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At least 469 records · Page 26

Transactive System: Part II: Analysis of Two Pilot Transactive Systems using Foundational Theory and Metrics

This document is the second of a two-part report. Part 1 reviewed several demonstrations of transactive control and compared them in terms of their payoff functions, control decisions, information privacy, and mathematical solution concepts. It was suggested in Part 1 that these four listed components should be adopted for meaningful comparison and design of future transactive systems. Part 2 proposes qualitative and quantitative metrics that will be needed to compare alternative transactive systems. It then uses the analysis and design principles from Part 1 while conducting more in-depth analysis of two transactive demonstrations: the American Electric Power (AEP) gridSMART Demonstration, which used a double-auction market mechanism, and a consensus method like that used in the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration. Ultimately, metrics must be devised and used to meaningfully compare alternative transactive systems. One significant contribution of this report is an observation that the decision function used for thermostat control in the AEP gridSMART Demonstration has superior performance if its decision function is recast to more accurately reflect the power that will be used under for thermostatic control under alternative market outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Report series: Evaluation, Finding of Effect, and Mitigation Documentation for the 1960s Dormitories and 1950s Quonset Hut Foundations, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada [3 Reports Consolidated]

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to modernize the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada, to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Programs, and Environmental Management mission requirements. These plans—including anticipated demolitions, consolidations, and rebuilding at Mercury—are considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 U.S.C. § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 U.S.C. § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of Mercury in 2017. This effort resulted in the identification, recording, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District, as well as the identification of its contributing components. This district was recommended eligible to the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP or National Register) under Criteria A and C, but was unevaluated under Criteria B and D at that time. The Mercury Historic District contains 153 individual landscapes, buildings, and structures. Of these resources, DRI recommends all except one as contributing elements of the historic district during its period of significance corresponding to nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. During most of the Cold War, the land now called the NNSS was referred to as the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This report evaluates resources dating to the 1950s and 1960s between Jangle and Knothole Streets and south of Ranger Avenue in Mercury prior to the proposed demolition of all resources in that area between Sandstone and Greenhouse Avenues as a phase of the larger modernization program mentioned above. Although the Mercury Historic District as a whole is eligible to the National Register, further evaluation of these properties, as detailed in this report, indicates that none are individually eligible under any of the Secretary of Interior’s Significance Criteria, either at the national or local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parsimonious Inference Information-Theoretic Foundations for a Complete Theory of Machine Learning (CIS-LDRD Project 218313 Final Technical Report)

This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Trinity High Explosive Implosion System: The Foundation for Precision Explosive Applications

This article is set during the 1944 and 1945 final push to complete Project Y—the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos—and focuses primarily on overcoming the challenge of creating and demonstrating a successful convergent explosive implosion to turn a subcritical quantity of plutonium into a critical mass. The critical mass would then efficiently yield kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent energy in about a microsecond, demonstrating the implosion atomic bomb concept. This work culminated in the Trinity atomic test near Alamogordo on July 16, 1945. This implosion effect demarcated the approach to explosive science and technology the Laboratory has followed ever since, including development of high-explosive synthesis and formulation, small and large test and diagnostic facilities, shock dynamics theory, high-explosive system design engineering, and three-dimensional implosion modeling and simulation using some of the fastest computers in the world. This work also ushered in a period of broader application of precision high explosives in conventional munitions, demolition, mining and oil exploration, and space travel.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Classified library critical in Lab’s Annual Assessment of weapons to U.S. President. National Security Resource Center’s collections are the foundation to stockpile confidence

One of the most important accomplishments every year at LANL is a letter sent by the Laboratory Director that ultimately reaches the President of the United States. The subject is the current state of the weapons for which the Lab is responsible. Known as the Annual Assessment letter, it is a culmination of nearly 14 months’ worth of work and the contributions of more than 1,000 Lab staff members. Its classified contents come from the Lab’s Annual Assessment, which is an approximately 100-page document evaluating the safety, security and effectiveness of the stockpile.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Roundtable on Foundational Science for Carbon-Neutral Hydrogen Technologies (Technology Status Document)

This document summarizes the status of carbon-neutral hydrogen production, storage and transport, and utilization. The state of the art in the implementation, limitations, and challenges of these technologies are summarized. Sources of hydrogen are broadly categorized as hydrcoarbons or water and the processes used to convert these sources to hydrogen as catalytic, thermochemical, or electrochemical. Catalytic steam methane reforming of methane is the dominant process today. Other processes have smaller production volumes and the technology is less mature, but are being deployed at increasing rates, most notably water electrolyzers for hydrogen fueling stations. Efficient transport and storage of hydrogen is one of the major challenges facing a hydrogen-based energy economy. This arises in part from its low volumetric energy density necessitating very high pressures or cryogenic temperatures to store sufficient amounts for practical applications. High-pressure compressed hydrogen cylinders are the incumbent hydrogen storage technology for applications such as light-duty fuel cell electric vehicles, for example. The storage of hydrogen in materials or in chemicals is being pursued to address the issues associated with compression, such as parasitic energy loss and weight, size, and cost of storage containers. The complex nature of the chemical and physical processes involved in the uptake, storage, and release of hydrogen has slowed the discovery of suitable hydrogen storage materials. Both small and large-scale storage face the challenge of embrittlement of the storage media by hydrogen. There is a myriad of uses of hydrogen offering the promises of improving the efficiency of various applications and reducing or eliminating CO 2 emissions. These range from direct electrochemical conversion to electricity to power vehicles and grid-level stationary applications to combustion to production of chemicals and commodities. One of the most impactful applications in terms of reduction of CO 2 emissions is fuel cell passenger vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles such as class 8 trucks. The challenges facing widespread deployment of fuel cells, beyond the major hurdle of the lack of a hydrogen distribution infrastructure, are cost and durability, primarily related to the precious metal cathode catalyst and its durability. The other uses of hydrogen from conversion to hydrocarbons, polymer upcycling, and upgrading of bio-oils are at varying stages of maturity and also face fundamental challenges associated with catalytic processes and materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Basic Energy Sciences Roundtable: Foundational Science for Carbon-Neutral Hydrogen Technologies

The amount of molecular hydrogen used worldwide is enormous; about 70 million metric tons are produced globally every year, with approximately 10 million metric tons produced within the U.S. alone. 1 Hydrogen is used primarily by the industrial sector for oil refining; chemical production, especially for ammonia; steel manufacturing; and transportation fuels. With the recent announcement of the Hydrogen Shot, the first U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Earthshot, the DOE declared a near-term focus on “accelerating breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade.” Consequently, there is a compelling need for novel approaches to enable hydrogen processes and technologies that do not emit carbon dioxide (i.e., are carbon-neutral). Innovative hydrogen research and development is required to impact how hydrogen is produced, stored, transported, converted, and used. Although progress has been made over the previous two decades, fundamental research can play a critical role in overcoming the technical hurdles that continue to limit implementation of economically viable systems and processes for carbon-neutral hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Mathematical Foundations for Nonlocal Interface Problems: Multiscale Simulations of Heterogeneous Materials (Final LDRD Report)

Nonlocal models provide a much-needed predictive capability for important Sandia mission applications, ranging from fracture mechanics for nuclear components to subsurface flow for nuclear waste disposal, where traditional partial differential equations (PDEs) models fail to capture effects due to long-range forces at the microscale and mesoscale. However, utilization of this capability is seriously compromised by the lack of a rigorous nonlocal interface theory, required for both application and efficient solution of nonlocal models. To unlock the full potential of nonlocal modeling we developed a mathematically rigorous and physically consistent interface theory and demonstrate its scope in mission-relevant exemplar problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Powering the Blue Economy Foundational Research & Development Topics Reliability for Marine Energy Power Systems

Ocean observing platforms are deployed across the world’s oceans to collect meteorological and oceanographic data. Current technology makes use of solar panels and battery banks to provide power to these platforms, which can be challenging at high latitudes due to lack of solar insolation and cold temperatures. Marine renewable energy (MRE) generation offers a potential improvement in consistent power generation throughout the year for this use on ocean observation buoys. This report analyzes existing reliability of high latitude coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys to determine performance standards that MRE generation sources must meet to become viable power sources for these remote systems. Using measurements recorded from the U.S. National Data Buoy Center’s coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys, the analysis calculated the historic data availability – or the percentage of time a measurement is recorded – to evaluate the reliability of ocean observation buoys. The results show that coastal weather buoys operate at 74% data availability and the tsunami detection systems operate at an average 72% data availability. The results describe the total reliability of the system, including many different types of failures not associated with the power system such as mooring failures or equipment failures caused by extreme weather. Power system outages may only account for a small portion of the system failures. Reliability is an important design criterion for the power system of ocean observation platforms. Future power systems that would be designed for these buoys, such as an MRE generator, need to have a minimum reliability of 72% and 74% to meet the overall performance of the weather buoys and tsunami buoys, respectively. However, power system reliability likely needs to be much higher than overall system reliability, so that power system outages do not negatively impact the overall performance of the buoy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

How is statistical thinking useful for evaluating foundation models?

Good’s statement appears to be rather prescient – while humanity has marched on through to the 21st century, modern artificial intelligence (AI), driven by a menagerie of immense deep-neural-network architectures aided with parallel computation, seems positioned to change life as we know it. It would be an understatement to say that the world has been captivated by AI. Recent engineering feats, such as autonomous vehicles and generative AI, have gripped the public sphere, and AI is poised to disrupt a host of industries – including software, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, manufacturing, entertainment, and a slew of others; indeed, one is hard pressed to find any industry that does not claim to bear an impact from the so-called AI revolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗