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DOE OSTI2024

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 11: Summary and Path Forward

The 2024 State of the Science report has brought together the most up-to-date information on potential environmental effects of marine renewable energy (MRE) development on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes, as well as social and economic systems, using information that is publicly available as well as expert input. The report has been reviewed by over 56 experts. The reviewers provided in excess of one thousand comments during the drafting of the report that have been addressed in this version. The OES-Environmental country representatives from the 16 participating countries helped to scope the entirety of the report and provided valuable contributions to all chapters. The input from these contributors and reviewers has resulted in the most complete compendium of research and monitoring findings possible. While there is new and exciting research underway that should further illuminate the risks of MRE stressor-receptor interactions in the near future, suppositions and incomplete results from unpublished studies were not included in order to maintain the integrity, and decrease the uncertainty, of the messages in this report

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fossil Fuel Transitions Framework: Case Studies of the Decision-Making Process for Energy and Economic Development Pathways

Each community is unique, and transitions must be tailored to local and national contexts, with recognition that access to financing is a key differentiator between wealthy and low-to-middle income countries. This analysis examines six community fossil fuel transitions in two different country contexts to provide insights on inclusive processes and decision-making criteria that bring forth positive outcomes for the communities. In both the United States and Chile, a coordination mechanism is established across government agencies and the importance of stakeholder engagement is recognized. In many cases, the government, local community groups, and electric utility or industry players have a critical role in transition planning and support.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

NA-22 Quarterly Report: IST for Extended Deterrence (Q4FY24)

Department of Energy (DOE) scientists have long enjoyed technical collaboration with Japanese colleagues – valuing their technical and scientific prowess in materials science and engineering, large-scale, scientific computing, and many other areas. In particular, NNSA’s laboratories are attractive partners for this effort because they have a heritage of performing high quality, basic research; they work with an awareness of the dual use nature of emerging science and technology; and, importantly, they work with deep national security sensibilities through engagement with NNSA and other national security mission responsibilities. Other DOE laboratories with significant national security bona fides are also significant collaborators. In FY23 a Trilateral Leaders Summit was convened at Camp David. The DOE was given responsibility for “Trilateral National Laboratories Cooperation: The United States, Japan, and the ROK will drive new trilateral cooperation between the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratories and counterpart laboratories—supported by a budget of at least $6 million—to advance knowledge, strengthen scientific collaboration, and spearhead innovation in support of the three countries’ shared interests. Scientists and innovators from the three countries will advance collaborative projects on priority critical and emerging technology areas; potential areas of cooperation include advanced computing, artificial intelligence, materials research, and climate and earthquake modeling among other technology areas.”

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Desert-Urban SysTem IntegratEd AtmospherIc Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) in the Southwestern United States

Phoenix, Arizona, is the fifth-largest city in the United States with about 1.6 million residents. It is also considered to be the hottest major city in the country, having set a record of 31 consecutive days with temperatures above 110 F (43 C) in summer 2023. Phoenix depends on the Colorado River for over a third of its water supply, but there are questions about how much water will eventually be available to serve the rapidly growing metropolitan area, especially in such extreme heat. Current earth system models struggle to accurately capture precipitation in the Southwestern United States, especially in relation to the summertime North American Monsoon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Clean Energy Revolving Loan Funds: International Experience [Slides]

Tunisia’s Energy Transition Fund (FTE), created in 2013, was established to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in the public and private sectors. To overcome financing challenges related to the energy transition, Tunisia’s National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME) seeks both to strengthen available financial resources and to develop innovative financing structures. Revolving Loan Funds (RLFs) are one such innovative financing structure, used by countries around the world to foster the development of distributed clean energy projects. This report aims to inform policy makers and various stakeholders on the opportunity to design an RLF by drawing on successful experiences from other countries. Specifically, this report provides analytical support for discussions with ANME and its partners to develop an RLF in the context of Tunisia. It outlines the 12 essential steps for establishing a RLF and includes detailed case studies demonstrating successful RLF implementation across various contexts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shared and Ownership Mobility Technologies in the US: Data Availability and Usage Trends

This report supports the vision for a more sustainable transportation future by summarizing and analyzing the latest data on new mobility technologies, including ridesharing, shared and privately owned bikes, e-bikes, and scooters that have emerged over the past two decades. Having access to accurate and current data that is representative of new mobility systems and individual usage of these systems across different parts of the country is critical for researchers, city and regional planning professionals, and current and potential industry technology developers to better understand and forecast usage trends both nationwide as well as across different existing and potential future markets across the country. Building on the previous study published in 2022, this report incorporates the latest available market and usage data on new mobility technologies and compares usage by Chicago and New York City demographic characteristics. Moreover, this report includes recent developments and insights on privately owned micromobility technologies. Our analysis found that more downtown areas in Chicago show high per capita usage for all three modes than in the previous study, likely due to the full launch of shared e-scooter systems citywide in 2022. Notably, the majority of high shared mobility usage is concentrated in high-income, densely populated downtown areas in Chicago, which also have good public transit access. In contrast, TNC and bikeshare usage hotspots in central Manhattan are more widely distributed, though also appear to be shaped by the geography of the public transit system. Analysis of privately owned micromobility shows that the greatest energy savings occurred when e-bikes replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (i.e., gasoline-powered cars driven alone). Based on the literature review and analysis results, we also make recommendations for supporting the development of both shared and privately owned micromobility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI - Final Technical Report

The objective of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) project was to implement a collaborative Regional Initiative to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the Midwest-Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic areas of the United States. This area encompasses a 20-state region with much of the country’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The MRCI project is co-led by Battelle Memorial Institute (Battelle) in Columbus, Ohio, and the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) in Champaign, Illinois, and benefitted from the experience these organizations have acquired over the past 10-plus years leading two Department of Energy (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs): the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP), led by Battelle, and the Midwest Geologic Sequestration Consortium (MGSC), led by the ISGS.

CCS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Euro-Deterrent: Analysis of Proposals for a European Nuclear Arsenal (CNSIS Paper)

The idea of a “Euro-deterrent”—a nuclear arsenal under European control and mandated to protect multiple European countries—has been proposed many times as a means for European self-defense independent of United States security guarantees under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This paper examines not only the concept’s multiple guises, but the reasons for their failure. It will address the idea of a Franco-British umbrella, a French umbrella, a European “pool”, and the nuclear arsenal of a hypothetical “united Europe”. Reasons for rejection largely fall into three categories: sovereignty concerns, credibility gaps, and a desire to preserve existing norms and structures. This paper concludes that the Euro-deterrent will likely remain only hypothetical unless the US unequivocally signals its intent to withdraw its nuclear umbrella from Europe, thereby forcing European countries to build a new defense arrangement.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community Choice Aggregation(CCA) Data Collection Webinar for Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market Report (2024 Data) [Slides]

We have subcontracted LEAN Energy US, to help us improve our CCA data collection effort for the Annual Voluntary Energy Markets Data Report. LEAN Energy US (Local Energy Aggregation Network) is a national 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to accelerating the country's transition to clean and renewable power, supporting competition and customer choice in the energy sector, and maintaining affordable electricity rates. We work in partnership with a range of organizations to actively support the formation and operational success of Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) programs around the country. This webinar, hosted in partnership with LEAN Energy US, is intended to introduce their members to our data collection effort and encourage CCAs in their network to participate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Site Selection Efforts for Deep Geological Disposal

This report discusses international experiences from site selection of deep geological repositories (DGR) for radioactive waste disposal. Based on experiences from three countries with recent or ongoing site selections, the report describes different site selection approaches and summarizes lessons learned. The German and Swiss programs are two slightly different examples of one end of the spectrum of potential siting approaches: Starting with the entire country, a technically based downselection is performed to select the repository site. The Canadian program is an example of the other end of the spectrum: Here, the program started with an extensive engagement program with Canadians to collaboratively develop a socially acceptable and technically sound national approach for the long-term management of used nuclear fuel. This was followed by the launch of a collaboratively developed consent-based siting process designed to seek an informed and willing host with suitable sites, considering both technical and community well-being site requirements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme Decentralized Water Treatment: Exploring the Future of Premise-Scale Water Treatment and Reuse

Access to an adequate quantity of piped water and management of wastewater produced in homes and businesses is an expectation of city dwellers in wealthy countries, and an aspiration for many people living in rapidly developing cities in low- and middle-income countries. It is also crucial to public health and protection of the environment. For well over a century, municipal drinking water provision and wastewater management have been made possible by large investments in centralized systems in which fresh water passes through a small number of drinking water treatment plants before being distributed through a vast underground pipe network to buildings throughout the city (Sedlak 2014). After it is used, wastewater is collected in underground sewers that route it to treatment plants prior to its discharge to the environment. In some water-stressed cities, a fraction of the treated wastewater undergoes additional treatment prior to reuse. This recycled water often is returned to users through another dedicated water distribution system, which is designated in many places with purple pipes (non-potable water reuse). Alternatively, treated wastewater may be subjected to advanced treatment (e.g., reverse osmosis followed by advanced oxidation) prior to being returned to the drinking water supply (potable water reuse).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human fatalities resulting from wild pig attacks worldwide – 2000-2019

Although reported to be rare, human fatalities resulting from wild pig (Sus scrofa) attacks do occur. Toward a better understanding of patterns in fatal wild pig attacks, we synthesized worldwide reports of wild pig attacks on humans between 2000 and 2019. We documented 163 separate reports of fatal wild pig attacks that resulted in 172 human deaths. On average, 8.6 human deaths occurred annually due to wild pig attacks during those 2 decades. The majority of fatal attacks resulted in a single human death; however, there were 6 cases in which an individual fatal attack resulted in 2–4 human deaths. These fatal wild pig attacks occurred in 29 countries, mostly within the wild pig’s native global range. Fatal attacks primarily occurred under non-hunting circumstances and involved seemingly unprovoked wild pigs. Under hunting circumstances, fatal attacks primarily involved provoked or wounded wild pigs. Fatal attacks typically involved a solitary wild pig, with 12% involving multiple pigs. Solitary pigs involved in fatal attacks were typically large boars that in most attacks exhibited defensive behaviors, although we discovered 7 attacks during which the pig’s behaviors appeared to be predatory. Three fatal attacks were initially investigated as homicides. Overall, victims of fatal wild pig attacks were between 3 and 85 years old and were traveling on foot when the attack occurred. The majority of victims of fatal attacks were adult (20–59 years old), male, traveling on foot, and working in isolation. Among all fatal attacks, 50% identified the cause of death, which included exsanguination/hemorrhagic shock, severe injury, heart attack, craniocerebral injury, severe injury/disembowelment/intestinal prolapse, and toxemia/septicemia. Fatal wild pig attacks occurred primarily in rural areas, with fatal attacks 390% more likely to occur in rural areas with large populations and at least 45% forested and agricultural cover. The greater the rural human population size within a country is, the greater the number of fatal wild pig attacks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Early Inference of Nuclear Technology-Directed Research Activities of Authors from Scientific Publications

Nuclear research articles can provide information about early nuclear proliferation indicators such as influential research entities and technology capability levels of a country, but detection of nuclear activities typically occurs after they have started. We investigate the extent to which nuclear research articles can be used to infer whether a research entity will acquire or develop a nuclear technology before it happens. Early detection of nuclear proliferation or technology development indicators from data is challenging due to partial observability, sparse and unlabeled information, and confounding signals from multiple concurrent activities. This paper presents the early detection problem as a sequential decision-making, goal inference problem, where the objective is to characterize and predict an individual’s, organization’s, or a country’s intent (unobserved goal-directed behavior) towards developing a nuclear capability from partially observed sequences of their research publications, using inverse reinforcement learning and Bayesian goal inference methods. A computational framework is presented, and its application demonstrated using 29,196 Scopus records for a case study related to a civil nuclear capability. The case study results serve as a proof-of-concept demonstration for inference of technology-directed research activity of authors who publish in the nuclear domain. The inference method, combined with advanced computing, may be used to assess and monitor activities pertaining to early developmental stages of a nuclear technology or capability, which in turn can help to identify and prioritize activities with nuclear proliferation potential for further investigation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated HIV-1 Consensus Sequences Change but Stay Within Similar Distance From Worldwide Samples

HIV consensus sequences are used in various bioinformatic, evolutionary, and vaccine related research. Since the previous HIV-1 subtype and CRF consensus sequences were constructed in 2002, the number of publicly available HIV-1 sequences have grown exponentially, especially from non-EU and US countries. Here, we reconstruct 90 new HIV-1 subtype and CRF consensus sequences from 3,470 high-quality, representative, full genome sequences in the LANL HIV database. While subtypes and CRFs are unevenly spread across the world, in total 89 countries were represented. For consensus sequences that were based on at least 20 genomes, we found that on average 2.3% (range 0.8–10%) of the consensus genome site states changed from 2002 to 2021, of which about half were nucleotide state differences and the rest insertions and deletions. Interestingly, the 2021 consensus sequences were shorter than in 2002, and compared to 4,674 HIV-1 worldwide genome sequences, the 2021 consensuses were somewhat closer to the worldwide genome sequences, i.e., showing on average fewer nucleotide state differences. Some subtypes/CRFs have had limited geographical spread, and thus sampling of subtypes/CRFs is uneven, at least in part, due to the epidemiological dynamics. Thus, taken as a whole, the 2021 consensus sequences likely are good representations of the typical subtype/CRF genome nucleotide states. The new consensus sequences are available at the LANL HIV database.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗