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DOE OSTI2024

Remote Sensing Detection of Growing Season Freeze-Induced Defoliation of Montane Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Southern Utah, USA

Growing season freeze events pose a threat to quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), leading to canopy defoliation, reduced vigor, and increased mortality, especially for declining montane populations western North America. Detecting the spatial distribution and progression of this damage is challenging due to limited in situ observations in this region. This study represents the first attempt to comprehensively resolve the spatial extent of freeze-induced aspen canopy damage in southern Utah using multispectral remote sensing data. We developed an approach to detect the spatial and temporal dynamics of freeze-damaged aspen stands, focusing on a freeze event from 8–9 June 2020 in southern Utah. By integrating medium- (~250 to 500 m) and high-resolution (~10 m) satellite data, we employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to compare post-freeze conditions with historical norms and pre-freeze conditions. Our analysis revealed NDVI reductions of 0.10 to 0.40 from pre-freeze values and a second flush recovery. We introduced a pixel-based method to evaluate freeze vulnerability, establishing a strong correlation (R values 0.78 to 0.82) between the onset of the first flush (NDVI > 0.50) and the accumulation of 100 growing degree days (GDD). These methods support the potential for retrospective assessments, proactive forest monitoring, and forecasting future risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

engine control↗

NASA NTRS2009

Large Area Lunar Dust Flux Measurement Instrument

The instrument under development is designed to characterize the flux and size distribution of the lunar micrometeoroid and secondary ejecta environment. When deployed on the lunar surface, the data collected will benefit fundamental lunar science as well as enabling more reliable impact risk assessments for human lunar exploration activities. To perform this task, the instrument requirements are demanding. It must have as large a surface area as possible to sample the very sparse population of the larger potentially damage-inducing micrometeorites. It must also have very high sensitivity to enable it to measure the flux of small (<10 micron) micrometeorite and secondary ejecta dust particles. To be delivered to the lunar surface, it must also be very low mass, rugged and stow compactly. The instrument designed to meet these requirements is called FOMIS. It is a large-area thin film under tension (i.e. a drum) with multiple fiber optic displacement (FOD) sensors to monitor displacements of the film. This sensor was chosen since it can measure displacements over a wide dynamic range: 1 cm to sub-Angstrom. A prototype system was successfully demonstrated using the hypervelocity impact test facility at the University of Kent (Canterbury, UK). Based on these results, the prototype system can detect hypervelocity (approx.5 km/s) impacts by particles as small as 2 microns diameter. Additional tests using slow speeds find that it can detect secondary ejecta particles (which do not penetrate the film) with momentums as small as 15 pico-gram 100m/s, or nominally 5 microns diameter at 100 m/s.

Corsaro, R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gut microbiome dynamics and associations with mortality in critically ill patients

Abstract Background Critical illness and care within the intensive care unit (ICU) leads to profound changes in the composition of the gut microbiome. The impact of such changes on the patients and their subsequent disease course remains uncertain. We hypothesized that specific changes in the gut microbiome would be more harmful than others, leading to increased mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of critically ill adults in the ICU. We obtained rectal swabs from 52 patients and assessed the composition the gut microbiome using 16 S rRNA gene sequencing. We followed patients throughout their ICU course and evaluated their mortality rate at 28 days following admission to the ICU. We used selbal, a machine learning method, to identify the balance of microbial taxa most closely associated with 28-day mortality. Results We found that a proportional ratio of four taxa could be used to distinguish patients with a higher risk of mortality from patients with a lower risk of mortality (p = .02). We named this binarized ratio our microbiome mortality index (MMI). Patients with a high MMI had a higher 28-day mortality compared to those with a low MMI (hazard ratio, 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–4.3), and remained significant after adjustment for other ICU mortality predictors, including the presence of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score (hazard ratio, 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4–4.7). High mortality was driven by taxa from theAnaerococcus(genus) andEnterobacteriaceae(family), while lower mortality was driven byParasutterellaandCampylobacter(genera). Conclusions Dysbiosis in the gut of critically ill patients is an independent risk factor for increased mortality at 28 days after adjustment for clinically significant confounders. Gut dysbiosis may represent a potential therapeutic target for future ICU interventions.

Gastroenterology & Hepatology↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin for Optimizing Real-time Economy of the Integrated Energy Systems

Economic and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires real-time optimization (RTO) of the control and actions conducted on each system component. In this regard, digital twins (DTs), which consist of a physical system, a virtual system, and the data communication that occurs between the two, are essential for effective RTO. Through the data warehouse, the virtual system is constantly updated with real-time data from the physical system, and functions as the model in the optimization framework. The reduced-order model of the dynamic process model in the virtual system is used in the optimization framework. The optimization results are then returned, via the data warehouse, as control actions to the physical system. This work demonstrates the software capabilities of DT assets for an IES in the context of preparing a DT for an experimental system comprised of Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Thermal Energy Delivery System and battery system. For the virtual demonstration, the DTs encompass (1) a physical system, including the Modelica models of the Thermal Energy Delivery System and the battery system; (2) virtual optimization via the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) platform; and (3) the open-source data warehouse software DeepLynx. This work assesses the performance of ORCA, which utilizes a reduced-order model built using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and trained on the Modelica models and real-time data pipeline through the graph database hosted in DeepLynx. The proposed optimization workflow will be an RTO model based on DTs and the data they generate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1979

YF-17/ADEN system study

The YF-17 aircraft was evaluated as a candidate nonaxisymmetric nozzle flight demonstrator. Configuration design modifications, control system design, flight performance assessment, and program plan and cost we are summarized. Two aircraft configurations were studied. The first was modified as required to install only the augmented deflector exhaust nozzle (ADEN). The second one added a canard installation to take advantage of the full (up to 20 deg) nozzle vectoring capability. Results indicate that: (1) the program is feasible and can be accomplished at reasonable cost and low risk; (2) installation of ADEN increases the aircraft weight by 600 kg (1325 lb); (3) the control system can be modified to accomplish direct lift, pointing capability, variable static margin and deceleration modes of operation; (4) unvectored thrust-minus-drag is similar to the baseline YF-17; and (5) vectoring does not improve maneuvering performance. However, some potential benefits in direct lift, aircraft pointing, handling at low dynamic pressure and takeoff/landing ground roll are available. A 27 month program with 12 months of flight test is envisioned, with the cost estimated to be $15.9 million for the canard equipped aircraft and $13.2 million for the version without canard. The feasiblity of adding a thrust reverser to the YF-17/ADEN was investigated.

Gowadia, N. S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Flight Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of a Damaged Transport Aircraft

A study was undertaken at NASA Langley Research Center to establish, demonstrate, and apply methodology for modeling and implementing the aerodynamic effects of MANPADS damage to a transport aircraft into real-time flight simulation, and to demonstrate a preliminary capability of using such a simulation to conduct an assessment of aircraft survivability. Key findings from this study include: superpositioning of incremental aerodynamic characteristics to the baseline simulation aerodynamic model proved to be a simple and effective way of modeling damage effects; the primary effect of wing damage rolling moment asymmetry may limit minimum airspeed for adequate controllability, but this can be mitigated by the use of sideslip; combined effects of aerodynamics, control degradation, and thrust loss can result in significantly degraded controllability for a safe landing; and high landing speeds may be required to maintain adequate control if large excursions from the nominal approach path are allowed, but high-gain pilot control during landing can mitigate this risk.

Shah, Gautam H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS1988

The 25 kWe solar thermal Stirling hydraulic engine system: Conceptual design

The conceptual design and analysis of a solar thermal free-piston Stirling hydraulic engine system designed to deliver 25 kWe when coupled to a 11 meter test bed concentrator is documented. A manufacturing cost assessment for 10,000 units per year was made. The design meets all program objectives including a 60,000 hr design life, dynamic balancing, fully automated control, more than 33.3 percent overall system efficiency, properly conditioned power, maximum utilization of annualized insolation, and projected production costs. The system incorporates a simple, rugged, reliable pool boiler reflux heat pipe to transfer heat from the solar receiver to the Stirling engine. The free-piston engine produces high pressure hydraulic flow which powers a commercial hydraulic motor that, in turn, drives a commercial rotary induction generator. The Stirling hydraulic engine uses hermetic bellows seals to separate helium working gas from hydraulic fluid which provides hydrodynamic lubrication to all moving parts. Maximum utilization of highly refined, field proven commercial components for electric power generation minimizes development cost and risk.

White, Maurice↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under off-nominal conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace, demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground-structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV's predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV's trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Portia Banerjee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗

NASA NTRS2012

Robust, Practical Adaptive Control for Launch Vehicles

A modern mechanization of a classical adaptive control concept is presented with an application to launch vehicle attitude control systems. Due to a rigorous flight certification environment, many adaptive control concepts are infeasible when applied to high-risk aerospace systems; methods of stability analysis are either intractable for high complexity models or cannot be reconciled in light of classical requirements. Furthermore, many adaptive techniques appearing in the literature are not suitable for application to conditionally stable systems with complex flexible-body dynamics, as is often the case with launch vehicles. The present technique is a multiplicative forward loop gain adaptive law similar to that used for the NASA X-15 flight research vehicle. In digital implementation with several novel features, it is well-suited to application on aerodynamically unstable launch vehicles with thrust vector control via augmentation of the baseline attitude/attitude-rate feedback control scheme. The approach is compatible with standard design features of autopilots for launch vehicles, including phase stabilization of lateral bending and slosh via linear filters. In addition, the method of assessing flight control stability via classical gain and phase margins is not affected under reasonable assumptions. The algorithm s ability to recover from certain unstable operating regimes can in fact be understood in terms of frequency-domain criteria. Finally, simulation results are presented that confirm the ability of the algorithm to improve performance and robustness in realistic failure scenarios.

Orr, Jeb. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing time-resolved x-ray diffraction diagnostics at the National Ignition Facility (invited)

As part of a program to measure phase transition timescales in materials under dynamic compression, we have designed new x-ray imaging diagnostics to record multiple x-ray diffraction measurements during a single laser-driven experiment. Our design places several ns-gated hybrid CMOS (hCMOS) sensors within a few cm of a laser-driven target. The sensors must be protected from an extremely harsh environment, including debris, electromagnetic pulses, and unconverted laser light. Another key challenge is reducing the x-ray background relative to the faint diffraction signal. Building on the success of our predecessor (Target Diffraction In Situ), we implemented a staged approach to platform development. First, we built a demonstration diagnostic (Gated Diffraction Development Diagnostic) with two hCMOS sensors to confirm we could adequately protect them from the harsh environment and also acquire acceptable diffraction data. This allowed the team to quickly assess the risks and address the most significant challenges. Here, we also collected scientifically useful data during development. Leveraging what we learned, we recently developed a much more ambitious instrument (Flexible Imaging Diffraction Diagnostic for Laser Experiments) that can field up to eight hCMOS sensors in a flexible geometry and participate in back-to-back shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The design also allows for future iterations, such as faster hCMOS sensors and an embedded x-ray streak camera. The enhanced capabilities of the new instrument required a much more complex design, and the unexpected issues encountered on the first few shots at NIF remind us that complexity has consequences. Our progress in addressing these challenges is described herein, as is our current focus on improving data quality by reducing x-ray background and quantifying the uncertainties of our diffraction measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2007

Technical Evaluation Report for Symposium AVT-147: Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design

The complexity of modern military systems, as well as the cost and difficulty associated with experimentally verifying system and subsystem design makes the use of high-fidelity based simulation a future alternative for design and development. The predictive ability of such simulations such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structural mechanics (CSM) have matured significantly. However, for numerical simulations to be used with confidence in design and development, quantitative measures of uncertainty must be available. The AVT 147 Symposium has been established to compile state-of-the art methods of assessing computational uncertainty, to identify future research and development needs associated with these methods, and to present examples of how these needs are being addressed and how the methods are being applied. Papers were solicited that address uncertainty estimation associated with high fidelity, physics-based simulations. The solicitation included papers that identify sources of error and uncertainty in numerical simulation from either the industry perspective or from the disciplinary or cross-disciplinary research perspective. Examples of the industry perspective were to include how computational uncertainty methods are used to reduce system risk in various stages of design or development.

Radespiel, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS2020

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

(1) Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst—false springs—which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. (2) Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. (3) All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early‐leafout species (i.e., Aesculus hippocastanum , Alnus glutinosa , Betula pendula ) versus a decline or no change in risk among late‐leafout species (i.e., Fagus sylvatica , Fraxinus excelsior , Quercus robur ). (4) Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.

false spring↗

DOE OSTI2025

Templates for Risk Informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE)

We investigate recovery of geometric structure from networks embedded in manifolds with spatially varying curvature, extending the constant-curvature framework of Lubold et al. (2023). Our work supports cascade risk assessment in critical infrastructure through the Templates for Risk-informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE) framework. Simulations on a bi-modal Gaussian surface show that constant-curvature methods yield weighted averages shaped by clique patterns, while hierarchical clustering identifies distinct regimes. Localized estimation, however, reveals boundary contamination in transitional regions. To address heterogeneity, we develop distance metrics for graphs with edge and node features, proving their metric validity, and validate them via deterministic graph generation from canonical tilings. We further propose a diffusion-based anomaly detection approach that treats networks as glued manifolds, using curvature discontinuities to detect structural anomalies. Employing the carré-du-champ operator and scalar curvature, we achieve robust anomaly discrimination, demonstrated on the Singapore Water Treatment (SWaT) dataset with joint network-traffic and sensor features. Integration with TRACE reveals how curvature shapes cascade dynamics: positive curvature impedes, while negative curvature accelerates propagation. This geometric perspective provides interpretable risk metrics and visualization tools for critical infrastructure managers. While full validation remains ongoing, our contributions establish a rigorous foundation for geometric analysis of network resilience and cascade vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗