationary transfer equation in the vector form to forecast the influence of multiple scattering effects on polarization characteristics of the lidar light signal. The method of statistical simulation (Monte-Carlo technique) forms the basis of the algorithm. Numerical estimates obtained for a model of stratocumulus at lambda = 0.6943 microns under boundary conditions close to the conditions of natural experiment being discussed proved to be in a good agreement with the results of observation. Specifically, Fig. 1 shows the profiles of polarization (p) versus depth (L) of the following drop formations: fog (curve 1) with horizontal meteorological visibility of 4 km two stratocumulus at a height of 1100 m with the attenuation factors delta = 0.01m(exp -1) (curve 2) and delta = 0.05m(exp -1) (curve 3). Curve 3 shows the results of numerical estimates and the value of their statistical error.

Balin, Yu. S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Key Predictors of Airport Runway Configurations Using Learning Algorithms

Advanced traffic flow management automation will need accurate predictions of airport runway configurations. Terminal area weather and traffic demand are generally considered to be the most significant factors in predicting runway configuration. Weather information is forecasted across multiple features, including wind direction, wind speed, gusts, cloud ceilings, visibility, temperature, and precipitation, among many others. We use machine learning techniques on historical weather and runway data to determine weather features that correlate well with runway configurations. We analyze the predictive capability of weather features using different learning models trained on data from four major U.S. airports: Atlanta (ATL), Washington – Dulles (IAD), New York – Kennedy (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO). Wind direction alone is strongly correlated with runway configurations above all other examined factors, as expected. This correlation is the most significant component of the ~80% prediction accuracy in selecting between the two most frequently used runway configurations. However, individual airports show variations on how well the runway configuration decisions correlate with wind direction. While wind direction was identified as the most significant indicator of configuration decisions in ATL, IAD, and JFK, it did not emerge as such at SFO. Traffic demand was not found to be a strong factor in predicting runway configurations at any of the airports analyzed. In rare instances, when high demand cannot be accommodated within the current configuration, temporary changes are likely to be attributable to demand. However, these occurrences are so limited in number that their overall effect is not sufficient to consider traffic demand as a major indicator of runway configuration at the airports analyzed.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydroDCM: Hydrological Domain-Conditioned Modulation for Cross-Reservoir Inflow Prediction

Deep learning models have shown promise in reservoir inflow prediction, yet their performance often deteriorates when applied to different reservoirs due to distributional differences, referred to as the domain shift problem. Domain generalization (DG) solutions aim to address this issue by extracting domain-invariant representations that mitigate errors in unseen domains. However, in hydrological settings, each reservoir exhibits unique inflow patterns, while some metadata beyond observations like spatial information exerts indirect but significant influence. This mismatch limits the applicability of conventional DG techniques to many-domain hydrological systems. To overcome these challenges, we propose HydroDCM, a scalable DG framework for cross-reservoir inflow forecasting. Spatial metadata of reservoirs is used to construct pseudo-domain labels that guide adversarial learning of invariant temporal features. During inference, HydroDCM adapts these features through light-weight conditioning layers informed by the target reservoir’s metadata, reconciling DG’s invariance with location-specific adaptation. Experiment results on 30 real-world reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art DG baselines under many-domain conditions and remains computationally efficient.

Hu, Pengfei [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000367130950)↗
NASA NTRS1988

Objective detection and forecasting of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): A status report

Clear-air turbulence has become the largest single cause of weather-related injuries occurring in commercial carriers at cruising altitudes. A technique for objective operational CAT detection (the SCATR index) has been formulated. Its physical basis ties CAT to total energy dissipation as a response to meso- and synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with upper-level jet stream/frontal zones. Early case studies using properly analyzed routine RAOB rawinsonde sounding data have shown promise.

Keller, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Testing real WIMPs with CTAO

We forecast the reach of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO) to the full set of real representations within the paradigm of minimal dark matter. We employ effective field theory techniques to compute the annihilation cross section and photon spectrum that results when fermionic dark matter is the neutral component of an arbitrary odd and real representation of SU(2), including the Sommerfeld enhancement, next-to-leading log resummation of the relevant electroweak effects, and the contribution from bound states. We also compute the corresponding signals for scalar dark matter, with the exception of the bound state contribution. Results are presented for all real representations from the ~ 3 TeV triplet (or wino), a 3 of SU(2), to the ~ 300 TeV tredecuplet, a 13 of SU(2) that is at the threshold of the unitarity bound. Using these results, we forecast that with 500 hrs of Galactic Center observations and assuming background systematics are controlled at the level of $\mathcal{(O)}$(1%), then should no signal emerge, CTAO could exclude all representations up to the 11 of SU(2) in even the most conservative models for the dark-matter density in the inner galaxy, in both the fermionic and scalar dark matter cases. Assuming the default CTAO configuration, the tredecuplet will marginally escape exclusion, although we outline steps that CTAO could take to test even this scenario. In summary, CTAO appears poised to make a definitive statement on whether real WIMPs constitute the dark matter of our universe.

Models for Dark Matter↗
NASA NTRS1981

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Ayati, M. B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geostationary Satellite Retrievals with Irradiances and Cloud Properties / Processed Data

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records sky brightness temperatures and irradiances at several wavelengths. From these the cloud microphysical and optical properties can be routinely retrieved. These properties are derived using the technique proposed by Minnis et al. 2020, and is similar to the technique used for deriving cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The derived GOES properties for the duration of the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) within the domain are reported here. Nominally the retrieved dataset has a 30- minute temporal and a 9 km spatial resolution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Objective Identification of Dust in Satellite Imagery

Airborne dust has broad adverse effects on human activity, including aviation, human health, and agriculture. Remote sensing observations are used to detect dust and aerosols in the atmosphere using long established techniques. False color Red-Green-Blue (RGB) imagery using band differences sensitive to dust absorption (Dust RGB) is currently used operationally to assist forecasters and decision-makers in identifying dust at night, but there are still limitations, subjectivity, and nuances to image interpretation making night-time dust identification difficult even for experts. This study applies machine learning to the problem of night-time dust detection with a simple random forest (RF) model using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) infrared imagery, band differences sensitive to dust absorption, and Dust RGB color components as inputs to the model. The RF model achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels and 99.96% of no-dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. The addition of a single null case to the training data set drastically reduces error in labeling no-dust pixels as dust from 45% to 14.5%. Application of the machine learning model to the April 13–14, 2019 dust event demonstrates the ability of the model to identify dust during night-time hours when visual dust detection is limited by the cooling ground surface characteristics.

dust↗
NASA NTRS1996

Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the GP model which in turn produces the pre-schedule of the optimal control model. Some preliminary results based on a hypothetical test case will be presented for the load forecasting module. The computer codes for the three modules will be made available fe adoption by bus operating agencies. Sample results will be provided using these models. The software will be a useful tool for supporting the control systems for the Electric Bus project of NASA.

Momoh, James↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing the interactions between particulate matter and cloud properties over two populated cities in Texas using WRF-Chem fine-resolution modeling

Accurate modeling of aerosol-cloud interactions is essential for reliable weather and air quality simulations, given their significant impact on precipitation patterns, cloud dynamics, and aerosol distributions. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to examine the impact of enhanced meteorological simulations, achieved through advanced microphysics parameterization supported by data assimilation techniques, on air quality across Texas on August 19 and 20, 2022. We tested four distinct configurations: (1) the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics scheme, (2) Morrison's with observation nudging, (3) the Spectral Bin Microphysics (SBM), and (4) SBM with observation nudging. While the SBM scheme is known for its detailed representation of aerosol-cloud interactions, our focus was on how improvements in meteorological accuracy translate to more precise air quality simulations. Our findings demonstrated a progressive improvement in simulation accuracy, starting with the Morrison's scheme and further enhanced by adopting the SBM scheme, complemented by incorporating observation nudging. Specifically, the combination of the SBM scheme and the nudging substantially enhanced the model's ability to capture convective precipitation events, as shown by better alignment with NEXRAD radar reflectivity, with R increasing from –0.21 to 0.82, IOA from 0.10 to 0.87, and NMB decreasing from 99% to 34% in Houston. The enhanced meteorology translated into more accurate PM 2.5 concentration simulations, particularly through the more accurate representation of aerosol washout during precipitation events. In Houston, the SBM scheme with nudging improved the model's PM 2.5 simulations significantly, with NMB decreasing from –20% to 5% and IOA improving from 0.43 to 0.61. In San Antonio, improvements were also notable, with NMB improved from –27% to –22%, R increased from 0.48 to 0.82, and IOA increased from 0.66 to 0.86. Furthermore, our results underscore the crucial role of accurate meteorological simulations in refining our understanding of aerosol behaviors in relation to precipitation patterns, directly enhancing the reliability and effectiveness of air quality modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surveilling Influenza Incidence With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web Traffic Data: Demonstration Using a Novel Dataset

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden worldwide. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and forecasting future outbreaks is desirable to provide more timely responses to influenza epidemics. This study aimed to present the first implementation of a novel dataset by demonstrating its ability to supplement traditional disease surveillance at multiple spatial resolutions. We used internet traffic data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website to determine the potential usability of this data source. Additionally, we tested the traffic generated by 10 influenza-related pages in 8 states and 9 census divisions within the United States and compared it against clinical surveillance data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗