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At least 469 records · Page 26

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Overview of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2: Retrieval, Cross-Mission Comparison, and Global Monitoring for GPP

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), launched in July 2014, is capable of measuring Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), a functional proxy for terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Although its primary mission is to measure the column-averaged mixing ratio of CO2 (Xco(sub 2)) to constrain global carbon source/sink distribution, one of the OCO-2 spectrometers allows for a robust SIF retrieval solely based on solar Fraunhofer lines. Here we present a technical overview of the OCO-2 SIF product, aiming to provide the scientific community guidance on best practices for data analysis, interpretation, and application. This overview consists of the retrieval algorithms, OCO-2 specific bias correction, retrieval uncertainty evaluation, cross-mission comparison with other existing SIF products, and a global-scale examination of the SIF-GPP relationship. With the initial three years of data (September 2014 onward), we compared OCO-2 SIF with retrievals from Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and examined its relationship with FLUXCOM and MODIS GPP datasets. Our results show that OCO-2 SIF, along with GOSAT products, closely resemble the mean spatial and temporal patterns of FLUXCOM GPP from regions to the globe. Compared with GOME-2, however, OCO-2 depicts a more realistic spatial contrast between the tropics and extra-tropics. The linear relationship between OCO-2 SIF and existing modeled GPP products diverges somewhat across biomes at the global scale, consistent with previous GOSAT or GOME-2 based findings when modeled GPP products were used, but in contrast to a consistent cross-biome SIF-GPP relationship obtained at flux tower sites with OCO-2 products. This contrast suggests a critical need to reconcile differences in diverse SIF and GPP products and the relationships among them. Overall, the OCO-2 SIF products are robust and valuable for monitoring the global terrestrial carbon cycle and for constraining the carbon source/sink strengths of the Earth system. Finally, insights are offered for future satellite missions optimized for SIF retrievals.

GPP↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Miniature L-Band Radar Transceiver

A miniature L-band transceiver that operates at a carrier frequency of 1.25 GHz has been developed as part of a generic radar electronics module (REM) that would constitute one unit in an array of many identical units in a very-large-aperture phased-array antenna. NASA and the Department of Defense are considering the deployment of such antennas in outer space; the underlying principles of operation, and some of those of design, also are applicable on Earth. The large dimensions of the antennas make it advantageous to distribute radio-frequency electronic circuitry into elements of the arrays. The design of the REM is intended to implement the distribution. The design also reflects a requirement to minimize the size and weight of the circuitry in order to minimize the weight of any such antenna. Other requirements include making the transceiver robust and radiation-hard and minimizing power demand. Figure 1 depicts the functional blocks of the REM, including the L-band transceiver. The key functions of the REM include signal generation, frequency translation, amplification, detection, handling of data, and radar control and timing. An arbitrary-waveform generator that includes logic circuitry and a digital-to-analog converter (DAC) generates a linear-frequency-modulation chirp waveform. A frequency synthesizer produces local-oscillator signals used for frequency conversion and clock signals for the arbitrary-waveform generator, for a digitizer [that is, an analog-to-digital converter (ADC)], and for a control and timing unit. Digital functions include command, timing, telemetry, filtering, and high-rate framing and serialization of data for a high-speed scientific-data interface. The aforementioned digital implementation of filtering is a key feature of the REM architecture. Digital filters, in contradistinction to analog ones, provide consistent and temperature-independent performance, which is particularly important when REMs are distributed throughout a large array. Digital filtering also enables selection among multiple filter parameters as required for different radar operating modes. After digital filtering, data are decimated appropriately in order to minimize the data rate out of an antenna panel. The L-band transceiver (see Figure 2) includes a radio-frequency (RF)-to-baseband down-converter chain and an intermediate- frequency (IF)-to-RF up-converter chain. Transmit/receive (T/R) switches enable the use of a single feed to the antenna for both transmission and reception. The T/R switches also afford a built-in test capability by enabling injection of a calibration signal into the receiver chain. In order of decreasing priority, components of the transceiver were selected according to requirements of radiation hardness, then compactness, then low power. All of the RF components are radiation-hard. The noise figure (NF) was optimized to the extent that (1) a low-noise amplifier (LNA) (characterized by NF < 2 dB) was selected but (2) the receiver front-end T/R switches were selected for a high degree of isolation and acceptably low loss, regardless of the requirement to minimize noise.

McWatters, Dalia↗

Investigating Local Carrier Dynamics in PERC Patterned CdTe Solar Cells

Remarkable progress has been achieved in CdTe photovoltaics (PVs) to further improve cell performance while reducing manufacturing costs. Researchers optimized the front contact that leads the short-circuit current density (J sc ) over 31mA/cm 2 (e.g., (Zn, Mg)O buffer layer and/or alloying CdTe with Se). Reese et al. reported an open-circuit voltage (V oc ) over 1 V with group-V doped single crystal, showing the feasibility of increasing V oc in CdTe PV that is fixed to less than 900 mV in most cases. Recent studies suggested that the V oc improvement in polycrystalline CdTe PVs requires well-passivated back contact. One possible strategy is to use CdMgTe alloy (E g > 1.8 eV), where the band-gap offset (ΔE CB ≈ 0.2 eV) reflects minority carrier electrons, thereby decreasing surface recombination. Another strategy is to utilize a stable Al 2 O 3 layer as an electron reflector; experimental works confirmed the improved performance with a conformal Al 2 O 3 layer. In this configuration, the precise control of Al 2 O 3 (≈1 nm) over the entire CdTe layer is essential because the J sc greatly depends on the tunneling current. While promising, both CdMgTe and Al 2 O 3 passivation on CdTe introduce unfavorable valence band offset that blocks the hole transport. Kephart et al. proposed a patterned passixc vation layer (≈ 20 nm Al 2 O 3 ) with point contacts (≈ 3 μm in diameter) that extract hole carriers. This configuration is similar to the passive emitter and rear contact (PERC) design that has been extensively studied in Si PVs. While remarkably high carrier lifetime and photoluminescence (> 10 X) were measured, consistent improvement in V oc and efficiency in this CdTe PERC were not yet observed. At this time, it is unclear how the surface potential is distributed in the presence of patterned Al 2 O 3 reflectors and how this additional field impacts the PV performance for Cu-doped and group-V doped CdTe PERC devices. To tackle this challenge, we develop robust nanofabrication and characterization platform to study CdTe PERC devices consisting of a patterned Al 2 O 3 layer on CdSe( 1-x )Te x (Cu-doped, GrV-doped; x = 0 to 1; CST). First Solar supplies high-quality CST materials. The dark and light I-Vs under 1-sun illumination are extracted for a series of each set of devices. We perform quantitative and qualitative PV analysis for a series of Cu-doped and Gr-V doped PERC devices, showing notably different V oc changes for GrV-doped compared to Cu-doped PERC devices. This project attempts to produce individual contacts on single grains and grain boundaries to measure lateral transport. As a model system, we use a CdSe( 1-x )Te x film on glass prepared by a colossal grain growth (CGG) technique at National Renewable Research Laboratories (NREL). Our preliminary results confirm that intergranular transport is hindered by the electrical barrier formed near grain boundaries. The PERC fabrication and the lateral transport measurement platform developed in this project can easily be applied to other types of advanced CdSe( 1-x )Te x architectures to better understand local photocarrier transport, in turn, providing the fundamental knowledge to improve the performance of CdTe PVs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Develop a new integrated macro→micro←nano (MMN) multiscale modeling framework to optimize high strength aluminum alloys and processes for vehicle light-weighting​

Bending tests provide a means to study plane strain fracture performance of 6000 series aluminum alloys. Metrics from bending tests have been correlated with self-pierce riveting (SPR) performance of a high strength AA6111 automotive aluminum alloy in previous works. Using the ORNL HPC resources, this project developed an innovative macro→micro←nano (MMN) multiscale microstructure-based finite element (FE) code to further understanding of the relationship between microstructure and fracture properties of high-strength 6000-series alloys. This work started with microstructural characterization in both mesoscale and nanoscale and bending performance characterization of AA6111 HS2-T6 alloy at Ford, the MMN framework was applied to this alloy to simulate 3-point VDA bending. From the results of the macro-modeling of 3-point VDA bending, the critical region of fracture was identified, and the region geometry was used to construct the micro-model. The fracture criterion of micron-scale precipitates and aluminum matrix which contains submicron and nano particles (AL-SMP-NP) in the micro-model was calibrated and validated by comparing simulated and measured bending results. With the AL-SMP-NP fracture strain obtained, the fracture strain of Al-matrix containing nano particles (ALNP) will similarly be determined by a submicron scale-model using an edge-constrained FE modeling approach developed by Hu et al. With the ALNP fracture strain obtained, the fracture strain of Al-matrix containing no particles will similarly be determined by a nano scale-model using an edge-constrained FE modeling approach. After the MMN framework is built and fracture criterion calibrated, nano-model FE simulations with virtual microstructures was performed to obtain a reduced order model (ROM) of the fracture criterion of the ALNP as a function of volume fraction, size, and distribution of the nanoparticle. This nano→submicron→micro modeling part allows exploration of the influence of different material nanostructures from different process conditions on the bending properties within the multiscale bending simulation framework and the ROM of material bendability as a function of nanoparticle size and shape was established. This obtained reduced order model (ROM) could help guide the design and selection of materials to improve existing SPR process models that could replace trial-and-error rivet/die selection and help to design new rivet/die combinations capable of robustly joining new higher strength 6000 5 series alloys in automotive body structures. This would enable lightweighting of Ford vehicles leading to greater fuel efficiency and reduce manufacturing time and energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year-total equivalent system mass (ESM) relative to a reference case. Results are presented based on current assumptions for Scenario 12 and based on Monte Carlo simulations with assumed probability distributions for the high-impact mission variables. The calculated probability of no water or oxygen resupply from Monte Carlo simulations provides a quantitative measure of system robustness that can be used for cost/benefit analyses to identify leading architecture candidates. Areas of technology improvement that are likely to have a significant impact are also suggested.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Engineering Clostridium Tyrobutyricum for High Butanol Production through Induction Expression of Exogenous NADPH-Dependent HBD

Clostridium tyrobutyricum Δ cat 1:: adh E2 is a promising cell factory for butanol production because of its robustness, high butanol tolerance, and minimal butyrate production. However, excessive acetate and ethanol production remains a major bottleneck limiting its butanol yield. Coexpressing an exogenous hbd ( Ck ) encoding the NADPH-dependent 3-hydroxybutyryl-CoA dehydrogenase (HBD) from Clostridium kluyveri with adh E2 could increase the C4 carbon flux, resulting in increased butanol and decreased acetate and ethanol production. However, constitutively overexpressing hbd ( Ck ) in Δ cat 1:: adh E2 shows little improvement in butanol yield, productivity, and selectivity, which might be caused by redox imbalance and growth inhibition. To alleviate this problem, C. tyrobutyricum MΔ cat 1:: adh E2- Pbgal-hbd ( Ck ) with a dynamic expression of hbd ( Ck ) controlled by an inducible promoter was developed. In serum bottle fermentation at 37 °C, when the hbd ( Ck ) expression was induced at 12 h or in the early exponential phase, butanol production increased ∼20% in yield (from 0.22 to 0.27 g/g glucose), 87.5% in productivity (from 0.16 to 0.30 g/L·h), and 52% in selectivity (from 0.46 to 0.70 g/g total products) compared to the control strain without expressing any hbd(Ck), whereas hbd ( Ck ) expression induced at 0 or 24 h in MΔ cat 1:: adh E2-P bgal - hbd ( Ck ) or constitutively in MΔ cat 1:: adh E2-P cat 1- hbd ( Ck ) showed significantly lower butanol yield and productivity. At 25 °C, MΔ cat 1:: adh E2-P bgal - hbd ( Ck ) with 12 h induction produced the highest butanol titer of 23 g/L with 0.32 g/g yield, 0.16 g/L·h productivity, and 0.83 g/g product selectivity due to much reduced acetate formation. Subsequent scale-up to a stirred-tank bioreactor at 37 °C increased productivity to 0.39 g/L·h while also achieving high butanol titer (21.8 g/L), yield (0.30 g/g), and selectivity (0.67 g/g). The optimized induction timing resulted in a balanced NAD(P)H pool, effectively channeling substrates toward butanol biosynthesis. It was concluded that the timing for hbd ( Ck ) expression was critical as it affected glucose catabolism, cell growth, redox balance, and carbon flux distribution. These findings underscore the potential of dynamic metabolic regulation to overcome bottlenecks in biobutanol production, providing a scalable and economically viable bioprocess for industrial application.

Clostridium tyrobutyricum↗

Control of flow separation in airfoil/wing design applications

Existing aerodynamic design methods have generally concentrated on the optimization of airfoil or wing shapes to produce a minimum drag while satisfying some basic constraints such as lift, pitching moment, or thickness. Since the minimization of drag almost always precludes the existence of separated flow, the evaluation and validation of these design methods for their robustness and accuracy when separated flow is present has not been aggressively pursued. However, two new applications for these design tools may be expected to include separated flow and the issues of aerodynamic design with this feature must be addressed. The first application of the aerodynamic design tools is the design of airfoils or wings to provide an optimal performance over a wide range of flight conditions (multipoint design). While the definition of 'optimal performance' in the multipoint setting is currently being hashed out, it is recognized that given a wide enough range of flight conditions, it will not be possible to ensure a minimum drag constraint at all conditions, and in fact some amount of separated flow (presumably small) may have to be allowed at the more demanding flight conditions. Thus a multipoint design method must be tolerant of the existence of separated flow and may include some controls upon its extent. The second application is in the design of wings with extended high speed buffet boundaries of their flight envelopes. Buffet occurs on a wing when regions of flow separation have grown to the extent that their time varying pressures induce possible destructive effects upon the wing structure or adversely effect either the aircraft controllability or the passenger comfort. A conservative approach to the expansion of the buffet flight boundary is to simply expand the flight envelope of nonseparated flow under the assumption that buffet will also thus be alleviated. However, having the ability to design a wing with separated flow and thus to control the location, extent, and severity of the separated flow regions may allow aircraft manufacturers to gain an advantage in the early design stages of an aircraft, when configuration changes are relatively inexpensive to make. Continuing the work begun last year, an airfoil design package has been modified to provide some control over the existence and extent of flow separation. This package consists of a 2-D Navier-Stokes flow solver which is coupled to the CDISC (constrained direct/iterative surface curvature) design method. The first modification is a prediction method for determining whether separation is likely based solely upon a given pressure distribution. If separation is predicted but is undesirable, the new routines will modify the pressure distribution to alleviate the problem. This new pressure distribution is then used in the design method to generate a new aerodynamic shape. Since separation may be acceptable in some cases, particularly if the separation does not extend to the trailing edge, another added logic estimates the extent of separation based upon a correlation with calculated separated flow cases. If the flow behind a shock induced separation is not predicted to reattach before the trailing edge, the logic weakens the shock strength and otherwise alters the pressure distribution in order to promote reattachment. This later addition is as yet unreliable due to secondary separation effects, but additional work is being pursued to improve the method.

Gally, Thomas A.↗

Digital Twin User Guide for Chelan County Public Utility District

This user manual offers a comprehensive guide for developing a Digital twin (DT) of a Kaplan turbine at Chelan County Public Utility District (Chelan PUD) using neural networks. As variable renewable generation expands, hydropower units must operate with optimal efficiency and stability. For Kaplan machines, this flexibility is achieved through coordinated control of guide vane (wicket gates) opening and runner blade pitch, which amplifies the plant’s inherent nonlinear behavior and challenges traditional physics-only modeling. The efficiency of the Kaplan turbine varies with different combinations of the guide vans (wicket gate) opening and the blade angle. Each guide van opening and blade angle has a corresponding highest efficiency point, forming a cam relationship that represents the optimal combination.The discharge of a hydraulic turbine is controlled by the opening angle of the guide vans. Therefore, for each value of head, there is a certain guide van opening and blade angle that corresponds to the highest efficiency. For a given head, different combinations of the guide van opening and blade angle have different efficiencies. Therefore, coordinate cam curves are used to describe the relationship between the wicket gate opening and blade angle with different water head. To address these challenges, the manual details a data-driven modeling and learning workflow centered on structured neural networks. The approach is designed to forecast critical operational variables—discharge flow, net head, penstock (or scroll-case) pressure, and generator electrical outputs—by leveraging real-time inputs such as the generator power control setpoint, exciter field current and field voltage, together with hydromechanical commands (e.g., gate position and, when available, runner blade-pitch angle). The neural models are trained and validated on operational data from a Kaplan unit operated by Chelan PUD, demonstrating that the structured NN architecture can learn the coupled gate–blade–electrical dynamics. The result is a robust DT that improves situational awareness and supports data-informed decision-making for Chelan PUD’s Kaplan turbine operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bayesian optimization to design a novel x-ray shaping device

In radiation therapy, x-ray dose must be precisely sculpted to the tumor, while simultaneously avoiding surrounding organs at risk. This requires modulation of x-ray intensity in space and/or time. Typically, this is achieved using a multi leaf collimator (MLC) - a complex mechatronic device comprising over one hundred individually powered tungsten ‘leaves’ that move in or out of the radiation field as required. Here, an all-electronic x-ray collimation concept with no moving parts is presented, termed “SPHINX”: Scanning Pencil-beam High-speed Intensity-modulated X-ray source. SPHINX utilizes a spatially distributed bremsstrahlung target and collimator array in conjunction with magnetic scanning of a high energy electron beam to generate a plurality of small x-ray “beamlets.” A simulation framework was developed in Topas Monte Carlo incorporating a phase space electron source, transport through user defined magnetic fields, bremsstrahlung x-ray production, transport through a SPHINX collimator, and dose in water. This framework was completely parametric, meaning a simulation could be built and run for any supplied geometric parameters. This functionality was coupled with Bayesian optimization to find the best parameter set based on an objective function which included terms to maximize dose rate for a user defined beamlet width while constraining inter-channel cross talk and electron contamination. Designs for beamlet widths of 5, 7, and 10 mm 2 were generated. Each optimization was run for 300 iterations and took approximately 40 h on a 24-core computer. For the optimized 7-mm model, a simulation of all beamlets in water was carried out including a linear scanning magnet calibration simulation. Finally, a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism was developed and used to estimate dose rate under various conditions. The optimized 5–, 7–, and 10-mm models had beamlet widths of 5.1 , 7.2 , and 10.1 mm 2 and dose rates of 3574, 6351, and 10 015 Gy/C, respectively. The reduction in dose rate for smaller beamlet widths is a result of both increased collimation and source occlusion. For the simulation of all beamlets in water, the scanning magnet calibration reduced the offset between the collimator channels and beam centroids from 2.9 ±1.9 mm to 0.01 ±0.03 mm. A slight reduction in dose rate of approximately 2% per degree of scanning angle was observed. Based on a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism, SPHINX in conjunction with next-generation linear accelerators has the potential to achieve substantially higher dose rates than conventional MLC-based delivery, with delivery of an intensity modulated 100 x 100 mm 2 field achievable in 0.9 to 10.6 s depending on the beamlet widths used. Bayesian optimization was coupled with Monte Carlo modeling to generate SPHINX geometries for various beamlet widths. A complete Monte Carlo simulation for one of these designs was developed, including electron beam transport of all beamlets through scanning magnets, x-ray production and collimation, and dose in water. These results demonstrate that SPHINX is a promising candidate for sculpting radiation dose with no moving parts, and has the potential to vastly improve both the speed and robustness of radiotherapy delivery. A multi-beam SPHINX system may be a candidate for delivering magavoltage FLASH RT in humans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors

Modeling and Analysis of Stirling Power Convertors Luis A. Rodriguez1 Steven M. Geng, Terry V. Reid, Scott D. Wilson NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, 44135, USA NASA Glenn’s Thermal Energy Conversion Branch is supporting the development of the next generation free-piston Stirling power convertors. American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc. are the two firms under contract to develop the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC) and the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), respectively. To comprehend and forecast convertor performance, Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent were used to model the Stirling thermodynamic cycle, alternator electromagnetics, and piston and displacer dynamics. I. Introduction Stirling convertors are being developed by NASA as a potential steady source of electrical power for NASA’s future scientific space missions. Currently, NASA Glenn Research Center has two corporations under contract, American Superconductor (AMSC) and Sunpower Inc., for the development of the next generation of free-piston Stirling convertors for dynamic radioisotope power systems. AMSC is developing the Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC), which uses flexures to prevent side motion and rubbing of the piston. Similarly, Sunpower Inc, is developing the Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC). The SRSC uses gas bearings to prevent radial contact of the moving piston. As convertor development continues, it is increasingly important to understand and predict the interactions of components in the system, how they respond to one another, and how they perform as a response to changes in operating conditions. A suitable and enlightening way to demonstrate and foresee these interactions is with the use of accurate modeling software. Sage, ANSYS® Maxwell, and ANSYS® Fluent are the current modeling tools used by NASA to analytically determine convertor performance. Sage is a one-dimensional object-oriented commercial software package used for modeling and optimizing Stirling convertors for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS) and it is one of the most accurate Stirling convertor codes in use by NASA. This code is the successor to GLIMPS (Globally-Implicit Stirling Cycle Simulation) and GLOP (GLIMPS Optimization) software created by Gedeon Associates [1]. Model input parameters are typically material/gas type, component physical dimensions, temperatures, frequency, charge pressure, and number of time/space nodes. Sage is used to model both the FISC’s and SRSC’s Stirling cycle thermodynamics and piston/displacer dynamics. Performance maps were created and analyzed for both power systems to better understand the relationship between the following conditions: cold-end temperature, hot-end temperature, piston/displacer amplitudes, pressure drop, and thermal input power. The synergy between these conditions will help determine parameter sensitivity. ANSYS® Maxwell was used to create a three-dimensional (3-D) axisymmetric model for both FISC and SRSC alternators. The significant physical components included in each model are the magnets, magnet carrier, outer/inner laminations, and the coil. Inputs to the model are piston amplitude, piston frequency, alternator load, coil resistance, tuning capacitance, and specific material properties. The alternator models calculate terminal voltage, current, piston/current phase, voltage/current phase, coil inductance, terminal power and efficiency. The RI2 losses, core (hysteresis and eddy) losses, and magnet/can eddy losses are also a part of the final results. ANSYS® Fluent is used to build 3-D computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models to examine the Stirling cycle thermodynamics for both the FISC and SRSC systems. Three-dimensional Computer Aided Design (CAD) models were used to create the physical components of each convertor. Steady-state simulations were conducted for hardware testing, prediction of environmental losses during testing, and generation of radiation look-up tables. The model inputs to the aforementioned analysis are the material properties and boundary thermal conditions. The steady-state model calculates temperature and heat flow distributions. Transient 3-D calculations were also part of the CFD analysis. In this study a physically reduced version of the FISC is used to obtain a prediction of available engine power. For the gas bearing SRSC, the transient effort is used to obtain a prediction of bearing pad performance and its sensitivity to micro-channel geometric variation. The model inputs to the transient simulations are the piston amplitude, displacer amplitude, frequency, displacer/piston phase angle, dynamic deforming CFD grid, temperature boundary conditions, and user defined files describing motion profile of piston/displacer. The results of the model are temperature distributions, heat distributions, and PV power produced at pre-determined conditions.

Luis A Rodriguez↗

Microchannel-based Membrane-less Extraction of Li from Unconventional Lithium Sources & the Separation of REE

This final report provides an overview of the Project's entire duration, covering July 1, 2021 to December 31, 2023. It primarily focuses on the achievements, technological developments, and unique challenges the team faced while working on separating and extracting Lithium from produced waters. The project's primary aim was to create an integrated, high-throughput, membrane-less, and modular microfluidic platform that could extract Lithium from unconventional sources. We have successfully met all goals and milestones envisioned in the SOPO document. The most critical primary milestones, including the Go-No-Go milestone (refer to the Gantt chart in the Appendices), were successfully accomplished. We demonstrated phase separation (>90%) and extraction (>85%) performance in the MPSE using synthetic, and representative produced water composition feed at 50 ml/min total flow through MPSE 36. We have also performed a parametric study of the MPSE operations, beyond the scope of SOPO, exploring operating conditions of current and broader interest. The extended investigation of operational parameters is concurrent with our efforts to seek further development of the MPSE technology beyond the scope of the Project. Along these lines of development, we have made efforts to be responsive to DOE calls for technological developments of other types of resources (beyond PW) for the recovery of Critical Materials and higher TRL development (beyond TRL 4). During the work on this Project, we developed and implemented three innovative technical approaches that emerged from our efforts to successfully meet the Project milestones. The innovative & original technical approaches developed and implemented in this Project are now the contributions to process engineering that could be clearly credited to the Project. First, Convergent Design Approach is a comprehensive feedforward & feedback loop of four design phases: i) design for functionality, ii) design for manufacturing, iii) design for sustainability, and iv) design for market. Next was Process Intensification. A major aim of this Project was to create an innovative phase separation & extraction microscale-based technology for Li separation – thus the words microchannel-based in the Project title. A microscale-based technology is intrinsically in the center of the Process Intensification domain as defined by its unique principles. Therefore, Process Intensification was implicitly envisioned in the Project’s SOPO. Lastly, Time Scale Analysis is a novel tool for discovering the needs and directions of Process Intensification implementations in any process technology. This Project is fully credited for developing and implementing the three novel technical approaches mentioned above. These are general contributions to process engineering that emerged from this Project. Beyond the original SOPO scope, the OSU-U.Pitt research group utilized a Convergent Design methodology, integrating first-principles mathematical modeling with experimental validation on the Minimum Development Vehicle. By creating these Digital Twins, the team rapidly assessed manufacturing iterations to support TEA analysis. This framework further enabled the development of advanced Surface Modification Techniques, where hydrophobic and oleophobic coating strategies were optimized via Digital Twin tools and validated through rigorous 100-hour longevity testing. TEA Analysis: The closing efforts of this Project were focused on the TEA analysis. TEA analysis had two primary functions: i) enabling critical assessments of design variations withing 10 the Concurrent Design Approach, thus enabling evolution of the MPSE design to reach faster- better-cheaper alternatives; and ii) to create a bridge between the accomplishments of this Project and future projects of higher TRL, beyond TRL 6 level. It is important to note that the TEA model created in the Project stirred the technological solutions for the recovery of critical materials toward a vision of a very profitable modular plant that has unique zero-waste water discharge signature. More importantly, thanks to our experimental performance data and conservative assumptions, the TEA model predicts minimal technological and investment risks. Low cost of a modular unit of a nominal capacity of [1000 tons of Li 2 CO 3 /year] positions the MPSE based technology within the reach of community investors, thus offering a paradigm shift in the development of critical technologies. The project successfully navigated two primary challenges: solvent selection and manufacturing adaptation. Restricted by the SOPO to existing literature for lithium recovery, the team identified a critical need for a "material excellence program" to develop next-generation solvents, eventually concluding with a preliminary investigation into promising Ionic Liquids (ILs). Simultaneously, COVID-19 supply chain disruptions forced a pivot from traditional manufacturing to advanced additive methods at ATAMI-OSU. By transitioning from stainless steel to 3D-printed polymer substrates, the team achieved a transformative three-order-of- magnitude reduction in manufacturing costs and compressed prototyping timelines from several months to just two days. The MPSE technology offers significant energy, environmental, and economic advantages by overcoming the traditional bottlenecks of phase-separation hardware and contactor size. Unlike conventional mixer-settlers or membrane-based systems, MPSE operates without moving parts or fouling-prone membranes, achieving robust performance even with challenging, viscous, or particulate-heavy feeds. Key performance metrics include an energy intensity reduction of 5–50x (3–40 kJ/m 3 ) compared to incumbent technologies and a dramatic reduction of processing time to under 60 seconds, which drastically reduces the physical plant footprint. These technical efficiencies translate into superior economic outcomes; for a 100 t/year Li 2 CO 3 facility, implementing MPSE is projected to nearly halve contactor CAPEX (from $\$$6.08M to $\$$3.01M) and significantly increase the project's Net Present Value (NPV), derisking new investment and enabling distributed critical-mineral processing configurations. The commercialization of MPSE technology is being spearheaded by Vigsur Dynamics Inc., which has adopted a structured, parallel approach to technical and business development since its formation in January 2026. Following extensive customer discovery and engagement with the Oregon State University accelerator, Vigsur Dynamics is working to establish a business model that transitions from pilot demonstrations to modular hardware sales, ultimately aiming for a "build-own-operate" service strategy. Current technical milestones—including 100 hours of continuous operation, superior energy efficiency, and successful 6-unit modular scale-up— provide a foundation for this transition. Backed by ongoing IP licensing and a growing network of industrial and venture advisors, the company is actively de-risking the platform to replace conventional mixer-settler systems in the critical minerals market.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Challenges for and Pathways Toward Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries utilizing lithium metal anodes have the potential to enable batteries with a specific energy of >500 Wh/kg and an energy density of >1,500 Wh/L for thousands of cycles. When optimized they will improve the energy efficiency, operating temperature range, sustainability, and safety at a lower cost compared to projections for advanced Li-ion batteries. This improved performance is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and may enable future applications such as electric aviation. Expectations for solid-state batteries are high, there are significant materials and processing challenges that need to be overcome. Some of these challenges are well known; others are more subtle and are just becoming known. The challenges and their solutions must be clearly identified to realize high-energy solid-state Li metal batteries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds the majority of energy storage research and development, including solid state battery research. Web of Science publication analysis shows that worldwide DOE is second largest funder. Work on solid state batteries is distributed across different arms of DOE and is coordinated at headquarters to ensure a broad national portfolio for advanced batteries, including lithium batteries and solid-state battery devices. We note that university and national laboratory researchers in the US with a long-standing interest in solid state batteries is a small, integrated community with recognized impact for publications, patents and startup companies. The opportunity for this group to engage for research with international colleagues is growing, fostered by periodic bilateral meetings supported by DOE and by the recent joint US German research program for lithium battery interface studies. These are valuable opportunities to speed solid-state battery development. The ORNL led virtual workshop, overviewed here, confirms the community’s shared vision of the exciting advances, opportunities, and challenges. Further, we are seeing that this workshop has spawned several new informal collaborations and draft proposals. This encourages us to propose future discussion. On May 11, 2020, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hosted a 6-hour, on-line national workshop to discuss recent advances and most the prominent obstacles to realizing solid-state Li metal batteries. The workshop included more than 30+ experts from national laboratories, universities, and companies, all of whom have worked on solid-state batteries for multiple years. The participants shared recent advances, many not yet in print, illustrating that the community has gained significant new insights for solid-state Li battery materials over the last 5 years. In this report, the major outcomes of the workshop are organized to identify the gaps in our scientific knowledge for four core materials science areas: (1) Li metal anodes, (2) the solid electrolyte in contact with Li metal, (3) active cathode materials and solid-state composite cathodes, and (4) solid electrolytes. Illustrative examples and discussions are reported with the more comprehensive issues in the report. Discussion of additional challenges related to processing of solid-state battery materials and to the designs and architectures for mechanically robust, long-lived batteries received less attention due to time constraints. These are good themes for deeper discussion at a follow-on workshop, where a complete list of critical research topics can be identified.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Direct Air Capture of CO 2 and Delivery to Photobioreactors for Algal Biofuel Production (Final Report)

A mobile DAC system was designed and constructed to pair with photobioreactors growing algae for biofuel production. The DAC system was designed as a versatile research system, rather than a compact production unit. The system was constructed and mounted on a mobile skid to facilitate transportation to the algae production site. Within the DAC system, CO 2 was captured using amine-loaded monoliths that allow for high CO 2 uptake with low pressure drop. The CO 2 is collected using a Global Thermostat patented temperature/vacuum swing adsorption (TVSA) process. Amine sorbents and process conditions were optimized to produce 10 to >20 g CO 2 .h-1. The stability of the amine sorbents was also studied, with sorbent modifications made to improve stability to degradation by oxidation. An Algenol-developed Spirulina strain (Arthrospira platensis AB2293) was selected as the production cyanobacterial strain. AB2293 cultured was inoculum for outdoor production following PBR installation by Algenol. The PBR system was composed of three independent PBRs, with each PBR composed of four hanging bags internally recirculated by a liquid turnover pump. The PBRs were operated outdoors in Atlanta, GA, and integrated with the DAC system. Algae were grown with similar productivity using DAC-CO 2 as algae grown using pure CO 2 obtained commercially (Airgas). Throughout the experimental duration, no discoloration was observed, and cellular morphology was consistent between the two experimental treatments. An LCA including lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, full life cycle inventory of the Algenol system and the DAC system and integrated DAC+PBR system was developed. Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for capture of carbon dioxide using input from Global Thermostat and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Three scenarios for energy provision were evaluated: a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the electricity requirement, a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the process heat requirements, and a system without on-site power that procures the electricity from the grid. In all three cases, as expected, the major contributor to the emissions is the energy consumption associated with the desorption step of the DAC process. The LCA quantified the reduced potential energy and greenhouse gas emissions of heat and mass integration of DAC and Algenol compared to unintegrated DAC and Algenol systems. A life cycle assessment of the role of sorbent productivity and lifetime was also developed. The development of more robust, oxidation resistant DAC sorbents may enable small reductions in energy requirements and in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. NREL performed techno-economic analysis (TEA) to identify the integration scenario most likely to achieve a 15% cost reduction target versus the baseline. Heat and mass integration of DAC and the PBR is critical to minimizing the MFSP. The baseline case utilizes no heat and mass integration, and the DAC system provides 100% of the CO 2 required by the photobioreactors (20 tonnes/hr), operating for 12 hours/day capturing 40 tonnes CO 2 /operating hour. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of ethanol calculated from the baseline case was $10.68/gal ethanol. This corresponds with a targeted MFSP of $9.07/gal ethanol (or 15% reduction). This target was achieved by integration Option 2a with the greatest cost reduction of 17.8% (or $8.78/gal) and integration Option 2b with a cost reduction of 16.4% (or $8.93/gal). Reductions in MFSP are attributed to two primary process considerations: (a) CO 2 storage at night reduces the capital expenses associated with DAC (i.e., increasing on-stream time); and (b) distributed DAC scenarios (DAC-PBR integration Options 2a and 2b) make use of boiler and DAC CHP flue gas CO 2 (free). Direct air capture on-stream time was one of the largest contributors to MFSP reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗