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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape

Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulic redistribution by deeply rooted grasses and its ecohydrologic implications in the southern Great Plains of North America

Perennial bioenergy crops with deep (>1 m) rooting systems, such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), are hypothesized to increase carbon storage in deep soil. Deeply rooted plants may also affect soil hydrology by accessing deep soil water for transpiration, which can affect soil water content and infiltration in deep soil layers, thereby affecting groundwater recharge. Using stable H and O isotope (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) and 3 H values, we studied the soil water conditions at 20–30 cm intervals to depths of 2.4–3.6 m in paired fields of switchgrass and shallow rooted crops at three sites in the southern Great Plains of North America. We found that soil under switchgrass had consistently higher soil water content than nearby soil under shallow-rooted annual crops by a margin of 15%–100%. Soil water content and isotopic depth profiles indicated that hydraulic redistribution of deep soil water by switchgrass roots explained these observed soil water differences. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of hydraulic redistribution in deeply rooted grasses, and complement earlier observations of dynamic soil water fluxes under shallow-rooted grasses. Hydraulic redistribution by switchgrass may be a strategy for drought avoidance, wherein the plant may actively prevent water limitation. Furthermore, this raises the possibility that deeply rooted grasses may be used to passively subsidize soil water to more shallow-rooted species in inter-cropping arrangements.

3H↗
DOE OSTI2022

Finding Promising Candidates for Wet Growing Conditions: The Effect of Two Row Spacings on Biomass Production of Four Bioenergy Prairie Cordgrass Populations in a Wet Marginal Land

Demand for energy and the environmental consequences associated with fossil fuel emissions has created a need for alternative energy sources. To avoid conflict over the conversion of existing agricultural land from food production to fuel production, bioenergy crops could instead be cultivated on marginal land. Here, this study compared the performances, biomass yield, tiller density, and lignocellulosic bioenergy feedstock composition of four prairie cordgrass populations with two-row spacings cultivated on a waterlog-prone marginal land, as well as three other bioenergy candidate crops used as controls: big bluestem, M. × giganteus , and switchgrass. Across all populations and spacings, annual biomass yield of prairie cordgrass was 13 Mg ha −1 . Row spacing had significant impacts on prairie cordgrass productivity, with higher biomass yields observed in the 45 cm spacing than in the 90 cm spacing. Feedstock composition (cellulose, hemicellulose, ADL, and ash concentration) was not influenced by row spacing and did not deviate from expected values for growth on agricultural lands. However, biomass yields of the control species M . × giganteus and switchgrass planted in 45 cm spacing were higher than the prairie cordgrass. Our results provide evidence that prairie cordgrass could be a good energy crop with comparable biomass yield production to the energy crops M . × giganteus and switchgrass on waterlogged marginal land.

Bioenergy crops↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil carbon change in intensive agriculture after 25 years of conservation management

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) are strongly affected by land management but few long-term comparative studies have surveyed changes throughout the whole soil profile. We quantified 25-year SOC and SON changes to 1 m in 10 replicate ecosystems at an Upper Midwest, USA site. We compared four annual cropping systems in maize (Zea mays)-soybean (Glycine max)-winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) rotations, each managed differently (Conventional, No-till, Reduced input, and Biologically based); in three managed perennial systems (hybrid Poplar (Populus × euramericana), Alfalfa (Medicago sativa), and Conifer (Pinus spp.); and in three successional systems (Early, Mid- and Late succession undergoing a gradual change in species composition and structure over time). Both Reduced input and Biologically based systems included winter cover crops. Neither SOC nor SON changed significantly in the Conventional or Late successional systems over 25 years. All other systems gained SOC and SON to different degrees. SOC accrual was fastest in the Early successional system (0.8 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ) followed by Alfalfa and Conifer (avg. 0.7 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), Poplar, Reduced input, and Biologically based systems (avg. 0.4 ± 0.1 Mg C ha –1 y –1 ), and Mid-successional and No-till systems (0.3 and 0.2 Mg C ha –1 y –1 , respectively). Over the most recent 12 years, rates of SOC accrual slowed in all systems except Reduced input and Mid-successional. There was no evidence of SOC loss at depth in any system, including No-till. Rates of SON accrual ranged from 64.7 to 0.8 kg N ha –1 y –1 in the order Alfalfa ≥ Early successional > Reduced input and Biologically based ≥ Poplar > No-till and Conifer > Mid-successional systems. Pyrogenic C levels in the Conventional, Early, and Late successional systems were similar despite 17 years of annual burning in the Early successional system (~ 15 % of SOC to 50 cm, on average, and ~40 % of SOC from 50 to 100 cm). Results underscore the importance of cover crops, perennial crops, and no-till options for sequestering whole profile C in intensively managed croplands.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Agroecosystem model simulations reveal spatial variability in relative productivity in biomass sorghum and maize in Iowa, USA

Biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is an annual C 4 grass that has emerged as a candidate bioenergy crop but has not been widely grown in the United States. Corn (Zea mays L.), another annual C 4 grass, has been produced on a large scale in the United States for biofuels. Iowa leads the nation in both corn and ethanol production. The high productivity of corn in Iowa creates the research question: could biomass sorghum be as or more productive than corn in the state in terms of bioenergy? Efforts to use crop models to fill the gaps left by field experimentation on biomass sorghum have also been limited thus far. To address our research question, we collected biophysical data on biomass sorghum grown in Iowa for two growing seasons, used them to develop a biomass sorghum module in an agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS), and predict the potential performance of biomass sorghum across Iowa compared to maize. Despite dry conditions in 2019 and 2020, average biomass sorghum yields were 17.20 Mg ha –1 . By comparison, average corn aboveground biomass was higher in 2020 (22.02 Mg ha –1 ). Soil cores indicated average belowground biomass of 1.46 Mg ha –1 , with roots concentrated near the surface (73% of biomass above 50 cm in a 1 m core). When biomass sorghum model parameters were calibrated with measured values, model output was in close agreement with measured biomass (slope = 0.932, R 2 = 0.91) and evapotranspiration (slope = 0.757, R 2 = 0.64). Subsequent regional simulations revealed a notable latitudinal gradient in biomass sorghum yield, with a strong linear relationship between yield and seasonal growing degree-days (R 2 = 0.89). When these yields were compared to simulated corn aboveground biomass yields, only 3.4% of the state had biomass sorghum yields that were significantly higher than corn. This number was reduced to 0.3% when comparing the crops in terms of energy ethanol yield. Thus, we conclude biomass sorghum must be improved to be competitive with corn as an annual biofuel crop in Iowa. This study provides a baseline against which to compare advancements in sorghum breeding for biomass and stress tolerance in Iowa.

Agro-IBIS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of eastern gamagrass as dual-purpose complementary bioenergy and forage feedstock to switchgrass

Switchgrass (SG) is considered a model bioenergy crop and a warm-season perennial grass (WSPG) that traditionally served as forage feedstock in the United States. To avoid the sole dependence on SG for bioenergy production, evaluation of other crops to diversify the pool of feedstock is needed. We conducted a 3-year field experiment evaluating eastern gamagrass (GG), another WSPG, as complementary feedstock to SG in one- and two-cut systems, with or without intercropping with crimson clover or hairy vetch, and under different nitrogen (N) application rates. Our results showed that GG generally produced lower biomass (by 29.5%), theoretical ethanol potential (TEP, by 2.8%), and theoretical ethanol yield (TEY, by 32.9%) than corresponding SG under the same conditions. However, forage quality measures, namely acid detergent fiber (ADF), crude protein (CP), and elements P, K, Ca, and Mg were significantly higher in GG than those in SG. Nitrogen fertilizer significantly enhanced biomass (by 1.54 Mg ha -1 ), lignin content (by 2.10 g kg -1 ), and TEY (787.12 L ha -1 ) in the WSPGs compared to unfertilized treatments. Intercropping with crimson clover or hairy vetch did not significantly increase biomass of the WSPGs, or TEP and TEY in unfertilized plots. This study demonstrated that GG can serve as a complementary crop to SG and could be used as a dual-purpose crop for bioenergy and forage feedstock in farmers' rotations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Genetic Variation in Zea mays Influences Microbial Nitrification and DeNitrification in Conventional Agroecosystems

Nitrogenous fertilizers provide a short-lived benefit to crops in agroecosystems, but stimulate nitrification and denitrification, processes that result in nitrate pollution, N2O production, and reduced soil fertility. Recent advances in plant microbiome science suggest that genetic variation in plants can modulate the composition and activity of rhizosphere N-cycling microorganisms. Here we attempted to determine whether genetic variation exists in Zea mays for the ability to influence the rhizosphere nitrifier and denitrifier microbiome under “real-world” conventional agricultural conditions. To capture an extensive amount of genetic diversity within maize we grew and sampled the rhizosphere microbiome of a diversity panel of germplasm that included ex-PVP inbreds ( Z. mays ssp. mays ), ex-PVP hybrids ( Z. mays ssp. may s), and teosinte ( Z. mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis ). From these samples, we characterized the microbiome, a suite of microbial genes involved in nitrification and denitrification and carried out N-cycling potential assays. Here we are showing that populations/genotypes of a single species can vary in their ecological interaction with denitrifers and nitrifers. Some hybrid and teosinte genotypes supported microbial communities with lower potential nitrification and potential denitrification activity in the rhizosphere, while inbred genotypes stimulated/did not inhibit these N-cycling activities. These potential differences translated to functional differences in N2O fluxes, with teosinte plots producing less GHG than maize plots. Taken together, these results suggest that Zea genetic variation can lead to changes in N-cycling processes that result in N leaching and N2O production, and thereby are selectable targets for crop improvement. Understanding the underlying genetic variation contributing to belowground microbiome N-cycling into our conventional agricultural system could be useful for sustainability.

Nitrogen↗
DOE OSTI2025

TGCM: (T)rait, (G)ene, and (C)rop Growth (M)odel Directed Targeted Gene Characterization in Sorghum (Final Technical Report)

Understanding which genes control important crop traits could help scientists develop better bioenergy and food crops more efficiently. However, plant genomes contain tens of thousands of genes, and testing each one individually is expensive and time-consuming. This project developed computational tools to predict which genes are most likely to matter, allowing researchers to focus their efforts where they will have the greatest impact. This project developed and validated integrated approaches combining machine learning, quantitative genetics, and crop growth modeling to improve the efficiency of functional gene characterization in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a critical bioenergy and food security crop. The research addressed a fundamental challenge in plant biology: the majority of genes in plant genomes lack experimentally validated functions, making it difficult to prioritize which genes to study using resource-intensive reverse genetics approaches.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Loamy sand soil approaches organic carbon saturation after 37 years of conservation tillage

Conservation tillage is reported to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) contents, but long-term (>30 yr) field results quantifying the responses in Coastal Plain Ultisols are sparse. The distribution, accumulation, and topsoil storage of SOC and TN after 37 yr of crop production using conventional (CvT) or conservation tillage (CnT) on a Norfolk loamy sand (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic, Typic Kandiudults) were quantified. Soil samples were collected annually from the 0-5-, 5-10-, and 10-15-cm depth increments beneath corn (Zea mays L.), soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) crops. Overall, SOC and TN accumulation in the 0-5-cm depth were highest for Norfolk soil under CnT. Focusing on total long-term changes for the 0-15-cm sampling depth beneath various corn crops shows that CnT and CvT sequestered 24.7 and 21.4 Mg C ha -1 , respectively. Between 1978 and 2016, there was a highly significant (P < .0001) exponential increase in SOC within the top 5-cm soil depth. However, the exponential curves began to plateau suggesting the Norfolk topsoil was approaching its organic carbon (OC) storage capacity. These field measurements strongly indicate that additional topsoil SOC increases with current tillage and crop management practices are limited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The genetic architecture of biomechanical traits in sorghum

Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench is the fifth most commonly grown cereal crop worldwide with unrivaled drought tolerance compared with other cereal crops. Drought and heat tolerance and high biomass yield potential make sorghum a promising bioenergy crop. However, stem lodging is a significant problem that results in substantial yield losses. Stem biomechanical traits influence the mechanical stability of crops and breeding for desirable biomechanical traits may result in improved lodging resistance. In this study, we report the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) for stem mechanical and morphological traits in three recombinant inbred line (RIL; populations from Tx623/Rio, Tx623/Della, and Tx631/Della) crosses between elite grain and sweet sorghum parents. The genetic architecture of stem biomechanical traits in the three RIL populations is multigenic and pleiotropic. Additionally, eight QTL affecting mechanical and morphological traits were detected; two main effects of these QTL were consistently found in all populations and colocated with previously identified dwarfing genes Dw1 and Dw3. These results indicate that dwarfing genes affect the mechanical properties of sorghum stems and their lodging resistance, while also having demonstrable effects on stem morphology. The identification of these QTL provides new opportunities for improving stem lodging resistance via genomics-assisted breeding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying biomass yield potential of tetra, hexa, and octoploid prairie cordgrass populations grown on marginal lands

As the demand for renewable energy sources with reduced carbon emissions to the atmosphere increases, bioenergy crops remain an attractive alternative to fossil fuels. Another appeal of bioenergy crops is the potential utilization of marginal lands not suitable for food crops. Prairie cordgrass is a perennial warm season polyploid grass species being considered as a bioenergy crop that also exhibits a high tolerance for salinity and flooding. The ploidy level of prairie cordgrass has previously been suggested to correlate with agronomic traits. However, little is known about the agricultural performance of prairie cordgrass on marginal lands and if a correlation of ploidy level to stress tolerance exists. In this experiment, the productivity of tetraploids, hexaploids, and octoploids was investigated when grown on three different marginal sites including waterlogged, saline, and low-nutrient gravelly soils. Here we found that prairie cordgrass populations annually produced dry biomass on a wet marginal site comparable to normal cropland. However, the productivity was remarkedly decreased at both a salt-affected site and a limestone mine reclamation site. We were unable to conclude that different ploidy levels affected the biomass yield of prairie cordgrass grown under abiotic stress. However, there was a differential response of populations to various types of marginal sites. Finally, these results indicate potential genetic resources for developing breeding targets and identifying mechanisms of abiotic stress tolerance. Moreover, we highlight the need to generate diverse ploidy levels of prairie cordgrass in the same genetic backgrounds for future testing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changes in soil pore structure generated by the root systems of maize , sorghum and switchgrass affect in situ N 2 O emissions and bacterial denitrification

Due to the heterogeneous nature of soil pore structure, processes such as nitrification and denitrification can occur simultaneously at microscopic levels, making prediction of small-scale nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in the field notoriously difficult. We assessed N 2 O+N 2 emissions from soils under maize (Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and energy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), three potential bioenergy crops in order to identify the importance of different N 2 O sources to microsite production, and relate N 2 O source differences to crop-associated differences in pore structure formation. The combination of isotopic surveys of N 2 O in the field during one growing season and X-ray computed tomography (CT) enabled us to link results from isotopic mappings to soil structural properties. Further, our methodology allowed us to evaluate the potential for in situ N 2 O suppression by biological nitrification inhibition (BNI) in energy sorghum. Our results demonstrated that the fraction of N 2 O originating from bacterial denitrification and reduction of N 2 O to N 2 is largely determined by the volume of particulate organic matter occluded within the soil matrix and the anaerobic soil volume. Bacterial denitrification was greater in switchgrass than in the annual crops, related to changes in pore structure caused by the coarse root system. This led to high N-loses through N 2 emissions in the switchgrass system throughout the season a novel finding given the lack of data in the literature for total denitrification. Isotopic mapping indicated no differences in N 2 O-fluxes or their source processes between maize and energy sorghum that could be associated with the release of BNI by the investigated sorghum variety. The results of this research show how differences in soil pore structures among cropping systems can determine both N 2 O production via denitrification and total denitrification N losses in situ.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a field-deployable qPCR assay for real-time pest monitoring in algal cultivation systems

Outdoor cultivation is commonly used to produce algal biomass for a variety of bioproducts including food, feed, fuel, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals. Outdoor cultivation ponds are highly susceptible to pest pressures that may lead to periods of low productivity or even entire loss of the algal crop. Consequently, there is a need for rapid, real-time tracking of pests for early intervention to mitigate crop loss. In this work, we describe the development of a field deployable, low-cost qPCR assay for detecting both known and novel pests of a farmed eukaryotic alga species, Nannochloropsis sp. We performed a proximity guided metagenome deconvolution approach (ProxiMeta™) to discover novel pests that temporally correspond to periods of reduced pond productivity. This approach provided high-quality metagenome assemblies that were used to design qPCR probes to detect specific pests of interest. The portable qPCR assay, designed to be deployed at remote field locations, enables low-cost surveillance with a rapid (2 h) turn-around time. Frequent sampling allows for early detection and prompts intervention strategies to remedy infected ponds to minimize crop loss. The qPCR assay was used to successfully detect a known predatory bacterium within the order Bdellovibrionales both in the lab and at a remote field location. Furthermore, we assembled the genome of two novel, site-specific pests in the Saprospiraceae family and successfully designed qPCR probes that differentially detected their presence in two different pond locations. Ultimately, this assay has the potential to monitor multiple pests simultaneously and tailor targets to match likely pest infections that differ across geographical locations, helping to mitigate crop loss on a large scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rethinking agrivoltaic incentive programs: A science-based approach to encourage practical design solutions

Agrivoltaic systems are promising solutions to address global food and energy challenges by combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics. However, the lack of appropriate regulations to define and guide their implementation constrains the growth of agrivoltaic systems in the U.S. This study uses a shading and radiation tool to evaluate an existing agrivoltaic incentive program that defines agrivoltaic designs based on shading reduction limits and panel height requirements. Our analysis indicates that structuring policy requirements around shading, and not light availability, may lead to an underestimation of crop suitability by neglecting diffuse radiation. Furthermore, we show that agrivoltaic systems can avoid increasing panel height if policy acknowledges use-case scenarios where farming only occurs between rows. In light of these insights, this study proposes two key policy recommendations: (1) benchmark crop suitability based on daily light integral (DLI) requirements for a shade-intolerant crop selected to represent a prevalent crop in the region, and (2) include an incentive scenario where agriculture is only required between rows. Furthermore, these two recommendations can potentially incentivize designs that are practical and closer in cost to conventional solar farms, thereby accelerating the adoption of cost-effective agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microalgae as a future food source

One of the key challenges that we face in the 21st century is the need to feed an ever-increasing human population with increasingly limited natural resources. Even today it is estimated that roughly 1 out of 9 people in the world are undernourished, of which the most important factor is protein-energy malnutrition. By establishing microalgae as a new food and feed platform, we have the opportunity to increase the supply of these essential products to address global demands in a more efficient and environmentally sustainable way. Many types of algae are nutritionally complete foods, their yields outperform most plant crops, and there is a growing set of tools to develop improved strains of algae. Similar improvements were achieved in traditional crops through thousands of years of breeding and strain selection, whereas with the newest genetic engineering tools and advanced strain selection techniques, similar changes can be implemented in microalgae in just a few years. Here we describe different strategies that could be used to enhance the nutritional content, productivity, and organoleptic traits of algae to help drive development of this new crop. Clearly developing more efficient, sustainable, and nutritious foods and feed would be an enormous benefit for the planet, and algae represents an opportunity to develop a new crop that would complement traditional agriculture, and one that could potential result in a more efficient means to meet the world's food and feed supply.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-based modeling to evaluate the effects of harvesting biomass and hunting on ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ) populations

As the US strives to divest from fossil fuels, dedicated energy crops have increased in popularity because of their potential to serve as a renewable source of transportation fuel and biomass-generated electricity. Whereas the impacts of crop agriculture on biodiversity have been well-documented, less is known about the potential impacts that growing bioenergy crops could have on wildlife. Here we look specifically at the ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) and how pheasant populations may be influenced by growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. We explored effects of temporal harvest strategies at the field scale on biomass yield and pheasant population size. To investigate, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates ring-necked pheasants, tractors, hunters, and vegetation classes. One such vegetation class is land that is enrolled in a Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) plan specifically targeting pheasant conservation. Using this ABM, we assessed four different landscapes—corn-dominated, CRP-dominated, grassland-dominated, and mixed landscape—under strategies that varied the time of harvest. We also used ecological valuation to compare scenario outcomes from an economic perspective. We determined that biomass yield and pheasant population size were sensitive to harvesting times. Our scenarios totaled between ~$931,000 (minimum) and $3.8 million (maximum) over all landscapes, though on average harvesting in late spring generated the most value ($2.45 million) and harvesting in fall was a close second in terms of profitability ($2.39 million).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗