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At least 469 records · Page 26

SECARB-USA: Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes (Task 2.1.b)

A team of SECARB storage experts examined 63 formations at 39 sites that were selected to represent the range of diversity of newly assessed, as well as well-advanced, storage prospects in the SECARB region. We inventoried the data needs triggered by the requirements to obtain a Class VI UIC storage permit, the data needs that results from the requirement to create geocellular fluid flow models to support that permit, and by pragmatic and best practice inputs such as public acceptance, regulatory readiness, and pore space leasing. We anchored both the needs inventory and the processes for and cost of meeting the needs with data from 9 sites in in the SECARB area that have advanced far in characterization. Results show that the total cost of characterization prior to obtaining a permit is convergent, because the permit and modeling requirements drive projects to obtain the same types of data for all cases. The high cost data that control cost are 1) drilling, coring, core-testing, logging, sampling and testing a characterization well and 2) collection of a 3-D seismic survey to map reservoir and confining system properties over the area of the plume or the area of elevated pressure. In 5 of our case study sites we determined that one or both of these costs could be avoided because the needs are met by available data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maximized Information Gain of Next Generation Pulsed Power Using Optimized Design of Z-Machine Experiments

This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Innovations Driven by Advanced Characterization to Strategize Critical Mineral Production and Beneficial Reuse from Fossil Energy Waste

Critical minerals (CM), such as rare earth elements (REE), cobalt, nickel, and lithium, have important uses in modern electronics and advanced manufacturing, yet are vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. Relatively abundant and readily available fossil energy (FE) wastes, such as coal combustion ash, acid mine drainage (AMD) and treatment solids (AMD solids), and Oil and Gas (O&G) drilling wastes (drill cuttings and produced waters) are under consideration as CM feedstocks. The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has studied CM resources for various FE wastes as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s mission of bolstering the domestic CM supply, and makes the data available to the public on EDX at sites such as the NEWTS group. Advanced characterization utilizing synchrotron x-ray techniques coupled with laboratory extractions has been performed to identify CM hosting phases in these FE wastes to inform CM recoverability mechanisms. Novel methods to selectively recover CMs while co-producing other valuable byproducts have been developed. Successful examples discussed here include: (1) The identification of REE/Co/Ni/Sc binding and hosting phases in select FE waste (coal combustion ash and AMD solids), resulting in the development of a patented CM step-extraction process, (2) coupled production of functional sorbents from these extraction wastes and for CM recovery. A pilot-scale testing to evaluate the patent’s technical feasibility for extracting REE from coal ash on a barrel scale has been successfully performed. Additionally, (3) evaluation and measurements of brine geochemistry from U.S. O&G produced waters has informed a high Li recovery potential from Marcellus Shale produced water. NETL researchers have been developing tailored pre-treatment processes, an innovative and highly durable lithium sorbent, and geochemical model guided precipitation to accelerate Li production from the Marcellus Shale produced waters. These innovations driven by characterization are integral for maximizing and advancing the potential for CM recovery while offsetting the cost and environmental footprint for FE waste management.

critical mineral processing↗

Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b

We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regional Feedstock Partnership Biomass Quality Assessment Final Report

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) developed the Billion-Ton Vision to enable production of one-billion tons of sustainable, reliable biomass for the bioenergy industry by 2030 (Perlack et al., 2005). The Sun Grant Regional Feedstock Partnership (RFP) was organized to fill information gaps and validate biomass yield assumptions related to the Billion-Ton Study (Owens, 2018; Owens, Karlen, and Lacey, 2016). Along with the more than 130 scientific publications generated from these studies, yield and sustainability data from the RFP field trials not only validated the Billion-Ton estimates, but were critical in developing both the U.S. Billion-Ton Update report in 2011 and the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (DOE, 2011; 2016). The intention of this biomass quality assessment report is to build on these initial successes from the RFP field trials by focusing on variability in biomass quality data necessary to evaluate conversion performance. This report contains a summary of chemical quality results from samples collected as part of the RFP field trials. This report focuses on assessment of the impact of experimental agronomic designs on biomass properties followed by analyses of the impact of environmental and production variables on biomass properties. Datasets include species and other genetic variables, fertilizer treatments, harvest information, and yield, as well as other publicly available data such as precipitation, temperature, soil properties, and drought. The key outcomes from this chemical quality focused assessment have included: • Complete evaluation of the impacts of agronomic designs, genetics, and environmental conditions on chemical properties for Miscanthus, switchgrass, sorghum, energycane, mixed perennial grasses, and shrub willow short-rotation feedstocks • Over 30 peer review publications and technical reports focused on variability in quality data • Development of spatial and temporal environmental quality prediction maps for Miscanthus and switchgrass feedstocks allowing for comprehensive evaluation of variability in feedstock chemical quality across U.S. regions and over multiple harvest years

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Recent Progress on Surface Water Quality Models Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

Surface waterbodies are heavily exposed to pollutants caused by natural disasters and human activities. Empowering sensor technologies in water quality monitoring, sufficient measurements have become available to develop machine learning (ML) models. Numerous ML models have quickly been adopted to predict water quality indicators in various surface waterbodies. This paper reviews 78 recent articles from 2022 to October 2024, categorizing water quality models utilizing ML into three groups: Point-to-Point (P2P), which estimates the current target value based on other measurements at the same time point; Sequence-to-Point (S2P), which utilizes previous time series data to predict the target value at one time point ahead; and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S), which uses previous time series data to forecast sequential target values in the future. The ML models used in each group are classified and compared according to water quality indicators, data availability, and model performance. Widely used strategies for improving performance, including feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and transfer learning, are recognized and described to enhance model effectiveness. The interpretability limitations of ML applications are discussed. This review provides a perspective on emerging ML for surface water quality models.

machine learning (ML)↗

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

AbstractBayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) has emerged as a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios by integrating Bayesian inference with linlog rate laws. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCCs), and concentration control coefficients (CCCs) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of BMCA, guiding its application in metabolic engineering and emphasizing the need for methodological refinements.Author summaryUnderstanding how enzymes control metabolic pathways is crucial for optimizing biomanufacturing and synthetic biology applications. Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising computational method that integrates Bayesian inference with metabolic control analysis to estimate key control parameters, even in cases with limited experimental data. However, the accuracy and limitations of BMCA remain unclear. In this study, we systematically evaluate BMCA using three synthetic metabolic networks to determine how different types of physiological data impact its predictive performance. We find that BMCA requires flux and enzyme concentration data for accurate predictions, while external metabolite concentrations contribute little. Additionally, BMCA fails to predict elasticity values beyond a magnitude of 1.5 and reliably infer allosteric regulation, even when strong regulatory interactions exist. In addition, BMCA does not accurately rank metabolic control points, which may limit its utility in identifying key enzymes in engineered pathways. Our work provides practical insights into when and how BMCA can be applied, guiding future research in metabolic modeling and control analysis.

Shin, Janis (ORCID:0000000216572455)↗

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Rotating Detonation Combustion for Gas Turbines: Modeling and System Synthesis to Exceed 65% Efficiency Goal (Phase II)

As of May 2019, all RDE test hardware and test operations were completed for this program. Over 700 hot fire tests were conducted at 4 facilities with 7 RDE assemblies, with the data available for future analysis. In particular, measured static and dynamic pressure and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provided basis for pressure gain combustion (PGC) analysis of the Engineering Scale RDE. It was demonstrated via measurements and CFD that a carefully designed diffuser can recover some total pressure of the highly oscillatory RDE exhaust. In general, the isolator/injector is largest contributor of pressure losses; however a low loss design was demonstrated that improves significantly on previous natural-gas/air RDEs. Also, a tailored injector and mixing technique was demonstrated that allowed NG-air RDE operation with overall equivalence ratio of less than 0.6. CFD models by AR, the UofM and Purdue University were extensively used throughout the program to refine diffuser design for improved pressure recovery, to simulate injection and mixing, to estimate turbine interaction, to estimate combustor pressure gain anchored with test data and to provide input to other design and analytical tasks. CFD analyses were completed for many of the configurations tested at Purdue with the 13.4” RDE including the shark fin and low area ratio isolators. Results were compared favorably to available hot fire test particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements and wave speeds. The results of these CFD analyses suggest a modest pressure gain of 33% with a sufficiently low area ratio isolator. A thermodynamic power plant system model was set up which utilizes an RDE combustor. The performance of the RDE combustor module was scaled based on measurements from the Engineering Scale RDE tests with low loss injector and tailored fuel flow. This combined model indicates potential for significant plant efficiency improvement. The successful tailored fuel injection test result with lower than .6 equivalence ratio has implication that a power plant can use a RDE combustor configuration where all the air flows through the combustion zone thereby not requiring a bypass mixer. In this configuration, the results of the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant system indicate net efficiency of 66.4%.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Low-energy 17 O(𝑛,𝛾)⁢ 18 O reaction within the microscopic potential model and its role for the weak 𝑟 process

The neutron radiative capture reaction 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O plays a pivotal role in both nuclear structure studies and astrophysical nucleosynthesis, particularly in the formation of elements during hydrostatic and explosive stellar environments. We calculated the 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O cross section within the Skyrme Hartree-Fock potential model and analyzed electric dipole 𝐸⁢1 transitions to both positive- and negative-parity states below the α-decay threshold in 18 O. Our cross sections are significantly different from the data available in commonly used libraries. We further investigate the impact of the new calculated cross section on weak 𝑟-process nucleosynthesis using large-scale reaction network calculations across a wide range of electron fractions and entropies. Our results show that the 17 O ⁡(𝑛,𝛾) ⁢18 O reaction rate significantly influences the production of first 𝑟-process peak elements, such as strontium, under specific astrophysical conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate nuclear data for light isotopes in modeling heavy-element synthesis and provides updated reaction rates for future nucleosynthesis simulations.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

A self-supervised workflow for particle picking in cryo-EM

High-resolution single-particle cryo-EM data analysis relies on accurate particle picking. To facilitate the particle picking process, a self-supervised workflow has been developed. This includes an iterative strategy, which uses a 2D class average to improve training particles, and a progressively improved convolutional neural network for particle picking. To automate the selection of particles, a threshold is defined (%/Res) using the ratio of percentage class distribution and resolution as a cutoff. This workflow has been tested using six publicly available data sets with different particle sizes and shapes, and can automatically pick particles with minimal user input. The picked particles support high-resolution reconstructions at 3.0 Å or better. This workflow is a step towards automated single-particle cryo-EM data analysis at the stage of particle picking. It may be used in conjunction with commonly used single-particle analysis packages such as Relion , cryoSPARC , cisTEM , SPHIRE and EMAN2 .

2D class averages↗

Risk-based System Upgrade Planning for AOT-IC [Capstone Project]

The Accelerator Operations and Technology Instrumentation and Controls Group (AOT IC) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has established a comprehensive risk-based system upgrade planning strategy which has been utilized as a tool to prioritize system upgrade projects for the past several years. A challenge with the current system is that the group often lacks the data to quantify the probability and impact of system failures, so the group often relies instead on qualitative risk assessments as well as evaluations of a potential upgrade project’s alignment with group strategy and vision to prioritize projects. A proposed framework to enable quantitative risk probability and impact assessments has been developed and tested on three pilot systems chosen to broadly represent the types and conditions of equipment used by the group. The proposed framework incorporates availability data gathered from the LANSCE control room logbooks and the LANSCE work control system, as well as a system health evaluation which is conducted from a variety of resources to assess the probability of equipment failure. The impact of system failure is viewed from the perspective of impact on mission and schedule, where spares status, system documentation status, and the functional distribution of deployed systems are used to quantify these impacts.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Learning together: Towards foundation models for machine learning interatomic potentials with meta-learning

Abstract The development of machine learning models has led to an abundance of datasets containing quantum mechanical (QM) calculations for molecular and material systems. However, traditional training methods for machine learning models are unable to leverage the plethora of data available as they require that each dataset be generated using the same QM method. Taking machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) as an example, we show that meta-learning techniques, a recent advancement from the machine learning community, can be used to fit multiple levels of QM theory in the same training process. Meta-learning changes the training procedure to learn a representation that can be easily re-trained to new tasks with small amounts of data. We then demonstrate that meta-learning enables simultaneously training to multiple large organic molecule datasets. As a proof of concept, we examine the performance of a MLIP refit to a small drug-like molecule and show that pre-training potentials to multiple levels of theory with meta-learning improves performance. This difference in performance can be seen both in the reduced error and in the improved smoothness of the potential energy surface produced. We therefore show that meta-learning can utilize existing datasets with inconsistent QM levels of theory to produce models that are better at specializing to new datasets. This opens new routes for creating pre-trained, foundation models for interatomic potentials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cosmological preference for a negative neutrino mass

The most precise determination of the sum of neutrino masses from cosmological data, derived from analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic acoustic oscillations (BAO) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), favors a value below the minimum inferred from neutrino flavor oscillation experiments. We explore which data is most responsible of this puzzling aspect of the current constraints on neutrino mass and whether it is related to other anomalies in cosmology. We demonstrate conclusively that the preference for negative neutrino masses is a consequence of larger than expected lensing of the CMB in both the two- and four-point lensing statistics. Furthermore, we show that this preference is robust to changes in likelihoods of the BAO and CMB optical depth analyses given the available data. We then show that this excess clustering is not easily explained by changes to the expansion history and is likely distinct from the preference for for dynamical dark energy in DESI BAO data. Finally, we discuss how future data may impact these results, including an analysis of Planck CMB with mock DESI 5-year data. Here, we conclude that the negative neutrino mass preference is likely to persist even as more cosmological data is collected in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

InSPIRE 2.0 (Final Technical Report)

Co-locating solar projects and agriculture can provide mutual benefits to local farmers (e.g., dual revenue streams, increased yields from pollinator services, irrigation reductions) and to the solar projects (e.g., reduced timeline/costs for installation and O&M, expanded market, increased PV efficiency from a cooler, vegetated microclimate). While prior work sought to demonstrate the feasibility of agricultural co-location (or "agrivoltaic") opportunities, there is a fundamental gap in data available to developers, landowners, and state agencies that prevents widespread deployment of these mutually beneficial practices. This project addressed this gap by (1) establishing a stakeholder research working group composed of multi-sector industry leaders and academics to provide guidance and assist with outreach; (2) undertaking targeted field-based research projects evaluating solar and agriculture co-location tradeoffs; (3) conducting analysis and modeling studies that complement the field-based research; and (4) developing a data portal to consolidate all data on this topic in one location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗