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NASA NTRS2003

Heats of Segregation of BCC Metals Using Ab Initio and Quantum Approximate Methods

Many multicomponent alloys exhibit surface segregation, in which the composition at or near a surface may be substantially different from that of the bulk. A number of phenomenological explanations for this tendency have been suggested, involving, among other things, differences among the components' surface energies, molar volumes, and heats of solution. From a theoretical standpoint, the complexity of the problem has precluded a simple, unified explanation, thus preventing the development of computational tools that would enable the identification of the driving mechanisms for segregation. In that context, we investigate the problem of surface segregation in a variety of bcc metal alloys by computing dilute-limit heats of segregation using both the quantum-approximate energy method of Bozzolo, Ferrante and Smith (BFS), and all-electron density functional theory. In addition, the composition dependence of the heats of segregation is investigated using a BFS-based Monte Carlo procedure, and, for selected cases of interest, density functional calculations. Results are discussed in the context of a simple picture that describes segregation behavior as the result of a competition between size mismatch and alloying effects

Good, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2012

On Spectral Invariance of Single Scattering Albedo for Weakly Absorbing Wavelengths

The single scattering albedo omega (sub 0 lambda) in atmospheric radiative transfer is the ratio of the scattering coefficient to the total extinction coefficient. For cloud water droplets both the scattering and absorption coefficients, thus the single scattering albedo, are functions of wavelength A and droplet size r. In this presentation we will show that for water droplets at weakly absorbing wavelengths, the ratio omega (sub 0 lambda)(r). The slope and intercept of the linear function are wavelength independent and sum to unity. This relationship allows for a representation of any single scattering albedo omega (sub 0 lambda) via one known spectrum omega (sub 0 lambda)(r(sub o)). We will provide a simple physical explanation of the discovered relationship. In addition to water droplets, similar linear relationships were found for the single scattering albedo of non-spherical ice crystals. The single scattering albedo $\omega _ {0\lambda }$ in atmospheric radiative transfer is the ratio of the scattering coefficient to the total extinction coefficient. For cloud water droplets both the scattering and absorption coefficients, and thus the single scattering albedo, are functions of wavelength $\lambda $ and droplet size $r$. We show that for water droplets at weakly absorbing wavelengths, the ratio $\omega _ {0\lambda } (r)$/$\omega _ {0\lambda } (r_{0})$ of two single scattering albedo spectra for two different droplet sizes is a linear function of $\omega _{0\lambda }(r)$. The slope and intercept of the linear function are wavelength independent and sum to unity. This relationship allows for a representation of any single scattering albedo $\omega_{0\lambda }(r)$ via one known spectrum $\omega_{0\lambda }(r_{0})$. We provide a simple physical explanation of the discovered relationship. Similar linear relationships characterize the single scattering albedo of non-spherical ice crystals.

Marshak, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2013

On a Formal Tool for Reasoning About Flight Software Cost Analysis

A report focuses on the development of flight software (FSW) cost estimates for 16 Discovery-class missions at JPL. The techniques and procedures developed enabled streamlining of the FSW analysis process, and provided instantaneous confirmation that the data and processes used for these estimates were consistent across all missions. The research provides direction as to how to build a prototype rule-based system for FSW cost estimation that would provide (1) FSW cost estimates, (2) explanation of how the estimates were arrived at, (3) mapping of costs, (4) mathematical trend charts with explanations of why the trends are what they are, (5) tables with ancillary FSW data of interest to analysts, (6) a facility for expert modification/enhancement of the rules, and (7) a basis for conceptually convenient expansion into more complex, useful, and general rule-based systems.

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Quantifying Effects of Voids in Woven Ceramic Matrix Composites

Randomness in woven ceramic matrix composite architecture has been found to cause large variability in stiffness and strength. The inherent voids are an aspect of the architecture that may cause a significant portion of the variability. A study is undertaken to investigate the effects of many voids of random sizes and distributions. Response surface approximations were formulated based on void parameters such as area and length fractions to provide an estimate of the effective stiffness. Obtaining quantitative relationships between the properties of the voids and their effects on stiffness of ceramic matrix composites are of ultimate interest, but the exploratory study presented here starts by first modeling the effects of voids on an isotropic material. Several cases with varying void parameters were modeled which resulted in a large amount of variability of the transverse stiffness and out-of-plane shear stiffness. An investigation into a physical explanation for the stiffness degradation led to the observation that the voids need to be treated as an entity that reduces load bearing capabilities in a space larger than what the void directly occupies through a corrected length fraction or area fraction. This provides explanation as to why void volume fraction is not the only important factor to consider when computing loss of stiffness.

Goldsmith, Marlana B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Visualizing Flutter Mechanism as Traveling Wave Through Animation of Simulation Results for the Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport Wind-Tunnel Model

It has long been recognized that frequency and phasing of structural modes in the presence of airflow play a fundamental role in the occurrence of flutter. Animation of simulation results for the long, slender Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel model demonstrates that, for the case of mass-ballasted nacelles, the flutter mode can be described as a traveling wave propagating downstream. Such a characterization provides certain insights, such as (1) describing the means by which energy is transferred from the airflow to the structure, (2) identifying airspeed as an upper limit for speed of wave propagation, (3) providing an interpretation for a companion mode that coalesces in frequency with the flutter mode but becomes very well damped, (4) providing an explanation for bursts of response to uniform turbulence, and (5) providing an explanation for loss of low frequency (lead) phase margin with increases in dynamic pressure (at constant Mach number) for feedback systems that use sensors located upstream from active control surfaces. Results from simulation animation, simplified modeling, and wind-tunnel testing are presented for comparison. The simulation animation was generated using double time-integration in Simulink of vertical accelerometer signals distributed over wing and fuselage, along with time histories for actuated control surfaces. Crossing points for a zero-elevation reference plane were tracked along a network of lines connecting the accelerometer locations. Accelerometer signals were used in preference to modal displacement state variables in anticipation that the technique could be used to animate motion of the actual wind-tunnel model using data acquired during testing. Double integration of wind-tunnel accelerometer signals introduced severe drift even with removal of both position and rate biases such that the technique does not currently work. Using wind-tunnel data to drive a Kalman filter based upon fitting coefficients to analytical mode shapes might provide a better means to animate the wind tunnel data.

Christhilf, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Shebalin, John V↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Global Albedo of the Moon at 1064 nm from LOLA

The Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) measures the backscattered energy of the returning altimetric laser pulse at its wavelength of 1064 nm, and these data are used to map the reflectivity of the Moon at zero-phase angle with a photometrically uniform data set. Global maps have been produced at 4 pixels per degree (about 8 kilometers at the equator) and 2 kilometers resolution within 20 deg latitude of each pole. The zero-phase geometry is insensitive to lunar topography, so these data enable characterization of subtle variations in lunar albedo, even at high latitudes where such measurements are not possible with the Sun as the illumination source. The geometric albedo of the Moon at 1064 nm was estimated from these data with absolute calibration derived from the Kaguya Multiband Imager and extrapolated to visual wavelengths. The LOLA estimates are within 2 sigma of historical measurements of geometric albedo. No consistent latitude-dependent variations in reflectance are observed, suggesting that solar wind does not dominate space weathering processes that modify lunar reflectance. The average normal albedo of the Moon is found to be much higher than that of Mercury consistent with prior measurements, but the normal albedo of the lunar maria is similar to that of Mercury suggesting a similar abundance of space weathering products. Regions within permanent shadow in the polar regions are found to be more reflective than polar surfaces that are sometimes illuminated. Limiting analysis to data with slopes less than 10 deg eliminates variations in reflectance due to mass wasting and shows a similar increased reflectivity within permanent polar shadow. Steep slopes within permanent shadow are also more reflective than similar slopes that experience at least some illumination. Water frost and a reduction in effectiveness of space weathering are offered as possible explanations for the increased reflectivity of permanent shadow; porosity is largely ruled out as the sole explanation. The south polar crater Shackleton is found to be among the most reflective craters in its size range globally but is not the most reflective, so mass wasting cannot be ruled out as a cause for the crater's anomalous reflectance. Models of the abundance of ice needed to account for the reflectance anomaly range from 3 to 14% by weight or area depending on assumptions regarding the effects of porosity on reflectance and whether ice is present as patches or is well mixed in the regolith. If differences in nanophase iron abundances are responsible for the anomaly, the permanently shadowed regions have between 50 and 80% the abundance of nanophase iron in mature lunar soil.

PSR↗

NASA NTRS2013

Solar Wind Strahl Broadening by Self-Generated Plasma Waves

This Letter reports on the results of numerical simulations which may provide a possible explanation for the strahl broadening during quiet solar conditions. The relevant processes involved in the broadening are due to kinetic quasi-linear wave-particle interaction. Making use of static analytical electron distribution in an inhomogeneous field, it is found that self-generated electrostatic waves at the plasma frequency, i.e., Langmuir waves, are capable of scattering the strahl component, resulting in energy and pitch-angle diffusion that broadens its velocity distribution significantly. The present theoretical results provide an alternative or complementary explanation to the usual whistler diffusion scenario, suggesting that self-induced electrostatic waves at the plasma frequency might play a key role in broadening the solar wind strahl during quiet solar conditions.

strahl↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Scaling of Broadband Shock-Associated Noise with Increasing Temperature

A physical explanation for the saturation of broadband shock-associated noise (BBSAN) intensity with increasing jet stagnation temperature has eluded investigators. An explanation is proposed for this phenomenon with the use of an acoustic analogy. To isolate the relevant physics, the scaling of BBSAN peak intensity level at the sideline observer location is examined. The equivalent source within the framework of an acoustic analogy for BBSAN is based on local field quantities at shock wave shear layer interactions. The equivalent source combined with accurate calculations of the propagation of sound through the jet shear layer, using an adjoint vector Green's function solver of the linearized Euler equations, allows for predictions that retain the scaling with respect to stagnation pressure and allows for saturation of BBSAN with increasing stagnation temperature. The sources and vector Green's function have arguments involving the steady Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes solution of the jet. It is proposed that saturation of BBSAN with increasing jet temperature occurs due to a balance between the amplication of the sound propagation through the shear layer and the source term scaling.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

trends↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cloudless Atmospheres for L/T Dwarfs and Extrasolar Giant Planets

The admitted, conventional scenario to explain the complex spectral evolution of brown dwarfs (BDs) since their first detection 20 years ago has always been the key role played by micron-size condensates, called "dust" or "clouds," in their atmosphere. This scenario, however, faces major problems, in particular the J-band brightening and the resurgence of FeH absorption at the L to T transition, and a physical first-principle understanding of this transition is lacking. In this Letter, we propose a new, completely different explanation for BD and extrasolar giant planet (EGP) spectral evolution, without the need to invoke clouds. We show that, due to the slowness of the CO/ CH4 and N2/NH3 chemical reactions, brown dwarf (L and T, respectively) and EGP atmospheres are subject to a thermo-chemical instability similar in nature to the fingering or chemical convective instability present in Earth oceans and at the Earth core/mantle boundary. The induced small-scale turbulent energy transport reduces the temperature gradient in the atmosphere, explaining the observed increase in near-infrared J-H and J-K colors of L dwarfs and hot EGPs, while a warming up of the deep atmosphere along the L to T transition, as the CO/CH4 instability vanishes, naturally solves the two aforementioned puzzles, and provides a physical explanation of the L to T transition. This new picture leads to a drastic revision of our understanding of BD and EGP atmospheres and their evolution.

Brown dwarf stars↗

NASA NTRS2017

Interpretable Categorization of Heterogeneous Time Series Data

We analyze data from simulated aircraft encounters to validate and inform the development of a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system. The high-dimensional and heterogeneous time series dataset is analyzed to discover properties of near mid-air collisions (NMACs) and categorize the NMAC encounters. Domain experts use these properties to better organize and understand NMAC occurrences. Existing solutions either are not capable of handling high-dimensional and heterogeneous time series datasets or do not provide explanations that are interpretable by a domain expert. The latter is critical to the acceptance and deployment of safety-critical systems. To address this gap, we propose grammar-based decision trees along with a learning algorithm. Our approach extends decision trees with a grammar framework for classifying heterogeneous time series data. A context-free grammar is used to derive decision expressions that are interpretable, application-specific, and support heterogeneous data types. In addition to classification, we show how grammar-based decision trees can also be used for categorization, which is a combination of clustering and generating interpretable explanations for each cluster. We apply grammar-based decision trees to a simulated aircraft encounter dataset and evaluate the performance of four variants of our learning algorithm. The best algorithm is used to analyze and categorize near mid-air collisions in the aircraft encounter dataset. We describe each discovered category in detail and discuss its relevance to aircraft collision avoidance.

Drones↗

NASA NTRS2018

EoC Study Update to Examine the Cost, Schedule and Technical Changes to NASA Projects

The original National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Explanation of Change (EoC) study was conducted in 2010 to understand the underlying causes of cost and schedule growth. The first study consisted of 25 missions launched from 2000 to 2010 and looked at the events that led to growth. These events were categorized into different bins that were rolled up to quantify whether the growth was due to internal planning, or internal execution, or from external forces and found that the growth was evenly distributed among those three categories. The result of the study presented nine considerations focused at reducing growth due to project external events and internal planning events. Although no one 'magic bullet' consideration was discovered in the previous work, the nine considerations taken as a whole were postulated to help reduce cost and schedule change in future NASA missions. A recent update was conducted that included investigating 8 missions developed since the previous study to determine if the results were different. Cost, schedule, and mass increases were analyzed from the start of Phase B through Preliminary Design Review and Critical Design Review to Launch. As shown in this paper, the results are better with overall cost and schedule growth being reduced. The paper will show a comparison of the previous results to the updated results to show specific reductions and provide an explanation of which recommendations were followed.

growth↗

NASA NTRS2017

Exploring the Evolutionary Accident Hypothesis: Are Extant Protein Folds the Fittest or the Luckiest?

Considering the range of functions proteins perform, it is surprising they fold into a relatively small set of structures or "folds" that facilitate such function. One explanation is that only a minority were fit enough to emerge from Darwinian selection during the early evolution of life. Alternatively, perhaps only a fraction of all possible folds were trialed. Understanding proto-catalyst selection will aid understanding of the origins and early evolution of life. To investigate which explanation is correct, we study a protein evolved in vitro to bind ATP by Jack Szostak (Fig. 1). This protein adopts a fold which is absent from nature. We are testing whether this fold would have possessed the capability to evolve that would have been essential to survive natural selection on early Earth. Folds that couldn't improve their fitness and evolve to perform new functions would have been replaced by rivals that could. To determine whether the fold is evolvable, we are attempting to change the function of the protein by rationally redesigning to bind GTP. Two design strategies in the region of the nucleobase have been implemented to provide hydrogen bonding partners for the ligand i) an insertion ii) a MET to ASN mutation. Redesigns are being studied computationally at Ames Research Center including free energy of binding calculations. Binding affinities of promising redesigns are to be validated by experimental collaborators at ForteBio using Super Streptavidin Biosensors. If the fold is found to be non-evolvable, this may suggest that many structures were trialed, but the majority were pruned on the basis of their evolvability. Alternatively, if the fold is demonstrated to be evolvable, it would be difficult to explain its absence from nature without considering the possibility that the fold simply wasn't sampled on early Earth. This would not only further our understanding of the origins of life on Earth but also suggest a common phe-nomenon of proto-catalyst evolution.

Shannon, G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Future of Big Earth Data Analytics

The state of the art of Big Earth Data Analytics can be expected to evolve rapidly in the coming years. The forces driving evolution come from both growth in the data and advancement in the field of data analytics. In the data area, advances in sensor instrumentation and platform miniaturization are increasing both data resolution and coverage, resulting in enormous growth in data Volume. Increases in temporal resolution in particular also generate demands for higher data Velocity. At the same time, the proliferation of instruments and the platforms on which they reside is increasing the Variety of datasets. The Variety increase in turn leads to questions about the Veracity of the data. In the algorithm area, powerful machine learning methods are coming to the fore, particularly Deep Neural Networks. These are powerful at detecting interesting features in the data, integrating many different measurements (i.e., data fusion), and classification problems. However, they are still challenging when seeking explanations of how natural or socio-economic phenomena work using Earth Observations. Thus, classical analysis techniques will remain relevant when the emphasis is on forming or testing explanations, as well as to support interactive data exploration.

Lynnes, Christopher↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Presentation material for Progress in Simulated Water Well Performance on Mars

This presentation reports on the results of some experimental work regarding the establishment and operation of water wells on Mars. These results were accomplished since this group reported on this concept at the AIAA Space conference in 2018. These experiments were conducted to improve the understanding of a Rodwell’s performance under Mars surface conditions. The motivation to improve this understanding results from the leverage that access to large quantities of water, already on Mars, gives to future human missions to that planet. Previous work by this group has described the likely location of these water deposits and the extensive history of terrestrial use of the Rodwell technique. The results reported in this presentation indicate several key points. First, it has been demonstrated that a stable pool of water can be maintained under Martian surface environmental conditions using an approach comparable to terrestrial Rodwells. Next, it was unexpectedly learned that the water pool exhibits some of the same structural characteristics – specifically an ice shelf just above the water pool – that are seen in terrestrial Rodwells. This finding directly affected the way in which test data was reduced. And finally the experimental data was used to generate equations for convection-driven evaporation and convective heat transfer. The evaporation results were found to follow the same trends as published results for experiments in terrestrial environments. But the results reported here have also extended the range of these trends into much smaller Rayleigh Number ranges than anything previously reported. It was also found that convective heat transfer does not following published results even in the same Rayleigh Number range. A suggested explanation for this result has been proposed based on phenomenon described in the literature, but this group continues to look at the results to see if a better explanation can be found.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2021

Far-infrared Polarization Spectrum of the OMC-1 Star-forming Region

We analyze the wavelength dependence of the far-infrared polarization fraction toward the OMC-1 star-formingregion using observations from HAWC+/SOFIA at 53, 89, 154, and 214μm. Wefind that the shape of the far-infrared polarization spectrum is variable across the cloud and that there is evidence of a correlation between theslope of the polarization spectrum and the average line-of-sight temperature. The slope of the polarization spectrumtends to be negative(falling toward longer wavelengths)in cooler regions and positive orflat in warmer regions.This is very similar to what was discovered inρOph A via SOFIA polarimetry at 89 and 154μm. Like the authorsof this earlier work, we argue that the most natural explanation for our falling spectra is line-of-sight superpositionof differing grain populations, with polarized emission from the warmer regions and less-polarized emission fromthe cooler ones. In contrast with the earlier work onρOph A, we do notfind a clear correlation of polarizationspectrum slope with column density. This suggests that falling spectra are attributable to variations in grainalignment efficiency in a heterogeneous cloud consistent with radiative torques theory. Alternative explanations inwhich variations in grain alignment efficiency are caused by varying gas density rather than by varying radiationintensity are disfavored.

Joseph M. Michail↗