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March 2011 Physical Indicators Workshop Summary Report

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) convened a workshop on Physical Climate Indicators from 29-30 March 2011, as part of a series on Monitoring Climate Change and its Impacts . The overarching goal of this workshop was to identify a few broad categories of potential physical climate indicators using a set of priorities developed by the NCA, and to provide a clear justification for how they would inform the Nation about climate change. Additional goals included providing input on the overall NCA framework for selecting the indicators and suggesting methodologies to construct indicators. Although one of the workshop goals was to address the status of current observational networks to support indicators, this was not a main focus of any single discussion. However, participants agreed with the NCA indicator vision that high quality data were needed to develop indicators, and generally focused on identifying indicator categories that current observation systems could support. The nearly 60 participants, primarily from Federal agencies, received a white paper in advance of the workshop that detailed the NCA vision for a coordinated suite of climate-related physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The intent of these national indicators of change is to develop a way to evaluate and communicate over time both the rate of change in impacts and the capacity to respond to climate drivers. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. An initial framework was provided to workshop participants to ensure that everyone understood the audience, scope, and purpose of the indicators. A common lexicon was defined since indicator terminology varies widely. In addition, several potential approaches to grouping or categorizing the indicators were presented. Participants spent most of their time in small breakout groups with facilitators, working to address a common set of questions. The workshop was structured to start with the broadest issue and then focus down as the workshop progressed. The first breakout therefore solicited comments on the NCA indicator framework, followed by discussion of the potential approaches to organizing the physical climate indicators. Once several approaches were identified, the groups then worked to define specific measurements, or types of measurements, that could be used to create the indicators.

Roberts, Brent↗

Africa Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Capacity Building Utility-Scale Storage: BESS Valuation, Tariffs, and Remuneration [Slides]

Utility-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are key to enhancing grid reliability, integrating renewable energy, and providing operational flexibility. Designing effective valuation, remuneration, and tariff frameworks is essential to ensure both system benefits and financial viability for developers. This presentation outlines a structured methodology for evaluating BESS projects, covering policy and legal considerations, cost and revenue analysis, benchmarking, financial sensitivity, and risk assessment, while ensuring alignment with public interest. It also explores valuation of multiple storage services - bulk energy, ancillary services, and infrastructure support - and monetization strategies through capacity payments, energy tariffs, tolling, arbitrage, and non-wires alternative payments. Technical factors, including round-trip efficiency, degradation, and storage duration, are integrated into financial and operational modeling to quantify both system-wide and project-level benefits. Through case studies and simulation-based approaches, this framework provides regulators, utilities, and developers with practical guidance for tariff design, payment structures, and investment decisions, maximizing the economic and societal value of BESS deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Spacecraft Materials Selector: An Artificial Intelligence System for Preliminary Design Trade Studies, Materials Assessments, and Estimates of Environments Present

Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.

Pippin, H. G.↗

Development and Application of an Integrated Approach toward NASA Airspace Systems Research

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Airspace Systems Program is contributing air traffic management research in support of the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Contributions support research and development needs provided by the interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO). These needs generally call for integrated technical solutions that improve system-level performance and work effectively across multiple domains and planning time horizons. In response, the Airspace Systems Program is pursuing an integrated research approach and has adapted systems engineering best practices for application in a research environment. Systems engineering methods aim to enable researchers to methodically compare different technical approaches, consider system-level performance, and develop compatible solutions. Systems engineering activities are performed iteratively as the research matures. Products of this approach include a demand and needs analysis, system-level descriptions focusing on NASA research contributions, system assessment and design studies, and common systemlevel metrics, scenarios, and assumptions. Results from the first systems engineering iteration include a preliminary demand and needs analysis; a functional modeling tool; and initial system-level metrics, scenario characteristics, and assumptions. Demand and needs analysis results suggest that several advanced concepts can mitigate demand/capacity imbalances for NextGen, but fall short of enabling three-times current-day capacity at the nation s busiest airports and airspace. Current activities are focusing on standardizing metrics, scenarios, and assumptions, conducting system-level performance assessments of integrated research solutions, and exploring key system design interfaces.

Barhydt, Richard↗

Transportation and Systems Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. An analyst using NGSAM has the ability to define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions on and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams had been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM, as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Coastal California Water Resources: Assessing Estuarine Ecosystems in California for Improved Wetland Monitoring and Management

Estuaries are vital ecosystems that serve important ecological functions. The Marine Life Protection Act aims to protect these ecosystems by establishing a network of marine protected areas (MPAs), in part by requiring regulatory agencies to monitor estuary extent and health. However, California has 23 estuarine MPAs (EMPAs) and approximately 440,000 total acres of estuarine habitat and, therefore, ground-based data collection can be time and resource intensive. This project used remotely sensed data to examine the health of California EMPAs in an effort to supplement ground-based field measurements. Specifically using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), this project assessed mouth state, inundation extent, turbidity, Chlorophyll-a, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) for estuaries observable with these sensors. The Normalized Water Difference Index (NDWI) from Sentinel-2 MSI was capable of capturing estuary mouth state and inundation extent. Meanwhile, Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI indicated a capacity to capture differences in water quality metrics coinciding with changes to estuary mouth state using algorithms applied in Google Earth Engine (GEE). The GEE California Estuary Assessment (CEA) tools will allow project partners to better monitor and understand estuarine dynamics and health.

Karina Alvarez↗

A High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Fuel Transportation Concept

The uranium 235U enrichment commonly used in fuel production for U.S. light water nuclear reactors typically does not exceed 5 wt%. In contrast, many of the currently investigated advanced reactor concepts demand fuel with higher enrichments. This includes high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), characterized by a 235U enrichment of 5 to 20 wt%. The necessity of HALEU transportation in the fuel production cycle leads to new challenges caused by various technical and regulatory hurdles. Current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission–approved transportation package designs for UF6 with enrichments above 5 wt% provide relatively small payloads [=116 kg (250 lb)]. Furthermore, in accordance with 10 CFR 71.55, package design activities for fissile material enriched above 5 wt% need to consider water infiltration in the containment as part of the criticality safety evaluations. This study presents a transportation package concept for HALEU advanced nuclear reactor fuel with a significantly higher payload of up to 376 kg (830 lb) of fissile material per package and up to 1881 kg (4149 lb) of HALEU per legal weight truck. The anticipated chemical form of the transported material is UO2 downblended from available highly enriched uranium. The concept utilizes a combination of existing transportation packaging, 18 inner canisters, and a novel basket design that includes a borated aluminum flux trap. Criticality and shielding evaluations; fundamental structural, confinement, and thermal assessments; and studies on package operations are presented. The results of this study build significant confidence in the technical feasibility of a high-capacity HALEU transportation package concept while demonstrating the concept’s potential to meet U.S. regulatory requirements.

Eidelpes, Elmar↗

PRIMED for the Future: Purposing Raw Intake for Machine Learning-Enabled Detection (Final Report)

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Wadsley Defects and Cation Disorder to Enhance MoNb 12 O 33 Diffusion

Wadsley-Roth (WR) niobates have emerged as high-rate anode materials that can combine rapid ionic diffusion with good electronic conductivity. WR compounds have been defect-enhanced by limited annealing, however, such materials often contain multiple types of defects. In particular, both Wadsley defects (variable block size) and transition metal disorder have the potential to modify transport rates, however the corresponding effects are not well understood mechanistically. Here, MoNb 12 O 33 (MNO) was calcined at two different temperatures to compare a defect-rich condition (MNO-800) with a proximal order-rich condition (MNO-900) as assessed through XRD, XANES, EXAFS, and STEM characterizations. Galvanostatically cycled lithium half cells of MNO-800 exhibited additional capacity (307 mAhg −1 at 0.1C, 4.66% higher) and improved high-rate capacity of 200 mAhg −1 at 10C. ICI-based overpotential analysis identified solid state diffusion as the dominant rate limiting process where MNO-800 correspondingly exhibited ∼3X faster capacity-weighted diffusivity. A machine-learning interatomic potential was trained to density functional theory and then applied with molecular dynamics (MLIP-MD) to examine the possible roles of Wadsley defects and transition metal disorder. For both defect-types, Li was found to populate and activate fast diffusion paths from window sites at lower extents of lithiation as compared to the order-rich model.

defect↗

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aridity and forest age mediate landscape scale patterns of tropical forest resistance to cyclonic storms

Abstract Cyclonic storms, or hurricanes, are expected to intensify as ocean heat energy rises due to climate change. Ecological theory suggests that tropical forest resistance to hurricanes should increase with forest age and wood density. However, most data on hurricane effects on tropical forests come from a limited number of well‐studied long‐term monitoring sites, restricting our capacity to evaluate the resistance of tropical forests to hurricanes across broad environmental gradients. In this study, we assessed whether forest age and aridity mediate the effects of hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra islands. We leveraged functional trait data for 410 tree species, remotely sensed measurements of canopy height and cover, along with data on forest stand characteristics of 180 of 338 forest monitoring plots, each covering an area of 0.067 ha. The plots represent a broad mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient from 701 to 4598 mm and a complex mosaic of forest age from 5 to around 85 years since deforestation. Hurricanes resulted in a 25% increase in basal area mortality rates, a 45% decrease in canopy height and a 21% reduction in canopy cover. These effects intensified with forest age, even after considering proximity to the hurricane path. The links between forest age and hurricane disturbances were likely due the prevalence of tall canopies. Tall forest canopies were strongly linked with low community‐weighted wood density (WD). These characteristics were on average more common in moist and wet forests (MAP >1250 mm). Conversely, dry forests were dominated by short species with high wood density (WD > 0.6 g cm −3 ) and did not show significant increases in basal area mortality rates after the hurricanes. Synthesis . Our findings show that selection towards drought‐tolerant traits across aridity gradients, such as short stature and dense wood, enhances resistance to hurricanes. However, forest age modulated responses to hurricanes, with older forests being less resistant across the islands. This evidence highlights the importance of considering the intricate links between ecological succession and plant function when forecasting tropical forests’ responses to increasingly strong hurricanes.

Vargas G., German↗

Sequential removal of cation/H + exchangers reveals their additive role in elemental distribution, calcium depletion and anoxia tolerance

Multiple Arabidopsis H + /Cation exchangers (CAXs) participate in high-capacity transport into the vacuole. Previous studies have analysed single and double mutants that marginally reduced transport; however, assessing phenotypes caused by transport loss has proven enigmatic. Here, in this study, we generated quadruple mutants (cax1-4: qKO) that exhibited growth inhibition, an 85% reduction in tonoplast-localised H + /Ca transport, and enhanced tolerance to anoxic conditions compared to CAX1 mutants. Leveraging inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF), we demonstrate CAX transporters work together to regulate leaf elemental content: ICP-MS analysis showed that the elemental concentrations in leaves strongly correlated with the number of CAX mutations; SXRF imaging showed changes in element partitioning not present in single CAX mutants and qKO had a 40% reduction in calcium (Ca) abundance. Reduced endogenous Ca may promote anoxia tolerance; wild-type plants grown in Ca-limited conditions were anoxia tolerant. Sequential reduction of CAXs increased mRNA expression and protein abundance changes associated with reactive oxygen species and stress signalling pathways. Multiple CAXs participate in postanoxia recovery as their concerted removal heightened changes in postanoxia Ca signalling. This work showcases the integrated and diverse function of H + /Cation transporters and demonstrates the ability to improve anoxia tolerance through diminishing endogenous Ca levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermodynamics of Uranium Tri-Iodide from Density-Functional Theory

Density-functional theory (DFT) is employed to investigate the thermodynamic and ground-state properties of bulk uranium tri-iodide, UI3. The theory is fully relativistic and electron correlations, beyond the DFT and generalized gradient approximation, are addressed with orbital polarization. The electronic structure indicates anti-ferromagnetism, in agreement with neutron diffraction, with band gaps and a non-metallic system. Furthermore, the formation energy, atomic volume, crystal structure, and heat capacity are calculated in reasonable agreement with experiments, whereas for the elastic constants experimental data are unavailable for comparison. The thermodynamical properties are modeled within a quasi-harmonic approximation and the heat capacity and Gibbs free energy as functions of temperature agree with available calculation of phase diagram (CALPHAD) thermodynamic assessment of the experimental data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals↗

Simulations of Grid-Responsive HVAC Cooling Measures via Ice/PCM storage

This study uses EnergyPlus building energy simulations to assess grid-responsive HVAC cooling measures during peak hours having high electricity price, including: lock the high capacity of a two-speed cooling coil during grid-response hours; and use ice/PCM energy storage to drive a chilled water coil and meet the cooling load, when shut off the main electric cooling coil. Here, the impacts on peak power reductions, energy and utility cost savings, and comfort levels in residential buildings of two U.S. cities were revealed.

Shen, Bo↗

IEA PVPS Task 13 Techno-Economic Study of Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems on Single Axis Trackers

The International Energy Agency PVPS Task 13 has assembled an international team of photovoltaic (PV) researchers from government labs, academia, and industry to study the specific application of bifacial PV modules deployed on tracking systems. This configuration is of particular interest as it has been identified as the PV system design with the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for over 90% of the world [1]. As such, much research, development, and commercial activity are focused on further optimizing this system design for different regions and markets, including field deployment and advanced modeling activities. Despite these efforts, many challenges remain to overcome with this system design. This conference paper will report on several areas the team is working on as part of this project. The first part of this study focuses on extensive interviews with PV tracker companies (we have identified 35) and customers worldwide to identify emerging technology trends, design diversity, market environments, and the reliability and performance of these systems. We will provide a market summary of technologies such as advanced tracking algorithms, methods for dealing with topography within the PV plant, different system configurations and layouts, backside irradiance optimization from albedo enhancement, and ground sculpting. We will also review dual-use applications of tracked bifacial systems, such as Agrivoltaics and Building-Integrated PV. These interviews are underway now, and we will be able to report our initial findings at the conference. The second part of the study focuses on summarizing performance monitoring and evaluation methods, with particular attention to capacity and acceptance testing for such systems. The third part of the study reviews performance modeling and yield assessment methods for these tracked bifacial PV systems. The final part of the study covers reliability and operations, and maintenance data from these systems.

albedo↗

Temporal Changes in Astronauts’ Muscle and Cardiorespiratory Physiology Before, During and After Spaceflight

Background: NASA’s planned space exploration missions will require astronauts to safely perform extravehicular activity (EVA) and to safely egress vehicles in a variety of landing scenarios. Prolonged exposure to spaceflight can diminish tolerance for physical activity, decrease cardiovascular and sensorimotor function, and cause loss of bone mineral density, and reduced muscle mass and strength. Although exercise can mitigate these spaceflight-induced physiological decrements, little is known regarding the time-course of changes in muscle and aerobic performance during spaceflight. Furthermore, these exercise countermeasures are not fully protective. For example, maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk), lower body muscle cross-sectional area, and strength decrease by about 10% to 15% after short- (~ 14 days) and long-duration (~ 6 months) missions on the International Space Station (ISS). Future space missions that are longer in duration and further from Earth will employ exploration vehicles that will have exercise hardware with less robust and more constrained exercise capabilities than of those available on the ISS. Thus, countermeasures will need to be optimized to protect crew health and performance on exploration-class missions that will last up to 3 years. This will require a more detailed understanding of the dynamic effects of spaceflight on human health and performance, and the ability of exercise to protect against this deconditioning, and the interaction of exercise with interrelated factors like nutrition, sleep, and environmental conditions. Methods: We will use standardized research and medical testing protocols previously validated in 1-G and 0-G to quantify the time course and the inter-individual variability of changes in physical performance, including cardiorespiratory fitness, and muscle strength, and endurance, before, during and after spaceflight missions lasting 2 months, 6 months, and 1 year. Additionally, we will use an extrapolation model to predict changes associated with 2–3-year exploration missions. Additionally, we will monitor in-flight exercise, nutrition, and sleep using in-flight assessment tools. Significance: Our testing protocols will provide valuable information for determining time course of change and the interindividual variability of spaceflight-induced deconditioning of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance over the course of spaceflight missions up to and beyond 1 year. This information will be vital to assess whether humans can be physically ready for deep space exploration, such as on a mission to Mars, using current technology, or if additional mitigation strategies are necessary.

countermeasures↗