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NASA NTRS1978

Collisional evolution of mass-distribution spectrum of planetesimals

The early growth of planetesimals by mutual direct collisions is numerically simulated with a Monte Carlo technique to show how planetesimals with specific mass and velocity distributions evolve into a full-size planet. Four types of collisions are taken into account: rebound, erosion, catastrophic break-up, and coagulation. It is shown that evolution of mass-distribution spectrum is expressed by an inverse power relation. It is also suggested that whether or not a planetesimal can survive catastrophic collision is primarily dependent on mean relative velocity and mechanical properties of planetesimals. It is necessary for the early growth of rocky (basaltic) materials that mean relative velocity be much smaller than 0.1 km/s. Otherwise it is necessary to introduce something like nucleating agents (such as iron bodies which have plastic properties at temperatures higher than 200 K) for the formation of terrestrial planets.

Matsui, T.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar wind sputtering effects in the atmospheres of Mars and Venus

It is found through an investigation, combining Monte Carlo simulations and analytical techniques, of the direct collisional interaction of an energetic particle flux with the neutral components of a planetary atmosphere, that solar wind sputtering could provide an important exospheric mass sink on both Mars and Venus under appropriate conditions. The computed rates of helium loss in the Venusian atmosphere and of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in the Martian atmosphere imply that sputtering would have a significant effect on the noble gas budget of Venus and dominate the chemical and photochemical loss processes of Mars. Because of diffusive separation of lighter elements and isotopes, and because the gravitational binding energy is proportional to the mass, the erosion process preferentially removes the lighter components of the atmosphere. Solar wind sputtering could therefore compete with other erosion mechanisms in generating substantial fractionation effects.

Watson, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

KSC Tech Transfer News, Volume 2, No. 2

This issue contains articles about: (1) the Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP) and the manager of the program, Alexis Hongamen, (2) New Technology Report (NTR) on a Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate the Likelihood of Direct Lightning Strikes, (3) Kennedy Space Center's Applied Physics Lab, (4) a virtual ruler that is used for many applications, (5) a portable device that finds low-level leaks, (6) a sun-shield, that supports in-space cryogenic propellant storage, (7) lunar dust modeling software, (8) space based monitoring of radiation damage to DNA, (9) the use of light-emitting diode (LED) arrays vegetable production system, (10) Dust Tolerant Intelligent Electrical Connection Systems, (11) Ice Detection Camera System Upgrade, (12) Repair Techniques for Composite Structures, (13) Cryogenic Orbital Testbed, and (14) copyright protection.

Makufka, David↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2021

Observation of Low-Energy Proton Direct Ionization in a 72-Layer 3D NAND Flash Memory

Single-event upsets are observed in a 72-layer 3D NAND flash memory operated in single-level cell mode after low-energy proton (500 keV-1.2 MeV) and heavy ion irradiation. The layer-by-layer error count is analyzed to visualize the stopping of low energy protons within the memory stack, and Monte Carlo simulations are correlated with the experimental data. Direct ionization by low-energy protons is identified by three-dimensional data analysis and the energy dependence of device sensitive cross-section. Heavy ion data is also presented for comparison.

Direct ionization↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spectral solar irradiance on inclined surfaces: A fast Monte Carlo approach

Estimating spectral plane-of-array (POA) solar irradiance on inclined surfaces is an important step in the design and performance evaluation of both photovoltaic and concentrated solar plants. This work introduces a fast, line-by-line spectral, Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer model approach to simulate anisotropic distributions of shortwave radiation through the atmosphere as photon bundles impinge on inclined surfaces. This fast Monte Carlo approach reproduces the angular distribution of solar irradiance without the undesirable effects of spatial discretization and thus computes detailed POA irradiance values on surfaces at any orientation and also when surfaces are subjected to the anisotropic ground and atmospheric scattering. Polarization effects are also easily incorporated into this approach that can be considered as direct numerical simulation of the physics involved. Here, we compare our Monte Carlo radiative transfer model with the most widely used empirical transposition model, Perez4, under various conditions. The results show that the Perez4 model reproduces the more detailed Monte Carlo simulations with less than 10% deviation under clear skies for all relevant surface tilt and azimuth angles. When optically thin clouds are present, observed deviations are larger, especially when the receiving surface is strongly tilted. Deviations are also observed for large azimuth angle differences between the receiving surface and the solar position. When optically thick clouds are present, the two models agree within 15% deviation for nearly all surface orientation and tilt angles. The overall deviations are smaller when compared with cases for optically thin clouds. The Perez4 model performs very well (6.0% deviation) in comparison with the detailed MC simulations for all cases, thus validating its widespread use for practical solar applications. When detailed atmospheric profiles and cloud optical properties are available, the proposed fast Monte Carlo radiative model reproduces accurate spectral and angular POA irradiance levels for various atmospheric and cloud cover conditions, surface orientations, and different surface and ground properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1984

Pseudo-Random Number Generators

Package features comprehensive selection of probabilistic distributions. Monte Carlo simulations resorted to whenever systems studied not amenable to deterministic analyses or when direct experimentation not feasible. Random numbers having certain specified distribution characteristic integral part of simulations. Package consists of collector of "pseudorandom" number generators for use in Monte Carlo simulations.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA

Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.

Korner, Stephan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

NASA NTRS1985

Some evidence for high energy gamma-ray sources at large galactic latitudes

The arrival directions of the gamma-quanta with energies of about 10 to 15th power eV which were registrated by Tien Shan experiment were compared with COS-B observations. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulations it was shown with low probability that arrival directions of Tien Shan gamma-quanta initiated showers are not uniformly distributed. It is shown that in the region not seen by COS-B mission, the high energy gamma-ray sources should be located at position of 90 deg. 1 sup 11 130 deg and b sup 11 or = 50 deg. The integral intensity of these sources should be I ( 10 to the 15th power eV) = 4.8 + or - 1.7).10 to the 13th power/sq cm/s/str. There is no coincidence between the gamma-quanta registrated by Tien Shan experiment with Geminga intense COS-B gamma source. So it is shown that the integral photon spectrum of Geminga (I(e) approx E sup-Beta, where Beta = 0.8 for E 1 GeV) becomes steeper (Beta 1.2) in high energy region with probability 99.9.%.

Karakula, S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo simulation of particle acceleration at astrophysical shocks

A Monte Carlo code was developed for the simulation of particle acceleration at astrophysical shocks. The code is implemented in Turbo Pascal on a PC. It is modularized and structured in such a way that modification and maintenance are relatively painless. Monte Carlo simulations of particle acceleration at shocks follow the trajectories of individual particles as they scatter repeatedly across the shock front, gaining energy with each crossing. The particles are assumed to scatter from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence on both sides of the shock. A scattering law is used which is related to the assumed form of the turbulence, and the particle and shock parameters. High energy cosmic ray spectra derived from Monte Carlo simulations have observed power law behavior just as the spectra derived from analytic calculations based on a diffusion equation. This high energy behavior is not sensitive to the scattering law used. In contrast with Monte Carlo calculations diffusive calculations rely on the initial injection of supra-thermal particles into the shock environment. Monte Carlo simulations are the only known way to describe the extraction of particles directly from the thermal pool. This was the triumph of the Monte Carlo approach. The question of acceleration efficiency is an important one in the shock acceleration game. The efficiency of shock waves efficient to account for the observed flux of high energy galactic cosmic rays was examined. The efficiency of the acceleration process depends on the thermal particle pick-up and hence the low energy scattering in detail. One of the goals is the self-consistent derivation of the accelerated particle spectra and the MHD turbulence spectra. Presumably the upstream turbulence, which scatters the particles so they can be accelerated, is excited by the streaming accelerated particles and the needed downstream turbulence is convected from the upstream region. The present code is to be modified to include a better description of particle scattering (pitch-angle instead of hard-sphere) and as iterative procedure for treating the self-excitation of the MHD turbulence.

Campbell, Roy K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

PASSAT: particle accelerator helioScopes for Slim Axion-like-particle deTection

We propose a novel method to search for axion-like particles (ALPs) at particle accelerator experiments. ALPs produced at the target via the Primakoff effect subsequently enter a region with a magnetic field, where they are converted to photons that are then detected. Dubbed Particle Accelerator helioScopes for Slim Axion-like-particle deTection (PASSAT), our proposal uses the principle of the axion helioscope but replaces ALPs produced in the Sun with those produced in a target material. Since we rely on ALP-photon conversions , our proposal probes light (slim) ALPs that are otherwise inaccessible to laboratory-based experiments which rely on ALP decay, and complements astrophysical probes that are more model-dependent. As a first application, we reinterpret existing data from the NOMAD experiment in light of PASSAT, and constrain the parameter space for ALPs lighter than $$\sim 100~\mathrm{eV}$$ ~ 100 eV and ALP-photon coupling larger than $$\sim 10^{-4}~\mathrm{GeV}^{-1}$$ ~ 10 - 4 GeV - 1 . As benchmarks of feasible low-cost experiments improving over the NOMAD limits, we study the possibility of re-using the magnets of the CAST and the proposed BabyIAXO experiments and placing them at the proposed BDF facility at CERN, together with some new detectors. We find that these realizations of PASSAT allow for a direct probe of the parameter space for ALPs lighter than $$\sim 100~\mathrm{eV}$$ ~ 100 eV and ALP-photon coupling larger than $$\sim 4\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{GeV}^{-1}$$ ~ 4 × 10 - 6 GeV - 1 , which are regions that have not been probed yet by experiments with laboratory-produced ALPs. In contrast to other proposals aiming at detecting single or two-photon only events in hadronic beam dump environments, that rely heavily on Monte Carlo simulations, the background in our proposal can be directly measured in-situ , its suppression optimized, and the irreducible background statistically subtracted. Sensitivity evaluations with other beams will be the subject of a future paper. The measurements suggested in this paper represent an additional physics case for the BDF at CERN beyond those already proposed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic simulation of the human factor in structural reliability

Many structural failures have occasionally been attributed to human factors in engineering design, analyses maintenance, and fabrication processes. Every facet of the engineering process is heavily governed by human factors and the degree of uncertainty associated with them. Factors such as societal, physical, professional, psychological, and many others introduce uncertainties that significantly influence the reliability of human performance. Quantifying human factors and associated uncertainties in structural reliability require: (1) identification of the fundamental factors that influence human performance, and (2) models to describe the interaction of these factors. An approach is being developed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the human performance. This approach consists of a multi factor model in conjunction with direct Monte-Carlo simulation.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geometric control of emergent antiferromagnetic order in coupled artificial spin ices

Artificial spin ices (ASIs) composed of coupled nanomagnets offer the possibility to create designer geometrical frustration and manipulate inter-nanomagnet interactions. In particular, by using a dimer motif consisting of two strongly coupled single-domain nano magnets as a building block, we can control and realize intriguing antiferromagnetic physical states in which the magnetic charge is not conserved. Here we create a dimer kagome ASI system within which the antiferromagnetic order is controlled by tuning lattice geometry. Different disordered antiferromagnetic phases and the inter-nanomagnet interactions are visualized directly in demagnetized lattices with different lattice parameters. Monte Carlo simulations establish that the collective ground state consists of disordered antiferromagnetic dimers across the lattice when the intra-dimer interaction is dominant. However, for lattices governed by intra-triad-unit interactions, the ground state exhibits a longrange spin-ordered state in which the vertex magnetic charge is uniform across all triads.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1994

Correlated noise in the COBE DMR sky maps

The Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite Differential Radiometer (COBE DMR) sky maps contain low-level correlated noise. We obtain estimates of the amplitude and pattern of the correlated noise from three techniques: angular averages of the covariance matrix, Monte Carlo simulations of two-point correlation functions and direct analysis of the DMR maps. The results from the three methods are mutually consistent. The noise covariance matrix of a DMR sky maps is diagonal to an accuracy of better than 1%. For a given sky pixel, the dominant noise covariance occure with the ring of pixels at an angular separation of 60 deg due to the 60 deg separation of the DMR horns. The mean covariance at 60 deg is 0.45%((sup +0.18)(sub -0.14)) of the mean variance. Additionally, the variance in a given pixel is 0.7% greater than would be expected from a single beam experiment with the same noise properties. Autocorrelation functions suffer from a approximately 1.5 sigma positive bias at 60 deg while cross-correlations have no bias. Published COBE DMR results are not significantly affected by correlated noise.

Lineweaver, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Orbit Determination Sensitivity Analysis for the Europa Multiple Flyby Mission Concept

This paper details the results of parametric variations on the notional Europa Mission Concept tour navigation strategy on orbit determination delivery and knowledge errors and the associated statistical ∆V consumption. Approach maneuver placement at encounter minus two and a half days and at encounter minus three and a half days is compared to the reference encounter minus three days location as well as variations to the data cutoff for approach maneuver design, which is baselined one day prior to maneuver execution. An execution error model with fixed and proportional components assigned to the magnitude and pointing directions is applied to each maneuver in a Monte Carlo simulation. Variations on the fixed and proportional contributions to both component errors are simulated and analyzed to show the effect of varying thruster characterization levels. The effects of varying levels of a priori satellite ephemeris errors are also characterized in this study.

Boone, Dylan R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model for radial dependence of frequency distributions for energy imparted in nanometer volumes from HZE particles

This paper develops a deterministic model of frequency distributions for energy imparted (total energy deposition) in small volumes similar to DNA molecules from high-energy ions of interest for space radiation protection and cancer therapy. Frequency distributions for energy imparted are useful for considering radiation quality and for modeling biological damage produced by ionizing radiation. For high-energy ions, secondary electron (delta-ray) tracks originating from a primary ion track make dominant contributions to energy deposition events in small volumes. Our method uses the distribution of electrons produced about an ion's path and incorporates results from Monte Carlo simulation of electron tracks to predict frequency distributions for ions, including their dependence on radial distance. The contribution from primary ion events is treated using an impact parameter formalism of spatially restricted linear energy transfer (LET) and energy-transfer straggling. We validate our model by comparing it directly to results from Monte Carlo simulations for proton and alpha-particle tracks. We show for the first time frequency distributions of energy imparted in DNA structures by several high-energy ions such as cosmic-ray iron ions. Our comparison with results from Monte Carlo simulations at low energies indicates the accuracy of the method.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Investigation of Parallel Programming Techniques Applied to Monte Carlo Simulations for Post-Flight Reconstruction of Spacecraft Trajectory

Parallelizing software to execute on multi-core central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) can be challenging. For some fields outside of Computer Science, this transition comes with new issues. For example, memory limitations can require modifications to code not initially developed to run on GPUs. This work applies the Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) and Open Accelerators (OpenACC) directive-based parallelization strategies on a Monte Carlo simulation approach for trajectory reconstruction enabling it to run on multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Large matrix operations are the most common use of GPUs, which are not present in this algorithm; however, the natural parallelism of independent trajectories in Monte Carlo simulations is exploited. Benchmarking data are presented comparing execution times of the software for single-thread CPUs, multi-thread CPUs with OpenMP, and multi-thread GPUs using OpenACC. These data were collected using nodes with Intel® Xeon® E5-2670 (Sandy Bridge) CPUs enhanced with NVIDIA® Tesla® K40 GPUs on the Pleiades Supercomputer cluster at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center (ARC) and a local Intel® Xeon Phi™ node at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC).

Williams, R. Anthony↗